Changes in lengths of the four seasons over the drylands in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jiamin Wang ◽  
Xiaodan Guan ◽  
Yuping Guan ◽  
Kaiwei Zhu ◽  
Rui Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractDue to global warming, the lengths of the four seasons, which are always taken as constant values, have experienced significant variations with rising temperature. Such changes play different roles on regional climate change, with the most significant effect on drylands. To guarantee local crop yields and preserve ecosystems, the identification of the changes of the four seasons in drylands is important. Our results show that, relative to humid lands, changing trends in lengths of spring, summer and autumn were particularly enhanced in drylands of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during 1951-2020. In this period, summer length has increased by 0.51 day per year, while spring and autumn lengths have contracted by 0.14 and 0.14 day per year, respectively. However, the enhanced changes in drylands did not appear in winter length. Such changes of spring, summer and autumn in drylands are dominated by internal variability over the entire study period, with a stronger external forcing effect on drylands than on humid lands. In drylands, the external forcing contributed to the changes in lengths of spring, summer and autumn by 30.1%, 42.2% and 29.4%, respectively. The external forcing has become an increasingly important component since 1990, with the ability to dominate all seasons in drylands after 2010. Nevertheless, only one out of the 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models used in this study can capture the enhanced changes in the lengths of spring, summer and autumn in drylands. Further investigation on the local effects of changes in seasons on agriculture and ecosystem would be needed, especially for the fragile regions.

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere Snow-Cover Trends (1967–2018): A Comparison between Climate Models and Observations

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
◽  
◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Autumn And Winter

Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from satellite records were compared to those predicted by all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (“CMIP5”) climate models over the duration of the satellite’s records, i.e., 1967–2018. A total of 196 climate model runs were analyzed (taken from 24 climate models). Separate analyses were conducted for the annual averages and for each of the seasons (winter, spring, summer, and autumn/fall). A longer record (1922–2018) for the spring season which combines ground-based measurements with satellite measurements was also compared to the model outputs. The climate models were found to poorly explain the observed trends. While the models suggest snow cover should have steadily decreased for all four seasons, only spring and summer exhibited a long-term decrease, and the pattern of the observed decreases for these seasons was quite different from the modelled predictions. Moreover, the observed trends for autumn and winter suggest a long-term increase, although these trends were not statistically significant. Possible explanations for the poor performance of the climate models are discussed.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

scholarly journals Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 393-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Fernández-Donado ◽  
J. F. González-Rouco ◽  
C. C. Raible ◽  
C. M. Ammann ◽  
D. Barriopedro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Variability ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Major Player ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (17) ◽  
pp. 6803-6819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo-Joung Park ◽  
Yeon-Hee Kim ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Eun-Pa Lim
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Season Length ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal–inland contrast; summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953–2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about ±10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes.

scholarly journals Continentality and Oceanity in the Mid and High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edvinas Stonevicius ◽  
Gintautas Stankunavicius ◽  
Egidijus Rimkus
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

The climate continentality or oceanity is one of the main characteristics of the local climatic conditions, which varies with global and regional climate change. This paper analyzes indexes of continentality and oceanity, as well as their variations in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1950–2015. Climatology and changes in continentality and oceanity are examined using Conrad’s Continentality Index (CCI) and Kerner’s Oceanity Index (KOI). The impact of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on continentality/oceanity conditions was also evaluated. According to CCI, continentality is more significant in Northeast Siberia and lower along the Pacific coast of North America as well as in coastal areas in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. However, according to KOI, areas of high continentality do not precisely correspond with those of low oceanity, appearing to the south and west of those identified by CCI. The spatial patterns of changes in continentality thus seem to be different. According to CCI, a statistically significant increase in continentality has only been found in Northeast Siberia. In contrast, in the western part of North America and the majority of Asia, continentality has weakened. According to KOI, the climate has become increasingly continental in Northern Europe and the majority of North America and East Asia. Oceanity has increased in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in some parts of the Mediterranean region. Changes in continentality were primarily related to the increased temperature of the coldest month as a consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation: the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns has dominated in winter in recent decades. Trends in oceanity may be connected with the diminishing extent of seasonal sea ice and an associated increase in sea surface temperature.

