Toward a Unified Theory of Causality

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 412-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Mahoney
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Research ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Unified Theory ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
The Face ◽  
Research Analysts ◽  
Causal Language ◽  
Partial Effects ◽  
Oriented Research

In comparative research, analysts conceptualize causation in contrasting ways when they pursue explanation in particular cases (case-oriented research) versus large populations (population-oriented research). With case-oriented research, they understand causation in terms of necessary, sufficient, INUS, and SUIN causes. With population-oriented research, by contrast, they understand causation as mean causal effects. This article explores whether it is possible to translate the kind of causal language that is used in case-oriented research into the kind of causal language that is used in population-oriented research (and vice versa). The article suggests that such translation is possible, because certain types of INUS causes manifest themselves as variables that exhibit partial effects when studied in population-oriented research. The article concludes that the conception of causation adopted in case-oriented research is appropriate for the population level, whereas the conception of causation used in population-oriented research is valuable for making predictions in the face of uncertainty.

Are voters too afraid to tackle corruption? Survey and experimental evidence from Mexico

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Omar García-Ponce ◽  
Thomas Zeitzoff ◽  
Leonard Wantchekon
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Willingness To Accept ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Mexican Drug War ◽  
The Face ◽  
Victims Of Crime ◽  
Nationally Representative

Abstract Are individuals in violent contexts reluctant to tackle corruption for fear of future violence? Or does violence mobilize them to fight corruption? We investigate these questions looking at the effects of fear and violence stemming from the Mexican Drug War on attitudes toward corruption. We conducted two surveys before the 2012 Mexican presidential election. First, as part of a nationally representative survey, we find a positive correlation between fear of violence and willingness to accept corruption in exchange for lower levels of violence. To disentangle causal effects, we conducted a follow-up survey experiment in Greater Mexico City where we manipulated fear over the Drug War. We find that individuals within this context are not easily scared. Those who received a common fear-inducing manipulation do not report higher levels of fear and are less willing to tolerate corruption. Conversely, we find strong evidence that individuals who have been victims of crime are more likely to report both higher levels of fear and willingness to accept corruption if it lowers violence. Our findings suggest that voters are more strategic and resilient in the face of violence than many extant theories of political behavior suggest.

scholarly journals Healthy ageing, resilience and wellbeing

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 579-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. D. Cosco ◽  
K. Howse ◽  
C. Brayne
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Healthy Ageing ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Environmental Resources ◽  
Great Achievement ◽  
Health Concept ◽  
Ageing Model ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level

The extension of life does not appear to be slowing, representing a great achievement for mankind as well as a challenge for ageing populations. As we move towards an increasingly older population we will need to find novel ways for individuals to make the best of the challenges they face, as the likelihood of encountering some form of adversity increases with age. Resilience theories share a common idea that individuals who manage to navigate adversity and maintain high levels of functioning demonstrate resilience. Traditional models of healthy ageing suggest that having a high level of functioning across a number of domains is a requirement. The addition of adversity to the healthy ageing model via resilience makes this concept much more accessible and more amenable to the ageing population. Through asset-based approaches, such as the invoking of individual, social and environmental resources, it is hoped that greater resilience can be fostered at a population level. Interventions aimed at fostering greater resilience may take many forms; however, there is great potential to increase social and environmental resources through public policy interventions. The wellbeing of the individual must be the focus of these efforts; quality of life is an integral component to the enjoyment of additional years and should not be overlooked. Therefore, it will become increasingly important to use resilience as a public health concept and to intervene through policy to foster greater resilience by increasing resources available to older people. Fostering wellbeing in the face of increasing adversity has significant implications for ageing individuals and society as a whole.

scholarly journals You aren't what you eat, you become what you eat

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R Stephens ◽  
Jonathan F Easton ◽  
Heriberto Roman Sicilia
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
Energy Intake ◽  
Energy Gap ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Energy Imbalance ◽  
Obesity Epidemic ◽  
Daily Energy ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
Energy Excess

Obesity (and the consequent obesity epidemic) is a complex, adaptive process, taking place over a time span of many years. Energy intake is recognized as a potentially important driver of obesity, especially in the context of an identifiable energy imbalance which, it is surmised, must lead to weight gain. Similarly, energy expenditure must play an important role. However, both show an enormous degree of individual variation. Therefore, measuring them is an exceedingly difficult task, especially in the context of large populations and long time periods. It has been argued that population-level observed weight gain can be traced back to very small daily energy imbalances while, at the same time, positing that a much larger maintenance energy gap is responsible for maintaining the energy requirements of the increased weight population. In this paper we examine the relation between BMI and energy intake as functions of age. The convexity of the BMI curves as a function of age and gender demonstrate the enhanced obesity risk apparent in young adults and women, and imply that no settling points exist at the population level. Consistent with other studies, overall weight increases are consistent with a very small daily energy imbalance, about 7 cal. Consumption as a function of age shows a small, steady, linear decrease of about 8 cal per year, and can be associated with a maximal energy excess/deficit of about 250cal for the youngest and oldest age groups. By examining weight differences between age groups as a function of age, we argue that this excess/deficit is an important motor for the observed weight differences, and argue that the apparent energy imbalance of 250 cal, due to excess consumption, leads to an effective imbalance of only 7 cal due to the existence of various physiological and behavioral mechanisms that enhance weight homeostasis and effectively reduce the energy excess from 250 cal to 7 cal. We discuss several possibilities for such mechanisms.

