Quantifying the Sensitivity of Precipitation to the Long-Term Warming Trend and Interannual–Decadal Variation of Surface Air Temperature over China

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 3687-3703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlüe Zhou ◽  
Kaicun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Variation ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Light Precipitation

Abstract Precipitation is expected to increase under global warming. However, large discrepancies in precipitation sensitivities to global warming among observations and models have been reported, partly owing to the large natural variability of precipitation, which accounts for over 90% of its total variance in China. Here, the authors first elucidated precipitation sensitivities to the long-term warming trend and interannual–decadal variations of surface air temperature Ta over China based on daily data from approximately 2000 stations from 1961 to 2014. The results show that the number of dry, trace, and light precipitation days has stronger sensitivities to the warming trend than to the Ta interannual–decadal variation, with 14.1%, −35.7%, and −14.6% K−1 versus 2.7%, −7.9%, and −3.1% K−1, respectively. Total precipitation frequency has significant sensitivities to the warming trend (−18.5% K−1) and the Ta interannual–decadal variation (−3.6% K−1) over China. However, very heavy precipitation frequencies exhibit larger sensitivities to the Ta interannual–decadal variation than to the long-term trend over Northwest and Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau. A warming trend boosts precipitation intensity, especially for light precipitation (9.8% K−1). Total precipitation intensity increases significantly by 13.1% K−1 in response to the warming trend and by 3.3% K−1 in response to the Ta interannual–decadal variation. Very heavy precipitation intensity also shows significant sensitivity to the interannual–decadal variation of Ta (3.7% K−1), particularly in the cold season (8.0% K−1). Combining precipitation frequency and intensity, total precipitation amount has a negligible sensitivity to the warming trend, and the consequent trend in China is limited. Moderate and heavy precipitation amounts are dominated by their frequencies.

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1382-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
E. S. Takle ◽  
K. A. Kozak ◽  
J. C. Patton ◽  
R. W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Frequency

Abstract Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively simple pattern for nearly all regions and seasons examined whereby nearly all high-intensity daily precipitation contributes a larger fraction of the total precipitation, and nearly all low-intensity precipitation contributes a reduced fraction. The percentile separating relative decrease from relative increase occurs around the 70th percentile of cumulative precipitation, irrespective of the governing precipitation processes or which model produced the simulation. Changes in normalized distributions display these features much more consistently than distribution changes without normalization. Further analysis suggests that this consistent response in precipitation intensity may be a consequence of the intensity spectrum’s adherence to a gamma distribution. Under the gamma distribution, when the total precipitation or number of precipitation days changes, there is a single transition between precipitation rates that contribute relatively more to the total and rates that contribute relatively less. The behavior is roughly the same as the results of the numerical models and is insensitive to characteristics of the baseline climate, such as average precipitation, frequency of rain days, and the shape parameter of the precipitation’s gamma distribution. Changes in the normalized precipitation distribution give a more consistent constraint on how precipitation intensity may change when climate changes than do changes in the nonnormalized distribution. The analysis does not apply to extreme precipitation for which the theory of statistical extremes more likely provides the appropriate description.

scholarly journals Contrasting Daytime and Nighttime Precipitation Variability between Observations and Eight Reanalysis Products from 1979 to 2014 in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6443-6464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlüe Zhou ◽  
Kaicun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis ◽  
Negative Center ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Light Precipitation ◽  
Positive Center

Daytime (0800–2000 Beijing time) and nighttime (2000–0800 Beijing time) precipitation at approximately 2100 stations in China from 1979 to 2014 was used to evaluate eight current reanalyses. Daytime, nighttime, and nighttime–daytime contrast of precipitation were examined in aspects of climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and trends. The results show that the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), ERA-Interim/Land, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) can reproduce the observed spatial pattern of nighttime–daytime contrast in precipitation amount, exhibiting a positive center over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and a negative center over southeastern China. All of the reanalyses roughly reproduce seasonal variations of nighttime and daytime precipitation, but not always nighttime–daytime contrast. The reanalyses overestimate drizzle and light precipitation frequencies by greater than 31.5% and underestimate heavy precipitation frequencies by less than −30.8%. The reanalyses successfully reproduce interannual synchronizations of daytime and nighttime precipitation frequencies and amounts with an averaged correlation coefficient r of 0.66 against the observed data but overestimate their year-to-year amplitudes by approximately 64%. The trends in nighttime, daytime, and nighttime–daytime contrast of the observed precipitation amounts are mainly dominated by their frequencies ( r = 0.85). Less than moderate precipitation frequency has exhibited a significant downward trend (−2.5% decade−1 during nighttime and −1.7% decade−1 during daytime) since 1979, which is roughly captured by the reanalyses. However, only JRA-55 captures the observed trend of nighttime precipitation intensity (2.4% decade−1), while the remaining reanalyses show negative trends. Overall, JRA-55 and CFSR provide the best reproductions of the observed nighttime–daytime contrast in precipitation intensity, although they have considerable room for improvement.

How Often Will It Rain?

