scholarly journals Rainy-Season Duration Estimated from OLR versus Rain Gauge Data and the 2001 Drought in Southeast Brazil

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1493-1499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio H. Franchito ◽  
V. Brahmananda Rao ◽  
Paulo R. B. Barbieri ◽  
Clovis M. E. Santo
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Energy Crisis ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Large precipitation deficits observed during the 2001 austral summer over the southeast region of Brazil contributed to the worsening of the energy crisis that was occurring in the country, with unprecedented social and economic consequences. Reliable information on the beginning of the rainy season was essential for the Brazilian government to manage the energy crisis. The purpose of this study is to determine the rainy season in this region and to point out the risk of using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data to estimate the beginning of it. The results show that when OLR data are used the beginning and the end dates of the rainy season are wrongly anticipated and delayed, respectively. The present study aims to provide useful information for the management of the impact of adverse climate conditions such as the one in 2001 by basing the analysis on rainfall data instead of on OLR.

Validation of atmospheric reanalyses over the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, using observations from drifting buoys

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John King ◽  
Gareth Marshall ◽  
Steve Colwell ◽  
Clare Allen-Sader ◽  
Tony Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Snow Layer ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Drifting Buoys

<p> </p><p>Global atmospheric reanalyses are frequently used to drive ocean-ice models but few data are available to assess the quality of these products in the Antarctic sea ice zone. We utilise measurements from three drifting buoys that were deployed on sea ice in the southern Weddell Sea in the austral summer of 2016 to validate the representation of near-surface atmospheric conditions in the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The buoys carried sensors to measure atmospheric pressure, air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction, and downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation. One buoy remained in coastal fast ice for most of 2016 while the other two drifted northward through the austral winter and exited the pack ice during the following austral summer. Comparison of buoy measurements with reanalysis data indicates that both reanalyses represent the surface pressure field in this region accurately. Reanalysis temperatures are, however, biased warm by around 2 °C in both products, with the largest biases seen at the lowest temperatures. We suggest that this bias is a result of the simplified representation of sea ice in the reanalyses, in particular the lack of an insulating snow layer on top of the ice. We use a simple surface energy balance model to investigate the impact of the reanalysis biases on sea ice thermodynamics.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonality and Regionality of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, Kelvin Wave, and Equatorial Rossby Wave

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 4400-4416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirohiko Masunaga
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Water Solution ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Dynamical Structure ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin wave, and equatorial Rossby (ER) wave—collectively called intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs)—are investigated using a 25-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements as well as the associated dynamical fields. The ISO modes are detected by applying bandpass filters to the OLR data in the frequency–wavenumber space. An automated wave-tracking algorithm is applied to each ISO mode so that convection centers accompanied with the ISOs are traced in space and time in an objective fashion. The identified paths of the individual ISO modes are first examined and found strongly modulated regionally and seasonally. The dynamical structure is composited with respect to the convection centers of each ISO mode. A baroclinic mode of the combined Rossby and Kelvin structure is prominent for the MJO, consistent with existing work. The Kelvin wave exhibits a low-level wind field resembling the shallow-water solution, while a slight lead of low-level convergence over convection suggests the impact of frictional boundary layer convergence on Kelvin wave dynamics. A lagged composite analysis reveals that the MJO is accompanied with a Kelvin wave approaching from the west preceding the MJO convective maximum in austral summer. MJO activity then peaks as the Kelvin and ER waves constructively interfere to enhance off-equatorial boundary layer convergence. The MJO leaves a Kelvin wave emanating to the east once the peak phase is passed. The approaching Kelvin wave prior to the development of MJO convection is absent in boreal summer and fall. The composite ER wave, loosely concentrated around the MJO, is nearly stationary throughout. A possible scenario to physically translate the observed result is also discussed.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a Mesoscale Model to Microphysical Parameterizations in the MAP SOP Events IOP2b and IOP8

