scholarly journals Impact of Capacity Drop on Commuting Systems under Uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenwei Zhang ◽  
Hui Zhao ◽  
Rui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Travel Cost ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Travel Choice ◽  
Dispersion Degree ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Capacity Drop ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the impact of capacity drop on commuters’ travel choice behaviors under uncertainty. For clarity, we assume that the capacity drop is triggered by the queue forming at the bottleneck under the hypercongestion circumstances, and the stochasticity of the drop could not be neglected. Considering the uncertainty of travel time, we establish a bottleneck model with commuters choosing their departure time according to the mean travel cost. From the proposed model, analytical solutions are achieved and therefore several properties are presented, including monotonicity of travel cost and departure rate, and the relationship between dispersion degree and length of peak period. To alleviate traffic congestion at the bottleneck and avoid capacity drop, we design a time-varying toll scheme and a step toll scheme. Evolution of queue length in equilibrium is discussed based on the Laih model. Numerical examples are also presented to demonstrate the established model and the effectiveness of the proposed toll schemes.

Heart Rate and Neurological Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Targeted Temperature Management

2020 ◽  
pp. 088506662098250
Author(s):  
Chad M. Conner ◽  
William H. Perucki ◽  
Andre Gabriel ◽  
David M. O’Sullivan ◽  
Antonio B. Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Targeted Temperature Management ◽  
Temperature Management ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Neurologic Outcomes ◽  
Resuscitation Guidelines ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction: There is a paucity of data evaluating the impact of heart rate (HR) during Targeted Temperature Management (TTM) and neurologic outcomes. Current resuscitation guidelines do not specify a HR goal during TTM. We sought to determine the relationship between HR and neurologic outcomes in a single-center registry dataset. Methods: We retrospectively studied 432 consecutive patients who completed TTM (33°C) after cardiac arrest from 2008 to 2017. We evaluated the relationship between neurologic outcomes and HR during TTM. Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) at discharge were used to determine neurological recovery. Statistical analysis included chi square, Student’s t-test and Mann-Whitney U. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate the strength of contribution of selected variables on the outcome of interest. Results: Approximately 94,000 HR data points from 432 patients were retrospectively analyzed; the mean HR was 82.17 bpm over the duration of TTM. Favorable neurological outcomes were seen in 160 (37%) patients. The mean HR in the patients with a favorable outcome was lower than the mean HR of those with an unfavorable outcome (79.98 bpm vs 85.67 bpm p < 0.001). Patients with an average HR of 60-91 bpm were 2.4 times more likely to have a favorable neurological outcome compared to than HR’s < 60 or > 91 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61-3.46, p < 0.001). Specifically, mean HR’s in the 73-82 bpm range had the greatest rate of favorable outcomes (OR 3.56, 95% CI 1.95-6.50), p < 0.001. Administration of epinephrine, a history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension all were associated with worse neurological outcomes independent of HR. Conclusion: During TTM, mean HRs between 60-91 showed a positive association with favorable outcomes. It is unclear whether a specific HR should be targeted during TTM or if heart rates between 60-91 bpm might be a sign of less neurological damage.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Effect of the Senior Management’s Support on the Relationship between Factors Affecting and Employees’ Performance in the Al-Zawiya University of Libya

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Nasreddin Ramadhan Dukhan ◽  
Norhisham Mohamad ◽  
Asbi B Ali
Keyword(s):  
Likert Scale ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Multiple Groups ◽  
Strongly Agree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Variable Performance

This study aims to test the influence of the senior management’s support as a moderating variable on the relationship between the independent factors (Training, Empowerment, Motivation and Communication) and the dependent variable (Performance of Employees). (SEM-AMOS) is used to test the impact of the moderating variable. Where it is depended on the method of sampling or analysis of what is known as multiple-groups analysis. The paragraphs of the senior management’s support variable are collected and divided into two groups according to the mean of the total paragraphs. In addition, according to the relative weights given to the paragraphs of the questionnaire, using a five- point’s Likert scale: 1= strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree. The first group consisted of the grades less than the mean and it is considered as the group which is non-supporters of the existence of support. While the second group consisted of the grades higher than the mean and considered as the group which is a supporter of the existence of support. The study found that the model of study in the presence of the support of the senior management’s is appropriate for the second group and inappropriate in light of the lack of support by the senior management’s support for the first group.

