Differences in the Potential Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change to the Athabasca and Fraser River Basins of Canada with and without Considering Shifts in Vegetation Patterns Induced by Climate Change

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 963-976 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Kerkhoven ◽  
T. Y. Gan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Vegetation Patterns ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Fraser River ◽  
Soil System ◽  
Vegetation Shifts ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract The research objectives are to estimate differences between the potential impact of climatic change to the Athabasca River basin (ARB) and Fraser River basin (FRB) of Canada with and without considering shifts in vegetation patterns induced by climate change and how much the difference will depend on vegetation types and climate. The hydrologic effects of vegetation shifts on ARB and FRB were estimated by applying the Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil System (MAPSS) simulated results based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s First and Second Assessment Report general circulation model (GCM) scenarios to the modified Interaction Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (MISBA) scheme. According to MAPSS, vegetation shifts in mountainous regions of FRB are expected to be dominated by conifer/broadleaf competition, while in ARB, climate projections of MAPSS predicted a southern expansion of the boreal forest. Because of differences in sublimation, there is a tendency for more snow to accumulate in open grassland than forests. Furthermore, changes to simulated mean annual maximum snowpack, runoff, and basin area covered by grassland are positively correlated to each other. Generally, a 4% increase in snow water equivalent (SWE) results in a 1% increase in mean annual runoff. These relationships hold true in both basins over a wide range of GCM-projected climate conditions and vegetation responses, suggesting that most changes in mean annual flow can be attributed to changes in SWE. Because of the different modeling approaches between MAPSS and MISBA, it seems that the treatment of these processes in vegetation and hydrologic models should be similar before conclusions can be drawn from various stand-alone simulations. Ideally, a land surface scheme should be coupled with a vegetation model in future studies.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Changing the Climate Sensitivity of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model through Cloud Radiative Adjustment

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6567-6584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei P. Sokolov ◽  
Erwan Monier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Adjustment Method ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Perturbed Physics

Abstract Conducting probabilistic climate projections with a particular climate model requires the ability to vary the model’s characteristics, such as its climate sensitivity. In this study, the authors implement and validate a method to change the climate sensitivity of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3), through cloud radiative adjustment. Results show that the cloud radiative adjustment method does not lead to physically unrealistic changes in the model’s response to an external forcing, such as doubling CO2 concentrations or increasing sulfate aerosol concentrations. Furthermore, this method has some advantages compared to the traditional perturbed physics approach. In particular, the cloud radiative adjustment method can produce any value of climate sensitivity within the wide range of uncertainty based on the observed twentieth century climate change. As a consequence, this method allows Monte Carlo–type probabilistic climate forecasts to be conducted where values of uncertain parameters not only cover the whole uncertainty range, but cover it homogeneously. Unlike the perturbed physics approach that can produce several versions of a model with the same climate sensitivity but with very different regional patterns of change, the cloud radiative adjustment method can only produce one version of the model with a specific climate sensitivity. As such, a limitation of this method is that it cannot cover the full uncertainty in regional patterns of climate change.

scholarly journals Downscaling GCM data for climate change impact assessments on rainfall: a practical application for the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Dahm ◽  
U. K. Singh ◽  
M. Lal ◽  
M. Marchand ◽  
F. C. Sperna Weiland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Rainfall Extremes

Abstract. The delta of the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin, located in the eastern part of India, frequently experiences severe floods. For flood risk analysis and water system design, insights in the possible future changes in extreme rainfall events caused by climate change are of major importance. There is a wide range of statistical and dynamical downscaling and bias-correction methods available to generate local climate projections that also consider changes in rainfall extremes. Yet the applicability of these methods highly depends on availability of meteorological observations at local level. In the developing countries data and model availability may be limited, either due to the lack of actual existence of these data or because political data sensitivity hampers open sharing. We here present the climate change analysis we performed for the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin focusing on changes in four selected indices for rainfall extremes using data from three performance-based selected GCMs that are part of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We apply and compare two widely used and easy to implement bias correction approaches. These methods were selected as best suited due to the absence of reliable long historic meteorological data. We present the main changes – likely increases in monsoon rainfall especially in the Mountainous regions and a likely increase of the number of heavy rain days. In addition, we discuss the gap between state-of-the-art downscaling techniques and the actual options one is faced with in local scale climate change assessments.

scholarly journals Assessment of future rainfall for the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin – practical implications of limited data availability

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 782-798
Author(s):  
R. J. Dahm ◽  
F. C. Sperna Weiland ◽  
U. K. Singh ◽  
M. Lal ◽  
M. Marchand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Severe floods are common in the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin in India. Insights into the implications of climate change on rainfall extremes and resulting floods are of major importance to improve flood risk analysis and water system design. A wide range of statistical and dynamical downscaling and bias-correction methods for the generation of local climate projections exists. Yet, the applicability of these methods highly depends on availability of meteorological data. In developing countries, data availability is often limited, either because data do not exist or because of restrictions on use. We here present a climate change analysis for the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin focusing on changes in rainfall using data from three GCMs from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that were selected based on their performance. We apply and compare two widely used and easy to implement bias-correction methods. These were selected because reliable open historical meteorological datasets required for advanced methods were not available. The results indicate likely increases in monsoon rainfall especially in the mountainous regions and likely increases in the number of heavy rain days. We conclude with a discussion on the gap between state-of-the-art downscaling techniques and the actual options in regional climate change assessments.

