scholarly journals Hydrologic State Influence on Riverine Flood Discharge for a Small Temperate Watershed (Fall Creek, United States): Negative Feedbacks on the Effects of Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 431-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
James O. Knighton ◽  
Arthur DeGaetano ◽  
M. Todd Walter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Flood Hydrology

Abstract Watershed flooding is a function of meteorological and hydrologic catchment conditions. Climate change is anticipated to affect air temperature and precipitation patterns such as altered total precipitation, increased intensity, and shorter event durations in the northeastern United States. While significant work has been done to estimate future meteorological conditions, much is currently unknown about future changes to distributions of hydrologic state variables. High-resolution hydrologic simulations of Fall Creek (Tompkins County, New York), a small temperate watershed (324 km2) with seasonal snowmelt, are performed to evaluate future climate change impacts on flood hydrology. The effects of hydrologic state and environmental variables on river flood stage are isolated and the importance of groundwater elevation, unsaturated soil moisture, snowpack, and air temperature is demonstrated. It is shown that the temporal persistence of these hydrologic state variables allows for an influence on watershed flood hydrology for up to 20 days. Finally, six hypothetical climate change forcing scenarios are simulated to estimate the influence of catchment conditions on the watershed runoff response. The possibility of drier summers and wetter springs with a reduced winter snowpack in the Northeast is also simulated. These hydrologic changes influence flood discharge in the opposite direction as climate effects because of a reduced snowpack accumulation and melt time. Strong hydrologic state influence on flood discharge may be most attributable to increased air temperature and decreased precipitation. Hydrologic state variables may change both the location and shape of seasonal flood discharge distributions despite expected consistency in the shape of precipitation statistic distributions.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change—Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12380
Author(s):  
Santosh R. Ghimire ◽  
Joel Corona ◽  
Rajbir Parmar ◽  
Gouri Mahadwar ◽  
Raghavan Srinivasan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Riparian Buffer ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Pamlico River

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA’s Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983–2018) reduced SD from 61–96%, TN from 34–55%, TP from 9–48%, and BD from 53–99%, and raised DO from 4–10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century’s (2070–2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28–94% and BD from 69–93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.

Modeling climate change impacts on the thermal dynamics of polymictic Oneida Lake, New York, United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 300 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Lee Hetherington ◽  
Rebecca L. Schneider ◽  
Lars G. Rudstam ◽  
Gideon Gal ◽  
Arthur T. DeGaetano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Oneida Lake

scholarly journals Future climate change and it`s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine

2017 ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
V. Khokhlov ◽  
N. Yermolenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Southern Ukraine

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity. The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.

Estimating shallow soil available water supply for Douglas-fir forests of the coastal Pacific Northwest: climate change impacts

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.M. Littke ◽  
D. Zabowski ◽  
E. Turnblom ◽  
R.B. Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Shallow Soil ◽  
Severe Climate Change

Douglas-fir forests of the coastal Pacific Northwest experience yearly summer droughts; however, the variation in shallow soil available water supply throughout the region is not well understood nor is the effect of future climate change. Soil moisture sensors were installed in 60 Douglas-fir plantation forests over 6 years. Stands were grouped by physiographic regions to describe differences in climate and available water supply. Monthly available water supply (MAWS) (0–50 cm) was calculated as the average daily available moisture content. MAWS was modeled using monthly climate variables, and the equation was then used to predict the change in MAWS due to mild, moderate, and severe climate change predictions. Regional monthly air temperature and precipitation were strongly predictive of MAWS. Mild to severe climate change are predicted to decrease yearly available water supply by 8% to 19%, while summer available water supply will decrease from 25% to 72%. The greatest decreases due to climate change will be found in the coastal regions of Washington and Oregon due to greater negative effects of temperature on available water supply. Climate change, especially the most severe predictions, was shown to have a sizeable effect on shallow soil available water supply in coastal Douglas-fir forests.

scholarly journals Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Leclerc ◽  
Franck Courchamp ◽  
Céline Bellard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

scholarly journals Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Risk in the United States

Forests ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 3197-3211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyunjin An ◽  
Jianbang Gan ◽  
Sung Cho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wildfire Risk

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Groundwater Levels

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 171-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Li ◽  
Ting Ren ◽  
Patrick L. Kinney ◽  
Andrew Joyner ◽  
Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Related Mortality
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