Moisture Modes and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 3031-3046 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Raymond ◽  
Željka Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Mode Instability ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Entropy Transport ◽  
Moisture Mode

Abstract Moisture mode instability is thought to occur in the tropical oceanic atmosphere when precipitation is a strongly increasing function of saturation fraction (precipitable water divided by saturated precipitable water) and when convection acts to increase the saturation fraction. A highly simplified model of the interaction between convection and large-scale flows in the tropics suggests that there are two types of convectively coupled disturbances: the moisture mode instability described above and another unstable mode dependent on fluctuations in the convective inhibition. The latter is associated with rapidly moving disturbances such as the equatorially coupled Kelvin wave. A toy aquaplanet beta-plane model with realistic sea surface temperatures produces a robust Madden–Julian oscillation–like disturbance that resembles the observed phenomenon in many ways. Convection in this model exhibits a strong dependence of precipitation on saturation fraction and does indeed act to increase this parameter in situations of weak environmental ventilation of disturbances, thus satisfying the criteria for moisture mode instability. In contrast, NCEP’s closely related Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) models do not produce a realistic MJO. Investigation of moist entropy transport in NCEP’s final analysis (FNL), the data assimilation system feeding the GFS, indicates that convection tends to decrease the saturation fraction in these models, precluding moisture mode instability in most circumstances. Thus, evidence from a variety of sources suggests that the MJO is driven at least in part by moisture mode instability.

scholarly journals Kelvin/Rossby Wave Partition of Madden-Julian Oscillation Circulations

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Patrick Haertel
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Circulation System ◽  
System Of Equations ◽  
Wave Component ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Realistic View ◽  
State Of Rest

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale convective and circulation system that propagates slowly eastward over the equatorial Indian and Western Pacific Oceans. Multiple, conflicting theories describe its growth and propagation, most involving equatorial Kelvin and/or Rossby waves. This study partitions MJO circulations into Kelvin and Rossby wave components for three sets of data: (1) a modeled linear response to an MJO-like heating; (2) a composite MJO based on atmospheric sounding data; and (3) a composite MJO based on data from a Lagrangian atmospheric model. The first dataset has a simple dynamical interpretation, the second provides a realistic view of MJO circulations, and the third occurs in a laboratory supporting controlled experiments. In all three of the datasets, the propagation of Kelvin waves is similar, suggesting that the dynamics of Kelvin wave circulations in the MJO can be captured by a system of equations linearized about a basic state of rest. In contrast, the Rossby wave component of the observed MJO’s circulation differs substantially from that in our linear model, with Rossby gyres moving eastward along with the heating and migrating poleward relative to their linear counterparts. These results support the use of a system of equations linearized about a basic state of rest for the Kelvin wave component of MJO circulation, but they question its use for the Rossby wave component.

scholarly journals Response of the Superparameterized Madden–Julian Oscillation to Extreme Climate and Basic-State Variation Challenges a Moisture Mode View

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 4995-5008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Pritchard ◽  
Da Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Moisture Advection ◽  
Moisture Mode ◽  
State Variation ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
Self Aggregation

Abstract The climate sensitivity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is measured across a broad range of temperatures (1°–35°C) using a convection-permitting global climate model with homogenous sea surface temperatures. An MJO-like signal is found to be resilient in all simulations. These results are used to investigate two ideas related to the modern “moisture mode” view of MJO dynamics. The first hypothesis is that the MJO has dynamics analogous to a form of radiative convective self-aggregation in which longwave energy maintenance mechanisms shut down for SST ≪ 25°C. Inconsistent with this hypothesis, the explicitly simulated MJO survives cooling and retains leading moist static energy (MSE) budget terms associated with longwave destabilization even at SST < 10°C. Thus, if the MJO is a form of longwave-assisted self-aggregation, it is not one that is temperature critical, as is observed in some cases of radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) self-aggregation. The second hypothesis is that the MJO is propagated by horizontal advection of column MSE. Inconsistent with this view, the simulated MJO survives reversal of meridional moisture gradients in the basic state and a striking role for horizontal MSE advection in its propagation energy budget cannot be detected. Rather, its eastward motion is balanced by vertical MSE advection reminiscent of gravity or Kelvin wave dynamics. These findings could suggest a tight relation between the MJO and classic equatorial waves, which would tend to challenge moisture mode views of MJO dynamics that assume horizontal moisture advection as the MJO’s propagator. The simulation suite provides new opportunities for testing predictions from MJO theory across a broad climate regime.

