scholarly journals Improving a pest management tool for scenario analysis of economic populations of Globodera pallida

Nematology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Christopher A. Bell ◽  
Matthew A. Back ◽  
Peter E. Urwin ◽  
Howard J. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Globodera Pallida ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Annual Decline

Summary Globodera pallida is the most damaging pest of potato in the UK. This work underpins enhancement of a well-established, web-based scenario analysis tool for its management by recommending additions and modifications of its required inputs and a change in the basis of yield loss estimates. The required annual decline rate of the dormant egg population is determined at the individual field sample level to help define the required rotation length by comparing the viable egg content of recovered cysts to that of newly formed cysts for the same projected area. The mean annual decline was 20.4 ± 1.4% but ranged from 4.0 to 39.7% annum−1 at the field level. Further changes were based on meta-analysis of previous field trials. Spring rainfall in the region where a field is located and cultivar tolerance influence yield loss. Tolerance has proved difficult to define for many UK potato cultivars in field trials but uncertainty can be avoided without detriment by replacing it with determinacy integers. They are already determined to support optimisation of nitrogen application rates. Multiple linear regression estimates that loss caused by pre-plant populations of up to 20 viable eggs (g soil)−1 varies from ca 0.2 to 2.0% (viable egg)−1 (g soil)−1 depending on cultivar determinacy and spring rainfall. Reliability of the outcomes from scenario analysis requires validation in field trials with population densities over which planting is advisable.

The Orchard Plot: Cultivating a Forest Plot for Use in Ecology, Evolution and Beyond

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinichi Nakagawa ◽  
Malgorzata Lagisz ◽  
Rose E O'Dea ◽  
Joanna Rutkowska ◽  
Yefeng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
R Package ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Forest Plot ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Aggregate Effect ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Meta Analyses ◽  
Heterogeneous Effect ◽  
Intuitive Interpretation

‘Classic’ forest plots show the effect sizes from individual studies and the aggregate effect from a meta-analysis. However, in ecology and evolution meta-analyses routinely contain over 100 effect sizes, making the classic forest plot of limited use. We surveyed 102 meta-analyses in ecology and evolution, finding that only 11% use the classic forest plot. Instead, most used a ‘forest-like plot’, showing point estimates (with 95% confidence intervals; CIs) from a series of subgroups or categories in a meta-regression. We propose a modification of the forest-like plot, which we name the ‘orchard plot’. Orchard plots, in addition to showing overall mean effects and CIs from meta-analyses/regressions, also includes 95% prediction intervals (PIs), and the individual effect sizes scaled by their precision. The PI allows the user and reader to see the range in which an effect size from a future study may be expected to fall. The PI, therefore, provides an intuitive interpretation of any heterogeneity in the data. Supplementing the PI, the inclusion of underlying effect sizes also allows the user to see any influential or outlying effect sizes. We showcase the orchard plot with example datasets from ecology and evolution, using the R package, orchard, including several functions for visualizing meta-analytic data using forest-plot derivatives. We consider the orchard plot as a variant on the classic forest plot, cultivated to the needs of meta-analysts in ecology and evolution. Hopefully, the orchard plot will prove fruitful for visualizing large collections of heterogeneous effect sizes regardless of the field of study.

‘I’m an expert in me and I know what I can cope with’: Patient expertise in rheumatoid arthritis

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 249-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tessa Sanderson ◽  
Jo Angouri
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Specific Knowledge ◽  
Active Involvement ◽  
Domain Specific ◽  
Access To Health ◽  
Patient Expertise ◽  
Domain Specific Knowledge ◽  
The Uk

The active involvement of patients in decision-making and the focus on patient expertise in managing chronic illness constitutes a priority in many healthcare systems including the NHS in the UK. With easier access to health information, patients are almost expected to be (or present self) as an ‘expert patient’ (Ziebland 2004). This paper draws on the meta-analysis of interview data collected for identifying treatment outcomes important to patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Taking a discourse approach to identity, the discussion focuses on the resources used in the negotiation and co-construction of expert identities, including domain-specific knowledge, access to institutional resources, and ability to self-manage. The analysis shows that expertise is both projected (institutionally sanctioned) and claimed by the patient (self-defined). We close the paper by highlighting the limitations of our pilot study and suggest avenues for further research.