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 1438-1454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Serafin ◽  
Rossella Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
State University ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different microphysical parameterizations is investigated for two events of precipitation in the Mediterranean region, that is, the Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP) intensive observation periods (IOP) 2b (19–21 September 1999) and 8 (20–22 October 1999). Simulations are performed with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5); the most commonly used bulk microphysical parameterization schemes are evaluated, with a particular focus on their impact on the forecast of rainfall. To evaluate the forecast skill, the verification is carried out quantitatively by using the observations recorded by a high-resolution rain gauge network during the MAP campaign. The results show that, for the surface rainfall forecast, all microphysical schemes produce a similar precipitation field and none of them perform significantly better than the others. The ability of different schemes to reproduce events with different ongoing microphysical processes is briefly discussed by comparing model simulations and knowledge of hydrometeor fields from radar observations. The vertical profiles of hydrometeors from two of the analyzed schemes show gross similarities with available radar observations. Last, the role of one of the parameterizations appearing in a typical bulk microphysical scheme, that is, the one of the snowfall speed, is evaluated in detail. Adjustments in the semiempirical relationships describing the fall speed of snow particles have a large impact, because a reduced snowfall speed enhances precipitation on the lee side of mountain ridges and diminishes it on the windward side. Anyway, this effect does not appear to be able to largely improve or reduce the forecast skill of the MM5 systematically; the impact of changes in the parameterization of the snow deposition velocity very likely depends on the dynamics of the event under investigation.

scholarly journals Agriculture of the Australian Union: Challenges, Responses, Tasks Ahead

2021 ◽  
pp. 254-267
Author(s):  
Kseniya A. Spitsina ◽  
◽  
Anastasiya A. Shikunova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
The Troubles ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Trade Regimes ◽  
Agriculture Products ◽  
Product Sales ◽  
The Impact

The article analyses the current state of agriculture industry in the Australian Union. It examines the impact of miscellaneous factors, such as natural disasters, climate conditions, the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the establishment of regional free trade regimes, as well as the degree of their implementation. The paper reveals the specificity of the entry of Australian agriculture products into the markets of China, South Korea and Japan along with the development of agriculture in Australia and the efforts made by the Australian government and business community to overcome the troubles the industry suffered from in 2018-2020. In the authors’ opinion, the growing tensions in trade and economic relations between the Australian Union and the PRC affect the overall situation of Australian agriculture. In its turn, this incentivizes Canberra to explore new sources of agriculture product sales and expand cooperation with other partners.

scholarly journals Production of Rice in Nigeria: The Role of Indian-Nigerian Bilateral Cooperation in Food Security

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 138-150
Author(s):  
I. U. Lucky
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Bilateral Agreements ◽  
External Relations ◽  
Land Cultivation ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The article focuses on the impact of India-Nigeria agricultural cooperation on rice production in Nigeria. Since 2000 in the quest for food sufficiency, diversification of the country’s sources of foreign exchange, increasing employment for the rising population as well as expanding its external relations Nigeria has signed several bilateral agreements on agriculture with India. The analysis of the developments in the sub-sector, as well as media, governmental and non-governmental reports in the field and the interviews of the farmers has revealed that the Indian firms, including “Olam Group” and “Popular Farms and Mills Ltd”, have cultivated thousands of hectares of land, built mills and machinery, provided farmers in 16 Nigerian states with better rice seedlings, and engaged thousands of farmers in regular training improving employment and revitalizing communities in the country. The support given by the Indian firms has triggered an unprecedented increase in rice production. The paper concludes that the agreements, particularly the one of 2017, have further promoted, strengthened and expanded rice production in the context of food security, job creation and saving foreign exchange. The article, therefore, demonstrates how Nigeria-India bilateral ties and cooperative programs have changed the dynamics of rice production in the country and brought more profound economic consequences. Despite the fact that Nigeria is not yet selfsufficient in rice production with the gap of around 2.5 million tonnes, the agricultural programs initiated within the framework of the Nigeria-India bilateral agreements and realized as large-scale agriculture programmes including investments, training, supply of better seedlings, land cultivation promoted by powerful corporations have significantly changed the economic and social environment in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Decomposing the notion of vine vigour with a proxydetection shoot sensor: Physiocap®

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 03003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constance DEMESTIHAS ◽  
Sébastien DEBUISSON ◽  
Arnaud DESCOTES
Keyword(s):  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Soil Tillage ◽  
Biomass Estimation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Shoot Number ◽  
The One ◽  
Spring Frosts ◽  
The Impact

