scholarly journals A Study on the Generalized Approximation Modeling Method Based on Fitting Sensitivity for Prediction of Engine Performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Lin Lin ◽  
Fang Wang ◽  
Shisheng Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Engine Performance ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Bayesian Regularization ◽  
Safety Engineering ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Approximation Model ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Fitting Accuracy

Prediction technology for aeroengine performance is significantly important in operational maintenance and safety engineering. In the prediction of engine performance, to address overfitting and underfitting problems with the approximation modeling technique, we derived a generalized approximation model that could be used to adjust fitting precision. Approximation precision was combined with fitting sensitivity to allow the model to obtain excellent fitting accuracy and generalization performance. Taking the Grey model (GM) as an example, we discussed the modeling approach of the novel GM based on fitting sensitivity, analyzed the setting methods and optimization range of model parameters, and solved the model by using a genetic algorithm. By investigating the effect of every model parameter on the prediction precision in experiments, we summarized the change regularities of the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) varying with the model parameters in novel GM. Also, by analyzing the novel ANN and ANN with Bayesian regularization, it is concluded that the generalized approximation model based on fitting sensitivity can achieve a reasonable fitting degree and generalization ability.

scholarly journals Histamine Control in Raw and Processed Tuna: A Rapid Tool Based on NIR Spectroscopy

Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 885
Author(s):  
Sergio Ghidini ◽  
Luca Maria Chiesa ◽  
Sara Panseri ◽  
Maria Olga Varrà ◽  
Adriana Ianieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Nir Spectroscopy ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Partial Least Square Regression ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Tuna Fish ◽  
Mean Square Errors

The present study was designed to investigate whether near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with minimal sample processing could be a suitable technique to rapidly measure histamine levels in raw and processed tuna fish. Calibration models based on orthogonal partial least square regression (OPLSR) were built to predict histamine in the range 10–1000 mg kg−1 using the 1000–2500 nm NIR spectra of artificially-contaminated fish. The two models were then validated using a new set of naturally contaminated samples in which histamine content was determined by conventional high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. As for calibration results, coefficient of determination (r2) > 0.98, root mean square of estimation (RMSEE) ≤ 5 mg kg−1 and root mean square of cross-validation (RMSECV) ≤ 6 mg kg−1 were achieved. Both models were optimal also in the validation stage, showing r2 values > 0.97, root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) ≤ 10 mg kg−1 and relative range error (RER) ≥ 25, with better results showed by the model for processed fish. The promising results achieved suggest NIR spectroscopy as an implemental analytical solution in fish industries and markets to effectively determine histamine amounts.

Explanation Plus Prediction—The Logical Focus of Project Management Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 875697282199994
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Hair ◽  
Marko Sarstedt
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Management Research ◽  
The Mean

Most project management research focuses almost exclusively on explanatory analyses. Evaluation of the explanatory power of statistical models is generally based on F-type statistics and the R 2 metric, followed by an assessment of the model parameters (e.g., beta coefficients) in terms of their significance, size, and direction. However, these measures are not indicative of a model’s predictive power, which is central for deriving managerial recommendations. We recommend that project management researchers routinely use additional metrics, such as the mean absolute error or the root mean square error, to accurately quantify their statistical models’ predictive power.

scholarly journals Automatic modelling of human musculoskeletal ligaments – Framework overview and model quality evaluation

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Noura Hamze ◽  
Lukas Nocker ◽  
Nikolaus Rauch ◽  
Markus Walzthöni ◽  
Matthias Harders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Soft Tissues ◽  
Automatic Generation ◽  
Cadaveric Study ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Shape Modelling ◽  
Morphological Studies ◽  
Insertion Sites ◽  
Mean Square Errors