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Snow and Water Resources of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siraj ul Islam ◽  
Stephen J. Déry ◽  
Arelia T. Werner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fraser River

Abstract Changes in air temperature and precipitation can modify snowmelt-driven runoff in snowmelt-dominated regimes. This study focuses on climate change impacts on the snow hydrology of the Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Statistically downscaled forcing datasets based on 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive VIC for two 30-yr time periods, a historical baseline (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–69: 2050s), under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ensemble-based VIC simulations reveal widespread and regionally coherent spatial changes in snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover over the FRB by the 2050s. While the mean precipitation is projected to increase slightly, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is projected to decrease by nearly 50% in the 2050s compared to the baseline. Snow accumulation and snow-covered area are projected to decline substantially across the FRB, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. Onset of springtime snowmelt in the 2050s is projected to be nearly 25 days earlier than historically, yielding more runoff in the winter and spring for the Fraser River at Hope, BC, and earlier recession to low-flow volumes in summer. The ratio of snowmelt contribution to runoff decreases by nearly 20% in the Stuart and Nautley subbasins of the FRB in the 2050s. The decrease in SWE and loss of snow cover is greater from low to midelevations than in high elevations, where temperatures remain sufficiently cold for precipitation to fall as snow.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

scholarly journals Comparison of regional characteristics of land precipitation climatology projected by an MRI-AGCM multi-cumulus scheme and multi-SST ensemble with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Ito ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa ◽  
Izuru Takayabu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
High Performing

AbstractEnsembles of climate change projections created by general circulation models (GCMs) with high resolution are increasingly needed to develop adaptation strategies for regional climate change. The Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric GCM version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2), which is listed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), has been typically run with resolutions of 60 km and 20 km. Ensembles of MRI-AGCM3.2 consist of members with multiple cumulus convection schemes and different patterns of future sea surface temperature, and are utilized together with their downscaled data; however, the limited size of the high-resolution ensemble may lead to undesirable biases and uncertainty in future climate projections that will limit its appropriateness and effectiveness for studies on climate change and impact assessments. In this study, to develop a comprehensive understanding of the regional precipitation simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2, we investigate how well MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the present-day regional precipitation around the globe and compare the uncertainty in future precipitation changes and the change projection itself between MRI-AGCM3.2 and the CMIP5 multiple atmosphere–ocean coupled GCM (AOGCM) ensemble. MRI-AGCM3.2 reduces the bias of the regional mean precipitation obtained with the high-performing CMIP5 models, with a reduction of approximately 20% in the bias over the Tibetan Plateau through East Asia and Australia. When 26 global land regions are considered, MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the spatial pattern and the regional mean realistically in more regions than the individual CMIP5 models. As for the future projections, in 20 of the 26 regions, the sign of annual precipitation change is identical between the 50th percentiles of the MRI-AGCM3.2 ensemble and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In the other six regions around the tropical South Pacific, the differences in modeling with and without atmosphere–ocean coupling may affect the projections. The uncertainty in future changes in annual precipitation from MRI-AGCM3.2 partially overlaps the maximum–minimum uncertainty range from the full ensemble of the CMIP5 models in all regions. Moreover, on average over individual regions, the projections from MRI-AGCM3.2 spread over roughly 0.8 of the uncertainty range from the high-performing CMIP5 models compared to 0.4 of the range of the full ensemble.

Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement and rice yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Shrestha ◽  
N. M. M. Thin ◽  
P. Deb
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Irrigation Project ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Increasing Trend

This study analyzes the impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirement (IWR) and yield for rainfed rice and irrigated paddy, respectively, at Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar. Climate projections from two General Circulation Models, namely ECHAM5 and HadCM3 were derived for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The climate variables were downscaled to basin level by using the Statistical DownScaling Model. The AquaCrop model was used to simulate the yield and IWR under future climate. The analysis shows a decreasing trend in maximum temperature for three scenarios and three time windows considered; however, an increasing trend is observed for minimum temperature for all cases. The analysis on precipitation also suggests that rainfall in wet season is expected to vary largely from −29 to +21.9% relative to the baseline period. A higher variation is observed for the rainfall in dry season ranging from −42% for 2080s, and +96% in the case of 2020s. A decreasing trend of IWR is observed for irrigated paddy under the three scenarios indicating that small irrigation schemes are suitable to meet the requirements. An increasing trend in the yield of rainfed paddy was estimated under climate change demonstrating increased food security in the region.

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1593-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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