scholarly journals Diagnosis of Decadal Predictability of Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in the GFDL CM2.1 Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6309-6328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Liwei Jia
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The average predictability time (APT) method is used to identify the most predictable components of decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the Southern Ocean (SO) in a 4000-yr unforced control run of the GFDL CM2.1 model. The most predictable component shows significant predictive skill for periods as long as 20 years. The physical pattern of this variability has a uniform sign of SST anomalies over the SO, with maximum values over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen–Weddell Seas. Spectral analysis of the associated APT time series shows a broad peak on time scales of 70–120 years. This most predictable pattern is closely related to the mature phase of a mode of internal variability in the SO that is associated with fluctuations of deep ocean convection. The second most predictable component of SO SST is characterized by a dipole structure, with SST anomalies of one sign over the Weddell Sea and SST anomalies of the opposite sign over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas. This component has significant predictive skill for periods as long as 6 years. This dipole mode is associated with a transition between phases of the dominant pattern of SO internal variability. The long time scales associated with variations in SO deep convection provide the source of the predictive skill of SO SST on decadal scales. These analyses suggest that if the SO deep convection in a numerical forecast model could be adequately initialized, the future evolution of SO SST and its associated climate impacts are potentially predictable.

scholarly journals Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4034-4060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Elsa Mohino ◽  
Carlos R. Mechoso ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Michela Biasutti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
West African ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

On the Stochastic Forcing of Modes of Interannual Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 3074-3083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Aiken ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract A simple linearized transport model of anomalous Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) is studied to determine whether it can sustain anomalies of realistic amplitudes under a physically based stochastic forcing. As noted in previous studies, eigenmodes of this system with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 share key propagation characteristics with the SST anomalies associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). The system is solved on a grid that follows the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and is forced by a stochastic heat flux. The forcing is white in space and time and represents the advection of the mean SST gradient by high-frequency variations in the cross-ACC velocity, due to mesoscale eddy variability. The magnitude of the stochastic forcing is determined from a global eddy-permitting ocean model. Anomalous ocean surface velocity variability (8 cm s−1) coupled to a mean cross-ACC SST gradient of 0.8°C (°latitude)−1 sustains anomalous interannual SST variability at low wavenumbers and amplitudes of the order of 1°C, consistent with those associated with the ACW. In the long-term mean, variance is broadly spread among low wavenumbers, in contrast to the dominance of one or two zonal wavenumbers in the ACW observations. It is found, however, that the model produces single dominant wavenumbers over individual periods of decades, suggesting that the apparent unimodal nature of the ACW may be an artifact of the short observational record used to infer it. Alternatively, it is shown that a nonisotropic forcing may also result in a stronger preference for particular zonal wavenumbers. It is shown that if the atmosphere at mid to high southern latitudes has an equivalent barotropic response to heating, then the resulting sea level pressure anomalies reproduce the phase relationship of the observed ACW. These results are consistent with the notion that a simple stochastically forced advection of SST anomalies can explain SST variability associated with the ACW to leading order.

Temporal and Spatial SST (Sea Surface Temperature) Distribution and its Impact on Chlorophyll - A Concentration in Southern Ocean during 2002-2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 675-677 ◽  
pp. 1197-1200
Author(s):  
Chen Zeng ◽  
Hui Ping Xu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Ross Sea ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prydz Bay ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has great impact on algae growth in ocean. And the variation of SST closely relate with global climate. As 1/5 of the greatest ocean, southern ocean SST temporal and spatial distribution needs wide attention. We uses MODIS SST inversed algorithm to find its regulation in this decade (October 2002 to March 2012, October to December and January to March a year). Significant annual cycles appears that SST rises from October and falls in February, while area >70° has peak in January. SST decreases with latitude ascending from spatial distribution. Through in high latitude, Ross Sea, Prydz Bay and Weddell Sea enjoy quite high temperature comparing to its adjacent area in same period. Almost whole blooms occur in these three seas in December, January and February, among which Prydz Bay has the highest suitable SST with 0.3-1.7°C, Amundsen Sea has the second with-0.2-0.3°C, Ross Sea has the lowest with-0.9- -0.8°C. Amundsen Sea owns the vigorous bloom and the narrowest suitable temperature period.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature off Java and Sumatra in a Global GCM*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2451-2465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Du ◽  
Tangdong Qu ◽  
Gary Meyers
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Mixed Layer ◽  
Horizontal Advection ◽  
Cold Anomaly ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Using results from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), this study assesses the mixed layer heat budget to identify the mechanisms that control the interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST) off Java and Sumatra. The analysis indicates that during the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years, cold SST anomalies are phase locked with the season cycle. They may exceed −3°C near the coast of Sumatra and extend as far westward as 80°E along the equator. The depth of the thermocline has a prominent influence on the generation and maintenance of SST anomalies. In the normal years, cooling by upwelling–entrainment is largely counterbalanced by warming due to horizontal advection. In the cooling episode of IOD events, coastal upwelling–entrainment is enhanced, and as a result of mixed layer shoaling, the barrier layer no longer exists, so that the effect of upwelling–entrainment can easily reach the surface mixed layer. Horizontal advection spreads the cold anomaly to the interior tropical Indian Ocean. Near the coast of Java, the northern branch of an anomalous anticyclonic circulation spreads the cold anomaly to the west near the equator. Both the anomalous advection and the enhanced, wind-driven upwelling generate the cold SST anomaly of the positive IOD. At the end of the cooling episode, the enhanced surface thermal forcing overbalances the cooling effect by upwelling/entrainment, and leads to a warming in SST off Java and Sumatra.

