Evaluation of the Daylight Cycle of Model-Predicted Cloud Amount and Condensed Water Path over Europe with Observations from MSG SEVIRI

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1749-1766 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Roebeling ◽  
E. van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Condensed Water ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract The evaluation of the diurnal cycle of cloud amount (CA) and cloud condensed water path (CWP) as predicted by climate models receives relatively little attention, mostly because of the lack of observational data capturing the diurnal cycle of such quantities. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the geostationary Meteosat-8 satellite is the first instrument able to provide accurate information on diurnal cycles during daylight hours of cloud properties over land and ocean surfaces. This paper evaluates the daylight cycle of CA and CWP as predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2 (RACMO2), using corresponding SEVIRI retrievals. The study is done for Europe using hourly cloud properties retrievals from SEVIRI during the summer months from May to September 2004. The results of this study show that SEVIRI-retrieved daylight cycles of CA and CWP provide a powerful tool for identifying climate model deficiencies. Over Europe the SEVIRI retrievals of cloud condensed water paths comprise about 80% liquid water and about 20% ice water. The daylight cycles of CA and CWP from SEVIRI show large spatial variations in their mean values and time of daily maximum and daytime-normalized amplitude. In general, RACMO2 overestimates CWP by about 30% and underestimates CA by about 20% as compared to SEVIRI. The largest amplitudes are observed in the Mediterranean and northern Africa. For the greater part of the ocean and coastal areas the time of daily maximum CWP is found during morning, whereas over land this maximum is found after local solar noon. These features are reasonably well captured by RACMO2. In the Mediterranean and continental Europe RACMO2 tends to predict maximum CWP associated with convection to occur about two hours earlier than SEVIRI indicates.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Model-Predicted Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation and Cloud Parameters over Africa with Observations from GERB and SEVIRI

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (15) ◽  
pp. 4015-4036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter Greuell ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard ◽  
Nicolas Clerbaux ◽  
Jan Fokke Meirink
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Cloud Parameters ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Condensed Water ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Abstract This study compared the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2 (RACMO) with satellite data by simultaneously looking at cloud properties and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes. This study used cloud properties retrieved from Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) data and TOA shortwave and longwave outgoing radiative fluxes measured by one of the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) sensors. Both SEVIRI and GERB resolve the diurnal cycle extremely well with 96 images per day. To test the physical parameterizations of the model, RACMO was run for a domain-enclosing Africa and part of the surrounding oceans. Simulations for July 2006, forced at the lateral boundaries by ERA-Interim reanalyses, show generally accurate positioning of the various cloud regimes but also some important model–observation differences, which the authors tried to reduce by altering model parameterizations. These differences are as follows: 1) TOA albedo differences in clear-sky regions like the Sahara and southern Africa. These differences were considerably reduced by prescribing the surface albedo from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. 2) A considerable overestimation of outgoing longwave radiation within the continental ITCZ caused by the fact that modeled cirrus clouds are far too thin. 3) Underestimation by the model of cloud cover, condensed water path and albedo of the stratocumulus fields off the coast of Angola. The authors reduced these underestimations by suppressing the amount of turbulent mixing above the boundary layer, by prescribing droplet radii derived from SEVIRI data, and by assuming in-cloud horizontal homogeneity for the radiation calculations. 4) Overestimation by the model of the albedo of the trade wind cumulus fields over the Atlantic Ocean. This study argues that this overestimation is likely caused by a model overestimation of condensed water path. In general, the analyses demonstrate the power of the simultaneous evaluation of the TOA fluxes and cloud properties.

scholarly journals A comparison of ship and satellite measurements of cloud properties with global climate model simulations in the southeast Pacific stratus deck

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 6527-6536 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Brunke ◽  
S. P. de Szoeke ◽  
P. Zuidema ◽  
X. Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Cloud Thickness

