Contrasting Behaviors between the Rapidly Intensifying and Slowly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 987-1003
Author(s):  
Xinxi Wang ◽  
Haiyan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
The North ◽  
Prediction Scheme ◽  
Westerly Flow ◽  
First Time

AbstractBased on 35-yr (1982–2016) best track and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme data, this study examined climatology of rapidly intensifying (RI) and slowly intensifying (SI) events as well as their time evolutions of storm-related and environmental parameters for tropical cyclones (TCs) in both North Atlantic (AL) and eastern North Pacific (EP) basins. Major hurricanes were intensified mainly through RI while tropical depression and tropical storms were intensified through SI. The percentage of TCs that underwent RI peaks in the late hurricane season whereas the percentage of TCs that underwent SI peaks early. For the first time in the literature, this study found that RI events have significantly different storm-related and environmental characteristics than SI events for before-, during-, and after-event stages. In both AL and EP basins, RI events always intensify significantly faster during the previous 12 h, are located farther south, and have warmer sea surface and 200-hPa temperatures, greater ocean heat content, larger 200-hPa divergence, weaker vertical wind shear, and weaker 200-hPa westerly flow than SI events for all event-relative stages. In the AL basin, RI events have larger low-level and midlevel relative humidity and larger 850-hPa relative vorticity than SI events for all event-relative stages in the AL and most event-relative stages in the EP. RI events are associated with more convectively unstable atmosphere and are farther away from their maximum potential intensities than SI events for most event-relative stages in the AL and for all event-relative stages in the EP.

scholarly journals A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8674-8685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chenoweth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
News Reports ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
First Time

Abstract A comprehensive new compilation of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the years 1851–98 is presented and compared with the second-generation North Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) for the same years. This new analysis is based on the retrieval of 9072 newspaper marine shipping news reports, 1260 original logbook records, 271 Maury abstract logs, 147 U.S. marine meteorological journals, and 34 Met Office (UKMO) logbooks. Records from throughout North America and the Caribbean region were used along with other primary and secondary references holding unique land and marine data. For the first time, North Atlantic daily weather maps for 1864/65, 1873, and 1881–98 were used in historical tropical cyclone research. Results for the years 1851–98 include the omission of 62 of the 361 HURDAT2 storms, and the further reduction resulting from the merging of storms to a total of 288 unique HURDAT2 tropical cyclones. The new compilation gave a total of 497 tropical cyclones in the 48-yr record, or an average of 10.4 storms per year compared to 6.0 per year in HURDAT2 less the author’s omissions. Of this total, 209 storms are completely new. A total of 90 hurricanes made landfall in the United States during this time. Seven new U.S. landfalling hurricanes are present in the new dataset but not in HURDAT2. Eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in HURDAT2 are now considered to have only tropical storm impact or were actually extratropical at landfall. Across the North Atlantic, the number of category-4 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, compared with HURDAT2, increased from 11 to 25, 6 of which made U.S. landfall at category-4 level.

Modulation of North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones by tropical trans-basin variability and ENSO during May-October

2020 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Shaohua Chen ◽  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Graciela B. Raga ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Scale Factors ◽  
Frequency Changes ◽  
Dipole Modulation

AbstractThis study highlights the distinct modulation of May-October tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP) and North Atlantic (NATL) basins by tropical trans-basin variability (TBV) and ENSO. The pure TBV significantly modulates total TC counts in all three basins, with more TCs in the WNP and ENP and fewer TCs in the NATL during warm TBV years and fewer TCs in the WNP and ENP and more TCs in the NATL during cold TBV years. By contrast, the pure ENSO signal shows no impact on total TC count over any of the three basins. These results are consistent with changes in large scale factors associated with TBV and ENSO. Low-level relative vorticity (VOR) is an important driver of WNP TC genesis frequency, with broad agreement between the observed spatial distribution of TC genesis and TBV/ENSO-associated VOR anomalies. TBV significantly affects ENP TC frequency due to changes in basin wide vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures, while the modulation in TC frequency by ENSO is primarily caused by a north-south dipole modulation of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic factors. The pure TBV-related low-level VOR changes appear to be the most important factor modulating NATL TC frequency. Changes in large-scale factors compare well with the budget of synoptic-scale eddy kinetic energy. Possible physical processes associated with pure TBV and pure ENSO that modulate TC frequency are further discussed. This study contributes to the understanding of TC inter-annual variability and could thus be helpful for seasonal TC forecasting.

