scholarly journals Mechanisms for an Amplified Precipitation Seasonal Cycle in the U.S. West Coast under Global Warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (15) ◽  
pp. 4681-4698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Dong ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Jian Lu ◽  
Fengfei Song
Keyword(s):  
West Coast ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Thermal Contrast ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The mean precipitation along the U.S. West Coast exhibits a pronounced seasonality change under warming. Here we explore the characteristics of the seasonality change and investigate the underlying mechanisms, with a focus on quantifying the roles of moisture (thermodynamic) versus circulation (dynamic). The multimodel simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show a simple “wet-get-wetter” response over Washington and Oregon but a sharpened seasonal cycle marked by a stronger and narrower wet season over California. Moisture budget analysis shows that changes in both regions are predominantly caused by changes in the mean moisture convergence. The thermodynamic effect due to the mass convergence of increased moisture dominates the wet-get-wetter response over Washington and Oregon. In contrast, mean zonal moisture advection due to seasonally dependent changes in land–sea moisture contrast originating from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation dominates the sharpened wet season over California. More specifically, the stronger climatological land–sea thermal contrast in winter with warmer ocean than land results in more moisture increase over ocean than land under warming and hence wet advection to California. However, in fall and spring, the future change of land–sea thermal contrast with larger warming over land than ocean induces an opposite moisture gradient and hence dry advection to California. These results have important implications for projecting changes in the hydrological cycle of the U.S. West Coast.

scholarly journals Validation of SCIAMACHY HDO/H<sub>2</sub>O measurements using the TCCON and NDACC-MUSICA networks

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1799-1818 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Scheepmaker ◽  
C. Frankenberg ◽  
N. M. Deutscher ◽  
M. Schneider ◽  
S. Barthlott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Measurements of the atmospheric HDO/H2O ratio help us to better understand the hydrological cycle and improve models to correctly simulate tropospheric humidity and therefore climate change. We present an updated version of the column-averaged HDO/H2O ratio data set from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY). The data set is extended with 2 additional years, now covering 2003–2007, and is validated against co-located ground-based total column δD measurements from Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS) of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, produced within the framework of the MUSICA project). Even though the time overlap among the available data is not yet ideal, we determined a mean negative bias in SCIAMACHY δD of −35 ± 30‰ compared to TCCON and −69 ± 15‰ compared to MUSICA (the uncertainty indicating the station-to-station standard deviation). The bias shows a latitudinal dependency, being largest (∼ −60 to −80‰) at the highest latitudes and smallest (∼ −20 to −30‰) at the lowest latitudes. We have tested the impact of an offset correction to the SCIAMACHY HDO and H2O columns. This correction leads to a humidity- and latitude-dependent shift in δD and an improvement of the bias by 27‰, although it does not lead to an improved correlation with the FTS measurements nor to a strong reduction of the latitudinal dependency of the bias. The correction might be an improvement for dry, high-altitude areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau and the Andes region. For these areas, however, validation is currently impossible due to a lack of ground stations. The mean standard deviation of single-sounding SCIAMACHY–FTS differences is ∼ 115‰, which is reduced by a factor ∼ 2 when we consider monthly means. When we relax the strict matching of individual measurements and focus on the mean seasonalities using all available FTS data, we find that the correlation coefficients between SCIAMACHY and the FTS networks improve from 0.2 to 0.7–0.8. Certain ground stations show a clear asymmetry in δD during the transition from the dry to the wet season and back, which is also detected by SCIAMACHY. This asymmetry points to a transition in the source region temperature or location of the water vapour and shows the added information that HDO/H2O measurements provide when used in combination with variations in humidity.

scholarly journals The Hadley and Walker Circulation Changes in Global Warming Conditions Described by Idealized Atmospheric Simulations

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 3993-4013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Gastineau ◽  
Laurent Li ◽  
Hervé Le Treut
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Atmospheric Simulations