Abstract. Here, liquid water path (LWP), cloud fraction, cloud top height, and cloud base height retrieved by a suite of A-train satellite instruments (the CPR aboard CloudSat, CALIOP aboard CALIPSO, and MODIS aboard Aqua) are compared to ship observations from research cruises made in 2001 and 2003–2007 into the stratus/stratocumulus deck over the southeast Pacific Ocean. It is found that CloudSat radar-only LWP is generally too high over this region and the CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud bases are too low. This results in a relationship (LWP~h9) between CloudSat LWP and CALIPSO cloud thickness (h) that is very different from the adiabatic relationship (LWP~h2) from in situ observations. Such biases can be reduced if LWPs suspected to be contaminated by precipitation are eliminated, as determined by the maximum radar reflectivity Zmax>−15 dBZ in the apparent lower half of the cloud, and if cloud bases are determined based upon the adiabatically-determined cloud thickness (h~LWP1/2). Furthermore, comparing results from a global model (CAM3.1) to ship observations reveals that, while the simulated LWP is quite reasonable, the model cloud is too thick and too low, allowing the model to have LWPs that are almost independent of h. This model can also obtain a reasonable diurnal cycle in LWP and cloud fraction at a location roughly in the centre of this region (20° S, 85° W) but has an opposite diurnal cycle to those observed aboard ship at a location closer to the coast (20° S, 75° W). The diurnal cycle at the latter location is slightly improved in the newest version of the model (CAM4). However, the simulated clouds remain too thick and too low, as cloud bases are usually at or near the surface.

scholarly journals Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1037-1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlson ◽  
Rodrigo Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

2010 ◽  
Vol 368 (1931) ◽  
pp. 5173-5184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Black ◽  
David J. Brayshaw ◽  
Claire M. C. Rambeau
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
First Century ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

scholarly journals Characteristics of cloud liquid water path from SEVIRI on the Meteosat Second Generation 2 satellite for several cloud types

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 8743-8782 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kniffka ◽  
M. Stengel ◽  
M. Lockhoff ◽  
R. Bennartz ◽  
R. Hollmann
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Cloud Type ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Water Path ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. In this study the temporal and spatial characteristics of liquid water path (LWP) of low, middle level and high clouds are analysed using space-based observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation 2 (MSG2) satellite. Both geophysical quantities are part of the dataset CLAAS (CLoud property dAtAset using SEVIRI) and are generated by EUMETSAT's Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF). In this article we focus on the statistical properties of LWP retrieved at daylight associated with the individual cloud type. Our results reveal that each cloud type possesses a characteristic LWP distribution. These frequency distributions are constant with time in the entire SEVIRI field of view, but vary for smaller regions like Central Europe. The average LWP is higher over land than over sea, in case of low clouds 15–27% for 2009 and the variance of the frequency distributions is enhanced. Also, the average diurnal cycle of LWP is related to cloud type where most pronounced diurnal variations were detected for middle level clouds. With SEVIRI it is possible to distinguish between intrinsic LWP variability and variations driven by cloud amount. The relative amplitude of the intrinsic diurnal cycle can exceed the cloud amount driven amplitude.

Cloud Properties and Their Seasonal and Diurnal Variability from TOVS Path-B

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 5531-5553 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Stubenrauch ◽  
A. Chédin ◽  
G. Rädel ◽  
N. A. Scott ◽  
S. Serrar
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Infrared Observation ◽  
Relevant Variable ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Early Afternoon ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

scholarly journals Climate model validation and selection for hydrological applications in representative Mediterranean catchments

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 9105-9145 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Deidda ◽  
M. Marrocu ◽  
G. Caroletti ◽  
G. Pusceddu ◽  
A. Langousis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Ensembles Project ◽  
The Eu

Abstract. This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22-degree (about 24 km) rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean. In the validation period (1951 to 2010) we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the E-OBS dataset, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of 4 RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic) uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the XXI century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, to some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and hint for an audience of researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more in general, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean.

