scholarly journals Storms and Lightning Activity in Greece during the Warm Periods of 2003–06

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 3089-3098 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Mazarakis ◽  
V. Kotroni ◽  
K. Lagouvardos ◽  
A. A. Argiriou
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Terrain Features

Abstract Lightning activity over Greece during the warm season (May–September) of the years 2003–06 is investigated in relation to the synoptic meteorological conditions that prevailed in the region. The study is based on the use of cloud-to-ground lightning activity data from the Met Office Arrival Time Difference system and upper-air analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Analysis of the spatial variability of lightning shows that the highest “relative” flash densities are observed in northern and western Greece and in central and western Peloponnissos. The relative flash density is correlated with elevation: it increases with elevation along the slopes of terrain features. The study of the synoptic patterns related to lightning is based on the analysis of 60 active days and 60 inactive days in terms of lightning activity over Greece. The days with high lightning activity are characterized by a short-wave trough at the 500-hPa level over the Ionian Sea. On the other hand, during the days with no lightning, a northwest flow prevails over Greece. It was also found that high lightning activity is related to high values of absolute vorticity, equivalent potential temperature, and convective available potential energy.

scholarly journals Relationships between Updraft Characteristics and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity in Warm-Season Convective Storms in the Kanto Region, Japan

SOLA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (0) ◽  
pp. 177-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Namiko Sakurai ◽  
Shingo Shimizu ◽  
Yukari Shusse ◽  
Shin-ichi Suzuki ◽  
Takeshi Maesaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warm Season ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Kanto Region

scholarly journals Terrain Effects on Regional Precipitation in a Warm Season over Qinling-Daba Mountains in Central China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1685
Author(s):  
Xiaofei Li ◽  
Ninglian Wang ◽  
Zhanhao Wu
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Terrain Effects ◽  
Time Period

The terrain effects of Qinling–Daba Mountains on reginal precipitation during a warm season were investigated in a two-month day-to-day experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. According to the results from the terrain sensitivity experiment with lowered mountains, Qinling–Daba Mountains have been found to have an obvious effect on both the spatial-temporal distribution and diurnal cycle of reginal precipitation from July to August in 2019, where the Qinling Mountains mainly enhanced the precipitation around 34° N, and the Daba Mountains mainly enhanced it around 32° N at the time period of early morning and midnight. Horizontal distribution of water vapor and convective available potential energy (CAPE), as well as cross section of vertical velocity of wind and potential temperature has been studied to examine the key mechanisms for these two mountains’ effect. The existence of Qinling Mountains intercepted transportation of water vapor from South to North in the lower troposphere to across 34° N and caused an obvious enhancement of CAPE in the neighborhood, while the Daba Mountains intercepted the northward water vapor transportation to across 32° N and caused an enhanced CAPE nearby. The time period of the influence is in a good accordance with the diurnal cycle. In the cross-section, the existence of Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains are found to stimulate the upward motion and unstable environment effectively at around 34° N and 32° N, separately. As a result, the existence of the two mountains lead to a favorable environment in water vapor, thermodynamic, and dynamic conditions for this warm season precipitation.

NAM Model Forecasts of Warm-Season Quasi-Stationary Frontal Environments in the Central United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1281-1292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shih-Yu Wang ◽  
Adam J. Clark
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Central United States

Abstract Using a composite procedure, North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) forecast and observed environments associated with zonally oriented, quasi-stationary surface fronts for 64 cases during July–August 2006–08 were examined for a large region encompassing the central United States. NAM adequately simulated the general synoptic features associated with the frontal environments (e.g., patterns in the low-level wind fields) as well as the positions of the fronts. However, kinematic fields important to frontogenesis such as horizontal deformation and convergence were overpredicted. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water were also overpredicted, which was likely related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields through convergence of water vapor flux. In addition, a spurious coherence between forecast deformation and precipitation was found using spatial correlation coefficients. Composite precipitation forecasts featured a broad area of rainfall stretched parallel to the composite front, whereas the composite observed precipitation covered a smaller area and had a WNW–ESE orientation relative to the front, consistent with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating at a slight right angle relative to the thermal gradient. Thus, deficiencies in the NAM precipitation forecasts may at least partially result from the inability to depict MCSs properly. It was observed that errors in the precipitation forecasts appeared to lag those of the kinematic fields, and so it seems likely that deficiencies in the precipitation forecasts are related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields such as deformation. However, no attempts were made to establish whether the overpredicted kinematic fields actually contributed to the errors in the precipitation forecasts or whether the overpredicted kinematic fields were simply an artifact of the precipitation errors. Regardless of the relationship between such errors, recognition of typical warm-season environments associated with these errors should be useful to operational forecasters.

scholarly journals A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 914
Author(s):  
Tao Chen ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
South China ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Atmospheric Parameter ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Warm Sector