scholarly journals Understanding the Processes Causing the Early Intensification of Hurricane Dorian through an Ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Andrew Hazelton ◽  
Ghassan J. Alaka ◽  
Levi Cowan ◽  
Michael Fischer ◽  
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Complex Interplay ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Model Initialization

The early stages of a tropical cyclone can be a challenge to forecast, as a storm consolidates and begins to grow based on the local and environmental conditions. A high-resolution ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is used to study the early intensification of Hurricane Dorian, a catastrophic 2019 storm in which the early period proved challenging for forecasters. There was a clear connection in the ensemble between early storm track and intensity: stronger members moved more northeast initially, although this result did not have much impact on the long-term track. The ensemble results show several key factors determining the early evolution of Dorian. Large-scale divergence northeast of the tropical cyclone (TC) appeared to favor intensification, and this structure was present at model initialization. There was also greater moisture northeast of the TC for stronger members at initialization, favoring more intensification and downshear development of the circulation as these members evolved. This study highlights the complex interplay between synoptic and storm scale processes in the development and intensification of early-stage tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 3365-3385 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Thiemig ◽  
B. Bisselink ◽  
F. Pappenberger ◽  
J. Thielen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Lipid-lowering treatment in hypercholesterolaemic patients: the CEPHEUS Pan-Asian survey

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 781-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong Euy Park ◽  
Chern-En Chiang ◽  
Muhammad Munawar ◽  
Gia Khai Pham ◽  
Apichard Sukonthasarn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Goal Attainment ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Lipid Lowering ◽  
Lipid Lowering Therapy ◽  
Lipid Lowering Drugs

Background: Treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in Asia is rarely evaluated on a large scale, and data on treatment outcome are scarce. The Pan-Asian CEPHEUS study aimed to assess low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goal attainment among patients on lipid-lowering therapy. Methods: This survey was conducted in eight Asian countries. Hypercholesterolaemic patients aged ≥18 years who had been on lipid-lowering treatment for ≥3 months (stable medication for ≥6 weeks) were recruited, and lipid concentrations were measured. Demographic and other clinically relevant information were collected, and the cardiovascular risk of each patient was determined. Definitions and criteria set by the updated 2004 National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines were applied. Results: In this survey, 501 physicians enrolled 8064 patients, of whom 7281 were included in the final analysis. The mean age was 61.0 years, 44.4% were female, and 85.1% were on statin monotherapy. LDL-C goal attainment was reported in 49.1% of patients overall, including 51.2% of primary and 48.7% of secondary prevention patients, and 36.6% of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia. The LDL-C goal was attained in 75.4% of moderate risk, 55.4% of high risk, and only 34.9% of very high-risk patients. Goal attainment was directly related to age and inversely related to cardiovascular risk and baseline LDL-C. Conclusion: A large proportion of Asian hypercholesterolaemic patients on lipid-lowering drugs are not at recommended LDL-C levels and remain at risk for cardiovascular disease. Given the proven efficacy of lipid-lowering drugs in the reduction of LDL-C, there is room for further optimization of treatments to maximize benefits and improve outcomes.

scholarly journals Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Superparameterized CAM in Response to Warmer SSTs

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
pp. 9827-9845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhou ◽  
Marat F. Khairoutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Cold Extremes

Subdaily temperature and precipitation extremes in response to warmer SSTs are investigated on a global scale using the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded in each CAM grid column to simulate convection explicitly. Two 10-yr simulations have been performed using present climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and perturbed SST climatology derived from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with the conventional CAM, SP-CAM simulates colder temperatures and more realistic intensity distribution of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. The temperature and precipitation extremes have been defined by the 99th percentile of the 3-hourly data. For temperature, the changes in the warm and cold extremes are generally consistent between CAM and SP-CAM, with larger changes in warm extremes at low latitudes and larger changes in cold extremes at mid-to-high latitudes. For precipitation, CAM predicts a uniform increase of frequency of precipitation extremes regardless of the rain rate, while SP-CAM predicts a monotonic increase of frequency with increasing rain rate and larger change of intensity for heavier precipitation. The changes in 3-hourly and daily temperature extremes are found to be similar; however, the 3-hourly precipitation extremes have a significantly larger change than daily extremes. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is found to be a relatively good predictor of zonally averaged changes in precipitation extremes over midlatitudes but not as good over the tropics and subtropics. The changes in precipitable water and large-scale vertical velocity are equally important to explain the changes in precipitation extremes.