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) changes constitute a major indicator and driver of climate changes induced by greenhouse gas increases. The objective of the present study is to investigate the role played by the detailed structure of the SST change on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the distribution of precipitation. For that purpose, simulations from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4) are used where the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is doubled. The response of IPSL-CM4 is characterized by the same robust mechanisms affecting the other coupled models in global warming simulations, that is, an increase of the hydrological cycle accompanied by a global weakening of the large-scale circulation. First, purely atmospheric simulations are performed to mimic the results of the coupled model. Then, specific simulations are set up to further study the underlying atmospheric mechanisms. These simulations use different prescribed SST anomalies, which correspond to a linear decomposition of the IPSL-CM4 SST changes in global, longitudinal, and latitudinal components. The simulation using a globally uniform increase of the SST is able to reproduce the modifications in the intensity of the hydrological cycle or in the mean upward mass flux, which also characterize the double CO2 simulation with the coupled model. But it is necessary (and largely sufficient) to also take into account the zonal-mean meridional structure of the SST changes to represent correctly the changes in the Hadley circulation strength or the zonal-mean precipitation changes simulated by the coupled model, even if these meridional changes by themselves do not change the mean thermodynamical state of the tropical atmosphere. The longitudinal SST anomalies of IPSL-CM4 also have an impact on the precipitation and large-scale tropical circulation and tend to introduce different changes over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The longitudinal SST changes are demonstrated to have a smaller but opposite effect from that of the meridional anomalies on the Hadley cell circulations. Results indicate that the uncertainties in the simulated meridional patterns of the SST warming may have major consequences on the assessment of the changes of the Hadley circulation and zonal-mean precipitation in future climate projections.

scholarly journals Investigating Future Changes in Southern China Precipitation Characteristics Based on Dynamically Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Lung Liu ◽  
Chi-yung Tam ◽  
Hang Wai Tong ◽  
Kevin Cheung ◽  
Zhongfeng Xu
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Budget Analysis

Abstract The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) has been used to dynamically downscale outputs from four different general circulation models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the horizontal resolution of 25 km × 25km, in order to study 2050-to-2099 changes in the Southern China hydrological cycle according to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, relative to the period of 1979 to 2003. The mean summertime precipitation is projected to increase by 0.5 – 1.5 mm/day over coastal Southern China, and with significantly enhanced interannual variability. In boreal spring, similar increase in both the seasonal mean and its year-to-year variation north of 25°N is also found. A novel moisture budget analysis shows that changes in mean background humidity (anomalous wind convergence) dominates the increase in the interannual precipitation variability in spring (summer). Extreme daily precipitation (based on the 95 th percentile) is projected to become more intense, roughly following the Clausius–Clapeyron relation for the aforementioned seasons. On the other hand, autumn mean rainfall rate will be reduced over a broad area in Southern China (although this might be subjected to models’ ability in capturing tropical cyclone activities). The annual number of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) is found to increase by about 3 to 5 days over locations south of 32°N. Analyses of GCM raw outputs indicate that strengthened northerlies over coastal East Asia , which is likely associated with the so-called tropical expansion, are responsible for the drier autumn.

scholarly journals Changes in the Climatology, Structure, and Seasonality of Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 Climate Simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 2131-2141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Warner ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This paper describes changes in the climatology, structure, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the U.S. West Coast by examining the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in atmospheric river (AR) frequency and seasonality between historical (1970–99) and future (2070–99) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the U.S. West Coast. Changes in the 99th percentile of precipitation are only significant over the southern portion of the coast. In contrast, using the number of future days exceeding the historical 99th percentile IVT threshold produces statistically significant increases in the frequency of extreme IVT events for all winter months. The peak in future AR days appears to occur approximately one month earlier. The 10-model mean historical and end-of-century composites of extreme IVT days reflect canonical AR conditions, with a plume of high IVT extending from the coast to the southwest. The similar structure and evolution associated with ARs in the historical and future periods suggest little change in large-scale structure of such events during the upcoming century. Increases in extreme IVT intensity are primarily associated with integrated water vapor increases accompanying a warming climate. Along the southern portion of the U.S. West Coast there is less model agreement regarding the structure and intensity of ARs than along the northern portions of the coast.

scholarly journals Validation of SCIAMACHY HDO/H<sub>2</sub>O measurements using the TCCON and NDACC-MUSICA networks