In view of the limited predictability of heavy rainfall (HR) events and the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the initiation and organization of the associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a composite analysis of 58 HR events over the warm sector (i.e., far ahead of the surface cold front), referred to as WSHR events, over South China during the months of April to June 2008~2014 is performed in terms of precipitation, large-scale circulations, pre-storm environmental conditions, and MCS types. Results show that the large-scale circulations of the WSHR events can be categorized into pre-frontal, southwesterly warm and moist ascending airflow, and low-level vortex types, with higher frequency occurrences of the former two types. Their pre-storm environments are characterized by a deep moist layer with >50 mm column-integrated precipitable water, high convective available potential energy with the equivalent potential temperature of ≥340 K at 850 hPa, weak vertical wind shear below 400 hPa, and a low-level jet near 925 hPa with weak warm advection, based on atmospheric parameter composite. Three classes of the corresponding MCSs, exhibiting peak convective activity in the afternoon and the early morning hours, can be identified as linear-shaped, a leading convective line adjoined with trailing stratiform rainfall, and comma-shaped, respectively. It is found that many linear-shaped MCSs in coastal regions are triggered by local topography, enhanced by sea breezes, whereas the latter two classes of MCSs experience isentropic lifting in the southwesterly warm and moist flows. They all develop in large-scale environments with favorable quasi-geostrophic forcing, albeit weak. Conceptual models are finally developed to facilitate our understanding and prediction of the WSHR events over South China.

scholarly journals Cloud-to-ground lightning in Portugal: patterns and dynamical forcing

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 639-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Santos ◽  
M. A. Reis ◽  
J. Sousa ◽  
S. M. Leite ◽  
S. Correia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Number Of Discharges ◽  
Low Pressures ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. An analysis of the cloud-to-ground discharges (CGD) over Portugal is carried out using data collected by a network of sensors maintained by the Portuguese Meteorological Institute for 2003–2009 (7 yr). Only cloud-to-ground flashes are considered and negative polarity CGD are largely dominant. The total number of discharges reveals a considerable interannual variability and a large irregularity in their distribution throughout the year. However, it is shown that a large number of discharges occur in the May–September period (71%), with a bimodal distribution that peaks in May and September, with most of the lightning activity recorded in the afternoon (from 16:00 to 18:00 UTC). In spring and autumn the lightning activity tends to be scattered throughout the country, whereas in summer it tends to be more concentrated over northeastern Portugal. Winter generally presents low lightning activity. Furthermore, two significant couplings between the monthly number of days with discharges and the large-scale atmospheric circulation are isolated: a regional forcing, predominantly in summer, and a remote forcing. In fact, the identification of daily lightning regimes revealed three important atmospheric conditions for triggering lightning activity: regional cut-off lows, cold troughs induced by remote low pressure systems and summertime regional low pressures at low-tropospheric levels combined with a mid-tropospheric cold trough.

scholarly journals Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Mesoscale Forecasts of Dryline Convection Initiation

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (11) ◽  
pp. 4161-4182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron J. Hill ◽  
Christopher C. Weiss ◽  
Brian C. Ancell
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Dynamic Features ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Antecedent Precipitation ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract Two cases of dryline convection initiation (CI) over north Texas have been simulated (3 April 2012 and 15 May 2013) from a 50-member WRF-DART ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) ensemble. In this study, ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is applied to a convective forecast metric, maximum composite reflectivity (referred to as the response function), as a simple proxy for CI to analyze dynamic mesoscale sensitivities at the surface and aloft. Analysis reveals positional and magnitude sensitivities related to the strength and placement of important dynamic features. Convection initiation is sensitive to the evolving temperature and dewpoint fields upstream of the forecast response region in the near-CI time frame (0–12 h), prior to initiation. The sensitivity to thermodynamics is also manifest in the magnitude of dewpoint gradients along the dryline that triggers the convection. ESA additionally highlights the importance of antecedent precipitation and cold pool generation that modifies the pre-CI environment. Aloft, sensitivity of CI to a weak short-wave trough and capping inversion-level temperature is coherent, consistent, and traceable through the entire forecast period. Notwithstanding the (often) non-Gaussian distribution of ensemble member forecasts of convection, which violate the underpinnings of ESA theory, ESA is demonstrated to sufficiently identify regions that influence dryline CI. These results indicate an application of ESA for severe storm forecasting at operational centers and forecast offices as well as other mesoscale forecasting applications.

scholarly journals Distinct aerosol effects on cloud-to-ground lightning in the plateau and basin regions of Sichuan, Southwest China

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 13379-13397
Author(s):  
Pengguo Zhao ◽  
Zhanqing Li ◽  
Hui Xiao ◽  
Fang Wu ◽  
Youtong Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Freezing Process ◽  
Plateau Region ◽  
Freezing Level ◽  
Aerosol Loading ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Basin Region ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Cg Lightning