scholarly journals A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 914
Author(s):  
Tao Chen ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
South China ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Atmospheric Parameter ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Warm Sector

In view of the limited predictability of heavy rainfall (HR) events and the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the initiation and organization of the associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a composite analysis of 58 HR events over the warm sector (i.e., far ahead of the surface cold front), referred to as WSHR events, over South China during the months of April to June 2008~2014 is performed in terms of precipitation, large-scale circulations, pre-storm environmental conditions, and MCS types. Results show that the large-scale circulations of the WSHR events can be categorized into pre-frontal, southwesterly warm and moist ascending airflow, and low-level vortex types, with higher frequency occurrences of the former two types. Their pre-storm environments are characterized by a deep moist layer with >50 mm column-integrated precipitable water, high convective available potential energy with the equivalent potential temperature of ≥340 K at 850 hPa, weak vertical wind shear below 400 hPa, and a low-level jet near 925 hPa with weak warm advection, based on atmospheric parameter composite. Three classes of the corresponding MCSs, exhibiting peak convective activity in the afternoon and the early morning hours, can be identified as linear-shaped, a leading convective line adjoined with trailing stratiform rainfall, and comma-shaped, respectively. It is found that many linear-shaped MCSs in coastal regions are triggered by local topography, enhanced by sea breezes, whereas the latter two classes of MCSs experience isentropic lifting in the southwesterly warm and moist flows. They all develop in large-scale environments with favorable quasi-geostrophic forcing, albeit weak. Conceptual models are finally developed to facilitate our understanding and prediction of the WSHR events over South China.

scholarly journals Planetary Scale Selection of the Madden–Julian Oscillation*

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 2429-2443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Li ◽  
Chunhua Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Initial Perturbation ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Scale Selection ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Nonlinear Heating ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer and a 2-level model are conducted to examine the mechanism for the planetary scale selection of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The strategy here is to examine the evolution of an initial perturbation that has a form of the equatorial Kelvin wave at zonal wavenumbers of 1 to 15. In the presence of a frictional boundary layer, the most unstable mode prefers a short wavelength under a linear heating; but with a nonlinear heating, the zonal wavenumber 1 grows fastest. This differs significantly from a model without the boundary layer, in which neither linear nor nonlinear heating leads to the long wave selection. Thus, the numerical simulations point out the crucial importance of the combined effect of the nonlinear heating and the frictional boundary layer in the MJO planetary scale selection. The cause of this scale selection under the nonlinear heating is attributed to the distinctive phase speeds between the dry Kelvin wave and the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet. The faster dry Kelvin wave triggered by a convective branch may catch up and suppress another convective branch, which travels ahead of it at the phase speed of the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet if the distance between the two neighboring convective branches is smaller than a critical distance (about 16 000 km). The interference between the dry Kelvin wave and the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet eventually dissipates and “filters out” shorter wavelength perturbations, leading to a longwave selection. The boundary layer plays an important role in destabilizing the MJO through frictional moisture convergences and in retaining the in-phase zonal wind–pressure structure.

scholarly journals Improved moist-convective rotating shallow water model and its application to instabilities of hurricane-like vortices

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
LMD
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Shallow Water ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Shallow Water Model ◽  
Atmospheric Motions ◽  
Rotating Shallow Water

We show how the two-layer moist-convective rotating shallow water model (mcRSW), which proved to be a simple and robust tool for studying effects of moist convection on large-scale atmospheric motions, can be improved by including, in addition to the water vapour, precipitable water, and the effects of vaporisation, entrainment, and precipitation. Thus improved mcRSW becomes cloud-resolving. It is applied, as an illustration, to model the development of instabilities of tropical cyclone-like vortices.

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