scholarly journals Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy: A Critical Review from a Finance Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-140
Author(s):  
Winston W. Dou ◽  
Andrew W. Lo ◽  
Ameya Muley ◽  
Harald Uhlig
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
The Government

We provide a critical review of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy at central banks from a finance perspective. We review the history of monetary policy modeling, survey the core monetary models used by major central banks, and construct an illustrative model for those readers who are unfamiliar with the literature. Within this framework, we highlight several important limitations of current models and methods, including the fact that local-linearization approximations omit important nonlinear dynamics, yielding biased impulse-response analysis and parameter estimates. We also propose new features for the next generation of macrofinancial policy models, including a substantial role for the financial sector, the government balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policies; heterogeneity, reallocation, and redistribution effects;the macroeconomic impact of large nonlinear risk premium dynamics; time-varying uncertainty; financial sector and systemic risks; imperfect product market and markups; and further advances in solution, estimation, and evaluation methods for dynamic quantitative structural models.

Analysis of the Analytical Balance Sheet of Central Bank of Republic of Turkey During 2000 - 2009 Period in Terms of Crises

2014 ◽  
pp. 1284-1302
Author(s):  
Yıldız Özkök
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Analytical Balance ◽  
Republic Of Turkey

Today, Central Banks' primary target is to maintain the price stability. In that context, through their monetary policy, they intervene in the money market with different tools. The Analytical Balance Sheet was created upon summing up and offsetting Balance Sheet of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in order to represent specific monetary aggregates. By means of that, CBRT aims to make the balance sheet more understandable and simple. In this chapter, firstly the sub items of the Analytical Balance Sheet are explained; secondly, the economic crises of Turkey during 2000-2009 is mentioned; finally, effects of these crises on the CBRT's Analytical Balance Sheet, changes in monetary aggregates which are Currency Issued, Reserve Money, Monetary Base, and Central Bank's Money, and in this context structure of the monetary policy of the CBRT in this period is analyzed.

Introduction and Overview

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Alternative View ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
The Government

The Introduction describes the main themes and objectives of the book and provides an overview of its content. First, the current dominant view on the origins of central banking is recalled and challenged, and it is outlined what alternative view this book will propose, namely that central banking dates back to before 1800 and that a number of European continental institutions played a major role in its development. Then an overview of the chapters of the book is provided: Chapter 1 restating the currently dominant view on the origins of central banking; Chapter 2 on money issuance; Chapter 3 on the relation with the government; Chapter 4 on lending to the private sector; Chapter 5 on the lender-of-last resort; Chapter 6 on the overall balance sheet of early central banks; and Chapter 7 restating the rehabilitation of early central banking; The annex schematically reviews a total of 25 central banks operating before 1800.

scholarly journals Comparison of effects of expansionary monetary policy in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Boris Fisera ◽  
Jana Kotlebova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Economic Developments

The ongoing process of globalization has affected the way the monetary policy is conducted – and this is especially the case of small open economies, where the economic developments are heavily affected by the developments abroad. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of unconventional monetary policy in two very open economies – Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the post-crisis era – the two rather similar very open economies. We assess the effects of their monetary policies by estimating their impact on the banking sector in both countries. We employ two cointegrating estimators – DOLS and FMOLS, so that we can assess the dynamics of the relationship between the developments of main balance sheet items of the respective central banks and the aggregate bank lending to various sectors of the economy. We do find evidence that unconventional policies of both central banks did lift bank lending – with the effect being stronger in Slovakia and for the QE policies. In both countries, the effect was more pronounced for the bank lending to household sector – specifically on housing related loans. Finally, we do not find evidence that the increasing openness of these two already very open economies affected the transmission of monetary policies into the banking sector.

Moderation Before the Storm

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Current State ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment

This chapter provides an overview of the macroeconomic environment since 2000. The era is broken down into three periods: 2000–2006, 2007–2010, and 2011–present. Warnings of an imminent crisis were present before 2007, but generally they were ignored by self-satisfied policymakers. Pre-crisis, inflation control was the once rising and, seemingly, preeminent monetary policy strategy. A review, both pre- and post-GFC, of a wide variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators is included, with discussion of lesser known variables such as proxies for central bank communication and balance sheet indicators. These clearly enable us to identify interventions by central banks while also highlighting areas of continuing concern. In some respects (e.g. concerns about financial stability), everything has changed post-crisis, but in other respects (e.g. monetary policy strategy) fewer changes are apparent. The chapter concludes by arguing that there are reasons to be apprehensive about the current state of monetary policy and central banking.

scholarly journals Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9229
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Normalization Process

