The Impact of Ice Phase Cloud Parameterizations on Tropical Cyclone Prediction

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (2) ◽  
pp. 606-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jin ◽  
Shouping Wang ◽  
Jason Nachamkin ◽  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Gregory Thompson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ice Phase

Abstract The impact of ice phase cloud microphysical processes on prediction of tropical cyclone environment is examined for two microphysical parameterizations using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System–Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC) model. An older version of microphysical parameterization is a relatively typical single-moment scheme with five hydrometeor species: cloud water and ice, rain, snow, and graupel. An alternative newer method uses a hybrid approach of double moment in cloud ice and rain and single moment in the other three species. Basin-scale synoptic flow simulations point to important differences between these two schemes. The upper-level cloud ice concentrations produced by the older scheme are up to two orders of magnitude greater than the newer scheme, primarily due to differing assumptions concerning the ice nucleation parameterization. Significant (1°–2°C) warm biases near the 300-hPa level in the control experiments are not present using the newer scheme. The warm bias in the control simulations is associated with the longwave radiative heating near the base of the cloud ice layer. The two schemes produced different track and intensity forecasts for 15 Atlantic storms. Rightward cross-track bias and positive intensity bias in the control forecasts are significantly reduced using the newer scheme. Synthetic satellite imagery of Hurricane Igor (2010) shows more realistic brightness temperatures from the simulations using the newer scheme, in which the inner core structure is clearly discernible. Applying the synthetic satellite imagery in both quantitative and qualitative analyses helped to pinpoint the issue of excessive upper-level cloud ice in the older scheme.

Improvement in Global Cloud-System-Resolving Simulations by Using a Double-Moment Bulk Cloud Microphysics Scheme

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2405-2419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Seiki ◽  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Akira T. Noda ◽  
Masaki Satoh
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Cloud System ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the impact of an alteration of a cloud microphysics scheme on the representation of longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) and its impact on the atmosphere in global cloud-system-resolving simulations. A new double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme is used, and the simulated results are compared with those of a previous study. It is demonstrated that improvements within the new cloud microphysics scheme have the potential to substantially improve climate simulations. The new cloud microphysics scheme represents a realistic spatial distribution of the cloud fraction and LWCRF, particularly near the tropopause. The improvement in the cirrus cloud-top height by the new cloud microphysics scheme substantially reduces the warm bias in atmospheric temperature from the previous simulation via LWCRF by the cirrus clouds. The conversion rate of cloud ice to snow and gravitational sedimentation of cloud ice are the most important parameters for determining the strength of the radiative heating near the tropopause and its impact on atmospheric temperature.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using COAMPS-TC

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 252-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Melinda S. Peng ◽  
Yi Jin ◽  
James D. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A series of experiments have been conducted using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System–Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC) to assess the impact of horizontal resolution on hurricane intensity prediction for 10 Atlantic storms during the 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons. The results of this study from the Hurricane Katrina (2005) simulations indicate that the hurricane intensity and structure are very sensitive to the horizontal grid spacing (9 and 3 km) and underscore the need for cloud microphysics to capture the structure, especially for strong storms with small-diameter eyes and large pressure gradients. The high resolution simulates stronger vertical motions, a more distinct upper-level warm core, stronger upper-level outflow, and greater finescale structure associated with deep convection, including spiral rainbands and the secondary circulation. A vortex Rossby wave (VRW) spectrum analysis is performed on the simulated 10-m winds and the NOAA/Hurricane Research Division (HRD) Real-Time Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) to evaluate the impact of horizontal resolution. The degree to which the VRWs are adequately resolved near the TC inner core is addressed and the associated resolvable wave energy is explored at different grid resolutions. The fine resolution is necessary to resolve higher-wavenumber modes of VRWs to preserve more wave energy and, hence, to attain a more detailed eyewall structure. The wind–pressure relationship from the high-resolution simulations is in better agreement with the observations than are the coarse-resolution simulations for the strong storms. Two case studies are analyzed and overall the statistical analyses indicate that high resolution is beneficial for TC intensity and structure forecasts, while it has little impact on track forecasts.

scholarly journals Satellite-based monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and movement

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-168
Author(s):  
R. R. KELKAR
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Estimation Scheme ◽  
Water Vapour Absorption ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Absorption Channel ◽  
The Impact

