scholarly journals Dynamic Discrete GM (1,1) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Urbanization Conflict Events

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ersi Liu ◽  
Qiangqiang Wang ◽  
Xinran Ge ◽  
Wei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Equal Division ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Prediction Theory ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Prediction Result ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Division Number

In the empirical researches, the discrete GM (1,1) model is not always fitted well, and sometimes the forecasting error is large. In order to solve this issue, this study proposes a dynamic discrete GM (1,1) model based on the grey prediction theory and the GM (1,1) model. In this paper, we use the equal division technology to fit the concavity and convexity of the cumulative sequence and then construct two dynamic average values. Based on the dynamic average values, we further develop two dynamic discrete GM (1,1) models and provide the gradual heuristics method to draw the initial equal division number and the dichotomy approach to optimize the equal division number. Finally, based on an empirical analysis of the number of conflict events in the urbanization process in China, we verify that the dynamic discrete GM (1,1) model has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the GM (1,1) model and the discrete GM (1,1) model, and its prediction result is beneficial to the government for prevention and solution of the urbanization conflict events.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Policies and Influencing Factors: The Case of Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Eleni Vangjeli ◽  
Anila Mancka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Monetary and fiscal policies are two policies that the government could use to keep a high level of growth, with a low inflancion. Fiscal policy has its initial impact on the stock market, while monetary policy in market assets. But, given that the goods and active markets are closely interrelated, both policies, monetary as well as fiscal have impact on the economy, increasing the level of product through the reduction of interest rates. In our paper we will show how functioning monetary and fiscal policies. But also in our paper we will analyze the different factors which have affected the economic growth of the country. The focus of our study is the graphical and empirical analysis of economic growth, policies and influencing factors. For the empirical analysis we have used data on the economic growth in Albania for 1996– 2014.

scholarly journals Stakeholders of Voluntary Forest Carbon Offset Projects in China: An Empirical Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Derong Lin ◽  
Yingzhi Lin
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Governance Structure ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Forest Carbon Storage ◽  
Game Situation ◽  
Carbon Offset ◽  
Stakeholder Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
Carbon Offset Projects

Climate change is one of the defining challenges facing the planet. Voluntary forest carbon offset project which has the potential to boost forest carbon storage and mitigate global warming has aroused the global concern. The objective of this paper is to model the game situation and analyze the game behaviors of stakeholders of voluntary forest carbon offset projects in China. A stakeholder model and a Power-Benefit Matrix are constructed to analyze the roles, behaviors, and conflicts of stakeholders including farmers, planting entities, communities, government, and China Green Carbon Foundation. The empirical analysis results show that although the stakeholders have diverse interests and different goals, a win-win solution is still possible through their joint participation and compromise in the voluntary forest carbon offset project. A wide governance structure laying emphasis on benefit balance, equality, and information exchanges and being regulated by all stakeholders has been constructed. It facilitates the agreement among the stakeholders with conflicting or different interests. The joint participation of stakeholders in voluntary forest carbon offset projects might change the government-dominated afforestation/reforestation into a market, where all participators including government are encouraged to cooperate with each other to improve the condition of fund shortage and low efficiency.

Grey assessment and prediction of the financial agglomeration degree in central five cities

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Li ◽  
Guo-hui Hu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Development ◽  
Fuzzy Decision Making ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Fuzzy Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Dimension ◽  
The Government ◽  
Development Tendency ◽  
Decision Making Model

Purpose – At present, financial agglomeration tendency in domestic and foreign countries is increasingly evident. Therefore, from a comparative perspective, this paper aims to assess and predict the financial agglomeration degree in central five cities. Design/methodology/approach – According to the diversity of evaluating indexes and the uncertainty of financial agglomeration, this paper constructs a set of indexes of evaluating the financial agglomeration degree, comprehensively evaluates the financial agglomeration degree of the five cities – Wuhan, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Nanchang and Hefei – in China's middle region from 2001 to 2010 by using the multiple dimension grey fuzzy decision-making model, and predicts their development tendency by using the GM (1, 1, β) model. Findings – The results show that the multiple dimension grey fuzzy decision-making pattern cannot only be used to determine the weights of evaluating indexes, but also get the fuzzy partition and ranking order of the financial agglomeration in central five cities. The grey prediction results can objectively reflect the development tendency of the financial agglomeration in central five cities. Practical implications – From the results, it is necessary for any competitive city to clarify their relative strengths and weaknesses in order for the accurate location and scientific development, and it also provides a reference for the government decision-making. Originality/value – The paper succeeds in using the multiple dimension grey fuzzy decision-making model to measure the financial agglomeration degree of the five central cities and the grey prediction model to predict future trends.