Sisterhood and After

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaretta Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Oral History ◽  
Women's Liberation ◽  
Equal Rights ◽  
Collective Memories ◽  
Women’S Liberation ◽  
Two Generations ◽  
Personal Accounts ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Cultural Taste

This ground-breaking history of the UK Women’s Liberation Movement explores the individual and collective memories of women at its heart. Spanning at least two generations and four nations, and moving through the tumultuous decades from the 1970s to the present, the narrative is powered by feminist oral history, notably the British Library’s Sisterhood and After: The Women’s Liberation Oral History Project. The book mines these precious archives to bring fresh insight into the lives of activists and the campaigns and ideas they mobilised. It navigates still-contested questions of class, race, violence, and upbringing—as well as the intimacies, sexualities and passions that helped fire women’s liberation—and shows why many feminists still regard notions of ‘equality’ or even ‘equal rights’ as insufficient. It casts new light on iconic campaigns and actions in what is sometimes simplified as feminism’s ‘second wave’, and enlivens a narrative too easily framed by ideological abstraction with candid, insightful, sometimes painful personal accounts of national and less well-known women activists. They describe lives shaped not only by structures of race, class, gender, sexuality and physical ability, but by education, age, love and cultural taste. At the same time, they offer extraordinary insights into feminist lifestyles and domestic pleasures, and the crossovers and conflicts between feminists. The work draws on oral history’s strength as creative method, as seen with its conclusion, where readers are urged to enter the archives of feminist memory and use what they find there to shape their own political futures.

Punk as Folk: Continuities and Tensions in the UK and Beyond

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pete Dale
Keyword(s):  
Folk Music ◽  
Music Making ◽  
Collective Creativity ◽  
Living Tradition ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

Numerous claims have been made by a wide range of commentators that punk is somehow “a folk music” of some kind. Doubtless there are several continuities. Indeed, both tend to encourage amateur music-making, both often have affiliations with the Left, and both emerge at least partly from a collective/anti-competitive approach to music-making. However, there are also significant tensions between punk and folk as ideas/ideals and as applied in practice. Most obviously, punk makes claims to a “year zero” creativity (despite inevitably offering re-presentation of at least some existing elements in every instance), whereas folk music is supposed to carry forward a tradition (which, thankfully, is more recognized in recent decades as a subject-to-change “living tradition” than was the case in folk’s more purist periods). Politically, meanwhile, postwar folk has tended more toward a socialist and/or Marxist orientation, both in the US and UK, whereas punk has at least rhetorically claimed to be in favor of “anarchy” (in the UK, in particular). Collective creativity and competitive tendencies also differ between the two (perceived) genre areas. Although the folk scene’s “floor singer” tradition offers a dispersal of expressive opportunity comparable in some ways to the “anyone can do it” idea that gets associated with punk, the creative expectation of the individual within the group differs between the two. Punk has some similarities to folk, then, but there are tensions, too, and these are well worth examining if one is serious about testing out the common claim, in both folk and punk, that “anyone can do it.”

scholarly journals Use of Dynamic Analysis to Investigate the Behaviour of Short Neutral Sections in the Overhead Line Electrification

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
John Morris ◽  
Mark Robinson ◽  
Roberto Palacin
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Simulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Overhead Line ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Section Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Neutral Section

The ‘short’ neutral section is a feature of alternating current (AC) railway overhead line electrification that is often unreliable and a source of train delays. However hardly any dynamic analysis of its behaviour has been undertaken. This paper briefly describes the work undertaken investigating the possibility of modelling the behaviour using a novel approach. The potential for thus improving the performance of short neutral sections is evaluated, with particular reference to the UK situation. The analysis fundamentally used dynamic simulation of the pantograph and overhead contact line (OCL) interface, implemented using a proprietary finite element analysis tool. The neutral section model was constructed using physical characteristics and laboratory tests data, and was included in a validated pantograph/OCL simulation model. Simulation output of the neutral section behaviour has been validated satisfactorily against real line test data. Using this method the sensitivity of the neutral section performance in relation to particular parameters of its construction was examined. A limited number of parameter adjustments were studied, seeking potential improvements. One such improvement identified involved the additional inclusion of a lever arm at the trailing end of the neutral section. A novel application of pantograph/OCL dynamic simulation to modelling neutral section behaviour has been shown to be useful in assessing the modification of neutral section parameters.

scholarly journals ‘Rising demand and decreasing resources’: Theorising the ‘cost of austerity’ as a barrier to social worker discretion

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
CIARÁN MURPHY
Keyword(s):  
Social Worker ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Child Protection Services ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Critical Realist ◽  
Documentary Analysis ◽  
Effective System ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost

