War Deaths Can Increase Support for Incumbents

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Peter John Loewen ◽  
Daniel Rubenson
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
District Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Effects Of War

Abstract War comes with terrible costs both in terms of money and lives. Do voters punish incumbents for these costs? Much of the existing literature on the effects of war deaths on public opinion toward incumbents and their war efforts suggests that the answer is yes. We test this proposition on data from a non-US case: Canada's war in Afghanistan. We estimate models of the effect of local war deaths on incumbent support using individual-level panel data from the 2006, 2008 and 2011 Canadian Election Studies and aggregate district-level data from the 2008 and 2011 general elections. In none of our models do we find support for the conclusion that war deaths decrease support for candidates of the governing party. Instead, we find evidence at both the individual and district levels that support for Conservative party candidates is higher in districts that experienced war deaths.

scholarly journals Popularity equilibrium: Testing a general theory of local campaign effectiveness

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Fieldhouse ◽  
Justin Fisher ◽  
David Cutts
Keyword(s):  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Measuring Campaign ◽  
Local Candidate ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Electoral Performance

Parties and candidates target campaign resources where they are most likely to pay electoral dividends. At the individual level it has been shown that some individuals are more likely to be persuaded by campaign contacts than others. In a parallel tradition of measuring campaign effectiveness at the macro level, previous research has demonstrated that local candidate campaign effort measured is significantly related to electoral performance. However, while there is evidence suggestive of macro level effects, there is little systematic evidence about the district level conditions under which campaign efforts are most productive. Drawing on extensive data across six UK general elections between 1992 and 2015, we advance a theory of local campaign efficacy and test a general model of popularity equilibrium. We demonstrate that there is a curvilinear relationship between the underlying level of party support in an electoral district and the intensity of the district-level campaign – there is a ‘sweet-spot’ for maximizing the returns of campaign effort.

When Marriage Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110243
Author(s):  
Carolina Plescia ◽  
Sylvia Kritzinger
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Responsibility Attribution ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Level Data ◽  
European Election ◽  
Election Studies

Combining individual-level with event-level data across 25 European countries and three sets of European Election Studies, this study examines the effect of conflict between parties in coalition government on electoral accountability and responsibility attribution. We find that conflict increases punishment for poor economic performance precisely because it helps clarify to voters parties’ actions and responsibilities while in office. The results indicate that under conditions of conflict, the punishment is equal for all coalition partners when they share responsibility for poor economic performance. When there is no conflict within a government, the effect of poor economic evaluations on vote choice is rather low, with slightly more punishment targeted to the prime minister’s party. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in coalition governments.

Missing Data in Research on Youth and Family Programs

2021 ◽  
pp. 003329412110268
Author(s):  
Jaime Ballard ◽  
Adeya Richmond ◽  
Suzanne van den Hoogenhof ◽  
Lynne Borden ◽  
Daniel Francis Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Missing Data ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Program Participation ◽  
Multilevel Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Post Test ◽  
The Individual

Background Multilevel data can be missing at the individual level or at a nested level, such as family, classroom, or program site. Increased knowledge of higher-level missing data is necessary to develop evaluation design and statistical methods to address it. Methods Participants included 9,514 individuals participating in 47 youth and family programs nationwide who completed multiple self-report measures before and after program participation. Data were marked as missing or not missing at the item, scale, and wave levels for both individuals and program sites. Results Site-level missing data represented a substantial portion of missing data, ranging from 0–46% of missing data at pre-test and 35–71% of missing data at post-test. Youth were the most likely to be missing data, although site-level data did not differ by the age of participants served. In this dataset youth had the most surveys to complete, so their missing data could be due to survey fatigue. Conclusions Much of the missing data for individuals can be explained by the site not administering those questions or scales. These results suggest a need for statistical methods that account for site-level missing data, and for research design methods to reduce the prevalence of site-level missing data or reduce its impact. Researchers can generate buy-in with sites during the community collaboration stage, assessing problematic items for revision or removal and need for ongoing site support, particularly at post-test. We recommend that researchers conducting multilevel data report the amount and mechanism of missing data at each level.

