scholarly journals Power-sharing, conflict resolution, and the logic of pre-emptive defection

2020 ◽  
pp. 002234332092469
Author(s):  
Chelsea Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Electoral Defeat ◽  
Commitment Problem ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Cross National

Conclusions about the potential for peace via power-sharing are mixed. For some, power-sharing does little to overcome the commitment problem characterizing a transition from conflict, while others argue that such concessions provide signals of parties’ willingness to incur costs. This article develops and tests a new theory, aiming to shed light on the mechanisms through which power-sharing bargains help to overcome the commitment problem. I argue that government parties tend to hold an electoral and military advantage, which heightens incentives for rebel leaders to defect from a settlement prior to conceding their capacity to use violence. Where settlements provide discrete guarantees that offset the risks of electoral defeat and the co-optation of forces, these incentives for pre-emptive defection should be mitigated. I offer a novel disaggregation of provisional power-sharing subtypes, distinguishing between long-term and short-term arrangements. The analysis rests on an original, cross-national dataset of government-and-rebel dyads to negotiated settlements signed between 1975 and 2015 (N = 168). The logistic regression results clearly indicate that power-sharing settlements stipulating ‘consociational’-style reforms are significantly more likely to resolve conflict between settlement dyads, all else equal. Meanwhile, standard conceptualizations of power-sharing, which include transitional coalitions and troop integration, appear unlikely to secure rebel commitment beyond the transition period, which helps to explain the contradictory findings in existing research.

scholarly journals Predicting Incidence of Long-term Care Insurance Certification in Japan with the Kihon Checklist for Frailty Screening Tool: Analysis of Local Government Survey Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kumiko Ito ◽  
Hisashi Kawai ◽  
Harukazu Tsuruta ◽  
Shuichi Obuchi
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Long Term Care Insurance ◽  
Level 1

Abstract Background: Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance (LTCI) certification in the short term is of increasing importance in Japan. The present study examined whether the Kihon Checklist (KCL) can be used to predict incidence of LTCI certification (care level 1 or higher) in the short term among older Japanese persons.Methods: In 2015, the local government in Tokyo, Japan, distributed the KCL to all individuals older than 65 years who had not been certified as having a disability or who had already been certified as requiring support level 1–2 according to LTCI system. We also collected LTCI certification data within the 3 months after collecting the KCL data. The data of 17785 respondents were analyzed. First, we selected KCL items strongly associated with incidence of LTCI certification, using stepwise forward-selection multiple logistic regression. Second, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses for three conditions (1: Selected KCL items, 2: The main 20 KCL items (nos. 1–20), 3: All 25 KCL items). Third, we estimated specificity and sensitivity for each condition.Results: During a 3-month follow-up, 81 (0.5%) individuals required new LTCI certification. Eight KCL items were selected by multiple logistic regression as predictive of certification. The area under the ROC curve in the three conditions was 0.92–0.93, and specificity and sensitivity for all conditions were greater than 80%.Conclusions: Three KCL conditions predicted short-term incidence of LTCI certification. This suggests that KCL items may be used to screen for the risk of incident LTCI certification.

scholarly journals Learning Long- and Short-Term User Literal-Preference with Multimodal Hierarchical Transformer Network for Personalized Image Caption

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 9571-9578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Yue Ying ◽  
Pan Lu ◽  
Hongyuan Zha
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Natural Extension ◽  
Target Image ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Image Representations ◽  
High Level ◽  
Image Descriptions ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Image Caption

Personalized image caption, a natural extension of the standard image caption task, requires to generate brief image descriptions tailored for users' writing style and traits, and is more practical to meet users' real demands. Only a few recent studies shed light on this crucial task and learn static user representations to capture their long-term literal-preference. However, it is insufficient to achieve satisfactory performance due to the intrinsic existence of not only long-term user literal-preference, but also short-term literal-preference which is associated with users' recent states. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel multimodal hierarchical transformer network (MHTN) for personalized image caption in this paper. It learns short-term user literal-preference based on users' recent captions through a short-term user encoder at the low level. And at the high level, the multimodal encoder integrates target image representations with short-term literal-preference, as well as long-term literal-preference learned from user IDs. These two encoders enjoy the advantages of the powerful transformer networks. Extensive experiments on two real datasets show the effectiveness of considering two types of user literal-preference simultaneously and better performance over the state-of-the-art models.

