scholarly journals The Informational Value of Pressure-Based Single-Station Proxies for Storm Activity

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 569-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Krueger ◽  
Hans von Storch
Keyword(s):  
Ground Level ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Informational Content ◽  
Absolute Pressure ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Single Station ◽  
Informational Value

Abstract Air pressure readings and their variations are commonly used to make inferences about storm activity. More precisely, it is assumed that the variation of annual and seasonal statistics of several pressure-based proxies describes changes in the past storm climate qualitatively, an assumption that has yet to be proven. A systematic evaluation of the informational content of five pressure-based proxies for storm activity based on single-station observations of air pressure is presented. The number of deep lows, lower percentiles of pressure, the frequency of absolute pressure tendencies above certain thresholds, as well as mean values and high percentiles of absolute pressure tendencies is examined. Such an evaluation needs long and homogeneous records of wind speed, something that is not available from observations. Consequently, the proxies are examined by using datasets of ground-level wind speeds and air pressure from the NCEP-driven and spectrally nudged regional model, REMO. The proxies are gauged against the 95th and 99th percentile time series of ground-level wind speeds to quantify the relation between pressure-based proxies and storminess. These analyses rely on bootstrap and binomial hypothesis testing. The analyses of single-station-based proxies indicate that the proxies are generally linearly linked to storm activity, and that absolute pressure tendencies have the highest informational content. Further, it is investigated as to whether the proxies have the potential for describing storminess over larger areas, also with regard to surface conditions. It is found that absolute pressure tendencies have improved informational value when describing storm activity over larger areas, while low pressure readings do not show improved informational value.

scholarly journals Evaluation of an Air Pressure–Based Proxy for Storm Activity

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (10) ◽  
pp. 2612-2619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Krueger ◽  
Hans von Storch
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Wind Speeds

Abstract Yearly percentiles of geostrophic wind speeds serve as a widely used proxy for assessing past storm activity. Here, daily geostrophic wind speeds are derived from a geographical triangle of surface air pressure measurements and are used to build yearly frequency distributions. It is commonly believed, however unproven, that the variation of the statistics of strong geostrophic wind speeds describes the variation of statistics of ground-level wind speeds. This study evaluates this approach by examining the correlation between specific annual (seasonal) percentiles of geostrophic and of area-maximum surface wind speeds to determine whether the two distributions are linearly linked in general. The analyses rely on bootstrap and binomial hypothesis testing as well as on analysis of variance. Such investigations require long, homogeneous, and physically consistent data. Because such data are barely existent, regional climate model–generated wind and surface air pressure fields in a fine spatial and temporal resolution are used. The chosen regional climate model is the spectrally nudged and NCEP-driven regional model (REMO) that covers Europe and the North Atlantic. Required distributions are determined from diagnostic 10-m and geostrophic wind speed, which is calculated from model air pressure at sea level. Obtained results show that the variation of strong geostrophic wind speed statistics describes the variation of ground-level wind speed statistics. Annual and seasonal quantiles of geostrophic wind speed and ground-level wind speed are positively linearly related. The influence of low-pass filtering is also considered and found to decrease the quality of the linear link. Moreover, several factors are examined that affect the description of storminess through geostrophic wind speed statistics. Geostrophic wind from sea triangles reflects storm activity better than geostrophic wind from land triangles. Smaller triangles lead to a better description of storminess than bigger triangles.

German Bight Storminess over the Last Century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Krieger ◽  
Oliver Krueger ◽  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Ralf Weisse ◽  
Birger Tinz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Pressure Data ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
North East

<p>Assessing past storm activity provides valuable knowledge for economic and ecological sectors, such as the renewable energy sector, insurances, or health and safety. However, long time series of wind speed measurements are often not available as they are usually hampered by inhomogeneities due to changes in the surroundings of a measurement site, station relocations, and changes in the instrumentation. On the contrary, air pressure measurements provide mostly homogeneous time series as the air pressure is usually unaffected by such factors.</p><p>Therefore, we perform statistical analyses on historical pressure data measured at several locations within the German Bight (southeastern North Sea) between 1897 and 2018. We calculate geostrophic wind speeds from triplets of mean sea level pressure observations that form triangles over the German Bight. We then investigate the evolution of German Bight storminess from 1897 to 2018 through analyzing upper quantiles of geostrophic wind speeds, which act as a proxy for past storm activity. The derivation of storm activity is achieved by enhancing the established triangle proxy method via combining and merging storminess time series from numerous partially overlapping triangles in an ensemble-like manner. The utilized approach allows for the construction of robust, long-term and subdaily German Bight storminess time series. Further, the method provides insights into the underlying uncertainty of the time series.</p><p>The results show that storm activity over the German Bight is subject to multidecadal variability. The latest decades are characterized by an increase in activity from the 1960s to the 1990s, followed by a decline lasting into the 2000s and below-average activity up until present. The results are backed through a comparison with reanalysis products from four datasets, which provide high-resolution wind and pressure data starting in 1979 and offshore wind speed measurements taken from the FINO-WIND project. This study also finds that German Bight storminess positively correlates with storminess in the North-East Atlantic in general. In certain years, however, notably different levels of storm activity in the two regions can be found, which likely result from shifted large-scale circulation patterns.</p>