Waking Up in the Poll Booth

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 901-910
Author(s):  
Robert E. Goodin ◽  
James Mahmud Rice
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Waking Up

Judging from Gallup Polls in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, opinion often changes during an election campaign. Come election day itself, however, opinion often reverts back nearer to where it was before the campaign began. That that happens even in Australia, where voting is compulsory and turnout is near-universal, suggests that differential turnout among those who have and have not been influenced by the campaign is not the whole story. Inspection of individual-level panel data from 1987 and 2005 British General Elections confirms that between 3 and 5 percent of voters switch voting intentions during the campaign, only to switch back toward their original intentions on election day. One explanation, we suggest, is that people become more responsible when stepping into the poll booth: when voting they reflect back on the government's whole time in office, rather than just responding (as when talking to pollsters) to the noise of the past few days' campaigning. Inspection of Gallup Polls for UK snap elections suggests that this effect is even stronger in elections that were in that sense unanticipated.

scholarly journals Cohort Profile: The China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC) Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Zhao ◽  
Feng Hong ◽  
Jianzhong Yin ◽  
Wenge Tang ◽  
Gang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Data Access ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Baseline Survey ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Long Term Storage ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Study Participants

AbstractCohort purposeThe China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC) is a community population-based prospective observational study aiming to address the urgent need for understanding NCD prevalence, risk factors and associated conditions in resource-constrained settings for ethnic minorities in China.Cohort BasicsA total of 99 556 participants aged 30 to 79 years (Tibetan populations include those aged 18 to 30 years) from the Tibetan, Yi, Miao, Bai, Bouyei, and Dong ethnic groups in Southwest China were recruited between May 2018 and September 2019.Follow-up and attritionAll surviving study participants will be invited for re-interviews every 3-5 years with concise questionnaires to review risk exposures and disease incidence. Furthermore, the vital status of study participants will be followed up through linkage with established electronic disease registries annually.Design and MeasuresThe CMEC baseline survey collected data with an electronic questionnaire and face-to-face interviews, medical examinations and clinical laboratory tests. Furthermore, we collected biological specimens, including blood, saliva and stool, for long-term storage. In addition to the individual level data, we also collected regional level data for each investigation site.Collaboration and data accessCollaborations are welcome. Please send specific ideas to corresponding author at: [email protected].

scholarly journals Welsh Government Flying Start Programme Evaluation Using Linked Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Lowe ◽  
Laura McGinn ◽  
Marcos Quintela ◽  
Luke Player ◽  
Karen Tingay
Keyword(s):  
Evidence Base ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Parenting Support ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Part Time ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Families With Children

BackgroundFlying Start (FS) is the Welsh Government’s (WG) flagship Early Years programme for families with children aged less than 4 years of age. Running since 2006, the four entitlements are: Free part-time childcare for 2-3 year olds Enhanced Health Visiting Parenting support Speech, language, and communication support ObjectivesCurrently, while we know which areas in Wales are receiving FS support, individual-level data on which child received what entitlements is not available. Area-level outcomes can be used as proxy indicators but the individual impact of receiving FS support cannot be examined.The project aims to evaluate FS by linking the FS cohort to a range of outcomes including health, education and social care. MethodsA Dataflow Development Project (DDP) has been launched to install SAIL (Secure Anonymised Information Linkage) appliances into 6 pilot Local Authorities in Wales which will test acquiring and linking the individual level FS data from pilot Local Authorities with other datasets in SAIL. FindingsThe project will report some emerging findings from the analysis of pilot data. ImplicationsThere is a growing interest in using linked administrative data to evaluate government initiatives, and mounting enthusiasm in Local Government. If successful, this model is likely to be adopted by related WG programmes; improving the evidence base, facilitating effective evaluation, and adding to the data available for re-use in Wales.