changing landscapes, human impact on

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Bintliff
Keyword(s):  
Human Impact ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Agricultural Technology ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rural Landscapes ◽  
Natural Factors ◽  
Classical World ◽  
Ancient Society ◽  
Shed Light

The Classical world witnessed many forms of physical landscape change due to long-term and short-term geological and climatological processes. There have also been alterations to the land surface resulting from an interaction between human impact and these natural factors. Cyclical changes in land use, agricultural technology, economy, and politics have continually transformed the rural landscapes of the Mediterranean and the wider Classical world and their mapping, in turn, can shed light on fundamental aspects of ancient society that are not always documented in Classical texts.

Electoral Participation and Republican Moderation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Whiting
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Electoral Institutions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Critical Juncture ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Outright Rejection ◽  
Democratic Elections

This chapter traces how electoral participation contributed to the moderation of republicanism. It argues that liberal democratic elections simply do not allow for revolution. The decision by Irish republicans to participate in elections in 1981 was a critical juncture. The path it chose pushed the movement in an increasingly moderate direction, moving away from parallel states and outright rejection in favour of ambivalent electoral participation. Once this path was chosen republicans became locked-in, resulting in republicans fractionalising their long-term goal into short-term aims, courting voters beyond their core supporters, increasing engagement with ruling institutions, and using the existing system rather than trying to overthrow it. This electoral direction was later reinforced by the power-sharing arrangements which brought republicans into government. Moderation occurred in spite of republicans rejecting the legitimacy of the electoral institutions in which they were now competing. Electoral participation was a rational choice by republicans to pursue their goals through a new means in the hope of avoiding marginalisation.

scholarly journals How Stable Is Political Parties’ Issue Ownership? A Cross-Time, Cross-National Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Bech Seeberg
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Issue Ownership ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Know How ◽  
Comprehensive Data ◽  
National Analysis ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Cross National

Research on issue ownership is accelerating and so is its use in studies of voting and party behaviour. Yet we do not know how stable issue ownership is. Does it describe a solid, persistent association between a party and an issue in the eyes of the electorate, or does it describe a more fluid and fragile issue reputation of a party among the electorate? Theoretical and empirical work suggests both stability and variability in issue ownership. To get closer to an answer, this article presents and analyses unprecedented comprehensive data on issue ownership. The analysis identifies stability rather than change in issue ownership over time and similarity more than difference across countries, and therefore suggests that issue ownership is a general and long-term rather than a local and short-term phenomenon. The implications for how voters perceive parties are important.

Why Conflicts In The Former Soviet Union Are So Difficult To Negotiate And Mediate

1996 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina M. Lebedeva
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Transition

AbstractThe difficulty in using negotiation and mediation to resolve conflicts in the former Soviet Union (FSU) derives from factors coming both from the Soviet and pre-Soviet Russian periods and from the current transition. Traditional reliance on authority and government centralization led to both reliance on and distrust of central authorities, neither of which is conducive to negotiation. In the transition period, rigidity, change, long-term and short-term uncertainty, distrust, and absence of valid spokespeople all contribute to undermine negotiations. Yet, inevitably, more negotiation and mediation will be needed and eventually used.

scholarly journals Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance certification in Japan with the Kihon Checklist for frailty screening tool: analysis of local government survey data

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kumiko Ito ◽  
Hisashi Kawai ◽  
Harukazu Tsuruta ◽  
Shuichi Obuchi
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Long Term Care Insurance ◽  
Level 1