scholarly journals Lightning in Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones: A Comparison to the North Atlantic

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie N. Stevenson ◽  
Kristen L. Corbosiero ◽  
Sergio F. Abarca
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract As global lightning detection has become more reliable, many studies have analyzed the characteristics of lightning in tropical cyclones (TCs); however, very few studies have examined flashes in eastern North Pacific (ENP) basin TCs. This study uses lightning detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) to explore the relationship between lightning and sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the diurnal cycle, the storm motion and vertical wind shear vectors, and the 24-h intensity change in ENP TCs during 2006–14. The results are compared to storms in the North Atlantic (NA). Higher flash counts were found over warmer SSTs, with 28°–30°C SSTs experiencing the highest 6-hourly flash counts. Most TC lightning flashes occurred at night and during the early morning hours, with minimal activity after local noon. The ENP peak (0800 LST) was slightly earlier than the NA (0900–1100 LST). Despite similar storm motion directions and differing vertical wind shear directions in the two basins, shear dominated the overall azimuthal lightning distribution. Lightning was most often observed downshear left in the inner core (0–100 km) and downshear right in the outer rainbands (100–300 km). A caveat to these relationships were fast-moving ENP TCs with opposing shear and motion vectors, in which lightning peaked downmotion (upshear) instead. Finally, similar to previous studies, higher flash densities in the inner core (outer rainbands) were associated with nonintensifying (intensifying) TCs. This last result constitutes further evidence in the efforts to associate lightning activity to TC intensity forecasting.

scholarly journals Impacts of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 853-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Si Gao ◽  
Zhifan Chen ◽  
Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Tropical North Atlantic ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

This study examines the impacts of tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on western North Pacific (WNP) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The authors find that TNA SSTA has significant negative correlations with the frequency of TCs making landfall in China, Vietnam, the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and the entirety of East Asia. TNA SSTA influences the frequency of TC landfalls in these regions by regulating TC genesis location and frequency associated with modulated environmental conditions. During cold TNA SST years, larger low-level relative vorticity and weaker vertical wind shear lead to more TC formations over the South China Sea (SCS) and western Philippine Sea (WPS), and larger low-level relative vorticity, higher midlevel relative humidity, and weaker vertical wind shear result in more TC formations over the eastern part of WNP (EWNP). More TCs forming over different regions are important for more TC landfalls in Vietnam (mainly forming over the SCS and WPS), south China (predominantly forming over the SCS), Taiwan (mostly forming over the WPS), and the Korean Peninsula and Japan (forming over the WPS and EWNP). Tracks of these landfalling TCs basically follow the mean steering flow in spite of different directions of steering flow anomalies in the vicinity. The modulation of large-scale environments by TNA SSTA may be through two possible pathways proposed in previous studies: the Indian Ocean relaying effect and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effect. The results of this study suggest that TNA SSTA is a potential predictor for the frequency of TCs making landfall in China, Vietnam, the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and the entirety of East Asia.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Maximum Intensification Rate of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (12) ◽  
pp. 4979-4988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Xu ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Zhe-Min Tan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract An empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988–2014. Similar to the empirical relationship between SST and the maximum potential intensity of TCs previously documented, results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST, with a more rapid increasing trend when SST is higher than 27°C. Further analyses indicate that about 28% of intensifying TCs over the North Atlantic reached 50% of their MPIR and only 7% reached 80% of their MPIR at the time when they were at their lifetime maximum intensification rates. Moreover, a TC tended to have a larger intensification rate when it was located in regions with higher SST and lower vertical wind shear (VWS). This indicates that although the MPIR–SST relationship is much stronger than that for the IR rate versus SST for most TCs, the actual intensification rate of a TC is determined by not only the SST but also other environmental effects, such as VWS. Additional results from a simplified dynamical system previously developed for TC intensity prediction suggest an SST-dependent TC MPIR, similar to that fitted from observations. However, the MPIR obtained from the observational fitting seems to underestimate the MPIR in regions with low SST at higher latitudes where VWS is often large. Nevertheless, this study provides the observational evidence for the existence of the MPIR for TCs.

