scholarly journals Machine Learning Theory in the Strategic Management of Regional Risk Factors Measurement

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Shajunyi Zhao ◽  
Jingfeng Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Semisupervised Learning ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Regional Risk

Under the background of the state’s strong support for entrepreneurship, domestic small- and medium-sized enterprises ushered in the climax of development, but there are still crises coexisting with opportunities. According to statistics, most small- and medium-sized enterprises cannot survive the first three years of the initial stage of entrepreneurship. It can be said that risks exist all the time for enterprises. How to face the risk crisis and effectively avoid these regional risks has become an important factor for enterprises to survive for a long time. The accelerating pace of global economic integration has not only brought opportunities to enterprises but also brought challenges to the survival of enterprises. At present, there are few studies on regional risk in China and most of them are qualitative studies; there is no more specific quantitative study on risk factors. In view of this situation, this paper will study the quantitative evaluation model of regional risk factors based on machine learning. The development of this model adopts the method of support vector machine, which is a more commonly used risk assessment machine learning method. In order to better assess the risk, this paper also establishes a risk assessment index system, which classifies the factors of regional risk in detail and gives the specific evaluation method. Through the combination of modern technologies such as intelligent computing, semisupervised learning, and strategic center organization, the final model is established. After four risk prediction experiments including measuring the net profit margin of total assets of enterprise a, the data shows that the accuracy of the risk assessment model in this paper has been greatly improved compared with the traditional way and shows that the short-term prediction is higher than the long-term prediction and the overall prediction effect is relatively ideal, which can be applied to the practical management of regional risk prediction of enterprises.

scholarly journals Development of Health Parameter Model for Risk Prediction of CVD Using SVM

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Unnikrishnan ◽  
D. K. Kumar ◽  
S. Poosapadi Arjunan ◽  
H. Kumar ◽  
P. Mitchell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Framingham Study ◽  
Local Database ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Health Parameters

Current methods of cardiovascular risk assessment are performed using health factors which are often based on the Framingham study. However, these methods have significant limitations due to their poor sensitivity and specificity. We have compared the parameters from the Framingham equation with linear regression analysis to establish the effect of training of the model for the local database. Support vector machine was used to determine the effectiveness of machine learning approach with the Framingham health parameters for risk assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The result shows that while linear model trained using local database was an improvement on Framingham model, SVM based risk assessment model had high sensitivity and specificity of prediction of CVD. This indicates that using the health parameters identified using Framingham study, machine learning approach overcomes the low sensitivity and specificity of Framingham model.

scholarly journals Enterprise Risk Assessment Based on Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Boning Huang ◽  
Junkang Wei ◽  
Yuhong Tang ◽  
Chang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Technology ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Enterprise Risk ◽  
Specific Implementation

Scientific risk assessment is an important guarantee for the healthy development of an enterprise. With the continuous development and maturity of machine learning technology, it has played an important role in the field of data prediction and risk assessment. This paper conducts research on the application of machine learning technology in enterprise risk assessment. According to the existing literature, this paper uses three machine learning algorithms, i.e., random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and AdaBoost, to evaluate enterprise risk. In the specific implementation, the enterprise’s risk assessment indexes are first established, which comprehensively describe the various risks faced by the enterprise through a number of parameters. Then, the three types of machine learning algorithms are trained based on historical data to build a risk assessment model. Finally, for a set of risk indicators obtained under current conditions, the risk index is output through the risk assessment model. In the experiment, some actual data are used to analyze and verify the method, and the results show that the proposed three types of machine learning algorithms can effectively evaluate enterprise risks.

scholarly journals A Novel Hybrid Method for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping-Based GeoDetector and Machine Learning Cluster: A Case of Xiaojin County, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Wei Xie ◽  
Xiaoshuang Li ◽  
Wenbin Jian ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Hongwei Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hybrid Method ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Area Index

Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) could be an effective way to prevent landslide hazards and mitigate losses. The choice of conditional factors is crucial to the results of LSM, and the selection of models also plays an important role. In this study, a hybrid method including GeoDetector and machine learning cluster was developed to provide a new perspective on how to address these two issues. We defined redundant factors by quantitatively analyzing the single impact and interactive impact of the factors, which was analyzed by GeoDetector, the effect of this step was examined using mean absolute error (MAE). The machine learning cluster contains four models (artificial neural network (ANN), Bayesian network (BN), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machines (SVM)) and automatically selects the best one for generating LSM. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, prediction accuracy, and the seed cell area index (SCAI) methods were used to evaluate these methods. The results show that the SVM model had the best performance in the machine learning cluster with the area under the ROC curve of 0.928 and with an accuracy of 83.86%. Therefore, SVM was chosen as the assessment model to map the landslide susceptibility of the study area. The landslide susceptibility map demonstrated fit with landslide inventory, indicated the hybrid method is effective in screening landslide influences and assessing landslide susceptibility.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Risk Factors, Economic Factors, and Epidemiological Factors nexus on Economic Impact: Machine Learning and Structural Equation Modelling Approaches