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 4801-4818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Sun ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Robert W. Portmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (a low projection), A1B (a medium projection), and A2 (a high projection) during the twenty-first century, all the models consistently show a shift toward more intense and extreme precipitation for the globe as a whole and over various regions. For both SRES B1 and A2, most models show decreased daily precipitation frequency and all the models show increased daily precipitation intensity. The multimodel averaged percentage increase in the precipitation intensity (2.0% K−1) is larger than the magnitude of the precipitation frequency decrease (−0.7% K−1). However, the shift in precipitation frequency distribution toward extremes results in large increases in very heavy precipitation events (>50 mm day−1), so that for very heavy precipitation, the percentage increase in frequency is much larger than the increase in intensity (31.2% versus 2.4%). The climate model projected increases in daily precipitation intensity are, however, smaller than that based on simple thermodynamics (∼7% K−1). Multimodel ensemble means show that precipitation amount increases during the twenty-first century over high latitudes, as well as over currently wet regions in low- and midlatitudes more than other regions. This increase mostly results from a combination of increased frequency and intensity. Over the dry regions in the subtropics, the precipitation amount generally declines because of decreases in both frequency and intensity. This indicates that wet regions may get wetter and dry regions may become drier mostly because of a simultaneous increase (decrease) of precipitation frequency and intensity.

scholarly journals Rapid carbon injection and transient global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

2008 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stuijs ◽  
H. Brinkhuis
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Biotic Response ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Carbon Injection

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), ~55.5 Myr ago, was a geologically brief (~170 kyr) episode of globally elevated temperatures, which occurred superimposed on the long-term late Paleocene and early Eocene warming trend (Fig. 1). It was marked by a 5 – 8° C warming in both low and high-latitude regions, a perturbation of the hydrological cycle and major biotic response on land and in the oceans, including radiations, extinctions and migrations (see overviews in Bowen et al., 2006; Sluijs et al., 2007a).

Long-term variability of Atlantic water temperature in the Svalbard fjords in conditions of past and recent global warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniil I. Tislenko ◽  
Boris V. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
The West ◽  
West Spitsbergen

Within last decades, the climate of our planet has underwent remarkable changes. The most notable are those called "Arctic amplification." is the changes comprise a decrease in the area of ​​multi-years ice in 2007 and 2012 in polar regions of the Northern hemisphere, accompanied by the temperature rise of intermediate Atlantic waters, increasing surface temperature. In this paper, an analysis of long-term variability of temperature transformed Atlantic waters (TAW) in the fjords of the West-Spitsbergen island (Isfjorden, Grnfjorden, Hornsund and Kongsfjorden) in the first period (1920–1940) and modern (1990–2009) warming in the Arctic is reported. It is shown that the instrumental observation data corresponds to the periods of rise in temperature in the layer of the TAW and surface air temperature (SAT) for the area of ​​the Svalbard.

Using a long-term climate simulation to address future changes in Western Europe precipitation regimes due to global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro M. Sousa ◽  
Alexandre M. Ramos ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Christoph C. Raible ◽  
Martina Messmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

<p>Moisture transport and Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) over the Northeastern Atlantic are a very relevant process for the inter-annual variability of precipitation over Western Europe. Based on a long-term transient simulation (850-2100CE) from the CESM model, we have showed that moisture transport towards Western Europe (using the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport, IVT) has been increasing significantly since pre-industrial period, in a clear association with the global warming trend. Both current and projected changes (using RCP 8.5) significantly exceed the range given by inter-annual to inter-decadal internal/external variability observed during the last millennium.</p><p>We have checked the emergence of the temperature, IVT and precipitation signals in Iberia and the UK, showing that while the first two have now clearly emerged from the pre-warming state, precipitation series are still slightly below that threshold. Nevertheless, projections clearly show an increase in rainfall at higher latitudes (i in phase with a warmer and moister atmosphere); and a decrease at lower latitudes decoupled from the overall increase in moisture availability. Additionally we have explored the role played by large-scale circulation and atmospheric dynamics for these contrasting projections. Overall, results show that a poleward migration of moisture corridors and ARs explain a significant fraction of these projected trends. Based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relation we have separated the thermodynamical from dynamical changes. We also show how that a significant increase in subtropical anticyclonic activity over Iberia is responsible for: i) dynamical circulation changes; ii) a shortening of the wet season; iii) to less efficient precipitation regimes in the region. These results highlight the urge to adapt to a drying trend in Mediterranean-type climates, as a consequence of Global Warming.</p><p> </p><p>The financial support for this work was possible through the following FCT project: HOLMODRIVE - North Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Lateglacial to the Present [PTDC/CTA-GEO/29029/2017]</p>

scholarly journals Regional Perspective on Mechanisms for Tropical Precipitation Frequency and Intensity under Global Warming

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (24) ◽  
pp. 8487-8501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-An Chen ◽  
Chia Chou ◽  
Cheng-Ta Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Main Process ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Horizontal Advection

