The Economic Origins of Authoritarian Values: Evidence From Local Trade Shocks in the United Kingdom

What explains the backlash against the liberal international order? Are its causes economic or cultural? We argue that while cultural values are central to understanding the backlash, those values are, in part, endogenous and shaped by long-run economic change. Using an original survey of the British population, we show that individuals living in regions where the local labor market was more substantially affected by imports from China have significantly more authoritarian values and that this relationship is driven by the effect of economic change on authoritarian aggression. This result is consistent with a frustration-aggression mechanism by which large economic shocks hinder individuals’ expected attainment of their goals. This study provides a theoretical mechanism that helps to account for the opinions and behaviors of Leave voters in the 2016 UK referendum who in seeking the authoritarian values of order and conformity desired to reduce immigration and “take back control” of policymaking.

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Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment

International Finance Discussion Paper ◽

10.17016/ifdp.2021.1310 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 (1310) ◽

pp. 1-95

Author(s):

Rafael Dix-Carneiro ◽

◽

João Paulo Pessoa ◽

Ricardo Reyes-Heroles ◽

Sharon Traiberman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Global Economy ◽

Labor Reallocation ◽

Trade Shocks ◽

Market Effects ◽

Sector Model ◽

Trade Imbalances ◽

Long Run ◽

The Us ◽

Saving Decisions

We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) Consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances; (b) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade costs, and inter-temporal preferences (savings gluts). We find that modeling trade imbalances changes both qualitatively and quantitatively the short- and long-run implications of globalization shocks for labor reallocation and unemployment dynamics. In a series of empirical applications, we study the labor market effects of shocks accrued to the global economy, their implications for the gains from trade, and we revisit the "China Shock" through the lens of our model. We show that the US enjoys a 2.2 percent gain in response to globalization shocks. These gains would have been 73 percent larger in the absence of the global savings glut, but they would have been 40 percent smaller in a balanced-trade world.

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The Russian Labor Market: Paradoxes of Post-crisis Performance

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2014-7-66-92 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 66-92 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

R. Kapeliushnikov ◽

A. Oshchepkov

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Labor Force Participation ◽

Economic Shocks ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Long Run ◽

Economic Stagnation ◽

Short Run ◽

Basic Characteristics ◽

Structural Shifts

In the end of 2012 the Russian economy entered a period of permanently declining growth rates. The paper provides a thorough analysis of the labor market performance under these new conditions. We explain why despite economic stagnation its basic characteristics - labor force participation, employment, unemployment, hirings and separations, vacancies - remained at very favorable levels. Our analysis also indicates that though with a certain lag the labor market has started to react to negative economic shocks. We conclude that now effects of long-run structural shifts intervene with effects of short-run economic fluctuations and this will seriously affect the dynamics of the Russian labor market in the medium- and long-term perspectives.

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İngiltere’den Türkiye’ye ‘Düzensiz’ Göçmen Dövizi Gönderme Davranışının Nedenleri Üzerine Nitel Bir İnceleme

GÖÇ DERGİSİ ◽

10.33182/gd.v6i2.665 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 173-190

Author(s):

Fethiye Tilbe

Keyword(s):

Cultural Values ◽

Host Country ◽

Regulatory Framework ◽

Face To Face ◽

Migrant Communities ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Main Determinants ◽

Money Transfers ◽

The Uk ◽

Migrant Groups

Bu makale, göçmen dövizi akımlarında “düzensizlik” olarak ifade ettiğimiz, Türkiye’ye resmi kanallar dışında gönderilen enformel göçmen dövizlerini, Birleşik Krallık’ta (özellikle Londra’da) yaşayan Türkiye kökenli göçmenler açısından incelemektedir. Her göçmen grubu, gerek ev sahibi ülkedeki düzenleyici çerçeve ve sosyo-ekonomik koşullar, gerek göçmen topluluğunun sosyo-kültürel değerleri tarafından belirlenen biçimde, farklı göçmen dövizi transfer biçimlerine eğilim sergilemektedir. Dolayısıyla farklı ülkelerdeki aynı kökenden göçmen toplulukları, ev sahibi ülkedeki dinamikler nedeniyle göçmen dövizlerinin formel ya da enformel (düzenli ya da düzensiz) gönderiminde farklılaşabilirken, aynı ülkedeki farklı ülke kökenli göçmen grupları da pek çok örüntünün etkisiyle farklı eğilim gösterebilmektedir. Nitel araştırma tasarımı kapsamında 27 göçmen ve 7 anahtar statüdeki katılımcıyla gerçekleştirilen yüz yüze görüşmelere dayalı olan bu çalışma, Birleşik Krallık’tan Türkiye’ye göçmen dövizi gönderimindeki düzensizlik olgusunu, her iki ülkenin sosyal, ekonomik ve kültürel dinamikleriyle ilişkilendirerek incelemeyi ve nedenlerini ortaya çıkarmayı amaç edinmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, göçmenlik statüsü, gönderilen para miktar ve sıklığı ile geleneksel ilişki ağlarına olan güvenin yanında, Birleşik Krallık’taki sosyal yardım ve çalışma biçimine ilişkinin düzenleyici çerçevenin ve göçmenlerin sosyo-ekonomik durumlarının Türkiye’ye enformel göçmen dövizi gönderiminde temel belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHA Qualitative Examination of Determinants of Remittances Sending Behaviour Among Immigrants from Turkey in the UKThis article examines the causes of irregularity in remittances flows from the United Kingdom (UK) to Turkey, from the perspective of migrants from Turkey living in the UK. Each group of migrants prefers different types of remittance sending methods, as determined by the regulatory framework and socio-economic conditions in the host country and the socio-cultural values of the migrant community. Therefore, migrant communities of the same origin in different countries may differ in using formal or informal sending methods of remittances due to the dynamics in the host country. Similarly, migrant groups of different nationalities in the same country may show different tendencies due to the influence of many patterns. Similarly, migrant groups of different nationalities in the same country may show different tendencies due to the influence of many patterns. This study aims to examine the phenomenon of irregularities in sending remittances by associating with the social, economic and cultural dynamics of both countries. For this purpose, face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted with 27 immigrants and 7 key status participants by using qualitative research method. The obtained results reveal that the regulatory framework relating to social assistance and labour market in the UK, immigration status, the frequency and the amount of money sent and confidence in traditional relationship networks is the main determinants of informal money transfers to Turkey.