Oligocene sea-surface temperature gradients in the Southern Ocean related to Tasmanian Gateway widening: New TEX86 paleothermometry, dinoflagellate cyst data and climate model comparisons

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frida Hoem ◽  
Suning Hou ◽  
Matthew Huber ◽  
Francesca Sangiorgi ◽  
Henk Brinkhuis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dinoflagellate Cyst ◽  
Frontal Systems ◽  
Dsdp Site

<p>The opening of the Tasmanian Gateway during the Eocene and further deepening in the Oligocene is hypothesized to have reorganized ocean currents, preconditioning the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to evolve into place. However, fundamental questions still remain on the past Southern Ocean structure. We here present reconstructions of latitudinal temperature gradients and the position of ocean frontal systems in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean during the Oligocene. We generated new sea surface temperature (SST) and dinoflagellate cyst data from the West Tasman margin, ODP Site 1168. We compare these with other records around the Tasmanian Gateway, and with climate model simulations to analyze the paleoceanographic evolution during the Oligocene. The novel organic biomarker TEX<sub>86</sub>- SSTs from ODP Site 1168, range between 19.6 – 27.9°C (± 5.2°C, using the linear calibration by Kim et al., 2010), supported by temperate and open ocean dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. The data compilation, including existing TEX<sub>86</sub>-based SSTs from ODP Site 1172 in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, DSDP Site 274 offshore Cape Adare, DSDP Site 269 and IODP Site U1356 offshore the Wilkes Land Margin and terrestrial temperature proxy records from the Cape Roberts Project (CRP) on the Ross Sea continental shelf, show synchronous variability in temperature evolution between Antarctic and Australian sectors of the Southern Ocean. The SST gradients are around 10°C latitudinally across the Tasmanian Gateway throughout the early Oligocene, and increasing in the Late Oligocene. This increase can be explained by polar amplification/cooling, tectonic drift, strengthening of atmospheric currents and ocean currents. We suggest that the progressive cooling of Antarctica and the absence of mid-latitude cooling strengthened the westerly winds, which in turn could drive an intensification of the ACC and strengthening of Southern Ocean frontal systems.</p>

scholarly journals Rediscovery of the Yellow-bellied Sea Snake, Hydrophis platurus (Linnaeus, 1766) in Máncora, northern Perú

Check List ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1563
Author(s):  
Javier Quiñones ◽  
Karla García Burneo ◽  
Claudio Barragan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Snake ◽  
Warm Event ◽  
New Information ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Northern Peru ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Made In

The presence of the Yellow-bellied Sea Snake (Hydrophis platurus) in the Southeast Pacific is rarely reported, with only one confirmed observation from northern Perú made in the early 1950s. We present new information based on a live-stranded specimen recently found in Peruvian waters, having washed ashore at Máncora (04.1255° S, 81.0958° W) in northern Perú on 12 July 2012. This stranding was associated with a Modoki El Niño warm event, since positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies up to 2.5°C were registered at this time.

Recent intensified influence of the winter North Pacific sea surface temperature on the withdrawal date of Meiyu

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-53
Author(s):  
Hua Li ◽  
Shengping He ◽  
Ke Fan ◽  
Yong Liu ◽  
Xing Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe Meiyu withdrawal date (MWD) is a crucial indicator of flood/drought conditions over East Asia. It is characterized by a strong interannual variability, but its underlying mechanism remains unknown. We investigated the possible effects of the winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean on the MWD on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Both our observations and model results suggest that the winter SST anomalies associated with the MWD are mainly contributed by a combination of the first two leading modes of the winter SST in the North Pacific, which have a horseshoe shape (the NPSST). The statistical results indicate that the intimate linkage between the NPSST and the MWD has intensified since the early 1990s. During the time period 1990–2016, the NPSST-related SST anomalies persisted from winter to the following seasons and affected the SST over the tropical Pacific in July. Subsequently, the SST anomalies throughout the North Pacific strengthened the southward migration of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and the southward and westward replacement of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), leading to an increase in Meiyu rainfall from July 1 to 20. More convincingly, the anomalous EAJS and WPSH induced by the SST anomalies can be reproduced well by numerical simulations. By contrast, the influence of the NPSST on the EASJ and WPSH were not clear between 1961 and 1985. This study further illustrates that the enhanced interannual variability of the NPSST may be attributed to the more persistent SST anomalies during the time period 1990–2016.

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