scholarly journals Changes in Urologic Operative Practice at the Beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Large, National Cohort

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Lewicki ◽  
Camilo Arenas-Gallo ◽  
Spyridon P. Basourakos ◽  
Nahid Punjani ◽  
Siv Venkat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Elective Surgery ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Reference Region ◽  
Hospital Level ◽  
Urologic Oncology ◽  
Average Change ◽  
The Face ◽  
National Cohort ◽  
Using Data

ObjectiveTo analyze population-level changes in operative practice since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic to contextualize observations made by individual practices and optimize future responses.Materials and MethodsThis US retrospective analysis used the Premier Perspectives Database. We investigated changes in operative volume through March 2020. Baseline operative volume for urologic surgery was calculated using data from the preceding 12 months and compared on a total and by procedure basis. Multivariable linear regression was used to identify hospital-level predictors of change in response to the pandemic.ResultsAt baseline, we captured 23,788 urologic procedural encounters per month as compared with 19,071 during March 2020– a 19.9% decrease. Urologic oncology-related cases were relatively preserved as compared to others (average change in March 2020: +1.1% versus -32.2%). Northeastern (β = -5.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -10.2 to -1.18, p = 0.013) and Midwestern hospitals (β = -4.17, 95% CI: -7.89 to -0.45, p = 0.027; both with South as reference region), and those with an increasing percentage of patients insured by Medicaid (β= -0.17 per percentage point, 95% CI: -0.33 to -0.01, p = 0.04) experienced a significantly larger decrease in volume.ConclusionsThere was a 20% decline in urologic operative volume in March 2020, compared with baseline, that preferentially affected hospitals serving Medicaid patients, and those in Northeast and Midwest. In the face of varying mandates on elective surgery, widespread declines in operative volume may also represent hesitancy on behalf of patients to interface with healthcare during the pandemic.

scholarly journals Representational drift in the mouse visual cortex

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Deitch ◽  
Alon Rubin ◽  
Yaniv Ziv
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Activity ◽  
Cortical Areas ◽  
Electrophysiological Recordings ◽  
The Face ◽  
Visual Cortical ◽  
Mouse Visual Cortex ◽  
Over Time

AbstractNeuronal representations in the hippocampus and related structures gradually change over time despite no changes in the environment or behavior. The extent to which such ‘representational drift’ occurs in sensory cortical areas and whether the hierarchy of information flow across areas affects neural-code stability have remained elusive. Here, we address these questions by analyzing large-scale optical and electrophysiological recordings from six visual cortical areas in behaving mice that were repeatedly presented with the same natural movies. We found representational drift over timescales spanning minutes to days across multiple visual areas. The drift was driven mostly by changes in individual cells’ activity rates, while their tuning changed to a lesser extent. Despite these changes, the structure of relationships between the population activity patterns remained stable and stereotypic, allowing robust maintenance of information over time. Such population-level organization may underlie stable visual perception in the face of continuous changes in neuronal responses.

WHAT DO QUANTILE REGRESSIONS IDENTIFY FOR GENERAL STRUCTURAL FUNCTIONS?

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1102-1116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuya Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
Partial Derivative ◽  
General Class ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Quantile Regressions ◽  
Conditional Quantile ◽  
Mild Conditions ◽  
Structural Functions ◽  
Partial Effects

This paper shows what quantile regressions identify for general structural functions. Under fairly mild conditions, the quantile partial derivative identifies a weighted average of heterogeneous structural partial effects among the subpopulation of individuals at the conditional quantile of interest. This result justifies the use of quantile regressions as means of measuring heterogeneous causal effects for a general class of structural functions with multiple unobservables.

Macroinvertebrates of a beaver-altered boreal stream of Alberta, Canada, with special reference to the fauna on the dams

1993 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 1439-1447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh F. Clifford ◽  
Gillian M. Wiley ◽  
Richard J. Casey
Keyword(s):  
Functional Feeding Groups ◽  
Main Stream ◽  
Beaver Ponds ◽  
Boreal Streams ◽  
Beaver Dam ◽  
Debris Dams ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
The Face ◽  
Slow Moving ◽  
Beaver Dams

There were different macroinvertebrate assemblages on the face of and in beaver dams compared with beaver ponds and main stream sites. The beaver dam featured a large proportion of simuliid larvae compared with the main stream sites of this stream and with areas of other studies of beaver-altered streams. The fauna of the dams was typical of fast-flowing habitats, whereas animals of the main stream sites (including the beaver ponds) were more characteristic of slow-flowing or lentic habitats. Cluster analysis separated the dam and main stream sites for each sampling date and year of our study based on the composition of the macroinvertebrates. Although the invertebrate assemblages of the dams differed from those of the main stream sites, both habitats included similar functional feeding groups, except for a shredder found only at the dams. There are similarities between the beaver dam fauna and the faunas of debris dams, woody snags, and lake outlets. Beaver dams are important in supporting large populations of simuliids and generally in maintaining a lotic fauna in slow-moving, low-gradient boreal streams.