scholarly journals Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Regional Analyses ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. This article extends a previous study (Seneviratne et al., 2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global temperature targets, such as the 2 degree and 1.5 degree limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

scholarly journals High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 3087-3103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanghe Gu ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Chuanguo Yang ◽  
Qin Ju ◽  
Tao Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated and used to project future regional climate change in China. The influences of model uncertainty and internal variability on projections are also identified. The RCMs simulate the historical (1980–2005) climate and future (2006–2049) climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China, including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwestern China, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results show that (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and that a multi-model ensemble (MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs are confirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature during the historical period. (2) For future (2030–2049) climate, the MME indicates consistent warming trends at around 1 ∘C in the entire domain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. The annual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region, except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change in annual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with the results from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a larger magnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals for projected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the driving GCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises from the internal variability over northern and southern China and the model uncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected mean precipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variability over most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the model uncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases with prediction lead time across all subregions.

scholarly journals Improved Simulation of Regional Climate by Global Models with Higher Resolution: Skill Scores Correlated with Grid Length*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (15) ◽  
pp. 5985-6000 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. G. Watterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
Grid Length

Abstract The current generation of climate models, as represented by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), has previously been assessed as having more skill in simulating the observed climate than the previous ensemble from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). Furthermore, the skill of models in reproducing seasonal means of precipitation, temperature, and pressure from two observational datasets, quantified by the nondimensional Arcsin–Mielke skill score, appeared to be influenced by model resolution. The analysis is extended to 42 CMIP5 and 24 CMIP3 models. For the combined skill scores for six continents, averaged over the three variables and four seasons, the correlation with model grid length in the 66-model ensemble is −0.73. Focusing on the comparison with ERA-Interim data at higher resolution and with greater regional detail, correlations are nearly as strong for scores over the ocean domain as for land. For the global domain (excluding the Antarctic cap), the correlation of the overall skill score with grid length is −0.61, and it is nearly as strong for each variable. For most tests the improved averaged score of CMIP5 models relative to those from CMIP3 is largely consistent with their increased resolution. However, the improvement for precipitation and the correlations with length are both smaller if rmse is used as a metric. They are smaller again using the GPCP observational data, as the regional detail from a high-resolution model can lead to larger differences when compared to relatively smooth observational fields.

scholarly journals Reduced complexity model intercomparison project phase 1: Protocol, results and initial observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Jared Lewis ◽  
Robert Gieseke ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reduced Complexity

Abstract. Here we present results from the first phase of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). RCMIP is a systematic examination of reduced complexity climate models (RCMs), which are used to complement and extend the insights from more complex Earth System Models (ESMs), in particular those participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In Phase 1 of RCMIP, with 14 participating models namely ACC2, AR5IR (2 and 3 box versions), CICERO-SCM, ESCIMO, FaIR, GIR, GREB, Hector, Held et al. two layer model, MAGICC, MCE, OSCAR and WASP, we highlight the structural differences across various RCMs and show that RCMs are capable of reproducing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) changes of ESMs and historical observations. We find that some RCMs are capable of emulating the GSAT response of CMIP6 models to within a root-mean square error of 0.2 °C (of the same order of magnitude as ESM internal variability) over a range of scenarios. Running the same model configurations for both RCP and SSP scenarios, we see that the SSPs exhibit higher effective radiative forcing throughout the second half of the 21st Century. Comparing our results to the difference between CMIP5 and CMIP6 output, we find that the change in scenario explains approximately 46 % of the increase in higher end projected warming between CMIP5 and CMIP6. This suggests that changes in ESMs from CMIP5 to CMIP6 explain the rest of the increase, hence the higher climate sensitivities of available CMIP6 models may not be having as large an impact on GSAT projections as first anticipated. A second phase of RCMIP will complement RCMIP Phase 1 by exploring probabilistic results and emulation in more depth to provide results available for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report author teams.

scholarly journals Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (16) ◽  
pp. 9591-9618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
Ryan J. Kramer ◽  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
Kari Alterskjær ◽  
William Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

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