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Public Opinion, Party Politics, and the Welfare State

10.1093/oso/9780198807971.003.0004 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Johannes Lindvall ◽

David Rueda

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

Welfare State ◽

Party System ◽

Median Voter ◽

Party Politics ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Party Positions ◽

Long Run ◽

The 1960S ◽

The Welfare State

This chapter examines the long-run relationship between public opinion, party politics, and the welfare state. It argues that when large parties receive a clear signal concerning the median voter’s position on the welfare state, vote-seeking motivations dominate and the large parties in the party system converge on the position of the median voter. When the position of the median voter is more difficult to discern, however, policy-seeking motivations dominate, and party positions diverge. This argument implies that the effects of government partisanship on welfare state policy are more ambiguous than generally understood. The countries covered in the chapter are Denmark, France, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom (going back to the 1960s). The number of observations is (necessarily) limited, but the diverse cases illustrate a common electoral dynamic centered around the position of the median voter.

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Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

British Journal of Political Science ◽

10.1017/s0007123421000119 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-19

Author(s):

Lucy Barnes ◽

Timothy Hicks

Keyword(s):

Analogical Reasoning ◽

Public Support ◽

Case Scenario ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Cognitive Problem ◽

Government Deficits ◽

Ex Post ◽

The Government ◽

Original Survey ◽

Household Borrowing

Abstract Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation.

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LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS UNDER TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS: THE ROLE OF SUBSISTENCE CONSUMPTION

Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽

10.1017/s136510052100016x ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-29

Author(s):

Sangyup Choi ◽

Myungkyu Shim

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Business Cycle ◽

Developing Economies ◽

Structural Var ◽

Market Dynamics ◽

Technology Shocks ◽

Structural Factors ◽

Long Run ◽

Labor Market Dynamics ◽

Short Run

This paper establishes new stylized facts about labor market dynamics in developing economies, which are distinct from those in advanced economies, and then proposes a simple model to explain them. We first show that the response of hours worked and employment to a technology shock—identified by a structural VAR model with either short-run or long-run restrictions—is substantially smaller in developing economies. We then present compelling empirical evidence that several structural factors related to the relevance of subsistence consumption across countries can jointly account for the relative volatility of employment to output and that of consumption to output. We argue that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model augmented with subsistence consumption can explain the several salient features of business cycle fluctuations in developing economies, especially their distinct labor market dynamics under technology shocks.

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Implications of Brexit for Skilled Migration from India to the UK

Foreign Trade Review ◽

10.1177/00157325211012207 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 001573252110122

Author(s):

Rupa Chanda ◽

Neha Vinod Betai

Keyword(s):

Transition Period ◽

The European Union ◽

Jel Codes ◽

Decision To Leave ◽

East European ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Take Back ◽

The Uk ◽

European Economies ◽

The Eu

In June 2016, the United Kingdom took the world by surprise with the results of its referendum on whether to remain in the European Union (EU). With a 52% majority, the country decided to leave the bloc in which it had been a member since 1973. With this outcome began the long process of Brexit negotiations between UK and the EU. The UK officially ceased to be an EU member on 31 January 2020, with a transition period up to the end of 2020. The decision to leave the EU came on the back of rising bitterness among people. Membership in the EU was seen as expensive and not beneficial to the country. One of the major campaigning points of the leave camp was the issue of immigration. Given that free movement of people is an important part of being in the EU, the party argued that leaving the EU would help the country take back control of its borders. Immigration in the UK has been on the rise since the early 2000s. It shot up further with the accession of the eight East European economies into the EU. Figure 1 shows how, leading up to Brexit, immigration from the EU to the UK was constantly increasing. JEL Codes: F00, F30, F22, F23

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Wavelet Co-movement Significance Testing with Respect to Gaussian White Noise Background

ITM Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/itmconf/20181601002 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 16 ◽

pp. 01002

Author(s):

Jitka Poměnková ◽

Eva Klejmová ◽

Tobiáš Malach

Keyword(s):

White Noise ◽

Gaussian White Noise ◽

Real Data ◽

Significance Testing ◽

Noise Background ◽

Advantages And Disadvantages ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

White Noise Background

The paper deals with significance testing of time series co-movement measured via wavelet analysis, namely via the wavelet cross-spectra. This technique is very popular for its better time resolution compare to other techniques. Such approach put in evidence the existence of both long-run and short-run co-movement. In order to have better predictive power it is suitable to support and validate obtained results via some testing approach. We investigate the test of wavelet power cross-spectrum with respect to the Gaussian white noise background with the use of the Bessel function. Our experiment is performed on real data, i.e. seasonally adjusted quarterly data of gross domestic product of the United Kingdom, Korea and G7 countries. To validate the test results we perform Monte Carlo simulation. We describe the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and formulate recommendations for its using.

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