The UK Economy

1998 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 9-26
Author(s):  
Marie Sheldon ◽  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Real Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Building Societies

By almost any criteria 1997 turned out to be a very good year for the British economy. As in the preceding three years, real growth was faster than the rate of consumer price inflation. Unemployment fell very sharply, by almost half a million on the claimant count definition, and around 350,000 mostly full-time jobs were created over the course of the year. The balance of payments showed a surplus on current account of an estimated £4 billion and the fiscal position strengthened significantly. Among the demand components, consumers' expenditure rose by about 4 per cent, largely as a consequence of fast income growth. The windfall payments received by the personal sector on the conversion of some building societies into banks appear to have been mainly saved rather than spent, thereby adding to wealth. Personal sector wealth also benefited from increases in house prices of about 10 per cent and a rise in equity prices of around 20 per cent.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1987 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 6-20
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Capacity Utilisation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Current Account

For the first time in more than a decade the question is being asked whether the growth of the UK economy this year may be, in some sense, too rapid. Fears have been expressed of ‘overheating’ leading to a rise in inflation and excessive growth in imports. Comparisons have been made with the ‘boom’ conditions of 1972 and 1973. In our view these fears are exaggerated and the comparisons misleading. Nevertheless some increase in the rate of inflation is to be expected, and the underlying position on the current account of the balance of payments seems already to have moved from surplus into deficit. We now expect the rate of the economy this year to be around 3½ per cent, compared with about 3 per cent in 1986. Thus, if we are correct, the acceleration year on year is very slight, well within the error margins of measurement. This contrasts with 1972 and 1973 when the growth rate averaged 4½ per cent for two years. Moreover unemployment was only about 1 million at the beginning of 1972 and about 1/2 million at the end of 1973 whilst last year it at over 3 million and is not expected to fall as low as 2½ million even next year. Even if inflation next year does rise from about 3½ per cent a year to about 5 per cent, as we expect, this is still not comparable with the rates of 7½ and 9 per cent experienced in 1972 and 1973. The CBI index of capacity utilisation is now not far below its peak level in 1973, but we doubt whether an index of this kind is reliable for comparision between periods so far apart in time.

The Interpretation of House Price Statistics for the United Kingdom

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1109-1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
M C Fleming ◽  
J G Nellis
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Critical Appraisal ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Price Levels ◽  
Incomplete Coverage ◽  
The Uk

A survey is made of all official and unofficial sources of statistics on house prices in the UK. This is followed by a critical appraisal of the evidence they provide about national and regional price levels and about house price inflation. Attention is focused on two crucial factors: the representativeness of the data and the heterogeneity of houses. It is concluded that incomplete coverage of all house transactions means that most series tend to overstate price levels and that intertemporal and interregional comparisons are sensitive to the composition by type of houses traded.

Brexit may take some heat out of the UK housing market

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Social Housing ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Green Belts

Subject The UK housing market. Significance The UK Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government set out its objectives on May 23 to deliver a net 300,000 dwellings per year in England by end-2022. This attempt to dampen house prices may have a small effect, but underlying fundamentals will be much more important. Moreover, house prices are only one side of the 'affordability coin' and constraints on income growth are just as relevant. Impacts Increasingly unaffordable housing in the South East outside of London could cost the Conservatives support among their core voters. Labour is likely to push for greater public investment in social housing and more autonomy for local councils to finance such investment. Restrictions on buy-to-let mortgages and foreign investment in real estate could gain greater traction in public debate. Planning restrictions are likely to be loosened as the government pursues its annual target and parts of 'green belts' could be lost.

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-270
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Peter van Gool
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dutch Housing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace. Design/methodology/approach A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique). Findings Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern. Originality/value Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.

Chapter I. The Economy in 1977

1978 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 6-21
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Effective Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

British economic policy in 1977 was conducted for the most part within the confines of the undertakings given to the IMF in the Letter of Intent of December 1976. Partly as a result, output stagnated almost completely and unemployment rose slowly and erratically by a further 100 thousand during the year. The operation of Stage II of the pay policy during the first half of the year and the almost universal acceptance of the 10 per cent settlements guideline during the second half meant that the wage and salary bill was just under 10 per cent higher in 1977 than in 1976, compared with an increase of over 13 per cent in the previous year. Import prices rose by 16 per cent year-on-year (partly because of the sharp effective depreciation of sterling in late 1976) but the rate of consumer price inflation slowed a little, from 15 1/2 per cent during 1976 (that is, between the final quarters of 1975 and 1976) to just over 14 per cent last year. Despite the virtual stagnation of home demand, the depreciation of sterling (the effective rate was 5 per cent lower on average in 1977 than in 1976) and the net increase in the North Sea oil benefit from about £0.5 billion in 1976 to over £2 billion in 1977, the current account of the balance of payments reached only bare balance (from a 1976 deficit of just over £1 billion).