scholarly journals THE LUCK IN “TALENT VERSUS LUCK” MODELING

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050007
Author(s):  
SEAN ELVIDGE
Keyword(s):  
Mean Value ◽  
Maximum Amount ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper further investigates the Talent versus Luck (TvL) model described by [Pluchino et al. Talent versus luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21 (2018) 1850014] which models the relationship between ‘talent’ and ‘luck’ on the impact of an individuals career. It is shown that the model is very sensitive to both random sampling and the choice of value for the input parameters. Running the model repeatedly with the same set of input parameters gives a range of output values of over 50% of the mean value. The sensitivity of the inputs of the model is analyzed using a variance-based approach based upon generating Sobol sequences of quasi-random numbers. When using the model to look at the talent associated with an individual who has the maximum capital over a model run it has been shown that the choice for the standard deviation of the talent distribution contributes to 67% of the model variability. When investigating the maximum amount of capital returned by the model the probability of a lucky event at any given epoch has the largest impact on the model, almost three times more than any other individual parameter. Consequently, during the analysis of the model results one must keep in mind the impact that only small changes in the input parameters can have on the model output.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Parking Charge and Supply Policy Using System Dynamics Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenyu Mei ◽  
Qifeng Lou ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Lihui Zhang ◽  
Fei Shi
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Travel Cost ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Travel Choice ◽  
Supply Policy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Traffic Speed ◽  
Business District

Reasonable parking charge and supply policy are essential for the regular operation of the traffic in city center. This paper develops an evaluation model for parking policies using system dynamics. A quantitative study is conducted to examine the effects of parking charge and supply policy on traffic speed. The model, which is composed of three interrelated subsystems, first summarizes the travel cost of each travel mode and then calibrates the travel choice model through the travel mode subsystem. Finally, the subsystem that evaluates the state of traffic forecasts future car speed based on bureau of public roads (BPR) function and generates new travel cost until the entire model reaches a steady state. The accuracy of the model is verified in Hangzhou Wulin business district. The related error of predicted speed is only 2.2%. The results indicate that the regular pattern of traffic speed and parking charge can be illustrated using the proposed model based on system dynamics, and the model infers that reducing the parking supply in core area will increase its congestion level and, under certain parking supply conditions, there exists an interval of possible pricing at which the service reaches a level that is fairly stable.

Production Forecasting with the Interwell Interference by Integrating Graph Convolutional and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Enda Du ◽  
Yuetian Liu ◽  
Ziyan Cheng ◽  
Liang Xue ◽  
Jing Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Temporal Correlations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
The Impact

Summary Accurate production forecasting is an essential task and accompanies the entire process of reservoir development. With the limitation of prediction principles and processes, the traditional approaches are difficult to make rapid predictions. With the development of artificial intelligence, the data-driven model provides an alternative approach for production forecasting. To fully take the impact of interwell interference on production into account, this paper proposes a deep learning-based hybrid model (GCN-LSTM), where graph convolutional network (GCN) is used to capture complicated spatial patterns between each well, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is adopted to extract intricate temporal correlations from historical production data. To implement the proposed model more efficiently, two data preprocessing procedures are performed: Outliers in the data set are removed by using a box plot visualization, and measurement noise is reduced by a wavelet transform. The robustness and applicability of the proposed model are evaluated in two scenarios of different data types with the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the proposed model can effectively capture spatial and temporal correlations to make a rapid and accurate oil production forecast.