2021 ◽  
pp. 395-405
Author(s):  
David Opeoluwa Oyewola ◽  
Emmanuel Gbenga Dada ◽  
Juliana Ngozi Ndunagu ◽  
Terrang Abubakar Umar ◽  
Akinwunmi S.A
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Structural Equation Modeling ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Impact

Since the declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, it has been transmitted to more than 200 nations of the world. The harmful impact of the pandemic on the economy of nations is far greater than anything suffered in almost a century. The main objective of this paper is to apply Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Machine Learning (ML) to determine the relationships among COVID-19 risk factors, epidemiology factors and economic factors. Structural equation modeling is a statistical technique for calculating and evaluating the relationships of manifest and latent variables. It explores the causal relationship between variables and at the same time taking measurement error into account. Bagging (BAG), Boosting (BST), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF) Machine Learning techniques was applied to predict the impact of COVID-19 risk factors. Data from patients who came into contact with coronavirus disease were collected from Kaggle database between 23 January 2020 and 24 June 2020. Results indicate that COVID-19 risk factors have negative effects on epidemiology factors. It also has negative effects on economic factors.

scholarly journals Predicting the Risk of Hypertension Based on Several Easy-to-Collect Risk Factors: A Machine Learning Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanhuan Zhao ◽  
Xiaoyu Zhang ◽  
Yang Xu ◽  
Lisheng Gao ◽  
Zuchang Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Hypertension Risk ◽  
Model Training

Hypertension is a widespread chronic disease. Risk prediction of hypertension is an intervention that contributes to the early prevention and management of hypertension. The implementation of such intervention requires an effective and easy-to-implement hypertension risk prediction model. This study evaluated and compared the performance of four machine learning algorithms on predicting the risk of hypertension based on easy-to-collect risk factors. A dataset of 29,700 samples collected through a physical examination was used for model training and testing. Firstly, we identified easy-to-collect risk factors of hypertension, through univariate logistic regression analysis. Then, based on the selected features, 10-fold cross-validation was utilized to optimize four models, random forest (RF), CatBoost, MLP neural network and logistic regression (LR), to find the best hyper-parameters on the training set. Finally, the performance of models was evaluated by AUC, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity on the test set. The experimental results showed that the RF model outperformed the other three models, and achieved an AUC of 0.92, an accuracy of 0.82, a sensitivity of 0.83 and a specificity of 0.81. In addition, Body Mass Index (BMI), age, family history and waist circumference (WC) are the four primary risk factors of hypertension. These findings reveal that it is feasible to use machine learning algorithms, especially RF, to predict hypertension risk without clinical or genetic data. The technique can provide a non-invasive and economical way for the prevention and management of hypertension in a large population.

Implementing machine learning algorithms for suicide risk prediction in clinical practice: A focus group study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Bentley ◽  
Kelly Zuromski ◽  
Rebecca Fortgang ◽  
Emily Madsen ◽  
Daniel Kessler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Suicide Risk Assessment ◽  
Focus Group Study

Background: Interest in developing machine learning algorithms that use electronic health record data to predict patients’ risk of suicidal behavior has recently proliferated. Whether and how such models might be implemented and useful in clinical practice, however, remains unknown. In order to ultimately make automated suicide risk prediction algorithms useful in practice, and thus better prevent patient suicides, it is critical to partner with key stakeholders (including the frontline providers who will be using such tools) at each stage of the implementation process.Objective: The aim of this focus group study was to inform ongoing and future efforts to deploy suicide risk prediction models in clinical practice. The specific goals were to better understand hospital providers’ current practices for assessing and managing suicide risk; determine providers’ perspectives on using automated suicide risk prediction algorithms; and identify barriers, facilitators, recommendations, and factors to consider for initiatives in this area. Methods: We conducted 10 two-hour focus groups with a total of 40 providers from psychiatry, internal medicine and primary care, emergency medicine, and obstetrics and gynecology departments within an urban academic medical center. Audio recordings of open-ended group discussions were transcribed and coded for relevant and recurrent themes by two independent study staff members. All coded text was reviewed and discrepancies resolved in consensus meetings with doctoral-level staff. Results: Though most providers reported using standardized suicide risk assessment tools in their clinical practices, existing tools were commonly described as unhelpful and providers indicated dissatisfaction with current suicide risk assessment methods. Overall, providers’ general attitudes toward the practical use of automated suicide risk prediction models and corresponding clinical decision support tools were positive. Providers were especially interested in the potential to identify high-risk patients who might be missed by traditional screening methods. Some expressed skepticism about the potential usefulness of these models in routine care; specific barriers included concerns about liability, alert fatigue, and increased demand on the healthcare system. Key facilitators included presenting specific patient-level features contributing to risk scores, emphasizing changes in risk over time, and developing systematic clinical workflows and provider trainings. Participants also recommended considering risk-prediction windows, timing of alerts, who will have access to model predictions, and variability across treatment settings.Conclusions: Providers were dissatisfied with current suicide risk assessment methods and open to the use of a machine learning-based risk prediction system to inform clinical decision-making. They also raised multiple concerns about potential barriers to the usefulness of this approach and suggested several possible facilitators. Future efforts in this area will benefit from incorporating systematic qualitative feedback from providers, patients, administrators, and payers on the use of new methods in routine care, especially given the complex, sensitive, and unfortunately still stigmatized nature of suicide risk.