    ABSTRACT. Capabilities of meteorological satellites have gone a long way in meeting requirements of synoptic analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones. This paper shows the impact made by the satellite data in the intensity estimation and track prediction of tropical cyclones in the Indian Seas and also reviews the universally applied Dvorak algorithm for performing tropical cyclone intensity analysis. Extensive use of Dvorak's intensity estimation scheme has revealed many of its limitations and elements of subjectivity in the analysis of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which, like cyclones in other ocean basins, also exhibit wide structural variability as seen in the satellite imagery. Satellite-based cyclone tracking techniques include: (i) use of satellite-derived mean wind flow,             (ii) animation of sequence of satellite images and extrapolation of the apparent motion of the cloud system and (iii) monitoring changes in the upper level moisture patterns in the water vapour absorption channel imagery. Satellite-based techniques on tropical cyclone intensity estimation and track prediction have led to very significant improvement in disaster warning and consequent saving of life and property.    

scholarly journals Analisis Kondisi Atmosfer Terkait Siklon Tropis Pabuk Serta Pengaruhnya Terhadap Tinggi Gelombang di Perairan Kepulauan Riau

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Diana Cahaya Siregar ◽  
Vivi Putrima Ardah ◽  
Arlin Martha Navitri
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Atmospheric Condition ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Wavewatch Iii ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Tropical cyclones is a synoptic scale low pressure system which can have an impact, both directly or indirectly to its traversed area. On January 1 to 6, 2019, Pabuk tropical cyclone was active on the South China Sea which its movement was to the west with its maximum wind speed was 64 knots. The aim of this study was to know the impact of Pabuk tropical cyclone to the atmospheric condition and sea wave on the Riau Islands region. This study used convective index analysis using IR1 channel of Himawari-8 satellite imagery and rainfall distribution data from rainfall observation by meteorological stations which are in the Riau Islands region. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data likes relative humidity, vertical velocity, and divergence was used to describe the atmospheric condition during the life time of Pabuk tropical cyclone. Wavewatch-III data was used to describe the condition of sea waves on the Riau Islands region. The results showed that Pabuk tropical cyclone had an impact on the growth of convective clouds which it caused the light to moderate rainfall quite evenly in the Riau Islands region. Besides, it was impact to the potential of high waves reached 4.5 meters on the northern of Anambas Sea and 7.0 meters on the north-eastern of Natuna Sea.Key words: Tropical cyclone, satellite imagery, wave height Abstrak Siklon tropis merupakan sistem tekanan rendah berskala sinoptik yang berdampak secara langsung maupun tidak langsung terhadap wilayah yang dilalui. Pada tanggal 1-6 Januari 2019, siklon tropis Pabuk muncul di wilayah Laut Cina Selatan dengan pergerakan ke arah barat dan kecepatan angin maksimumnya mencapai 64 knots. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengkaji dampak yang ditimbulkan oleh siklon tropis Pabuk terhadap kondisi atmosfer dan gelombang laut di wilayah Kepulauan Riau. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis indeks konvektif dari data citra satelit Himawari-8 kanal IR1 dan analisis sebaran hujan menggunakan data pengamatan curah hujan dari beberapa stasiun meteorologi yang ada di Kepulauan Riau. Data reanalisis European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) berupa kelembaban udara, vertical velocity, dan divergensi diolah untuk menggambarkan kondisi atmosfer pada masa hidup siklon tropis Pabuk. Data gelombang Wavewatch-III digunakan untuk menggambarkan kondisi gelombang laut di sekitar wilayah Kepulauan Riau. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aktifnya siklon tropis Pabuk berdampak terhadap pertumbuhan awan konvektif yang menimbulkan hujan ringan hingga sedang yang cukup merata di wilayah Kepulauan Riau. Selain itu, berdampak juga pada potensi terjadinya gelombang tinggi mencapai 4,5 meter di sebelah utara Perairan Anambas dan 7,0 meter di sebelah timur laut Perairan Natuna.Kata Kunci: Siklon tropis, citra satelit, tinggi gelombang

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainbands to Ice-Phase Microphysics

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (8) ◽  
pp. 2473-2493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charmaine N. Franklin ◽  
Greg J. Holland ◽  
Peter T. May
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Mean Size ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
Rain Rates ◽  
Ice Phase

