scholarly journals Short-Range Precipitation Forecasts from Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensembles during the HMT-West-2006 Campaign

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiling Yuan ◽  
John A. McGinley ◽  
Paul J. Schultz ◽  
Christopher J. Anderson ◽  
Chungu Lu
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Calibration Methods ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
Multimodel Ensembles

Abstract High-resolution (3 km) time-lagged (initialized every 3 h) multimodel ensembles were produced in support of the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)-West-2006 campaign in northern California, covering the American River basin (ARB). Multiple mesoscale models were used, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Short-range (6 h) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) were compared to the 4-km NCEP stage IV precipitation analyses for archived intensive operation periods (IOPs). The two sets of ensemble runs (operational and rerun forecasts) were examined to evaluate the quality of high-resolution QPFs produced by time-lagged multimodel ensembles and to investigate the impacts of ensemble configurations on forecast skill. Uncertainties in precipitation forecasts were associated with different models, model physics, and initial and boundary conditions. The diabatic initialization by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) helped precipitation forecasts, while the selection of microphysics was critical in ensemble design. Probability biases in the ensemble products were addressed by calibrating PQPFs. Using artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression (LR) methods, the bias correction of PQPFs and a cross-validation procedure were applied to three operational IOPs and four rerun IOPs. Both the ANN and LR methods effectively improved PQPFs, especially for lower thresholds. The LR method outperformed the ANN method in bias correction, in particular for a smaller training data size. More training data (e.g., one-season forecasts) are desirable to test the robustness of both calibration methods.

scholarly journals Short-Range (0–12 h) PQPFs from Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensembles Using LAPS

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (5) ◽  
pp. 1496-1516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui-Ling Chang ◽  
Huiling Yuan ◽  
Pay-Liam Lin
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Training Samples ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
Multimodel Ensembles

This study pioneers the development of short-range (0–12 h) probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) in Taiwan and aims to produce the PQPFs from time-lagged multimodel ensembles using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS). By doing so, the critical uncertainties in prediction processes can be captured and conveyed to the users. Since LAPS adopts diabatic data assimilation, it is utilized to mitigate the “spinup” problem and produce more accurate precipitation forecasts during the early prediction stage (0–6 h). The LAPS ensemble prediction system (EPS) has a good spread–skill relationship and good discriminating ability. Therefore, though it is obviously wet biased, the forecast biases can be corrected to improve the skill of PQPFs through a linear regression (LR) calibration procedure. Sensitivity experiments for two important factors affecting calibration results are also conducted: the experiments on different training samples and the experiments on the accuracy of observation data. The first point reveals that the calibration results vary with training samples. Based on the statistical viewpoint, there should be enough samples for an effective calibration. Nevertheless, adopting more training samples does not necessarily produce better calibration results. It is essential to adopt training samples with similar forecast biases as validation samples to achieve better calibration results. The second factor indicates that as a result of the inconsistency of observation data accuracy in the sea and land areas, only separate calibration for these two areas can ensure better calibration results of the PQPFs.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiling Yuan ◽  
Chungu Lu ◽  
John A. McGinley ◽  
Paul J. Schultz ◽  
Brian D. Jamison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts ◽  
Time Lagged

Abstract Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ensemble members. In conjunction with a frequently cycling data assimilation system using a diabatic initialization [such as the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)], the time-lagged multimodel ensemble system offers a particularly appealing approach for QPF and PQPF applications. Using the NCEP stage IV precipitation analyses for verification, 6-h QPFs and PQPFs from this system are assessed during the period of March–May 2005 over the west-central United States. The ensemble system was initialized by hourly LAPS runs at a horizontal resolution of 12 km using two mesoscale models, including the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic core. The 6-h PQPFs from this system provide better performance than the NCEP operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) deterministic runs at 12-km resolution, even though individual members of the MM5 or WRF models perform comparatively worse than the NAM forecasts at higher thresholds and longer lead times. Recalibration was conducted to reduce the intensity errors in time-lagged members. In spite of large biases and spatial displacement errors in the MM5 and WRF forecasts, statistical verification of QPFs and PQPFs shows more skill at longer lead times by adding more members from earlier initialized forecast cycles. Combing the two models only reduced the forecast biases. The results suggest that further studies on time-lagged multimodel ensembles for operational forecasts are needed.