Abstract Background Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance (LTCI) certification in the short term is of increasing importance in Japan. The present study examined whether the Kihon Checklist (KCL) can be used to predict incidence of LTCI certification (care level 1 or higher) in the short term among older Japanese persons. Methods In 2015, the local government in Tokyo, Japan, distributed the KCL to all individuals older than 65 years who had not been certified as having a disability or who had already been certified as requiring support level 1–2 according to LTCI system. We also collected LTCI certification data within the 3 months after collecting the KCL data. The data of 17,785 respondents were analyzed. First, we selected KCL items strongly associated with incidence of LTCI certification, using stepwise forward-selection multiple logistic regression. Second, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses for three conditions (1: Selected KCL items, 2: The main 20 KCL items (nos. 1–20), 3: All 25 KCL items). Third, we estimated specificity and sensitivity for each condition. Results During a 3-month follow-up, 81 (0.5%) individuals required new LTCI certification. Eight KCL items were selected by multiple logistic regression as predictive of certification. The area under the ROC curve in the three conditions was 0.92–0.93, and specificity and sensitivity for all conditions were greater than 80%. Conclusions Three KCL conditions predicted short-term incidence of LTCI certification. This suggests that KCL items may be used to screen for the risk of incident LTCI certification.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Keinginan Pasangan Usia Subur (Pus) dalam Penggunaan Metode Kontrasepsi Jangka Panjang

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Sumartini Sumartini ◽  
Diah Indriani
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Family Support ◽  
Contraceptive Method ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Family

One of the most eff ective eff ort in the family planning program was to control fertilitas and press the population growth rate was used contraception. In the area of Puskesmas Pacar Keling Surabaya interest of acceptor which used short term contraceptive method still high than long term contraceptive method. This research used analytical observational study with case control methods. The population is all woman reproductive age couples aged 15-49 years old in the area of Puskesmas Pacar Keling Surabaya. Sampling technique used two stage random sampling and got 90 respondent. The variables were age, knowledge, side eff ects, desire to have a child again, husband and family support. Data were analyzed with multiple logistic regression with al level of signifi cance value α= 0,05. The result of logistic regression analysis signifi cant variables were age (p= 0,002), side eff ects (p= 0,005), desire to have a child again (p= 0,028), husband and family support (p= 0,008). Conclusion of research is that age, side effects, desire to have more children, husband and family support infl uencing reproductive age couples using long term contraceptive methods. This research suggest health workers provide Counselling and information about Family Planning to reproductive age couples specially they were 20-30 years old about explanation of the use of long term contraception method.

scholarly journals Features of Marketer-Generated Content Tweets For Electronic Word of Mouth in Banking Context

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natnaree Weerawatnodom ◽  
Nattapat Watanapa ◽  
Bunthit Watanapa
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Association Rule ◽  
Word Of Mouth ◽  
Apriori Algorithm ◽  
Electronic Word Of Mouth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Key Features ◽  
Twitter Mining

This study aims to identify the features of Market-Generated Content (MGC) tweets that are posted with a purpose of initiating electronic word of mouth (known as eWOM). A successful tweet is a tweet that earns active participation from the customers, e.g. getting Retweeted (RT) or Favorited (FAV). The phenomenon of eWOM effectively helps to propagate marketing agendas in both short-term marketing campaigns and long-term brand awareness. In the analysis process, logistic regression and Association rule methods were applied to mine the significant features on the MGC posts which were collected from four selected banks in Thailand during a specific period of time. For results, logistic regression indicated a set of features that causes a substantial number of RT and FAV. Additionally, the Apriori algorithm of the Association rule further specified two key features for effective RT and FAV, and it also suggested how to combine other features with those two key features to enhance the gain of RT and FAV.Keywords: electronic Word of Mouth, eWOM, Marketer-Generated Content, MGC, Logistic regression, Association rule, Social media, Twitter mining.

Thermal Treatment Effects on a PLLA Bioresorbable Stent

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tre Welch ◽  
Robert C. Eberhart ◽  
Cheng-Jen Chuong
Keyword(s):  
Vascular Endothelium ◽  
Vulnerable Plaque ◽  
Arterial Wall ◽  
Vascular Wall ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Endothelial Lining ◽  
Endothelial Surface ◽  
Bioresorbable Stent ◽  
Shed Light

Stent navigation and expansion may injure vascular endothelium, including vulnerable plaque lesions. Balloon expansion and deployment of a stent can lead to injury or the endothelial lining and stretching of the arterial wall [1]. Understanding the traction forces an expanding stent imparts on the vascular wall at the endothelial surface, the underlying plaque lesions and other tissue components during expansion is an important step in improving short term stent-wall mechanics. More importantly, the long term influence of stent-vascular wall mechanical interactions in restenosis remains unknown, and this analysis may shed light on the process.

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