scholarly journals Aerosol Characterization during the Summer 2017 Huge Fire Event on Mount Vesuvius (Italy) by Remote Sensing and In Situ Observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2001
Author(s):  
Antonella Boselli ◽  
Alessia Sannino ◽  
Mariagrazia D’Emilio ◽  
Xuan Wang ◽  
Salvatore Amoruso
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
Observational Site ◽  
Biomass Burning Aerosol

During the summer of 2017, multiple huge fires occurred on Mount Vesuvius (Italy), dispersing a large quantity of ash in the surrounding area ensuing the burning of tens of hectares of Mediterranean scrub. The fires affected a very large area of the Vesuvius National Park and the smoke was driven by winds towards the city of Naples, causing daily peak values of particulate matter (PM) concentrations at ground level higher than the limit of the EU air quality directive. The smoke plume spreading over the area of Naples in this period was characterized by active (lidar) and passive (sun photometer) remote sensing as well as near-surface (optical particle counter) observational techniques. The measurements allowed us to follow both the PM variation at ground level and the vertical profile of fresh biomass burning aerosol as well as to analyze the optical and microphysical properties. The results evidenced the presence of a layer of fine mode aerosol with large mean values of optical depth (AOD > 0.25) and Ångstrom exponent (γ > 1.5) above the observational site. Moreover, the lidar ratio and aerosol linear depolarization obtained from the lidar observations were about 40 sr and 4%, respectively, consistent with the presence of biomass burning aerosol in the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Traffic Density-Related Black Carbon Distribution: Impact of Wind in a Basin Town

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6490
Author(s):  
Borut Jereb ◽  
Brigita Gajšek ◽  
Gregor Šipek ◽  
Špela Kovše ◽  
Matevz Obrecht
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Carbon Concentration ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Carbon Distribution ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Black Carbon Concentration ◽  
Low Wind Speeds ◽  
Temperature Inversions ◽  
Carbon Concentrations

Black carbon is one of the riskiest particle matter pollutants that is harmful to human health. Although it has been increasingly investigated, factors that depend on black carbon distribution and concentration are still insufficiently researched. Variables, such as traffic density, wind speeds, and ground levels can lead to substantial variations of black carbon concentrations and potential exposure, which is even riskier for people living in less-airy sites. Therefore, this paper “fills the gaps” by studying black carbon distribution variations, concentrations, and oscillations, with special emphasis on traffic density and road segments, at multiple locations, in a small city located in a basin, with frequent temperature inversions and infrequent low wind speeds. As wind speed has a significant impact on black carbon concentration trends, it is critical to present how low wind speeds influence black carbon dispersion in a basin city, and how black carbon is dependent on traffic density. Our results revealed that when the wind reached speeds of 1 ms−1, black carbon concentrations actually increased. In lengthy wind periods, when wind speeds reached 2 or 3 ms−1, black carbon concentrations decreased during rush hour and in the time of severe winter biomass burning. By observing the results, it could be concluded that black carbon persists longer in higher altitudes than near ground level. Black carbon concentration oscillations were also seen as more pronounced on main roads with higher traffic density. The more the traffic decreases and becomes steady, the more black carbon concentrations oscillate.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Circulation Effects on Wind Speed Variability at Turbine Height

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Klink
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North