Abstract A high-resolution tropical cyclone model with explicit cloud microphysics has been used to investigate the dynamics and energetics of tropical cyclone rainbands. As a first step, the model rainbands have been qualitatively compared with observed rainband characteristics. The model-generated rainbands show many of the mesoscale and convective-scale features of observed tropical cyclone rainbands. Sensitivity studies of numerically simulated tropical cyclone convection to ice-phase microphysical parameters showed that the model was most sensitive to changes in the graupel fall speed parameters. Increasing the fall speeds saw graupel being confined to the convective regions and producing higher rain rates in the inner core of the storm. A greater region of stratiform precipitation was produced when the efficiency for the collection of snow and cloud ice by graupel was reduced and when the mean size of graupel was reduced. Both of these simulations resulted in a higher concentration of snow being transported into the stratiform region. Although the precipitation structure changed across the simulations, the surface rainfall rate and the fundamental dynamical variables showed little sensitivity to the parameter variations.

scholarly journals Impacts of tropical cyclones on the thermodynamic conditions in the tropical tropopause layer observed by A-Train satellites

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 15493-15518
Author(s):  
Jing Feng ◽  
Yi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the transition layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere. Tropical cyclones may impact the TTL by perturbing the vertical distributions of cloud, temperature, and water vapor. This study combines several A-Train instruments, including radar from CloudSat, lidar from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite, to detect signatures of cyclone impacts on the distribution patterns of cloud, water vapor, temperature, and radiation by compositing these thermodynamic fields relative to the cyclone center location. Based on the CloudSat 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR product, this study finds that tropical cyclone events considerably increase the occurrence frequencies of TTL clouds, in the form of cirrus clouds above a clear troposphere. The amount of TTL cloud ice, however, is found to be mostly contributed by overshooting deep convection that penetrates the base of the TTL at 16 km. To overcome the lack of temperature and water vapor products in cloudy conditions, this study implements a synergistic method that retrieves temperature, water vapor, ice water content, and effective radius simultaneously by incorporating observations from AIRS, CloudSat, and CALIPSO. Using the synergistic method, we find a vertically oscillating pattern of temperature anomalies above tropical cyclones, with warming beneath the cloud top (around 16 km) and cooling above. Based on water vapor profiles retrieved by the synergistic method, we find that the layer integrated water vapor (LIWV) above 16 km is higher above tropical cyclones, especially above overshooting deep convective clouds, compared to climatological values. Moreover, we find that the longwave and net radiative cooling effect of clouds prevails within 1000 km of tropical cyclone centers. The radiative heating effects of clouds from the CloudSat 2B-FLXHR-LIDAR product are well differentiated by the collocated brightness temperature of an infrared window channel from the collocated AIRS L1B product. By performing instantaneous radiative heating rate calculations, we further find that TTL hydration is usually associated with radiative cooling of the TTL, which inhibits the diabatic ascent of moist air across isentropic surfaces to the stratosphere. Therefore, the radiative balance of the TTL under the impact of the cyclone does not favor the maintenance of moist anomalies in the TTL or transporting water vertically to the stratosphere.

Balanced Response of an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone to Periodic Diurnal Heating

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (10) ◽  
pp. 3325-3337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika L. Navarro ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim ◽  
Hugh E. Willoughby
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Periodic Heating ◽  
Dynamical Mechanism ◽  
Axisymmetric Solution ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Comparison Of The Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A modified version of the Sawyer–Eliassen equation is applied to determine the impact of periodic diurnal heating on a balanced vortex. The TC diurnal cycle is a coherent signal that arises in the cirrus canopy. However, despite thorough documentation in the literature, the dynamical mechanism remains unknown. Recent work demonstrates that periodic radiative heating in the TC outflow layer is linked with an anomalous upper-level circulation; this heating is also associated with a cycle of latent heating in the lower troposphere that corresponds to a cycle in storm intensity. Using a method that is analogous to the Sawyer–Eliassen equation, but for solutions having the same time scale as time-periodic forcing, these distributions are analyzed to determine the effect of periodic diurnal heating on an axisymmetric vortex. Results for periodic heating in the lower troposphere show an overturning circulation that resembles the Sawyer–Eliassen solution. The model simulates positive perturbations in the azimuthal wind field of 2.5 m s−1 near the radius of maximum wind. Periodic heating near the top of the vortex produces a local overturning response in the region of heating and an inertia–buoyancy wave response in the storm environment. Comparison of the results from the modified Sawyer–Eliassen equation to those of an idealized axisymmetric solution for both heating distributions shows similarities in the structure of the perturbation wind fields, suggesting that the axisymmetric TC diurnal cycle is primarily a balanced response driven by periodic heating.