Abstract. The joint effects of aerosol, thermodynamic, and cloud-related factors on cloud-to-ground lightning in Sichuan were investigated by a comprehensive analysis of ground-based measurements made from 2005 to 2017 in combination with reanalysis data. Data include aerosol optical depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning density, convective available potential energy (CAPE), mid-level relative humidity, lower- to mid-tropospheric vertical wind shear, cloud-base height, total column liquid water (TCLW), and total column ice water (TCIW). Results show that CG lightning density and aerosols are positively correlated in the plateau region and negatively correlated in the basin region. Sulfate aerosols are found to be more strongly associated with lightning than total aerosols, so this study focuses on the role of sulfate aerosols in lightning activity. In the plateau region, the lower aerosol concentration stimulates lightning activity through microphysical effects. Increasing the aerosol loading decreases the cloud droplet size, reducing the cloud droplet collision–coalescence efficiency and inhibiting the warm-rain process. More small cloud droplets are transported above the freezing level to participate in the freezing process, forming more ice particles and releasing more latent heat during the freezing process. Thus, an increase in the aerosol loading increases CAPE, TCLW, and TCIW, stimulating CG lightning in the plateau region. In the basin region, by contrast, the higher concentration of aerosols inhibits lightning activity through the radiative effect. An increase in the aerosol loading reduces the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground, thereby lowering the CAPE. The intensity of convection decreases, resulting in less supercooled water being transported to the freezing level and fewer ice particles forming, thereby increasing the total liquid water content. Thus, an increase in the aerosol loading suppresses the intensity of convective activity and CG lightning in the basin region.

scholarly journals Understanding Land-Atmosphere-Climate Coupling from the Canadian Prairie Dataset

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan K Betts ◽  
Raymond L Desjardins
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Cloud Forcing

Analysis of the hourly Canadian Prairie data for the past 60 years has transformed our quantitative understanding of land-atmosphere-cloud coupling. The key reason is that trained observers made hourly estimates of opaque cloud fraction that obscures the sun, moon or stars, following the same protocol for 60 years at all stations. These 24 daily estimates of opaque cloud data are of sufficient quality that they can be calibrated against Baseline Surface Radiation Network data to give the climatology of the daily short-wave, longwave and total cloud forcing (SWCF, LWCF and CF). This key radiative forcing has not been available previously for climate datasets. Net cloud radiative forcing reverses sign from negative in the warm season to positive in the cold season, when reflective snow reduces the negative SWCF below the positive LWCF. This in turn leads to a large climate discontinuity with snow cover, with a systematic cooling of 10°C or more with snow cover. In addition, snow cover transforms the coupling between cloud cover and the diurnal range of temperature. In the warm season, maximum temperature increases with decreasing cloud, while minimum temperature barely changes; while in the cold season with snow cover, maximum temperature decreases with decreasing cloud and minimum temperature decreases even more. In the warm season, the diurnal ranges of temperature, relative humidity, equivalent potential temperature and the pressure height of the lifting condensation level are all tightly coupled to opaque cloud cover. Given over 600 station-years of hourly data, we are able to extract, perhaps for the first time, the coupling between cloud forcing and the warm season imbalance of the diurnal cycle; which changes monotonically from a warming and drying under clear skies to a cooling and moistening under cloudy skies with precipitation. Because we have the daily cloud radiative forci, which is large, we are able to show that the memory of water storage anomalies, from precipitation and the snowpack, goes back many months. The spring climatology shows the memory of snowfall back through the entire winter, and the memory in summer goes back to the months of snowmelt. Lagged precipitation anomalies modify the thermodynamic coupling of the diurnal cycle to the cloud forcing, and shift the diurnal cycle of mixing ratio which has a double peak. The seasonal extraction of the surface total water storage is a large damping of the interannual variability of precipitation anomalies in the growing season. The large land-use change from summer fallow to intensive cropping, which peaked in the early 1990s, has led to a coupled climate response that has cooled and moistened the growing season, lowering cloud-base, increasing equivalent potential temperature, and increasing precipitation. We show a simplified energy balance of the Prairies during the growing season and its dependence on reflective cloud.

scholarly journals Ensemble Sensitivity Tools for Assessing Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Predictability

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1133-1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minghua Zheng ◽  
Edmund K. M. Chang ◽  
Brian A. Colle
Keyword(s):  
Wave Packet ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Wave Trough

Abstract This paper applies ensemble sensitivity analysis to a U.S. East Coast snowstorm on 26–28 December 2010 in a way that may be beneficial for an operational forecaster to better understand the forecast uncertainties. Sensitivity using the principal components of the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) on the 50-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble identifies the sensitive regions and weather systems at earlier times associated with the cyclone intensity and track uncertainty separately. The 5.5-day forecast cyclone intensity uncertainty in the ECMWF ensemble is associated with trough and ridge systems over the northeastern Pacific and central United States, respectively, while the track uncertainty is associated with a short-wave trough over the southern Great Plains. Sensitivity based on the ensemble mean sea level pressure difference between two run cycles also suggests that the track's shift between the two cycles is linked with the initial errors in the short-wave trough over the southern Great Plains. The sensitivity approach is run forward in time using forward ensemble regression based on short-range forecast errors, which further confirms that the short-term error over the southern plains trough was associated with the shift in cyclone position between the two forecast cycles. A coherent Rossby wave packet originated from the central North Pacific 6 days before this snowstorm event. The sensitivity signals behave like a wave packet and exhibit the same group velocity of ~29° longitude per day, indicating that Rossby wave packets may have also amplified uncertainty in both the cyclone amplitude and track forecast.

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