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 11799-11851 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Scheepmaker ◽  
C. Frankenberg ◽  
N. M. Deutscher ◽  
M. Schneider ◽  
S. Barthlott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Measurements of the atmospheric HDO/H2O ratio help us to better understand the hydrological cycle and improve models to correctly simulate tropospheric humidity and therefore climate change. We present an updated version of the column-averaged HDO/H2O ratio dataset from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY). The dataset is extended with two additional years, now covering 2003–2007, and is validated against co-located ground-based total column δD measurements from Fourier-Transform Spectrometers (FTS) of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, produced within the framework of the MUSICA project). Even though the time overlap between the available data is not yet ideal, we determined a mean negative bias in SCIAMACHY δD of −35±30‰ compared to TCCON and −69±15‰ compared to MUSICA (the uncertainty indicating the station-to-station standard deviation). The bias shows a latitudinal dependency, being largest (∼ −60 to −80‰) at the highest latitudes and smallest (∼ −20 to −30‰) at the lowest latitudes. We have tested the impact of an offset correction to the SCIAMACHY HDO and H2O columns. This correction leads to a humidity and latitude dependent shift in δD and an improvement of the bias by 27‰, although it does not lead to an improved correlation with the FTS measurements nor to a strong reduction of the latitudinal dependency of the bias. The correction might be an improvement for dry, high-altitude areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau and the Andes region. For these areas, however, validation is currently impossible due to a lack of ground stations. The mean standard deviation of single-sounding SCIAMACHY–FTS differences is ∼ 115‰, which is reduced by a factor ∼ 2 when we consider monthly means. When we relax the strict matching of individual measurements and focus on the mean seasonalities using all available FTS data, we find that the correlation coefficients between SCIAMACHY and the FTS networks improve from 0.2 to 0.7–0.8. Certain ground stations show a clear asymmetry in δD during the transition from the dry to the wet season and back, which is also detected by SCIAMACHY. This asymmetry points to a transition in the source region temperature or location of the water vapor, and shows the added information that HDO/H2O measurements provide, if used in combination with variations in humidity.

scholarly journals Evapotranspiration in the Amazon: spatial patterns, seasonality and recent trends in observations, reanalysis and CMIP models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica C. A. Baker ◽  
Luis Garcia-Carreras ◽  
Manuel Gloor ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Wolfgang Buermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Spatial And Seasonal Variation ◽  
Balance Analysis

Abstract. Water recycled through transpiring forests influences the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Amazon and has been shown to play a role in the initiation of the wet season. However, due to the challenges and costs associated with measuring evapotranspiration (ET) directly, plus the high uncertainty and discrepancies across remote-sensing retrievals of ET, spatial and temporal patterns in this key component of the Amazon hydrological cycle remain poorly understood. In this study, we estimated ET over the Amazon and ten sub-basins using a catchment-balance approach, whereby ET is calculated directly as the balance between precipitation, runoff and change in groundwater storage. We compared our results with ET from remote-sensing datasets, reanalysis, models from the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and in-situ flux-tower measurements, to provide a comprehensive overview of current understanding. Catchment-balance analysis revealed a gradient in ET from east to west/southwest across the Amazon basin, a strong seasonal cycle in basin-mean ET controlled by net incoming radiation, and no trend in ET over the past two decades. Satellite datasets, reanalysis and climate models all tended to overestimate the magnitude of ET relative to catchment-balance estimates, underestimate seasonal and interannual variability, and show conflicting positive and negative trends. Only two out of six satellite and model datasets analysed reproduced spatial and seasonal variation in Amazon ET, and captured the same controls on ET as indicated by catchment-balance analysis. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ET was inconsistent with catchment-balance estimates over all scales analysed. Overall, the discrepancies between data products and models revealed by our analysis demonstrate a need for more ground-based ET measurements in the Amazon, and to substantially improve model representation of this fundamental component of the Amazon hydrological cycle.

scholarly journals Drivers of future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub>