BACKGROUND: Accurate segmentation of connective soft tissues in medical images is very challenging, hampering the generation of geometric models for bio-mechanical computations. Alternatively, one could predict ligament insertion sites and then approximate the shapes, based on anatomical knowledge and morphological studies. OBJECTIVE: In this work, we describe an integrated framework for automatic modelling of human musculoskeletal ligaments. METHOD: We combine statistical shape modelling with geometric algorithms to automatically identify insertion sites, based on which geometric surface/volume meshes are created. As clinical use case, the framework has been applied to generate models of the forearm interosseous membrane. Ligament insertion sites in the statistical model were defined according to anatomical predictions following a published approach. RESULTS: For evaluation we compared the generated sites, as well as the ligament shapes, to data obtained from a cadaveric study, involving five forearms with 15 ligaments. Our framework permitted the creation of models approximating ligaments’ shapes with good fidelity. However, we found that the statistical model trained with the state-of-the-art prediction of the insertion sites was not always reliable. Average mean square errors as well as Hausdorff distances of the meshes could increase by an order of magnitude, as compared to employing known insertion locations of the cadaveric study. Using those, an average mean square error of 0.59 mm and an average Hausdorff distance of less than 7 mm resulted, for all ligaments. CONCLUSIONS: The presented approach for automatic generation of ligament shapes from insertion points appears to be feasible but the detection of the insertion sites with a SSM is too inaccurate, thus making a patient-specific approach necessary.

scholarly journals Improving a real-time helicopter simulator model with linear input filters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Šćepanović ◽  
Frederik A. Döring
Keyword(s):  
Feedback Control ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Flight Test ◽  
Flight Mechanics ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Qualification Test ◽  
Model Inversion ◽  
Helicopter Flight ◽  
The Time Domain ◽  
Mean Square Errors

AbstractFor a broad range of applications, flight mechanics simulator models have to accurately predict the aircraft dynamics. However, the development and improvement of such models is a difficult and time consuming process. This is especially true for helicopters. In this paper, two rapidly applicable and implementable methods to derive linear input filters that improve the simulator model are presented. The first method is based on model inversion, the second on feedback control. Both methods are evaluated in the time domain, compared to recorded helicopter flight test data, and assessed based on root mean square errors and the Qualification Test Guide bounds. The best results were achieved when using the first method.

MEAN SQUARE ERRORS OF POINT DETERMINATIONS

1944 ◽  
Vol 7 (53) ◽  
pp. 279-294
Author(s):  
G. H. Menzies
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square ◽  
Mean Square Errors

scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning Models: Australia, Italy, and UK Cases

Information ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iman Rahimi ◽  
Amir H. Gandomi ◽  
Panagiotis G. Asteris ◽  
Fang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Chinese City ◽  
Limited Memory ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus disease, also known as COVID-19, is a disease outbreak that was first identified in Wuhan, a Central Chinese city. In this report, a short analysis focusing on Australia, Italy, and UK is conducted. The analysis includes confirmed and recovered cases and deaths, the growth rate in Australia compared with that in Italy and UK, and the trend of the disease in different Australian regions. Mathematical approaches based on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases and susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, and recovered (SEIQR) cases models are proposed to predict epidemiology in the above-mentioned countries. Since the performance of the classic forms of SIR and SEIQR depends on parameter settings, some optimization algorithms, namely Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), conjugate gradients (CG), limited memory bound constrained BFGS (L-BFGS-B), and Nelder–Mead, are proposed to optimize the parameters and the predictive capabilities of the SIR and SEIQR models. The results of the optimized SIR and SEIQR models were compared with those of two well-known machine learning algorithms, i.e., the Prophet algorithm and logistic function. The results demonstrate the different behaviors of these algorithms in different countries as well as the better performance of the improved SIR and SEIQR models. Moreover, the Prophet algorithm was found to provide better prediction performance than the logistic function, as well as better prediction performance for Italy and UK cases than for Australian cases. Therefore, it seems that the Prophet algorithm is suitable for data with an increasing trend in the context of a pandemic. Optimization of SIR and SEIQR model parameters yielded a significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the models. Despite the availability of several algorithms for trend predictions in this pandemic, there is no single algorithm that would be optimal for all cases.