The Impact of Defense Investment on Economic Growth in the Perspective of Time Series

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-58
Author(s):  
Bin Pan ◽  
Shih-Yung Wei ◽  
Xuanhua Xu ◽  
Wei-Chiang Hong
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Endogenous Growth Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

By considering the demand and supply effects of defense investment and the uncertainty of the stochastic process of the production and defense investment, this study proposes a stochastic endogenous growth model to explore the impact of defense investment on economic growth. The results suggest that the relationship between defense investment and economic growth rate is nonlinear and obtains the optimal percentage of defense investment to maximize economic growth. Moreover, the impact of defense investment volatility on economic growth rate is subject to production and defense investment interference term's covariance and representative private investment risk preference. Finally, the empirical data are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.

scholarly journals Follower emotional intelligence

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 1239-1260
Author(s):  
J. Irudhaya Rajesh ◽  
Verma Prikshat ◽  
Paul Shum ◽  
L. Suganthi
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Intelligence ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
One Step ◽  
Cognitive Speed ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the impact of transformational leadership (TL) on follower emotional intelligence (EI) and examine the potential mediation role played by follower EI in the relationship between TL and follower outcomes (i.e. growth satisfaction in the job and job stress (JS)). Design/methodology/approach Data were obtained through survey using questionnaire collected from 908 employees who worked across six different sectors, i.e. manufacturing, IT, healthcare, hospitality, educational and public services in Southern India. The mediation model proposed in this study was tested using structural equation modelling and bootstrapping method. Findings The relationship between TL and Follower EI was significant. Follower EI was found to partially mediate the relationship between TL and followers’ growth satisfaction in job. Contrary to expectations, the follower EI did not significantly predict JS in this study and hence the follower EI did not mediate in the proposed model. However, follower EI and growth satisfaction in the job jointly mediated the relationship between TL and follower JS fully. Research limitations/implications Self-report bias about supervisors’ TL behaviours and followers’ own EI assessment and collection of data from the mono-source (subordinate self-report) might have impacted the results of this study. Moreover, some items were negatively worded and reverse coded as cognitive speed bumps to restrain the respondent’s tendency to rush through answering the survey questionnaire. Practical implications This study established a partial and joint mediation of follower EI on the relationship between TL and follower outcomes. Basing on these findings, this study highlights the need for the practitioners to better understand the importance of EI training for the leaders in the organisations for obtaining better outcomes in the followers. Social implications The study establishes the fact that the attunement of transformational leaders’ EI and follower EI help leaders as well as followers to guide their behaviour towards positive outcomes. Originality/value This study is among the first to examine the impact of TL on follower EI and the potential mediation of follower EI between TL and follower outcomes. From a theoretical perspective, this study is one step closer to fully understand the intervening process between TL and follower outcomes.

Modelling patterns of parasite aggregation in natural populations: trichostrongylid nematode–ruminant interactions as a case study

Parasitology ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 111 (S1) ◽  
pp. S135-S151 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. T. Grenfell ◽  
K. Wilson ◽  
V. S. Isham ◽  
H. E. G. Boyd ◽  
K. Dietz
Keyword(s):  
Population Biology ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Parasite Load ◽  
Host Immunity ◽  
Moment Closure ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Parasite Aggregation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARYThe characteristically aggregated frequency distribution of macroparasites in their hosts is a key feature of host–parasite population biology. We begin with a brief review of the theoretical literature concerning parasite aggregation. Though this work has illustrated much about both the sources and impact of parasite aggregation, there is still no definitive analysis of both these aspects. We then go on to illustrate the use of one approach to this problem – the construction of Moment Closure Equations (MCEs), which can be used to represent both the mean and second moments (variances and covariances) of the distribution of different parasite stages and phenomenological measures of host immunity. We apply these models to one of the best documented interactions involving free-living animal hosts – the interaction between trichostrongylid nematodes and ruminants. The analysis compares patterns of variability in experimental infections of Teladorsagia circumcincta in sheep with the equivalent wildlife situation – the epidemiology of T. circumcincta in a feral population of Soay sheep on St Kilda, Outer Hebrides. We focus on the relationship between mean parasite load and aggregation (inversely measured by the negative binomial parameter, k) for cohorts of hosts. The analysis and empirical data indicate that k tracks the increase and subsequent decline in the mean burden with host age. We discuss this result in terms of the degree of heterogeneity in the impact of host immunity or parasite-induced mortality required to shorten the tail of the parasite distribution (and therefore increase k) in older animals. The model is also used to analyse the relationship between estimated worm and egg counts (since only the latter are often available for wildlife hosts). Finally, we use these results to review directions for future work on the nature and impact of parasite aggregation.