Machine learning models for prediction of postoperative ileus in patients underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueyan Li ◽  
Genshan Ma ◽  
Xiaobo Qian ◽  
Yamou Wu ◽  
Xiaochen Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Colorectal Surgery ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Postoperative Ileus ◽  
Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Malignant Lesions

Abstract Background: We aimed to assess the performance of machine learning algorithms for the prediction of risk factors of postoperative ileus (POI) in patients underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery for malignant lesions. Methods: We conducted analyses in a retrospective observational study with a total of 637 patients at Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. Four machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting decision tree) were considered to predict risk factors of POI. The total cases were randomly divided into training and testing data sets, with a ratio of 8:2. The performance of each model was evaluated by area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), precision, recall and F1-score. Results: The morbidity of POI in this study was 19.15% (122/637). Gradient boosting decision tree reached the highest AUC (0.76) and was the best model for POI risk prediction. In addition, the results of the importance matrix of gradient boosting decision tree showed that the five most important variables were time to first passage of flatus, opioids during POD3, duration of surgery, height and weight. Conclusions: The gradient boosting decision tree was the optimal model to predict the risk of POI in patients underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery for malignant lesions. And the results of our study could be useful for clinical guidelines in POI risk prediction.

Abstract 196: Development and Validation of Machine Learning-based Race-specific Models to Predict 10-year Risk of Heart Failure: A Multi-cohort Analysis

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew W Segar ◽  
Byron Jaeger ◽  
Kershaw V Patel ◽  
Vijay Nambi ◽  
Chiadi E Ndumele ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Black And White ◽  
White Adults

Introduction: Heart failure (HF) risk and the underlying biological risk factors vary by race. Machine learning (ML) may improve race-specific HF risk prediction but this has not been fully evaluated. Methods: The study included participants from 4 cohorts (ARIC, DHS, JHS, and MESA) aged > 40 years, free of baseline HF, and with adjudicated HF event follow-up. Black adults from JHS and white adults from ARIC were used to derive race-specific ML models to predict 10-year HF risk. The ML models were externally validated in subgroups of black and white adults from ARIC (excluding JHS participants) and pooled MESA/DHS cohorts and compared to prior established HF risk scores developed in ARIC and MESA. Harrell’s C-index and Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino chi-square were used to assess discrimination and calibration, respectively. Results: In the derivation cohorts, 288 of 4141 (7.0%) black and 391 of 8242 (4.7%) white adults developed HF over 10 years. The ML models had excellent discrimination in both black and white participants (C-indices = 0.88 and 0.89). In the external validation cohorts for black participants from ARIC (excluding JHS, N = 1072) and MESA/DHS pooled cohorts (N = 2821), 131 (12.2%) and 115 (4.1%) developed HF. The ML model had adequate calibration and demonstrated superior discrimination compared to established HF risk models (Fig A). A consistent pattern was also observed in the external validation cohorts of white participants from the MESA/DHS pooled cohorts (N=3236; 100 [3.1%] HF events) (Fig A). The most important predictors of HF in both races were NP levels. Cardiac biomarkers and glycemic parameters were most important among blacks while LV hypertrophy and prevalent CVD and traditional CV risk factors were the strongest predictors among whites (Fig B). Conclusions: Race-specific and ML-based HF risk models that integrate clinical, laboratory, and biomarker data demonstrated superior performance when compared to traditional risk prediction models.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and Monitoring of Green Logistics for Fresh Produce Based on a Support Vector Machine

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7569
Author(s):  
Guoquan Zhang ◽  
Guohao Li ◽  
Jing Peng
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Fresh Produce ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Cold Chain ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Monitoring Model ◽  
Assessment And Monitoring

The sustainability and profitability of fresh produce supply chains are contingent upon several risk factors. This work, therefore, examines several risk indicators that affect the quality and safety of fresh produce in transit, including technological, biological, sustainability, environmental, and emergency risks. Then, we developed a risk assessment and monitoring model that employs a machine learning algorithm, a support vector machine, based on historical monitoring data. The proposed methodology was then applied to simulation and numerical analysis to assess the risks incurred in the strawberry cold chain. After training, the algorithm predicted the risks incurred during transportation with an average accuracy of 90.4%. Therefore, the developed methodology can effectively and accurately perform a risk assessment. Furthermore, the risk assessment model can be applied to other fresh produce due to comprehensive risk indicators. Decision-makers in fresh produce logistics companies can use the developed methodology to identify and mitigate risks incurred, thus improving food safety, reducing product loss, maximizing profits, and realizing sustainable development.

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