scholarly journals What Is the True Value of Forecasts?

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antony Millner
Keyword(s):  
User Behavior ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Psychological Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
True Value ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Normative Models

Abstract Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to be statistically sophisticated, hyperrational decision makers with perfect knowledge and understanding of forecast performance. These models provide a normative benchmark for assessing forecast value, but say nothing about the value that actual forecast users realize. Real forecast users are subject to a variety of behavioral effects and informational constraints that violate the assumptions of normative models. In this paper, one of the normative assumptions about user behavior is relaxed—users are no longer assumed to be in possession of a perfect statistical understanding of forecast performance. In the case of a cost–loss decision, it is shown that a model of users’ forecast use choices based on the psychological theory of reinforcement learning leads to a behavioral adjustment factor that lowers the relative value score that the user achieves. The dependence of this factor on the user’s decision parameters (the ratio of costs to losses) and the forecast skill is deduced. Differences between the losses predicted by the behavioral and normative models are greatest for users with intermediate cost–loss ratios, and when forecasts have intermediate skill. The relevance of the model as a tool for directing user education initiatives is briefly discussed, and a direction for future research is proposed.

scholarly journals Economic Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agriculture: Review of Ex-Ante Assessments and Recommendations for Future Research

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1269-1286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Meza ◽  
James W. Hansen ◽  
Daniel Osgood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Published Evidence ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Abstract Advanced information in the form of seasonal climate forecasts has the potential to improve farmers’ decision making, leading to increases in farm profits. Interdisciplinary initiatives seeking to understand and exploit the potential benefits of seasonal forecasts for agriculture have produced a number of quantitative ex-ante assessments of the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts. The realism, robustness, and credibility of such assessments become increasingly important as efforts shift from basic research toward applied research and implementation. This paper surveys published evidence about the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture, characterizing the agricultural systems, approaches followed, and scales of analysis. The climate forecast valuation literature has contributed insights into the influence of forecast characteristics, risk attitudes, insurance, policy, and the scale of adoption on the value of forecasts. Key innovations in the more recent literature include explicit treatment of the uncertainty of forecast value estimates, incorporation of elicited management responses into bioeconomic modeling, and treatment of environmental impacts, in addition to financial outcomes of forecast response. It is argued that the picture of the value of seasonal forecasts for agriculture is still incomplete and often biased, in part because of significant gaps in published valuation research. Key gaps include sampling of a narrow range of farming systems and locations, incorporation of an overly restricted set of potential management responses, failure to consider forecast responses that could lead to “regime shifts,” and failure to incorporate state-of-the-art developments in seasonal forecasting. This paper concludes with six recommendations to enhance the realism, robustness, and credibility of ex-ante valuation of seasonal climate forecasts.

Using corpora in depth psychology: a trigram-based analysis of a corpus of fetish fantasies

Corpora ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Depth Psychology ◽  
Constant Pressure ◽  
Psychological Theory ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Future Research ◽  
German Language ◽  
Alternative Theory ◽  
Depth Psychological ◽  
Psychological Constructs ◽  
Quantitative Linguistics

Contemporary depth psychology is under constant pressure to demonstrate and strengthen its evidence base. In this paper, I show how the analysis of large corpora can contribute to this goal of developing and testing depth-psychological theory. To provide a basis for evaluating statements about foot and shoe fetishism, I analyse the thirty-six most frequent three-word phrases (or trigrams) in a corpus of about 1.6 million words of amateur fetish stories written in the German language. Zipfian methods from quantitative linguistics are used to specify the number of phrases for analysis and I argue that these reflect the core themes of the corpus. The analysis reveals three main dimensions. First, it corroborates the observations of the early sexologists that foot and shoe fetishism is very closely intertwined with sadomasochism. Secondly, it shows that genitalia-related phrases are also common, but an examination of their contexts questions Freud's theory that fetishism results from an assumption of female castration. Thirdly, it reveals that the mouth also plays a key role; however, the frequent co-presence of genitalia references in the same texts does not seem to support straightforwardly the most common alternative theory of fetishism based on object relations. Future research could valuably extend this approach to other fetishes and, in due course, to other depth-psychological constructs.

