At a Glance …

2015 ◽  
Vol 231 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

Following growth of 3.4 per cent in 2014, the world economy will grow by 3.3 per cent in 2015 and 3.6 per cent in 2016.Growth was weaker than expected in late 2014 and inflation has fallen further below target in almost all developed countries;But a sustained lower oil price, if it does not exacerbate the threat of deflation, should provide a significant boost to growth in countries that are net oil importers and for the global economy.

2015 ◽  
Vol 232 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

Following growth of 3.4 per cent each year in 2012–14, the world economy will grow by 3.2 per cent in 2015 and 3.8 per cent in 2016.Growth has been slightly weaker than expected so far in 2015 and inflation remains well below target in almost all developed countries.But deflation does not appear to be embedded and low oil prices, combined with accommodative monetary policies, should provide a boost to growth in most oil importing countries.


2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.


Author(s):  
Елена Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya ◽  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy

The work is devoted to forecasting the prospects for the development of a systemic economic crisis of the world economy. Forecasting is carried out on the base of N. Kondratyev econometric models of cycles in the world economy and the economies of the largest countries of the modern world. The results obtained allow us to establish that the beginning of Kondratiev’s upward halfwaves relates to the years 1999–2001. The expected duration of the period of the modern Kondratyev cycle is 50–54 years. The results of the study of the dynamics of the world economy, the results of studies of the economic dynamics of developed countries shows that the start of the upward half-waves of the Kondratieff cycle is expected in 1999–2001 goals. It can be associated with the transition to dominance of the fifth technological order, the emergence of the sixth way of life and the beginning of the death of the fourth technological way. The completion of the downward wave of this Kondratiev cycle and the systemic global economic crisis associated with the transition to the dominance of the sixth technological order should expected in 2049–2055. Since the likelihood of economic crises with business cycles, financial and investment cycles begins to increase with the transition to the downward half-wave of the Kondratyev cycle, from 2024–2027 one can expect a deepening of periodic crisis phenomena in the global economy.


2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F3-F3

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, a slowdown in the pace of expansion in the medium term is likely unless productivity growth picks up substantially. We retain our view that the medium term outlook is for growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.No economic outlook is without uncertainties. Issues such as increases in tariffs, the effect of the gradual removal of monetary accommodation and the prolonged persistence of low inflation, create potential for surprises to the forecast.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kateryna Sydorenko ◽  
◽  
Olha Sheremet ◽  

The purpose of article is to comprehensively assess the consequences of COVID-19 for global economy, regions, industries and different forms of international economic relations. In early 2020, the world was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. To save the lives of citizens and the integrity of the health care system, countries were forced to resort to radical measures: lockdowns, which included the complete or partial cessation of international traffic and the reduction of economic activity. Such actions had a negative impact on the world economy: a drop in world production, a decrease in international demand, an increase in unemployment and poverty, a decline in FDI flows. The situation has reached the level of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The COVID-19 crisis has affected regions in different ways. The research methodology combines general and special methods of scientific knowledge: descriptive-analytical, analysis and synthesis, methods of quantitative and qualitative comparisons. The information basis of the article is research and periodical publications of foreign economists, materials and analytical reports of international organizations. The results of the study revealed that the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 started with China, which applied extremely strict quarantine restrictions and already at the end of 2020 showed economic growth. And gradually spread to Europe, North America and the rest of the world. The negative impact of COVID-19 on developed countries with a high proportion of the older people among the population most vulnerable to the disease has been most noticeable. Europe is the region that has suffered the most. For Latin America, Africa and parts of developing Asia, the COVID-19 crisis has been burdened by permanent economic problems and natural disasters: the weakness of the financial system, large public debt, high dependence on commodity prices, locust infestations etc. Developed countries had a margin of stability, so they conducted large-scale programs to support business and households, especially effective were credit guarantee and job preservation state programs. While developing countries were less affected by the spread of the disease but did not have the financial resources to deploy large-scale government assistance programs. New imbalances have emerged in the structure of the world economy. Some industries suffered huge losses and found themselves on the brink of survival (tourism, hotel and restaurant business, entertainment, etc.), unemployment rose significantly; others, on the contrary, worked at full capacity 24/7 and workers were forced to work overtime. FDI flows fell below the level of 2008-2009. The least FDI came to developed countries. Most FDI accounted for mergers and acquisitions in 2020, while investment in existing production assets suffered the most. This trend is expected to continue in 2021. According to the forecast, 2021 should mark the beginning of economic recovery, but it is unlikely to reach the level of 2019. The results of this study could be used in further research, also as in development, planning and implementation of state crisis strategies.


2014 ◽  
Vol 228 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

Following growth of 3.1 per cent in 2013, the world economy is projected to expand by 3.6 per cent in 2014 and 3.9 per cent in 2015.Growth prospects have improved in most advanced economies, with the exception of Japan, although much of the Euro Area remains very depressed.Key risks include deflationary pressures in advanced economies, especially the Euro Area. Provided that it is contained, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global economy is likely to be small.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marat R. Safiullin ◽  
Gulnaz M. Galeeva ◽  
Raushaniya I. Zinurova

This paper considers the differentiation of the development level of some countries of the world using different models of socio-economic development. The study consisted of several stages and was based on data published on the official websites of the World Economic Forum, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. In this regard, we studied the methods for assessing the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the development of countries in the world economy. We also studied the leading countries in terms of socio-economic development, strategies and their competitive advantages, and identified priority areas for the development of the economies of countries under consideration during the analyzed period. This paper presents an analysis of economic parameters, a comparison of national economies, their development dynamics using quantitative indicators of economic growth. According to the study, China has prospects for a great leap forward in economic development, the United States is the leader in many respects, and Japan has slowed down in economic growth and risks continuing to suffer losses in a number of economic indicators. Chad, India, China and developed countries have strong differentiation in terms of per capita GDP growth rates according to PPPs. All this speaks of the processes of strengthening differentiation, taking place in the world economy, widening the gap in the level of life quality among countries


2015 ◽  
Vol 233 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015 – the slowest rate since the crisis – and 3.5 per cent in 2016.Emerging market economies have slowed, while recoveries remain hesitant in most developed countries.Growth may be boosted by delayed effects of lower oil prices, as well as by accommodative monetary policy and slower fiscal consolidation, but considerable risks remain.We still expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official policy rates in September, with the Bank of England following in February 2016.


2001 ◽  
pp. 13-17
Author(s):  
Serhii Viktorovych Svystunov

In the 21st century, the world became a sign of globalization: global conflicts, global disasters, global economy, global Internet, etc. The Polish researcher Casimir Zhigulsky defines globalization as a kind of process, that is, the target set of characteristic changes that develop over time and occur in the modern world. These changes in general are reduced to mutual rapprochement, reduction of distances, the rapid appearance of a large number of different connections, contacts, exchanges, and to increase the dependence of society in almost all spheres of his life from what is happening in other, often very remote regions of the world.


2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.


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