The vigour and the vegetative expression of grapevines are parameters of great interest in viticulture, as they describe a general state of growth capacity. Understanding the impacts of agricultural practices on vine vigour, under particular soil and climate conditions, is essential to give a more accurate technical advice, especially on what soil management and vine nutrition are concerned. A shoot sensor called Physiocap®, designed and developed by the CIVC (Comité interprofessionel du vin de Champagne), is used during dormancy season to measure the shoot section, the shoot number and an estimation of the aboveground biomass. The sensor maps vigour spatial variability within a plot, among plots and over years. Physiocap database in Champagne has been analysed since 2011 at different scales, in order to determine the factors impacting the vine vigour. The vintage appeared to be the most impacting factor. For example, climate variability or accidents like dry springs and early spring frosts reduce vine vigour. Champagne vine varieties did not significantly impact vine vigour according to the database. At the scale of the Champagne vineyard, the aboveground biomass estimation of Physiocap® was strongly correlated with the yield of the following year, leaving a promising basis for analysing the impact of different factors on vine vigour. At the scale of the plot, winegrowers are able to compare their plot vigour to a Champagne threshold, which is being refined every year as the Physiocap database is enriched. They can therefore manage their fertilization and soil tillage program more accurately according to their objectives. The Physiocap® sensor appears to be an interesting multidimensional tool binding vine physiology, agronomy and precision viticulture at different scales. When coupled with other data, especially the one describing soil characteristics, it could even be the baseline for creating a decision-aid tool in Champagne for fertilization, tillage and pruning practices.

scholarly journals On the Sensitivity of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. 5833-5847 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Abhik ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Matthew C. Wheeler
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Horizontal Structure ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Mechanism Of Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The seasonal-mean variance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in austral summer has recently been shown to be significantly (p < 5%) enhanced during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The impact is large, with the mean MJO variance increasing by ~50% compared to the QBO westerly phase. In contrast, we show using observed outgoing longwave radiation that seasonal variations for convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, Rossby, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves are insensitive to the QBO. This insensitivity extends to all high-frequency (2–30-day period) and the non-MJO component of the intraseasonal (30–120-day period) convective variance. However, convectively coupled Kelvin wave variability shows a modest increase (~13%) that is marginally significant (p = 10%) during easterly phases of the QBO in austral autumn, when Kelvin wave activity is seasonally strongest along the equator. The mechanism of impact on the Kelvin wave appears to be similar to what has previously been argued for the MJO during austral summer. However, the more tilted and shallower vertical structure of the Kelvin waves suggests that they cannot tap into the extra destabilization at the tropopause provided by the easterly phase of the QBO as effectively as the MJO. Lack of impact on the convectively coupled Rossby and mixed Rossby–gravity waves is argued to stem from their horizontal structure that results in weaker divergent anomalies along the equator, where the QBO impact is greatest. Our results further emphasize that the MJO in austral summer is uniquely affected by the QBO.

Fiscal Straitjacket: The Politics of Macroeconomic Reform in Brazil, 1995–2002

2003 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 545-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID SAMUELS
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Success Stories ◽  
Spending Patterns ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Internal Debt

Brazil's President Fernando Henrique Cardoso will be remembered for his administration's accomplishments as well as the problems his government left unresolved. On the one hand, fiscal policy represents one of Cardoso's success stories: the Plano Real curbed inflation, established economic stability, and enabled the central government to rein in subnational governments' out-of-control spending patterns, which had been a key source of macroeconomic instability. However, the question remains whether Brazil can truly escape from the political and economic consequences of past fiscal profligacy. Despite many successes, Cardoso's own policies have created additional obstacles that future administrations will necessarily confront, in particular a dramatic increase in Brazil's internal debt. Observers of Brazil should count both sides of the accounting ledger when evaluating the Cardoso administration. Much has been gained, but the costs of those gains must be recognised and the impact of those gains on the range of policy choice available to future administrations understood. This article explores the factors that contributed to Brazil's macroeconomic difficulties prior to 1995, and then explores how the Plano Real provided the Cardoso administration with leverage to constrain the capacity of subnational actors to affect Brazil's economy. Subsequently, however, the paper describes how the Cardoso administration's policies have created Brazil's current ‘fiscal straitjacket’, and concludes by discussing how Cardoso's policies will constrain future administrations.