scholarly journals Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 4367-4389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Studholme ◽  
Sergey Gulev
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Direct Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme North

AbstractPoleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to the present. Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward–equatorward migrations over centennial–millennial time scales. Hadley circulation (HC) is often both implicitly and explicitly invoked to provide dynamical linkages to these shifts, although no direct analysis of concurrent changes in the recent period has been presented. Here, the observational TC record (1981–2016) and ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 are studied to examine potential relationships between the two. A zonally asymmetric HC is defined by employing Helmholtz theory for vector decomposition, and this permits the derivation of novel HC diagnostics local to TC basins.Coherent variations in both long-term linear trends and detrended interannual variability are found. TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity latitudes share trend sign and magnitude with shifts in local HC extent, with rates being approximately 0.25° ± 0.1° lat decade−1. Both these life cycle stages in hemispheric means and all Pacific TC basins, as well as poleward-extreme North Atlantic lysis latitudes, shared approximately 35% of their interannual variability with HC extent. Local HC intensity is linked only to eastern North Pacific TC latitudes, where strong local overturning corresponds to equatorward TC shifts. Examination of potential dynamical linkages implicates La Niña–like sea surface temperature gradients to poleward HC termini. This corresponds to increased tropical and reduced subtropical vertical wind shear everywhere except in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific, where the opposite is true. These results quantify a long-hypothesized link between TCs and the large-scale oceanic–atmospheric state.

scholarly journals Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon Gyres

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 1023-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liguang Wu ◽  
Huijun Zong ◽  
Jia Liang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
Monsoon Gyre

Abstract Large-scale monsoon gyres and the involved tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific have been documented in previous studies. The aim of this study is to understand how monsoon gyres affect tropical cyclone formation. An observational study is conducted on monsoon gyres during the period 2000–10, with a focus on their structures and the associated tropical cyclone formation. A total of 37 monsoon gyres are identified in May–October during 2000–10, among which 31 monsoon gyres are accompanied with the formation of 42 tropical cyclones, accounting for 19.8% of the total tropical cyclone formation. Monsoon gyres are generally located on the poleward side of the composited monsoon trough with a peak occurrence in August–October. Extending about 1000 km outward from the center at lower levels, the cyclonic circulation of the composited monsoon gyre shrinks with height and is replaced with negative relative vorticity above 200 hPa. The maximum winds of the composited monsoon gyre appear 500–800 km away from the gyre center with a magnitude of 6–10 m s−1 at 850 hPa. In agreement with previous studies, the composited monsoon gyre shows enhanced southwesterly flow and convection on the south-southeastern side. Most of the tropical cyclones associated with monsoon gyres are found to form near the centers of monsoon gyres and the northeastern end of the enhanced southwesterly flows, accompanying relatively weak vertical wind shear.

scholarly journals The seasonal cycle of δ<sup>3</sup>C<sub>DIC</sub> in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1683-1692 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Racapé ◽  
N. Metzl ◽  
C. Pierre ◽  
G. Reverdin ◽  
P. D. Quay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
Winter Convection ◽  
North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Negative Linear Relationship

Abstract. This study introduces for the first time the δ13CDIC seasonality in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG) using δ13CDIC data obtained in 2005–2006 and 2010–2012 with dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrient observations. On the seasonal scale, the NASPG is characterized by higher δ13CDIC values during summer than during winter, with a seasonal amplitude between 0.70 ± 0.10‰ (August 2010–March 2011) and 0.77 ± 0.07‰ (2005–2006). This is mainly attributed to photosynthetic activity in summer and to a deep remineralization process during winter convection, sometimes influenced by ocean dynamics and carbonate pumps. There is also a strong and negative linear relationship between δ13CDIC and DIC during all seasons. Winter data also showed a large decrease in δ13CDIC associated with an increase in DIC between 2006 and 2011–2012, but the observed time rates (−0.04‰ yr−1and +1.7 μmol kg−1 yr−1) are much larger than the expected anthropogenic signal.

scholarly journals Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 809-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien G. Desbruyères ◽  
Herlé Mercier ◽  
Guillaume Maze ◽  
Nathalie Daniault
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Key Aspects

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond.

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