Radiance Preprocessing for Assimilation in the Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Mesoscale Model: A Study Using AIRS Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1781-1800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haidao Lin ◽  
Stephen S. Weygandt ◽  
Agnes H. N. Lim ◽  
Ming Hu ◽  
John M. Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Channel Selection ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Satellite Systems ◽  
Initial Application ◽  
Radiance Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study describes the initial application of radiance bias correction and channel selection in the hourly updated Rapid Refresh model. For this initial application, data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are used; this dataset gives atmospheric temperature and water vapor information at higher vertical resolution and accuracy than previously launched low-spectral resolution satellite systems. In this preliminary study, data from AIRS are shown to add skill to short-range weather forecasts over a relatively data-rich area. Two 1-month retrospective runs were conducted to evaluate the impact of assimilating clear-sky AIRS radiance data on 1–12-h forecasts using a research version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Rapid Refresh (RAP) regional mesoscale model already assimilating conventional and other radiance [AMSU-A, Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), HIRS-4] data. Prior to performing the assimilation, a channel selection and bias-correction spinup procedure was conducted that was appropriate for the RAP configuration. RAP forecasts initialized from analyses with and without AIRS data were verified against radiosonde, surface atmosphere, precipitation, and satellite radiance observations. Results show that the impact from AIRS radiance data on short-range forecast skill in the RAP system is small but positive and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The RAP-specific channel selection and bias correction procedures described in this study were the basis for similar applications to other radiance datasets now assimilated in version 3 of RAP implemented at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in August 2016.

scholarly journals Verification and Calibration of Neighborhood and Object-Based Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from a Multimodel Convection-Allowing Ensemble

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (9) ◽  
pp. 3054-3077 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Johnson ◽  
Xuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Calibration Methods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Two Parameter

Abstract Neighborhood and object-based probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a convection-allowing ensemble are verified and calibrated. Calibration methods include logistic regression, one- and two-parameter reliability-based calibration, and cumulative distribution function (CDF)-based bias adjustment. Newly proposed object-based probabilistic forecasts for the occurrence of a forecast object are derived from the percentage of ensemble members with a matching object. Verification and calibration of single- and multimodel subensembles are performed to explore the effect of using multiple models. The uncalibrated neighborhood-based probabilistic forecasts have skill minima during the afternoon convective maximum. Calibration generally improves the skill, especially during the skill minima, resulting in positive skill. In general all calibration methods perform similarly, with a slight advantage of logistic regression (one-parameter reliability based) calibration for 1-h (6 h) accumulations. The uncalibrated object-based probabilistic forecasts are, in general, less skillful than the uncalibrated neighborhood-based probabilistic forecasts. Object-based calibration also results in positive skill at all lead times. For object-based calibration the skill is significantly different among the calibration methods, with the logistic regression performing the best and CDF-based bias adjustment performing the worst. For both the neighborhood and object-based probabilistic forecasts, the impact of using 10 or 25 days of training data for calibration is generally small and is most significant for the two-parameter reliability-based method. An uncalibrated Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) subensemble is significantly more skillful than an uncalibrated WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) subensemble. The difference is reduced by calibration. The multimodel subensemble only shows an advantage for the neighborhood-based forecasts beyond 1-day lead time and shows no advantage for the object-based forecasts.

scholarly journals Assessing Riyadh’s Urban Change Utilizing High-Resolution Imagery

Land ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Ali Alghamdi ◽  
Anthony R. Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Accuracy Assessment ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Training Data ◽  
High Resolution Imagery ◽  
Significant Research ◽  
Desert Areas ◽  
Spot 5