It has been more than a decade since central banks, in the face of the global financial crisis, implemented a set of unconventional initiatives that included a rapid and significant decrease in their main interest rates and an unprecedented balance sheet policy. Thus far, they still have not returned their monetary policy to the pre-crisis framework and have not implemented a normalization process. Currently, a trend of using econometric models in monetary policy for forecasting purposes has been observed. Among these models, Bayesian vector autoregression models (BVAR models) are increasingly being used by central banks. The main aim of this study was to conduct an empirical verification of the BVAR model’s usage for short-term prediction which could then be used for a sustainable (ordered) normalization process for the UK’s monetary policy. This study verifies a research hypothesis which states that the BVAR model might be a useful tool in the Bank of England’s decision-making process regarding the normalization of its monetary policy. Additionally, the cause and effect analysis, observation method, document analysis method, and synthesis method were also considered. The conducted research indicates that a large BVAR model has a significant predictive value for short-term forecasting.

scholarly journals Global Stablecoins: Monetary Policy Implementation Considerations from the U.S. Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (020) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Matthew Malloy ◽  
◽  
David Lowe ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Commercial Banking ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Bank Reserves

This note explores the potential effects of the widespread adoption of a global stablecoin (GSC) on key aggregate financial sector balance sheets in the United States. To do this, we map out cash flows of GSC transactions among financial sector entities using a stylized set of 't-accounts'. By analyzing these individual transactions, we infer aggregate and compositional effects on U.S. commercial banking sector and Federal Reserve balance sheets. Through this lens, we also consider how these balance sheet changes could affect monetary policy implementation, the demand for central bank reserves, and the market for U.S. dollar safe assets.

Risks are high despite Turkey’s policy 'normalisation'

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Government

Significance With the lira at a record low, the Central Bank continued to tighten monetary policy this week, funding the market through competitive one-month repo tenders at rates of around 12.5%. In recent weeks, the government and Central Bank have taken a series of steps to modify the expansionary and in some cases unorthodox policies adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Foreign portfolio investors could shun the Turkish market for some more months, and the risk premium will remain high. Although this year’s annual contraction in GDP, at 3-4%, may be less severe than expected, the recovery may decelerate or be interrupted. The lira may fall further with concerns about foreign debt, forex reserves, budgets, inflation and financial stability persisting into 2021. Given the weak lira, the jobs crisis and high inflation, the government will struggle to persuade the public it has managed the crisis well.

Analysis of the Analytical Balance Sheet of Central Bank of Republic of Turkey During 2000 - 2009 Period in terms of Crises

2013 ◽  
pp. 110-127
Author(s):  
Yildiz Özkök
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Analytical Balance ◽  
Republic Of Turkey

Today, Central Banks’ primary target is to maintain the price stability. In that context, through their monetary policy, they intervene in the money market with different tools. The Analytical Balance Sheet was created upon summing up and offsetting Balance Sheet of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in order to represent specific monetary aggregates. By means of that, CBRT aims to make the balance sheet more understandable and simple. In this chapter, firstly the sub items of the Analytical Balance Sheet are explained; secondly, the economic crises of Turkey during 2000-2009 is mentioned; finally, effects of these crises on the CBRT’s Analytical Balance Sheet, changes in monetary aggregates which are Currency Issued, Reserve Money, Monetary Base, and Central Bank’s Money, and in this context structure of the monetary policy of the CBRT in this period is analyzed.

News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government

2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helge Berger ◽  
Marcel Thum
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Information Policy ◽  
Simple Extension ◽  
Strategic Information ◽  
Future State ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Withholding Information

Abstract Central banks are often considered to be better informed about the present or future state of the economy than the government. A conservative central bank has an incentive to exploit this asymmetry by strategically managing its information policy. Strategic news management will keep the government uncertain about the state of the economy and increase the central bank's leeway for conducting a conservative monetary policy. We show that withholding information from the government is an equilibrium. However, there are also well-defined limits to strategic information policy as the central bank has to distort monetary policy to be in line with its news management. A simple extension of our findings is that, if the government on occasion learns about the bank's true information, it will then overrule the central bank's decision on monetary policy.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL DEREGULATION AND THE BANK LENDING CHANNEL IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-145
Author(s):  
Juda Agung
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Asymmetry Of Information ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
The Government

The dominant role of commercial banks as a source of finance and the considerable asymmetry of information in financial markets in developing countries have raised an argument that the bank lending channel of monetary transmission mechanism would be very important in such countries. This study addresses the issue by investigating empirically whether there are differential effects of monetary policy on banks’ balance sheets, and its implications to the existence of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially since the early 1980s when the government adopted a policy of financial deveculation. We find significant differences of balance sheet behavior across bank clashes in response to a change in monetary policy, consistent with the predictions of the bank lending view. We also found that because of access to foreign funds and the existence of bank loan commitment, the monetary policy was unable to constrain loan supply by the large (state) banks, indicating that the bank lending channel operates through smaller (non-state) banks.

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