Abstract From a global point of view, a shift toward more intense precipitation is often found in observations and global warming simulations. However, similar to changes in mean precipitation, these changes associated with precipitation characters, such as intensity and frequency, should vary with space. Based on the classification of the subregions for the tropics in Chou et al., changes in precipitation frequency and intensity and their association with changes in mean precipitation are analyzed on a regional basis in 10 coupled global climate models. Furthermore, mechanisms for these changes are also examined, via the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. In general, the increase (decrease) of mean precipitation is mainly attributed to increases (decreases) in the frequency and intensity of almost all strengths of precipitation: that is, light to heavy precipitation. The thermodynamic contribution, which is associated with increased water vapor, is positive to both precipitation frequency and intensity, particularly for precipitation extremes, and varies little with space. On the other hand, the dynamic contribution, which is related to changes in the tropical circulation, is the main process for inducing the spatial variation of changes in precipitation frequency and intensity. Among mechanisms that induce the dynamic contribution, the rich-get-richer mechanism (the dynamic part), ocean feedback, and warm horizontal advection increase precipitation frequency and intensity, while the upped-ante mechanism, the deepening of convection, longwave radiation cooling, and cold horizontal advection tend to reduce precipitation frequency and intensity.

scholarly journals Long term changes of the sub-daily precipitation extremes in Hungary

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Lakatos ◽  
Olivér Szentes
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Digital Database ◽  
Precipitation Changes

<p>The warming climate evokes increasing frequency of extreme precipitation in some region. Analysis of long-term measurements could support the better understanding of the processes that cause extreme precipitation events.</p><p>Automatic stations replaced the ombrometer in many places in Hungary, particularly from the late 1990s. The change of the measurement practice do not allow simply merging the data recorded form the registering paper in the past and the recent 10 minutes measurements.   The most intense 5, 10, 20, 30, 60, 180 min sub-totals per rainfall events were recorded from the ombrometer registering paper before atomization, typically until 1993. By contrast, the 10 min precipitation sum from the AWSs are stored in the meteorological database of the Hungarian Meteorological Service from automatization. In order to join together the older and the AWS measurements it was necessary to develop a method to make this possible. Therefore we downscaled the 10 min data in time. The sampling of the AWSs is one minute, although the 1-minute data are available only for some stations in the digital database.  We applied a linear regression model to downscale the 10-miniute data for 1 min. After this, we can derive the most intense sub-totals per events from the AWS data as if they have been measured with the ombrometers.</p><p>Thereby a set of sub-daily precipitation indices defined in the INTENSE project (https://research.ncl.ac.uk/intense/aboutintense/ can be computed for longer data series. Some of the indices specified in INTENSE project describes the maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of heavy precipitation, frequency of rainfall above specific thresholds and some of them is related to diurnal cycle. A few of these indices are analysed for long data series to detect the sub-daily precipitation changes in Hungary.</p>

Stable Isotope Evidence for Recent Global Warming Hiatus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Wang ◽  
Zhongfang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Stable Isotopic ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Isotope Evidence ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Open Question ◽  
New Evidence

<p>Global mean surface air temperature (SAT) has remained relative stagnant since the late 1990s, a phenomenon known as global warming hiatus. Despite widespread concern and discussion, there is still an open question about whether this hiatus exists, partly due to the biases in observations. The stable isotopic composition of precipitation in mid- and high-latitude continents closely tracks change of the air temperature, providing an alternative to evaluate global warming hiatus. Here we use the long-term precipitation δ<sup>18</sup>O records available to investigate changes in SAT over the period 1970–2016. The results reveal slight decline in δ<sup>18</sup>O anomaly from 1998 to 2012, with a slope of -0.0004‰ decade<sup>-1 </sup>which is significantly different from that of pre-1998 interval. This downward δ<sup>18</sup>O anomaly trend suggests a slight cooling for about -0.001°C decade<sup>-1</sup>, corroborating the recent hiatus in global warming. Our work provides new evidence for recent global warming hiatus and highlights the potential of utilizing precipitation isotope for tracking climate changes.</p>

scholarly journals Mechanisms for Global Warming Impacts on Precipitation Frequency and Intensity

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3291-3306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia Chou ◽  
Chao-An Chen ◽  
Pei-Hua Tan ◽  
Kuan Ting Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Dynamic Components

Global warming mechanisms that cause changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation in the tropics are examined in climate model simulations. Under global warming, tropical precipitation tends to be more frequent and intense for heavy precipitation but becomes less frequent and weaker for light precipitation. Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity are both controlled by thermodynamic and dynamic components. The thermodynamic component is induced by changes in atmospheric water vapor, while the dynamic component is associated with changes in vertical motion. A set of equations is derived to estimate both thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. In the thermodynamic contribution, increased water vapor reduces the magnitude of the required vertical motion to generate the same strength of precipitation, so precipitation frequency increases. Increased water vapor also intensifies precipitation due to the enhancement of water vapor availability in the atmosphere. In the dynamic contribution, the more stable atmosphere tends to reduce the frequency and intensity of precipitation, except for the heaviest precipitation. The dynamic component strengthens the heaviest precipitation in most climate model simulations, possibly due to a positive convective feedback.

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