Dissociating the Impact of Auditory Access and Language Access in Deaf Children’s Cognitive Development

2020 ◽  
pp. 98-122
Author(s):  
Matthew L. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Executive Function ◽  
Cognitive Development ◽  
Implicit Learning ◽  
Educational Practice ◽  
Verbal Working Memory ◽  
Psychological Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Language Access ◽  
The Impact

Deaf and hard of hearing (DHH) children have been claimed to lag behind their hearing peers in various domains of cognitive development, especially in implicit learning, executive function, and working memory. Two major accounts of these deficits have been proposed: one based on a lack of auditory access, and one based on a lack of language access. This chapter reviews these theories in relation to the available evidence and concludes that there is little evidence of direct effects of diminished auditory access on cognitive development that could not also be explained by diminished language access. Specifically, reports of deficits in implicit learning are not broadly replicable. Some differences in executive function do stem from deafness itself but are not necessarily deficits. Where clinically relevant deficits in executive function are observed, they are inconsistent with the predictions of accounts based on auditory access, but consistent with accounts based on language access. Deaf–hearing differences on verbal working memory tasks may indicate problems with perception and/or language, rather than with working memory. Deaf–hearing differences on nonverbal tasks are more consistent with accounts based on language access, but much more study is needed in this area. The chapter concludes by considering the implications of these findings for psychological theory and for clinical/educational practice and by identifying high-priority targets for future research.

Antecedents and Consequences of Gossip in Work Groups

2019 ◽  
pp. 416-434
Author(s):  
Bianca Beersma ◽  
Gerben A. van Kleef ◽  
Maria T. M. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Social Order ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Work Groups ◽  
Psychological Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Group Norms ◽  
Group Effectiveness ◽  
Interpersonal Aggression ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Antecedents And Consequences

This chapter provides an overview of the antecedents and consequences of gossip in work groups. First, the chapter reviews the different motives for gossip in work groups (i.e., bonding, entertainment, emotional venting, information exchange, maintenance of group norms/social order, and interpersonal aggression) and links each motive to psychological theory. Second, the chapter reviews the different types of influence that gossip can have on various indicators of group effectiveness. Reflecting on the motives underlying gossip in work groups, as well as on its outcomes, it argues that future research should start integrating the diverse insights provided by earlier research on both gossip motives and outcomes, and it provides a number of suggestions for doing so.

The Interplay of Developing Morality and Gender Attitudes

2020 ◽  
pp. 724-745
Author(s):  
Rebecca S. Bigler ◽  
Lynn S. Liben
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Theory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gender Nonconformity ◽  
Gender Attitudes ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Ethical Policy ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Gender ◽  
And Behavior

Morality and gender are intersecting realms of human thought and behavior. Reasoning and action at their intersection (e.g., views of women’s rights legislation) carry important consequences for societies, communities, and individual lives. In this chapter, the authors argue that children’s developing views of morality and gender reciprocally shape one another in important and underexplored ways. The chapter begins with a brief history of psychological theory and research at the intersection of morality and gender and suggests reasons for the historical failure to view gender attitudes through moral lenses. The authors then describe reasons for expecting morality to play an important role in shaping children’s developing gender attitudes and, reciprocally, for gender attitudes to play an important role in shaping children’s developing moral values. The authors next illustrate the importance and relevance of these ideas by discussing two topics at the center of contentious debate in the United States concerning ethical policy and practice: treatment of gender nonconformity and gender-segregated schooling. The chapter concludes with suggestions for future research.

scholarly journals The Infinity Formulation: how transdiagnostic behaviours and endeavours for behavioural change serve to maintain co-morbid mental health presentations

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Bennetts
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Behavioural Change ◽  
Psychological Theory ◽  
Primary Treatment ◽  
Future Research ◽  
List Type ◽  
Cognitive Behavioural ◽  
Co Morbidity

Abstract Treatment recommendations for mental health are often founded on diagnosis-specific models; however, there are high rates of co-morbidity of mental health presentations and growing recognition of the presence of ‘transdiagnostic processes’ (cognitive, emotional or behavioural features) seen across a range of mental health presentations. This model proposes a novel conceptualisation of how transdiagnostic behaviours may maintain co-morbid mental health presentations by acting as a trigger event for the cognitive biases specific to each presentation. Drawing on existing evidence, psychological theory and the author’s clinical experience, the model organises complex presentations in a theory-driven yet accessible manner for use in clinical practice. The model offers both theoretical and clinical implications for the treatment of mental health presentations using cognitive behavioural approaches, positing that transdiagnostic behaviours be the primary treatment target in co-morbid presentations. Key learning aims (1) To understand the strengths and limitations of existing transdiagnostic CBT formulation models. (2) To learn about a novel, transdiagnostic and behaviourally focused formulation for use in clinical practice. (3) To understand how to use the tool in clinical practice and future research.

scholarly journals Economic value of protected areas via visitor mental health

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Buckley ◽  
Paula Brough ◽  
Leah Hague ◽  
Alienor Chauvenet ◽  
Chris Fleming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Global Estimate ◽  
Conservation Policies ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Individual Scale