scholarly journals Economic Consequences of Population Morbidity

2021 ◽  
pp. 90-99
Author(s):  
Artem Viktorovich Petrov ◽  
Mariia Vital’evna Panova ◽  
Vladislav Rimovich Varshavskij ◽  
Inessa Makedonovna Kalyakina ◽  
Arni Irawaty Djais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Antiviral Agents ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Productive Force ◽  
The One ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
The Impact

In the modern world, the morbidity of the population plays an important role in the dynamics of economic processes. On the one hand, significant government expenditures on providing the necessary medical care and medicines to citizens directly or indirectly affect the dynamics of budget expenditures. On the other hand, state guarantees for financial support of citizens during their disability are also a costly budget item. Finally, global disasters such as pandemics certainly damage the economies of entire states in particular and the world as a whole. The purpose of the work is to consider the features of the economic consequences of population morbidity. According to the results of the study, it should be concluded that the morbidity of citizens of any country is always the reason for the state's expenses for their treatment and rehabilitation. At the same time, it is quite profitable for the state that citizens again acquire the necessary working capacity, since this directly affects the amount of taxes received by the state Treasury. At the same time, favorable working conditions significantly reduce the morbidity of the population and the occurrence of disability, which also, while reducing the cost of treatment and restoring the health of citizens, contributes to maintaining an appropriate level of taxation. However, the morbidity of the population – the main productive force of any country-can be associated with the development of various kinds of epidemics and pandemics, when the spread of infection partially paralyzes the economy. Outbreaks of infectious diseases can easily cross borders and threaten economic stability. The current outbreak of human coronavirus (COVID-19) is a reminder of this threat. The constant adaptation of microbes, as well as their ability to develop and become resistant to antibacterial and antiviral agents, ensures that infectious diseases will continue to be a constant and ever-changing economic threat. Consequently, the assessment of these threats is important to inform households, governments and businesses about potential economic shocks as a result of outbreaks of infectious diseases. The purpose of the study is to determine the degree of economic consequences of population morbidity in the modern world. The objectives of the study should include: - identification of the impact of population morbidity on the economy of a country; - analysis of the scale of economic consequences for countries as a result of the spread of infectious diseases; - assessment of the possibility of reducing the negative impact of population morbidity on the economy of countries.

scholarly journals Production of Rice in Nigeria: The Role of Indian-Nigerian Bilateral Cooperation in Food Security

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 138-150
Author(s):  
I. U. Lucky
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Bilateral Agreements ◽  
External Relations ◽  
Land Cultivation ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The article focuses on the impact of India-Nigeria agricultural cooperation on rice production in Nigeria. Since 2000 in the quest for food sufficiency, diversification of the country’s sources of foreign exchange, increasing employment for the rising population as well as expanding its external relations Nigeria has signed several bilateral agreements on agriculture with India. The analysis of the developments in the sub-sector, as well as media, governmental and non-governmental reports in the field and the interviews of the farmers has revealed that the Indian firms, including “Olam Group” and “Popular Farms and Mills Ltd”, have cultivated thousands of hectares of land, built mills and machinery, provided farmers in 16 Nigerian states with better rice seedlings, and engaged thousands of farmers in regular training improving employment and revitalizing communities in the country. The support given by the Indian firms has triggered an unprecedented increase in rice production. The paper concludes that the agreements, particularly the one of 2017, have further promoted, strengthened and expanded rice production in the context of food security, job creation and saving foreign exchange. The article, therefore, demonstrates how Nigeria-India bilateral ties and cooperative programs have changed the dynamics of rice production in the country and brought more profound economic consequences. Despite the fact that Nigeria is not yet selfsufficient in rice production with the gap of around 2.5 million tonnes, the agricultural programs initiated within the framework of the Nigeria-India bilateral agreements and realized as large-scale agriculture programmes including investments, training, supply of better seedlings, land cultivation promoted by powerful corporations have significantly changed the economic and social environment in Nigeria.

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