Abstract Mean monthly wind speed at 70 m above ground level is investigated for 11 sites in Minnesota for the period 1995–2003. Wind speeds at these sites show significant spatial and temporal coherence, with prolonged periods of above- and below-normal values that can persist for as long as 12 months. Monthly variation in wind speed primarily is determined by the north–south pressure gradient, which captures between 22% and 47% of the variability (depending on the site). Regression on wind speed residuals (pressure gradient effects removed) shows that an additional 6%–15% of the variation can be related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Wind speeds showed little correspondence with variation in the Pacific–North American (PNA) circulation index. The effect of the strong El Niño of 1997/98 on the wind speed time series was investigated by recomputing the regression equations with this period excluded. The north–south pressure gradient remains the primary determinant of mean monthly 70-m wind speeds, but with 1997/98 removed the influence of the AO increases at nearly all stations while the importance of the Niño-3.4 SSTs generally decreases. Relationships with the PNA remain small. These results suggest that long-term patterns of low-frequency wind speed (and thus wind power) variability can be estimated using large-scale circulation features as represented by large-scale climatic datasets and by climate-change models.

Northeast Atlantic storminess in centennial reanalyses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Krueger ◽  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Christopher Kadow ◽  
Ralf Weisse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Northeast Atlantic ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Storm Index

<p>Global atmospheric reanalyses are commonly applied for the validation of climate models, diagnostic studies, and driving higher resolution numerical models with the emphasis on assessing climate variability and long-term trends. Over recent years, longer reanalyses spanning a period of more than hundred years have become available. In this study, the variability and long-term trends of storm activity is assessed over the northeast Atlantic in modern centennial reanalysis datasets, namely ERA-20cm, ERA-20c, CERA-20c, and the 20CR-reanalysis suite with 20CRv3 being the most recent one. All reanalyses, except from ERA-20cm, assimilate surface pressure observations, whereby ERA-20C and CERA-20c additionally assimilate surface winds. For the assessment, the well-established storm index of higher annual percentiles of geostrophic wind speeds derived from pressure observations at sea level over a relatively densely monitored marine area is used.</p><p>The results indicate that the examined centennial reanalyses are not able to represent long-term trends of storm activity over the northeast Atlantic, particularly in the earlier years of the period examined when compared with the geostrophic wind index based on pressure observations. Moreover, the reanalyses show inconsistent long-term behaviour when compared with each other. Only in the latter half of the 20th century, the variability of reanalysed and observed storminess time series starts to agree with each other. Additionally, 20CRv3, the most recent centennial reanalysis examined, shows markedly improved results with increased uncertainty, albeit multidecadal storminess variability does not match observed values in earlier times before about 1920.</p><p>The behaviour shown by the centennial reanalyses are likely caused by the increasing number of assimilated observations, changes in the observational databases used, and the different underlying numerical model systems. Furthermore, the results derived from the ERA-20cm reanalysis that does not assimilate any pressure or wind observations suggests that the variability and uncertainty of storminess over the northeast Atlantic is high making it difficult to determine storm activity when numerical models are not bound by observations. The results of this study imply and reconfirm previous findings that the assessment of long-term storminess trends and variability in centennial reanalyses remains a rather delicate matter, at least for the northeast Atlantic region.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Resource and Forecast Modeling of Wind Speed through An Evolutionary Programming Approach for the North of Tehuantepec Isthmus (Cuauhtemotzin, Mexico)

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis López-Manrique ◽  
E. Macias-Melo ◽  
O. May Tzuc ◽  
A. Bassam ◽  
K. Aguilar-Castro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Availability Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Wind Resource

This work studies the characteristics of the wind resource for a location in the north zone of Tehuantepec isthmus. The study was conducted using climatic data from Cuauhtemotzin, Mexico, measured at different altitudes above the ground level. The measured data allowed establishing the profile of wind speeds as well as the analysis of its availability. Analysis results conclude that the behavior of the wind speed presents a bimodal distribution with dominant northeast wind direction (wind flow of sea–land). In addition, the area was identified as feasible for the use of low speed power wind turbines. On the other hand, the application of a new approach for very short-term wind speed forecast (10 min) applying multi-gene genetic programming and global sensitivity analysis is also presented. Using a computational methodology, an exogenous time series with fast computation time and good accuracy was developed for the forecast of the wind speed. The results presented in this work complement the panorama for the evaluation of the resource in an area recognized worldwide for its vast potential for wind power.