Abstract The Munro Review of Child Protection asserted that the English child protection system had become overly ‘defensive’, ‘bureaucratised’ and ‘standardised’, meaning that social workers were not employing their discretion in the interests of the individual child. This paper reports on the results of an ethnographic case study of one of England’s statutory child protection teams. The research sought to explore the extent of social worker discretion relative to Munro’s call for ‘radical reform’ and a move towards a more ‘child-centred’ system. Employing an iterative mixed methods design – encompassing documentary analysis, observation, focus group, questionnaire, interview and ‘Critical Realist Grounded Theory’ – the study positioned the UK Government’s prolonged policy of ‘austerity’ as a barrier to social worker discretion. This was because the policy was seen to be contributing to an increased demand for child protection services; and a related sense amongst practitioners that they were afforded insufficient time with the child to garner the requisite knowledge, necessary for discretionary behaviour. Ultimately, despite evidence of progress relative to assertions that social worker discretion had been eroded, the paper concludes that there may still be ‘more to do’ if we are to achieve the ‘child-centred’ and ‘effective’ system that Munro advocated.

scholarly journals Effects of intensive biomass harvesting on forest soils in the Nordic countries and the UK: A meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 482 ◽  
pp. 118877
Author(s):  
Nicholas Clarke ◽  
Lars Pødenphant Kiær ◽  
O. Janne Kjønaas ◽  
Teresa G. Bárcena ◽  
Lars Vesterdal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Soils ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
Biomass Harvesting ◽  
The Uk

Using Analytic Hierarchy Process to Optimize PESTEL Scenario Analysis Tool in Huge Construction Projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 865 ◽  
pp. 707-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Geraldo Lamas Leite ◽  
Luiz Carlos Brasil de Brito Mello ◽  
Orlando Celso Longo ◽  
Eduardo Picanço Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Civil Engineering ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Engineering Construction ◽  
Hierarchy Process

This paper uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process to optimize the PESTEL analysis. The scenario: pre-construction and assembly factors of huge civil engineering construction projects. Several managers use too many criteria to evaluate large projects. It suggests that there may be few important criteria that summarize the manager's preference. To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed hypothesis, the authors prepared a qualitative and exploratory study. Conclusions are based on the judgment of an expert interviewed. As expected, the hypothesis was considered plausible. Two main criteria corresponded to 71% of the expert's preference. The result resembles a Pareto distribution.

scholarly journals Rotor Interaction Noise in Counter-Rotating Propfan Propulsion Systems

2011 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Peters ◽  
Zoltán S. Spakovszky
Keyword(s):  
Polar Angle ◽  
Secondary Flows ◽  
Tip Vortex ◽  
System Level ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Acoustic Analogy ◽  
Wake Interaction ◽  
Open Rotor ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Individual

Due to their inherent noise challenge and potential for significant reductions in fuel burn, counter-rotating propfans (CRPs) are currently being investigated as potential alternatives to high-bypass turbofan engines. This paper introduces an integrated noise and performance assessment methodology for advanced propfan powered aircraft configurations. The approach is based on first principles and combines a coupled aircraft and propulsion system mission and performance analysis tool with 3D unsteady, full-wheel CRP computational fluid dynamics computations and aeroacoustic simulations. Special emphasis is put on computing CRP noise due to interaction tones. The method is capable of dealing with parametric studies and exploring noise reduction technologies. An aircraft performance, weight and balance, and mission analysis was first conducted on a candidate CRP powered aircraft configuration. Guided by data available in the literature, a detailed aerodynamic design of a pusher CRP was carried out. Full-wheel unsteady 3D Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were then used to determine the time varying blade surface pressures and unsteady flow features necessary to define the acoustic source terms. A frequency domain approach based on Goldstein’s formulation of the acoustic analogy for moving media and Hanson’s single rotor noise method was extended to counter-rotating configurations. The far field noise predictions were compared to measured data of a similar CRP configuration and demonstrated good agreement between the computed and measured interaction tones. The underlying noise mechanisms have previously been described in literature but, to the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the individual contributions of front-rotor wake interaction, aft-rotor upstream influence, hub-endwall secondary flows, and front-rotor tip-vortices to interaction tone noise are dissected and quantified. Based on this investigation, the CRP was redesigned for reduced noise incorporating a clipped rear-rotor and increased rotor-rotor spacing to reduce upstream influence, tip-vortex, and wake interaction effects. Maintaining the thrust and propulsive efficiency at takeoff conditions, the noise was calculated for both designs. At the interaction tone frequencies, the redesigned CRP demonstrated an average reduction of 7.25 dB in mean sound pressure level computed over the forward and aft polar angle arcs. On the engine/aircraft system level, the redesigned CRP demonstrated a reduction of 9.2 dB in effective perceived noise (EPNdB) and 8.6 EPNdB at the Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) 36 flyover and sideline observer locations, respectively. The results suggest that advanced open rotor designs can possibly meet Stage 4 noise requirements.

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