The implications of change on local processes have attracted significant research interest in recent times. In urban settings, green spaces and forests have attracted much attention. Here, we present an assessment of change within the predominantly desert Middle Eastern city of Riyadh, an understudied setting. We utilized high-resolution SPOT 5 data and two classification techniques—maximum likelihood classification and object-oriented classification—to study the changes in Riyadh between 2004 and 2014. Imagery classification was completed with training data obtained from the SPOT 5 dataset, and an accuracy assessment was completed through a combination of field surveys and an application developed in ESRI Survey 123 tool. The Survey 123 tool allowed residents of Riyadh to present their views on land cover for the 2004 and 2014 imagery. Our analysis showed that soil or ‘desert’ areas were converted to roads and buildings to accommodate for Riyadh’s rapidly growing population. The object-oriented classifier provided higher overall accuracy than the maximum likelihood classifier (74.71% and 73.79% vs. 92.36% and 90.77% for 2004 and 2014). Our work provides insights into the changes within a desert environment and establishes a foundation for understanding change in this understudied setting.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals New Approach for Bias Correction and Stochastic Downscaling of Future Projections for Daily Mean Temperatures to a High-Resolution Grid

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (12) ◽  
pp. 2617-2632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qifen Yuan ◽  
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir ◽  
Stein Beldring ◽  
Wai Kwok Wong ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Product ◽  
Temporal Features ◽  
Stochastic Downscaling

AbstractIn applications of climate information, coarse-resolution climate projections commonly need to be downscaled to a finer grid. One challenge of this requirement is the modeling of subgrid variability and the spatial and temporal dependence at the finer scale. Here, a postprocessing procedure for temperature projections is proposed that addresses this challenge. The procedure employs statistical bias correction and stochastic downscaling in two steps. In the first step, errors that are related to spatial and temporal features of the first two moments of the temperature distribution at model scale are identified and corrected. Second, residual space–time dependence at the finer scale is analyzed using a statistical model, from which realizations are generated and then combined with an appropriate climate change signal to form the downscaled projection fields. Using a high-resolution observational gridded data product, the proposed approach is applied in a case study in which projections of two regional climate models from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment–European Domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble are bias corrected and downscaled to a 1 km × 1 km grid in the Trøndelag area of Norway. A cross-validation study shows that the proposed procedure generates results that better reflect the marginal distributional properties of the data product and have better consistency in space and time when compared with empirical quantile mapping.

scholarly journals Drill-Core Mineral Abundance Estimation Using Hyperspectral and High-Resolution Mineralogical Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1218
Author(s):  
Laura Tuşa ◽  
Mahdi Khodadadzadeh ◽  
Cecilia Contreras ◽  
Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi ◽  
Margret Fuchs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Ore Deposits ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Drill Core ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Mineralogical Characterization ◽  
Core Samples

Due to the extensive drilling performed every year in exploration campaigns for the discovery and evaluation of ore deposits, drill-core mapping is becoming an essential step. While valuable mineralogical information is extracted during core logging by on-site geologists, the process is time consuming and dependent on the observer and individual background. Hyperspectral short-wave infrared (SWIR) data is used in the mining industry as a tool to complement traditional logging techniques and to provide a rapid and non-invasive analytical method for mineralogical characterization. Additionally, Scanning Electron Microscopy-based image analyses using a Mineral Liberation Analyser (SEM-MLA) provide exhaustive high-resolution mineralogical maps, but can only be performed on small areas of the drill-cores. We propose to use machine learning algorithms to combine the two data types and upscale the quantitative SEM-MLA mineralogical data to drill-core scale. This way, quasi-quantitative maps over entire drill-core samples are obtained. Our upscaling approach increases result transparency and reproducibility by employing physical-based data acquisition (hyperspectral imaging) combined with mathematical models (machine learning). The procedure is tested on 5 drill-core samples with varying training data using random forests, support vector machines and neural network regression models. The obtained mineral abundance maps are further used for the extraction of mineralogical parameters such as mineral association.

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