A Warm-Bin–Cold-Bulk Hybrid Cloud Microphysical Model*

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1474-1497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryo Onishi ◽  
Keiko Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Solid Particles ◽  
Hybrid Cloud ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
Ice Phase

Abstract This study describes a newly developed bin–bulk hybrid cloud microphysical model named MSSG-Bin, which has been implemented in the Multi-Scale Simulator for the Geoenvironment (MSSG). In the hybrid approach, a spectral bin scheme is used for liquid droplets, while a bulk scheme is used for solid particles. That is, the expensive but more reliable spectral bin scheme treats the relatively well-understood physics of the liquid phase, and the computationally efficient but less robust bulk scheme is used to treat the poorly understood physics of the ice phase. In the bulk part, the prognostic variables are the mixing ratios of cloud ice, snow, and graupel and the number density of cloud ice particles. The bulk component is consistent with MSSG-Bulk, which is a conventional bulk model implemented in MSSG. One-dimensional kinetic simulations and three-dimensional cloud simulations have confirmed the reliability of MSSG-Bin for warm clouds, free from the approximations made in bulk parameterizations, and its applicability to cold clouds, without the significant additional costs required for a bin treatment of the ice phase. Compared with MSSG-Bulk, MSSG-Bin with 33 bins requires 8.3 times more floating-point operations for a one-dimensional shallow convection case, and 4.9 times more for a three-dimensional shallow convection case. Present results have shown the feasibility of using this model for a 25-m-resolution simulation of shallow cumulus on a 512 × 512 × 200 grid.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Verification from Three Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Configurations

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 1801-1815
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Halperin ◽  
Andrew B. Penny ◽  
Robert E. Hart
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
False Alarm ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

AbstractOperational forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has improved in recent years but still can be a challenge. Output from global numerical models continues to serve as a primary source of forecast guidance. Bulk verification statistics (e.g., critical success index) of TC genesis forecasts indicate that, overall, global models are increasingly able to predict TC genesis. However, as global model configurations are updated, TC genesis verification statistics will change. This study compares operational and retrospective forecasts from three configurations of NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to quantify the impact of model upgrades on TC genesis forecasts. First, bulk verification statistics from a homogeneous sample of model initialization cycles during the period 2013–14 are compared. Then, composites of select output fields are analyzed in an attempt to identify any key differences between hit and false alarm events. Bulk statistics indicate that TC genesis forecast performance decreased with the implementation of the 2015 version of the GFS, but then modestly recovered with the 2016 version of the model. In addition, the composite analysis suggests that false alarm forecasts in the 2015 version of the GFS may have been the result of inaccurately forecasting the location and/or strength of upper-level troughs poleward of the TC. There is also evidence of convective feedbacks occurring, such as ridging above the low-level circulation and upper-level convective outflow that were too strong, in this same set of false alarm forecasts. Overall, analyzing retrospective forecasts can assist forecasters in determining the strengths and weaknesses associated with a new configuration of a global model with respect to TC genesis.

A Quantitative Analysis of the Enhanced-V Feature in Relation to Severe Weather

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 853-872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason C. Brunner ◽  
Steven A. Ackerman ◽  
A. Scott Bachmeier ◽  
Robert M. Rabin
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Low Earth Orbit ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Quantitative Parameters ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Early enhanced-V studies used 8-km ground-sampled distance and 30-min temporal-sampling Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) infrared (IR) imagery. In contrast, the ground-sampled distance of current satellite imagery is 1 km for low earth orbit (LEO) satellite IR imagery. This improved spatial resolution is used to detect and investigate quantitative parameters of the enhanced-V feature. One of the goals of this study is to use the 1-km-resolution LEO data to help understand the impact of higher-resolution GOES data (GOES-R) when it becomes available. A second goal is to use the LEO data available now to provide better severe storm information than GOES when it is available. This study investigates the enhanced-V feature observed with 1-km-resolution satellite imagery as an aid for severe weather warning forecasters by comparing with McCann’s enhanced-V study. Therefore, verification statistics such as the probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and critical success index were calculated. Additionally, the importance of upper-level winds to severe weather occurrence will be compared with that of the quantitative parameters of the enhanced-V feature. The main goal is to provide a basis for the development of an automated detection algorithm for enhanced-V features from the results in this study. Another goal is to examine daytime versus nighttime satellite overpass distributions with the enhanced-V feature.

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