The Shaping of Popular Satisfaction with Government and Regime Performance in Germany

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-672 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS R. CUSACK
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Political System ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
The West ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The article focuses on citizens’ satisfaction with the German democratic political system. The empirical analysis reported supports the argument that the performance of the economy and the government affect popular satisfaction with the regime. In the East, satisfaction with the regime remains very low and dissatisfaction has spread into West Germany. In the West, the sources of this dissatisfaction are both economic developments and government performance; citizens modify their views on the system as a consequence of the government’s and the economy’s successes and failures. The dynamic is similar in the East. Economic strains, and the perception that the federal government is not making sufficient efforts to equalize living standards, have kept the Eastern population from committing themselves to the new unified political system.

The State and the Minority Group: Land Rights between the State and Kpaduma Indigenous Group in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (fct), Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Seun Bamidele ◽  
Olusegun Oladele Idowu
Keyword(s):  
High Intensity ◽  
Minority Group ◽  
Land Rights ◽  
The State ◽  
First Century ◽  
Forced Displacement ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Indigenous Group ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government

Abstract The politics of land rights and low or high intensity protest in the twenty-first century has produced several land-related protesters with a variety of strategies. This study focuses on the challenges of urbanization as it affects the Kpaduma community in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (fct), Nigeria. Kpaduma, an indigenous group, has a history of protest at various times with the government over its ancestral land. The last protest in 2016 brought massive destruction of settlements and forced displacement. Quite a number of works have been written on the land protests, with particular reference to their causes and consequences. However, the post-protests situation, particularly regarding the tense relationship and urbanization process in the locality, is yet to be sufficiently explored. This study investigates the state of relations between the government and Kpaduma as well as the urbanization processes in the country’s capital after the forced displacement of Kpaduma.

scholarly journals Forecasting China’s CO2 emissions by considering interaction of bilateral FDI using the improved grey multivariable Verhulst model

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Jiang ◽  
Peiyi Kong ◽  
Yi-Chung Hu ◽  
Peng Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Pollution Haven Hypothesis ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Pollution Haven ◽  
Verhulst Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Accuracy Of Prediction

AbstractBecause of the harmful influence of CO2 emissions on the environment and humans, issues related to CO2 emissions have received considerable attention in recent years. Based on the pollution haven hypothesis and pollution halo effect, the uncertain effect of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions has recently been in focus. Moreover, because of the opposing capital flow of bilateral FDI, the interaction between inward FDI (IFDI) and outward FDI (OFDI) might have a trade-off effect on CO2 emissions. The accurate forecasting of CO2 emissions in China in light of effect of the bilateral FDI is important since the government can use it to regulate emissions’ reduction. The grey multivariable Verhulst model (GMVM) was formulated in this paper with the goal of forecasting CO2 emissions in China by considering the nonlinear, independent, and interaction-related effects of bilateral FDI on them. To enhance the accuracy of prediction, this paper used the Fourier series and the grey prediction model for residual modifications. The empirical results showed that the IFDI and the item of the interaction of bilateral FDI promoted CO2 emissions, whereas OFDI reduced them in China. These results also verified the higher precision of the improved GMVM relative to other models. This paper also used improved GMVM to further forecast CO2 emissions and provided suggestions for the Chinese government to plan for foreign investment, including selectively implementing bilateral FDI, and focusing on the trade-off in its interaction-related effects.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

scholarly journals Analysis on the Effect of Chinese Medical Reform Policy on Medical Listed Companies -- Empirical Analysis on Listed Companies’ Stocks Returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Xiaoqian Fu
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Study Finding ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Systemic Reform ◽  
Private Hospitals ◽  
Medical Reform ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
Industrial Planning ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This paper studies the stock market reaction of medical reform policies to examine policies’ effect on the listed companies which invested in hospital. This paper applies the method of Event Study, finding out that the announcement of the new round of medical and health systemic reform in 2009, the key work for medical and health systemic reform and its detailed rules of implementation in 2010, and the setting of several specific goals to develop the private hospitals run by civilians in 2012, have taken increases of listed companies’ stocks returns (rate of return) by 2.95%, 4.64% and 4.92% separately. That means the whole market value rose by almost 55 billion, 128 billion, and 131 billion of RMB respectively. The empirical analysis results show that share price’s return rate of the listed companies which invested in hospital are significantly associated with industrial planning and supporting policies launched by the government. That is to say, Chinese government’s policy which began to encourage and guide civilian capital to develop the medical industry stimulated the medical and health industry effectively and significantly.

Causes of China's Low Consumption from the Perspective of Local Governmental Competition

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-31
Author(s):  
Yaling Zhu ◽  
Huifang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Taking into account the three-sector general equilibrium perspective of the government, business, and household sectors and taking government public goods investment as intermediary; this article builds mathematical models of local governmental competition and three-sector consumption. It also theoretically analyzes the impacting path of local governmental competition, causing increased investment in public goods, thereby reducing consumption. At the same time, based on the model of China's provincial panel data from 1993 to 2015, the empirical analysis shows that a 1% increase in the level of competition among local governments will result in a corresponding decrease of 0.757% in total consumption, 0.348% in governmental competition, 0.340% in business consumption and 0.366% in household consumption. Local governmental competition leads to the government's tendency to invest in public goods and reduces the regional consumption, which especially damages the consumption capacity of the household sector.

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