scholarly journals A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4563-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Lewis ◽  
Greg E. Bodeker ◽  
Stefanie Kremser ◽  
Andrew Tait
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Training Phase ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ensemble Projections

Abstract. A method, based on climate pattern scaling, has been developed to expand a small number of projections of fields of a selected climate variable (X) into an ensemble that encapsulates a wide range of indicative model structural uncertainties. The method described in this paper is referred to as the Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC) method. Each ensemble member is constructed by adding contributions from (1) a climatology derived from observations that represents the time-invariant part of the signal; (2) a contribution from forced changes in X, where those changes can be statistically related to changes in global mean surface temperature (Tglobal); and (3) a contribution from unforced variability that is generated by a stochastic weather generator. The patterns of unforced variability are also allowed to respond to changes in Tglobal. The statistical relationships between changes in X (and its patterns of variability) and Tglobal are obtained in a training phase. Then, in an implementation phase, 190 simulations of Tglobal are generated using a simple climate model tuned to emulate 19 different global climate models (GCMs) and 10 different carbon cycle models. Using the generated Tglobal time series and the correlation between the forced changes in X and Tglobal, obtained in the training phase, the forced change in the X field can be generated many times using Monte Carlo analysis. A stochastic weather generator is used to generate realistic representations of weather which include spatial coherence. Because GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) are less likely to correctly represent unforced variability compared to observations, the stochastic weather generator takes as input measures of variability derived from observations, but also responds to forced changes in climate in a way that is consistent with the RCM projections. This approach to generating a large ensemble of projections is many orders of magnitude more computationally efficient than running multiple GCM or RCM simulations. Such a large ensemble of projections permits a description of a probability density function (PDF) of future climate states rather than a small number of individual story lines within that PDF, which may not be representative of the PDF as a whole; the EPIC method largely corrects for such potential sampling biases. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts and implications of climate change in a probabilistic way. A web-based tool, using the EPIC method to provide probabilistic projections of changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures for New Zealand, has been developed and is described in this paper.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 822
Author(s):  
Abdullah Kahraman ◽  
Deniz Ural ◽  
Barış Önol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Thermodynamic Conditions ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.

scholarly journals The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 9441-9458 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. M. Manders ◽  
E. van Meijgaard ◽  
A. C. Mues ◽  
R. Kranenburg ◽  
L. H. van Ulft ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change may have an impact on air quality (ozone, particulate matter) due to the strong dependency of air quality on meteorology. The effect is often studied using a global climate model (GCM) to produce meteorological fields that are subsequently used by chemical transport models. However, climate models themselves are subject to large uncertainties and fail to reproduce the present-day climate adequately. The present study illustrates the impact of these uncertainties on air quality. To this end, output from the SRES-A1B constraint transient runs with two GCMs, i.e. ECHAM5 and MIROC-hires, has been dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model RACMO2 and used to force a constant emission run with the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS in a one-way coupled run covering the period 1970–2060. Results from the two climate simulations have been compared with a RACMO2-LOTOS-EUROS (RLE) simulation forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1989–2009. Both RLE_ECHAM and RLE_MIROC showed considerable deviations from RLE_ERA for daily maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed. Moreover, sign and magnitude of these deviations depended on the region. The differences in average present-day concentrations between the simulations were equal to (RLE_MIROC) or even larger than (RLE_ECHAM) the differences in concentrations between present-day and future climate (2041–2060). The climate simulations agreed on a future increase in average summer ozone daily maximum concentrations of 5–10 μg m−3 in parts of Southern Europe and a smaller increase in Western and Central Europe. Annual average PM10 concentrations increased 0.5–1.0 μg m−3 in North-West Europe and the Po Valley, but these numbers are rather uncertain: overall, changes for PM10 were small, both positive and negative changes were found, and for many locations the two climate runs did not agree on the sign of the change. This illustrates that results from individual climate runs can at best indicate tendencies and should therefore be interpreted with great care.

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