A Brief Review of Wind Effects on Buildings and Structures

1966 ◽  
Vol 70 (665) ◽  
pp. 553-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Scruton
Keyword(s):  
Air Flow ◽  
Pressure Fluctuations ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Proximity Effects ◽  
Wind Tunnels ◽  
Wind Loading ◽  
Local Pressure ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Random Forcing

SummaryPresent day structural forms and methods of fabrication have considerably increased the importance of wind as a design consideration. For estimations of the overall stability of a structure and of the local pressure distribution on the cladding, a knowledge of the maximum steady or time-averaged wind loads is usually sufficient. Mind tunnel tests to determine the wind loading coefficients are often made in smooth uniform flow, but for more accurate data account must be taken of the effects of the vertical gradient of wind speed and the turbulence of natural winds. Further research is needed into these effects and also into methods of obtaining a sufficient representation of the natural wind in the wind tunnel.There are a number of ways by which wind excites structures into oscillation; among these are vortex excitation, galloping, proximity effects including buffeting, stalling flutter and classical flutter. The vortex and galloping excitation might be expected to be especially sensitive to the turbulence properties of the air flow. Also, in the absence of any mechanism for instability, atmospheric turbulence may directly excite oscillations through the random forcing by the pressure fluctuations which it produces. Further understanding of this problem must come through research into the effects of turbulence (and to the extent to which these effects may be disregarded), but the range of the conditions is so vast and complicated that it seems unlikely that sufficient aerodynamic and wind data will be accumulated to permit the response of a proposed structure to be calculated with reasonable certainty, and for major projects it is anticipated that comprehensive tests on aeroelastic models in wind tunnels with appropriate turbulent air flow will continue to offer the more reliable predictions.The air flow around buildings is of concern inasmuch as it influences the dispersal of combustion and other gases from the smokestack and also in its effect on the speeds and turbulence of the wind over areas used by pedestrians. The erection of a tall building may cause an increase in wind speeds and gustiness at ground level. These problems of the external flow over buildings are readily examined in wind tunnels. For this purpose tunnels with large working sections are desirable to permit a sufficiently wide area of the neighbourhood to be represented.

scholarly journals A single-station spectral model of the monthly median F-region critical frequency

1996 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Pancheva ◽  
P. Y. Mukhtarov
Keyword(s):  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Constant Component ◽  
Spectral Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
F Region ◽  
Diurnal Course ◽  
Single Station ◽  
Short Term Prediction

A new single-station monthly median model of the F-region critical frequency has been obtained. A goniometric functional approximation of the monthly median hourly values of f0F2 was accepted. The diurnal course of f0F2 was described by a constant component and four "tides". Only the influence of the annual and semiannual waves in the seasonal course of f0F2 was taken into account. The solar activity was depicted not only by the well known R12 - index, but also by the parameter KR, expressing the linear trend of the monthly mean values of the sunspots for the previous 12 months. The use of this new parameter gives an opportunity for the solar cycle investigated not to be divided into falling and rising parts. The main advantage of the presented monthly median spectral model is that the same approach could be used for the short-term prediction.

scholarly journals First Look at the Occurrence of Horizontally Oriented Ice Crystals over Summit, Greenland

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Cole ◽  
Ryan R. Neely III. ◽  
Robert A. Stillwell
Keyword(s):  
Ground Level ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Ice Crystals ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
Stratiform Clouds ◽  
Monthly Changes ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Monthly Variations

Abstract. The microphysical properties of clouds play a significant role in determining their radiative effect; one of these properties is the orientation of ice crystals. A source of error in current microphysical retrievals and model simulations is the assumption that clouds are composed of only randomly oriented ice crystals (ROIC). This assumption is frequently not true, as evidenced by optical phenomena such as parhelia (commonly referred to as sundogs). Here, observations from the Cloud, Aerosol and Polarization Backscatter Lidar (CAPABL) at Summit, Greenland are utilized along with instruments that are part of the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) project in order to determine when, where and under what conditions horizontally oriented ice crystals (HOIC) occur at Summit, Greenland. Between July 2015 and May 2016, HOIC are observed on 86 days of the 335-day study. HOIC occurred within stratiform clouds on 48 days, in precipitation on 32 days and in cirrus clouds on 14 days. Analysis of all of the cases found that, on average, in comparison to ROIC, HOIC occur at higher temperatures, higher wind speeds and lower heights above ground level. Differences were also present in the relative humidities (RHs) at which HOIC and ROIC occurred in stratiform clouds and precipitation but not in cirrus clouds. Analysis over the whole study period revealed monthly variations in the abundance of HOIC with the number of detections peaking in April and October. Monthly changes were also present in the number of days containing HOIC. The results presented here aim to be the first step towards a comprehensive climatology and understanding of the microphysical processes that lead to the formation of HOIC at Summit, Greenland.

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