Abstract We evaluate methods to calculate the economic value of protected areas derived from the improved mental health of visitors. A conservative global estimate using quality-adjusted life years, a standard measure in health economics, is US$6 trillion p.a. This is an order of magnitude greater than the global value of protected area tourism, and two to three orders greater than global aggregate protected area management agency budgets. Future research should: refine this estimate using more precise methods; consider interactions between health and conservation policies and budgets at national scales; and examine links between personalities and protected area experiences at individual scale.

scholarly journals A Study of the Diverse Races of Entamoeba histolytica distinguishable from one another by the dimensions of their Cysts

Parasitology ◽  
1918 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 320-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clifford Dobell ◽  
Margaret W. Jepps
Keyword(s):  
Entamoeba Histolytica ◽  
Saline Solution ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Physiological Saline ◽  
E Coli ◽  
True Value ◽  
Apparent Loss ◽  
Physiological Saline Solution ◽  
Apparent Reduction ◽  
Pure Lines

1. Entamoeba histolytica Schaudinn (vel E. dysenteriae Councilman and Lafleur), the human dysentery amoeba, is a collective species. It comprises a number of distinct races, strains, or pure lines, distinguishable from one another by the size of the cysts which they produce.2. How many such distinct races exist is still undetermined; but we have demonstrated the existence of at least five.3. There is no evidence that the different races differ in their geographical distribution, or in any character save size.4. These races remain constant in character within a given host; and the dimensions of the cysts are not determined by the action of the host upon the parasite, since two different races may coexist side by side in the same host.5. Different values for the dimensions of the cysts are obtained when these are measured in different media. Taking the measurements of living cysts suspended in physiological saline solution as representing the true value, we find that the dimensions of cysts in iodine solution are approximately the same; but that cysts which have been suitably fixed, stained, and mounted in balsam, have undergone an apparent reduction of approximately 10% from the true diameter.6. The most suitable fixative for E. histolytica cysts we have found to be a modification of Schaudinn's fluid. (Saturated aqueous solution of corrosive sublimate, two parts; absolute alcohol, one part; glacial acetic acid, 4–5%.) Cysts fixed in this fluid undergo no measurable shrinkage or swelling in the process.7. The apparent loss of size observed in cysts which have been fixed, stained, and mounted in balsam, is due chiefly to the invisibility of the cyst wall in the mounting medium.8. It follows from what has been said above (5 and 6) that to obtain an approximately true value for the dimensions of the living cysts from measurements made upon those suitably fixed, stained, and mounted in balsam, these measurements should be multiplied by the factor 9. We find no evidence of the existence of a sexual dimorphism in the cysts belonging to a single race, such as has been described by Mathis and Mercier.10. Since cysts of E. histolytica may be found with all diameters from about 5μ. to about 20μ—a range overlapping or covering the dimensions of the cysts of the two common harmless intestinal amoebae of man (E. coli and E. nana) and of other cysts and cyst-like bodies occurring in human faeces—it is of considerable practical importance to recognize and distinguish the diverse races of E. histolytica which differ from one another in the dimensions of the cysts which they produce.

scholarly journals Towards an integrated network of coral immune mechanisms

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1745) ◽  
pp. 4106-4114 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. V. Palmer ◽  
N. Traylor-Knowles
Keyword(s):  
Coral Disease ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Mechanistic Explanation ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Integrated Network ◽  
Immune Mechanisms ◽  
Invertebrate Immunology ◽  
Ecological Scale ◽  
Stress Susceptibility

Reef-building corals form bio-diverse marine ecosystems of high societal and economic value, but are in significant decline globally due, in part, to rapid climatic changes. As immunity is a predictor of coral disease and thermal stress susceptibility, a comprehensive understanding of this new field will likely provide a mechanistic explanation for ecological-scale trends in reef declines. Recently, several strides within coral immunology document defence mechanisms that are consistent with those of both invertebrates and vertebrates, and which span the recognition, signalling and effector response phases of innate immunity. However, many of these studies remain discrete and unincorporated into the wider fields of invertebrate immunology or coral biology. To encourage the rapid development of coral immunology, we comprehensively synthesize the current understanding of the field in the context of general invertebrate immunology, and highlight fundamental gaps in our knowledge. We propose a framework for future research that we hope will stimulate directional studies in this emerging field and lead to the elucidation of an integrated network of coral immune mechanisms. Once established, we are optimistic that coral immunology can be effectively applied to pertinent ecological questions, improve current prediction tools and aid conservation efforts.

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