Social Trust and Public Opinion about Territorial Disputes: Evidence from a Survey in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-633
Author(s):  
Florian Justwan ◽  
Sarah Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Character Trait ◽  
Territorial Disputes ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
Arunachal Pradesh ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
South Tibet

Abstract This article explores the sources of public opinion about territorial disputes. Specifically, it investigates the impact of one particular character trait—social trust—on the policy preferences of Indian citizens in the context of the Sino-Indian dispute over Arunachal Pradesh/South Tibet. We argue that social trust shapes how a citizen thinks about a given territorial dispute and influences which policy options this individual favors in response to another country's claim. Our empirical analysis is based on original survey data collected in the National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT) in January/February 2017. In line with our theoretical expectations, we find that high-trust individuals are: (1) more likely to regard China's claim to Arunachal Pradesh/South Tibet as legitimate; (2) more willing to favor the onset of conflict management; and (3) more supportive of concessions. This article therefore adds to a growing literature examining the individual-level determinants of public opinion in territorial disputes.

Agricultural entrepreneurship orientation: is academic training a missing link?

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (7/8) ◽  
pp. 856-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soodeh Mohammadinezhad ◽  
Maryam Sharifzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Configuration Theory ◽  
University Courses ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Academic Courses ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Agricultural Entrepreneurship ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of academic courses on agricultural entrepreneurship. Design/methodology/approach Modified global entrepreneurship and development index (GEDI) was used to determine entrepreneurial dimensions among 19 graduated students of agricultural colleges resided in Iran. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process was applied to understand agricultural graduates’ preferences on effectiveness of university courses (core, free elective and restricted elective). Findings Results suggested the importance of professional restricted elective courses to provide students with necessary skills. These courses were successful in providing a context for entrepreneurial profile. Research limitations/implications Innate talent or acquired skills were always the place of debate on entrepreneurial development. The paper builds on the premise that entrepreneurs are made through education and continuing reconstruction of experience, further research is required as the field develops in experience and complexity. Practical implications The paper provides strategies to effectively modify practical route in higher education to enhance entrepreneurial orientation among students. Originality/value The paper is innovative at a conceptual level in modifying GEDI elements in individual-level variables based on GEDI configuration theory. This approach is particularly useful in addressing the bottleneck problems of entrepreneurship profile and focusses on the information interpreted at weights of the individual-level data.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

Area-level relative deprivation and alcohol use in Denmark: Is there a relationship?

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 428-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Bloomfield ◽  
Gabriele Berg-Beckhoff ◽  
Abdu Kedir Seid ◽  
Christiane Stock
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Use ◽  
Relative Deprivation ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Area Deprivation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Housing Component ◽  
Disorder Identification ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Aims: Greater area-level relative deprivation has been related to poorer health behaviours, but studies specifically on alcohol use and abuse have been equivocal. The main purpose of the present study was to investigate how area-level relative deprivation in Denmark relates to alcohol use and misuse in the country. Methods: As individual-level data, we used the national alcohol and drug survey of 2011 ( n= 5133). Data were procured from Statistics Denmark to construct an index of relative deprivation at the parish level ( n=2119). The deprivation index has two components, which were divided into quintiles. Multilevel linear and logistic regressions analysed the influence of area deprivation on mean alcohol use and hazardous drinking, as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Results: Men who lived in parishes designated as ‘very deprived’ on the socioeconomic component were more likely to consume less alcohol; women who lived in parishes designated as ‘deprived’ on the housing component were less likely to drink hazardously. But at the individual level, education was positively related to mean alcohol consumption, and higher individual income was positively related to mean consumption for women. Higher-educated men were more likely to drink hazardously. Conclusions: Area-level measures of relative deprivation were not strongly related to alcohol use, yet in the same models individual-level socioeconomic variables had a more noticeable influence. This suggests that in a stronger welfare state, the impact of area-level relative deprivation may not be as great. Further work is needed to develop more sensitive measures of relative deprivation.

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