The Current Position of UK House Prices

2004 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 57-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Current Position ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
The Future ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Future Path

House price inflation in the UK has been particularly high in recent years. This has led to much discussion concerning the future path of house price growth. Whether the future scenario involves a moderation or instead a sharp correction in house prices has important implications for the short to medium path of household consumption expenditure.

The UK Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 7-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Past ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Current Account

The development of the UK economy over the past four years has been marked by a very favourable and unexpected combination of steady growth and low inflation with prices growing on average at about the same rate as real income. In addition, claimant unemployment has fallen by over 800,000 since its peak at the beginning of 1993 and the current account deficit of the balance of payments has remained small and, somewhat erratically, declined.

THE ALLIED NEUTRAL? PORTUGUESE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS WITH THE UK AND GERMANY IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR, 1939-1945

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-110
Author(s):  
Eric Golson
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Third Party ◽  
World War ◽  
Portuguese Empire ◽  
Active Choice ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second World

ABSTRACTIn September 1939, Portugal made a realist strategic choice to preserve the Portuguese Empire maintaining by its neutrality and also remaining an ally of Great Britain. While the Portuguese could rely largely on their colonies for raw materials to sustain the mainland, the country had long depended on British transportation for these goods and the Portuguese military. With the British priority now given to war transportation, Portugal's economy and Empire were particularly vulnerable. The Portuguese dictator Antonio Salazar sought to mitigate this damage by maintaining particularly friendly financial relations with the British government, including increased exports of Portuguese merchandise and services and permission to accumulate credits in Sterling to cover deficits in the balance of payments. This paper gives an improved set of comprehensive statistics for the Anglo-Portuguese and German–Portuguese relationships, reported in Pounds and according to international standards. The reported statistics include the trade in merchandise, services, capital flows, loans and third-party transfers of funds in favour of the British account. When compared with the German statistics, the Anglo-Portuguese figures show the Portuguese government favoured the British in financial relations, an active choice by Salazar to maintain the Portuguese Empire.

The Asymmetric Effects of Regional House Prices in the UK: New Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression Framework

2021 ◽  
pp. 232102222098054
Author(s):  
Panayiotis Tzeremes
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Housing Starts ◽  
Panel Quantile Regression ◽  
Linear Behaviour ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
The Uk

This study unfurls the non-linear behaviour of regional house prices in the United Kingdom by employing quarterly observations spanning the period 1992Q1–2017Q4. Our enquiry aims at examining UK house prices within a multivariable framework and, more specifically, by employing panel quantile regression with fixed effect. In brief, the empirical findings obtained from these methodologies indicate that the UK house prices are influenced at lower and upper quantiles, and that precisely they are influenced by variables such as income, private sector housing starts and employment. We highly support that there is a strong heterogeneity among UK regions and that asymmetry may be one of the keys of the ripple effect. Particularly, the income shows a positively significant performance at lower and higher regional house prices. Moreover, the variables private sector housing starts and employment rate are statistically significant for house prices. Leveraging for first-time panel quantile regression for the case of regional house prices in the UK, policymakers will have a profound understanding of regional house prices. JEL Classifications: C22, R21, R31

scholarly journals The role and significance of planning in the determination of house prices in Australia: Recent policy debates

2021 ◽  
pp. 0308518X2198894
Author(s):  
Peter Phibbs ◽  
Nicole Gurran
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Depth Analysis

On the world stage, Australian cities have been punching above their weight in global indexes of housing prices, sparking heated debates about the causes of and remedies for, sustained house price inflation. This paper examines the evidence base underpinning such debates, and the policy claims made by key commentators and stakeholders. With reference to the wider context of Australia’s housing market over a 20 year period, as well as an in depth analysis of a research paper by Australia’s central Reserve Bank, we show how economic theories commonly position land use planning as a primary driver of new supply constraints but overlook other explanations for housing market behavior. In doing so, we offer an alternative understanding of urban housing markets and land use planning interventions as a basis for more effective policy intervention in Australian and other world cities.

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