A novel fractional discrete grey model with an adaptive structure and its application in electricity consumption prediction

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yitong Liu ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Dingyu Xue ◽  
Feng Pan
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Raw Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
Novel Model ◽  
Consumption Prediction

PurposeElectricity consumption prediction has been an important topic for its significant impact on electric policies. Due to various uncertain factors, the growth trends of electricity consumption in different cases are variable. However, the traditional grey model is based on a fixed structure which sometimes cannot match the trend of raw data. Consequently, the predictive accuracy is variable as cases change. To improve the model's adaptability and forecasting ability, a novel fractional discrete grey model with variable structure is proposed in this paper.Design/methodology/approachThe novel model can be regarded as a homogenous or non-homogenous exponent predicting model by changing the structure. And it selects the appropriate structure depending on the characteristics of raw data. The introduction of fractional accumulation enhances the predicting ability of the novel model. And the relative fractional order r is calculated by the numerical iterative algorithm which is simple but effective.FindingsTwo cases of power load and electricity consumption in Jiangsu and Fujian are applied to assess the predicting accuracy of the novel grey model. Four widely-used grey models, three classical statistical models and the multi-layer artificial neural network model are taken into comparison. The results demonstrate that the novel grey model performs well in all cases, and is superior to the comparative eight models.Originality/valueA fractional-order discrete grey model with an adaptable structure is proposed to solve the conflict between traditional grey models' fixed structures and variable development trends of raw data. In applications, the novel model has satisfied adaptability and predicting accuracy.

Research on Prediction of Carbon Steel in SO2 Atmospheric Corrosion Using Grey Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 507 ◽  
pp. 258-262
Author(s):  
Ping Wang ◽  
Zhao Hui Yin ◽  
Han Tao Ren ◽  
Song Xu
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Steel ◽  
Corrosion Rate ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Atmospheric Corrosion ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Fitting Accuracy

The rate of carbon steel in SO2 Atmospheric Corrosion was modeled by grey model GM (1, 1). The accuracy and rationality of prediction model have been evaluated. The result indicated that the model had a better fitting accuracy. By comparing the calculated values with a predicted atmospheric corrosion rate of carbon steel after 264h, it showed that its relative error has been just 0.5619% which had higher forecast reliability.

scholarly journals Uncertainties of ground-based microwave radiometer retrievals in zenith and off-zenith observations under snow conditions

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wengang Zhang ◽  
Guirong Xu ◽  
Yuanyuan Liu ◽  
Guopao Yan ◽  
Dejun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Vapor Density ◽  
Heavy Snowfall ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract. This paper is to investigate the uncertainties of microwave radiometer (MWR) retrievals in snow conditions and also explore the discrepancies of MWR retrievals in zenith and off-zenith observations. The MWR retrievals were averaged in a ±15 min period centered at sounding times of 00:00 and 12:00 UTC and compared with radiosonde observations (RAOBs). In general, the MWR retrievals have a better correlation with RAOB profiles in off-zenith observations than in zenith observations, and the biases (MWR observations minus RAOBs) and root mean square errors (RMSEs) between MWR and RAOB are also clearly reduced in off-zenith observations. The biases of temperature, relative humidity, and vapor density decrease from 4.6 K, 9 %, and 1.43 g m−3 in zenith observations to −0.6 K, −2 %, and 0.10 g m−3 in off-zenith observations, respectively. The discrepancies between MWR retrievals and RAOB profiles by altitude present the same situation. Cases studies show that the impact of snow on accuracies of MWR retrievals is more serious in heavy snowfall than in light snowfall, but off-zenith observation can mitigate the impact of snowfall. The MWR measurements become less accurate in snowfall mainly due to the retrieval algorithm, which does not consider the effect of snow, and the accumulated snow on the top of the radome increases the signal noise of MWR measurements. As the snowfall drops away by gravity on the sides of the radome, the off-zenith observations are more representative of the atmospheric conditions for RAOBs.

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