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 5315-5327 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Angeles Gallego ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Tobias Friedrich ◽  
Richard E. Zeebe
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Recent Observation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Total Alkalinity ◽  
Seasonal Effect ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Cycle Amplitude ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. Recent observation-based results show that the seasonal amplitude of surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) has been increasing on average at a rate of 2–3 µatm per decade (Landschützer et al., 2018). Future increases in pCO2 seasonality are expected, as marine CO2 concentration ([CO2]) will increase in response to increasing anthropogenic carbon emissions (McNeil and Sasse, 2016). Here we use seven different global coupled atmosphere–ocean–carbon cycle–ecosystem model simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to study future projections of the pCO2 annual cycle amplitude and to elucidate the causes of its amplification. We find that for the RCP8.5 emission scenario the seasonal amplitude (climatological maximum minus minimum) of upper ocean pCO2 will increase by a factor of 1.5 to 3 over the next 60–80 years. To understand the drivers and mechanisms that control the pCO2 seasonal amplification we develop a complete analytical Taylor expansion of pCO2 seasonality in terms of its four drivers: dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), temperature (T), and salinity (S). Using this linear approximation we show that the DIC and T terms are the dominant contributors to the total change in pCO2 seasonality. To first order, their future intensification can be traced back to a doubling of the annual mean pCO2, which enhances DIC and alters the ocean carbonate chemistry. Regional differences in the projected seasonal cycle amplitude are generated by spatially varying sensitivity terms. The subtropical and equatorial regions (40∘ S–40∘ N) will experience a ≈30–80 µatm increase in seasonal cycle amplitude almost exclusively due to a larger background CO2 concentration that amplifies the T seasonal effect on solubility. This mechanism is further reinforced by an overall increase in the seasonal cycle of T as a result of stronger ocean stratification and a projected shoaling of mean mixed layer depths. The Southern Ocean will experience a seasonal cycle amplification of ≈90–120 µatm in response to the mean pCO2-driven change in the mean DIC contribution and to a lesser extent to the T contribution. However, a decrease in the DIC seasonal cycle amplitude somewhat counteracts this regional amplification mechanism.

scholarly journals Evapotranspiration in the Amazon: spatial patterns, seasonality, and recent trends in observations, reanalysis, and climate models

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 2279-2300
Author(s):  
Jessica C. A. Baker ◽  
Luis Garcia-Carreras ◽  
Manuel Gloor ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Wolfgang Buermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Spatial And Seasonal Variation ◽  
Balance Analysis

Abstract. Water recycled through transpiring forests influences the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Amazon and has been shown to play a role in the initiation of the wet season. However, due to the challenges and costs associated with measuring evapotranspiration (ET) directly and high uncertainty in remote-sensing ET retrievals, the spatial and temporal patterns in Amazon ET remain poorly understood. In this study, we estimated ET over the Amazon and 10 sub-basins using a catchment-balance approach, whereby ET is calculated directly as the balance between precipitation, runoff, and change in groundwater storage. We compared our results with ET from remote-sensing datasets, reanalysis, models from Phase 5 and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6 respectively), and in situ flux tower measurements to provide a comprehensive overview of current understanding. Catchment-balance analysis revealed a gradient in ET from east to west/southwest across the Amazon Basin, a strong seasonal cycle in basin-mean ET primarily controlled by net incoming radiation, and no trend in ET over the past 2 decades. This approach has a degree of uncertainty, due to errors in each of the terms of the water budget; therefore, we conducted an error analysis to identify the range of likely values. Satellite datasets, reanalysis, and climate models all tended to overestimate the magnitude of ET relative to catchment-balance estimates, underestimate seasonal and interannual variability, and show conflicting positive and negative trends. Only two out of six satellite and model datasets analysed reproduced spatial and seasonal variation in Amazon ET, and captured the same controls on ET as indicated by catchment-balance analysis. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ET was inconsistent with catchment-balance estimates over all scales analysed. Overall, the discrepancies between data products and models revealed by our analysis demonstrate a need for more ground-based ET measurements in the Amazon as well as a need to substantially improve model representation of this fundamental component of the Amazon hydrological cycle.

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