scholarly journals COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations averted by rapid vaccination rollout in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Moghadas ◽  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Meagan C Fitzpatrick ◽  
Affan Shoukat ◽  
Abhishek Pandey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Alpha Variant

Importance: Randomized clinical trials have shown that the COVID-19 vaccines currently approved in the US are highly efficacious. However, more evidence is needed to understand the population-level impact of the US vaccination rollout in the face of the changing landscape of COVID-19 pandemic in the US, including variants with higher transmissibility and immune escape. Objective: To quantify the population-level impact of the US vaccination campaign in averting cases, hospitalizations and deaths from December 12, 2020 to June 28, 2021. Design: Age-stratified agent-based model which included transmission dynamics of the Alpha, Gamma and Delta variants in addition to the original Wuhan-1 variant. Setting: Our model was calibrated to COVID-19 outbreak and vaccine rollout in the US. Model predictions were made at the country level. Participants: Simulated age-stratified population representing US demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted by vaccination against COVID-19 in the US, compared to the counterfactuals of no vaccination and vaccination administered at half the actual pace. Results: The swift vaccine rollout in the US curbed a potential resurgence of cases in April 2021, which would have been otherwise fuelled by the Alpha variant. Compared to the scenario without vaccines, we estimated that the actual vaccination program averted more than 26 million cases, 1.2 million hospitalizations and saved 279,000 lives. A vaccination campaign with half the actual rollout rate would have led to an additional 460,000 hospitalizations and 121,000 deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US has had an extraordinary impact on reducing disease burden despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. These findings highlight that the pace of vaccination was essential for mitigating COVID-19 in the US, and underscore the urgent need to close the vaccine coverage gaps in communities across the country.

scholarly journals CloneSifter: enrichment of rare clones from heterogeneous cell populations

BMC Biology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Feldman ◽  
FuNien Tsai ◽  
Anthony J. Garrity ◽  
Ryan O’Rourke ◽  
Lisa Brenan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Molecular Mechanisms ◽  
Cancer Metastasis ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Fitness Assessment ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
Organismal Development ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background Many biological processes, such as cancer metastasis, organismal development, and acquisition of resistance to cytotoxic therapy, rely on the emergence of rare sub-clones from a larger population. Understanding how the genetic and epigenetic features of diverse clones affect clonal fitness provides insight into molecular mechanisms underlying selective processes. While large-scale barcoding with NGS readout has facilitated cellular fitness assessment at the population level, this approach does not support characterization of clones prior to selection. Single-cell genomics methods provide high biological resolution, but are challenging to scale across large populations to probe rare clones and are destructive, limiting further functional analysis of important clones. Results Here, we develop CloneSifter, a methodology for tracking and enriching rare clones throughout their response to selection. CloneSifter utilizes a CRISPR sgRNA-barcode library that facilitates the isolation of viable cells from specific clones within the barcoded population using a sequence-specific retrieval reporter. We demonstrate that CloneSifter can measure clonal fitness of cancer cell models in vitro and retrieve targeted clones at abundance as low as 1 in 1883 in a heterogeneous cell population. Conclusions CloneSifter provides a means to track and access specific and rare clones of interest across dynamic changes in population structure to comprehensively explore the basis of these changes.

Alternative to Partition: Muslim Politics Between the Wars

1981 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayesha Jalal ◽  
Anil Seal
Keyword(s):  
Mob Violence ◽  
Nineteen Twenties ◽  
British Raj ◽  
Main Emphasis ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
The Face ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Muslim Politics ◽  
Organized Resistance ◽  
United Provinces

When the British came to power in India, it was certainly not in the face of the organized resistance of Islam. Yet the British Raj came to its end among political and social convulsions in which Hindus and Muslims cut each other's throats and large populations were shunted across the new frontiers of a sub-continent, now divided into two nations on the basis of religion. Events of such magnitude have encouraged historians to seek explanations of matching significance which may account for the growth of Muslim separatism. This article is concerned with the period of the nineteen-twenties and -thirties, before the onset of the end game when the communal quarrel burst out in deadly earnest. Explicit rival-ries between the communities tended to exist at two main levels, the level of organized politics at the top where Hindu and Muslim elites were rivals for influence with government and eventually for the control of government itself, and the level of mob violence in the streets. This article is concerned with organized politics at the top, although it does not deny the existence and importance of tensions at the base. Its main emphasis will be upon the provincial stage, in particular the Muslim majority province of the Punjab. In the period before 1919 the development of Muslim politics suggested that a specifically Muslim separatism orchestrated by the United Provinces had emerged upon the all-India stage. But the coming of the reforms reversed the situation of the preceding decades, and there was less incentive for Muslim politicians in the United Provinces to claim to be the spokesmen of Muslims in the nation.

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