scholarly journals Increased left atrial pressure in non-heart failure patients with subclinical hypothyroidism and atrial fibrillation

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 101-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akinori Sairaku ◽  
Yukiko Nakano ◽  
Yuko Uchimura ◽  
Takehito Tokuyama ◽  
Hiroshi Kawazoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Subclinical Hypothyroidism ◽  
Left Atrial ◽  
Structural Heart Disease ◽  
Thyroid Stimulating Hormone ◽  
The Mean ◽  
V Wave ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Background The impact of subclinical hypothyroidism on the cardiovascular risk is still debated. We aimed to measure the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism and the left atrial (LA) pressure. Methods The LA pressures and thyroid function were measured in consecutive patients undergoing atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation, who did not have any known heart failure, structural heart disease, or overt thyroid disease. Results Subclinical hypothyroidism (4.5≤ thyroid-stimulating hormone <19.9 mIU/L) was present in 61 (13.0%) of the 471 patients included. More subclinical hypothyroidism patients than euthyroid patients (55.7% vs 40.2%; P=0.04).’euthyroid patients had persistent or long-standing persistent AF (55.7% vs 40.2%; P = 0.04). The mean LA pressure (10.9 ± 4.7 vs 9.1 ± 4.3 mmHg; P = 0.002) and LA V-wave pressure (17.4 ± 6.5 vs 14.3 ± 5.9 mmHg; P < 0.001) were, respectively, higher in the patients with subclinical hypothyroidism than in the euthyroid patients. After an adjustment for potential confounders, the LA pressures remained significantly higher in the subclinical hypothyroidism patients. A multiple logistic regression model showed that subclinical hypothyroidism was independently associated with a mean LA pressure of >18 mmHg (odds ratio 3.94, 95% CI 1.28 11.2; P = 0.02). Conclusions Subclinical hypothyroidism may increase the LA pressure in AF patients.

scholarly journals The Impact of using social media in a sample of Iraqi medical students in 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Almawashee ◽  
Qaswer Yousif ◽  
Karrar Ali Idan
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Medical Students ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Educational Values ◽  
Research Committee ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background:  Social media are tools that supports electronic conversation. suggested , social media are “a group of internet-based applications that build on the ideological and technological foundations of Web 2.0, that allow the creation and exchange of User Generated Content. Aim of the study: Is to identify the pattern of usage of social media among a sample of Iraqi medical students including the devices used, the time consumed, and   the purpose of usage. Materials &Methods: The study, which is a retrospective cross-sectional, was conducted among medical students at college of Medicine\Baghdad University at 2019 as an online survey for duration of 3 months Data was entered and analyzed using spss version 24.Informed consent was obtained from the participants and the study was approved by the research committee in the college. Results The mean age of the participants in this study was 20.8 with sd 1.78. Results had shown no significant association between the usefulness of social media for educational values and type of social media, device used, and the time spent on these media. Results had shown that those who use social media more frequently were not significantly worried about the potential of social media abuse. Conclusions A study exploring more objectively the relationship between students’ use of social media with their academic achievements and what sort of social media interventions associated with better learning are probably needed. Such knowledge may be useful to guide medical educators to better utilize social media in their instructional strategies.

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