Achieving More With Less: Intuitive Correction in Selection

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-448
Author(s):  
Hagai Rabinovitch ◽  
Yoella Bereby-Meyer ◽  
David V. Budescu
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Reading Speed ◽  
Situational Factor ◽  
Total N ◽  
Suitable Candidate ◽  
Unfair Advantage ◽  
Selection Test ◽  
Irrelevant Attribute ◽  
Suppressor Variable ◽  
Do So

Choosing between candidates for a position can be tricky, especially when the selection test is affected by irrelevant characteristics (e.g., reading speed). One can correct for this irrelevant attribute by penalizing individuals who have unjustifiably benefited from it. Statistical models do so by including the irrelevant attribute as a suppressor variable, but can people do the same without the help of a model? In three experiments (total N = 357), participants had to choose between two candidates, one of whom had higher levels of an irrelevant attribute and thus enjoyed an unfair advantage. Participants showed a substantial preference for the candidate with high levels of the irrelevant attribute, thus choosing the less suitable candidate. This bias was attenuated when the irrelevant attribute was a situational factor, probably by making the correction process more intuitive. Understanding the intuitive judgment of suppressor variables can help candidates from underprivileged groups boost their chances to succeed.

scholarly journals Priming intuition disfavors instrumental harm but not impartial beneficence

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerio Capraro ◽  
Jim Albert Charlton Everett ◽  
Brian D. Earp
Keyword(s):  
Moral Judgment ◽  
Moral Dilemmas ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Dimensional Model ◽  
Total N ◽  
Two Dimensional Model ◽  
Do So

Understanding the cognitive underpinnings of moral judgment is one of most pressing problems in psychological science. Some highly-cited studies suggest that reliance on intuition decreases utilitarian (expected welfare maximizing) judgments in sacrificial moral dilemmas in which one has to decide whether to instrumentally harm (IH) one person to save a greater number of people. However, recent work suggests that such dilemmas are limited in that they fail to capture the positive, defining core of utilitarianism: commitment to impartial beneficence (IB). Accordingly, a new two-dimensional model of utilitarian judgment has been proposed that distinguishes IH and IB components. The role of intuition on this new model has not been studied. Does relying on intuition disfavor utilitarian choices only along the dimension of instrumental harm or does it also do so along the dimension of impartial beneficence? To answer this question, we conducted three studies (total N = 970, two preregistered) using conceptual priming of intuition versus deliberation on moral judgments. Our evidence converges on an interaction effect, with intuition decreasing utilitarian judgments in IH—as suggested by previous work—but failing to do so in IB. These findings bolster the recently proposed two-dimensional model of utilitarian moral judgment, and point to new avenues for future research.

Artificial Intelligence and Persuasion: A Construal-Level Account

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tae Woo Kim ◽  
Adam Duhachek
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Construal Level Theory ◽  
Construal Level ◽  
Artificial Agents ◽  
Artificial Agent ◽  
Persuasive Messages ◽  
Total N ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Level ◽  
Do So

Although more individuals are relying on information provided by nonhuman agents, such as artificial intelligence and robots, little research has examined how persuasion attempts made by nonhuman agents might differ from persuasion attempts made by human agents. Drawing on construal-level theory, we posited that individuals would perceive artificial agents at a low level of construal because of the agents’ lack of autonomous goals and intentions, which directs individuals’ focus toward how these agents implement actions to serve humans rather than why they do so. Across multiple studies (total N = 1,668), we showed that these construal-based differences affect compliance with persuasive messages made by artificial agents. These messages are more appropriate and effective when the message represents low-level as opposed to high-level construal features. These effects were moderated by the extent to which an artificial agent could independently learn from its environment, given that learning defies people’s lay theories about artificial agents.

Modification of the Nitrogen Content and C:N Ratio of Sitka Spruce Timber by Kiln and Air Drying

Holzforschung ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Payne
Keyword(s):  
C:N Ratio ◽  
Sitka Spruce ◽  
N Loss ◽  
Air Drying ◽  
N Content ◽  
Total N ◽  
Kiln Drying ◽  
Wood Temperature ◽  
N Enrichment ◽  
Do So

Summary Loss of N from Sitka spruce timber was investigated by sampling battens before drying, after 5 and 41 days air drying, after exposure to a full kiln drying schedule and at 24 h intervals during kiln drying. Undried sapwood and heartwood had similar total N content. Kiln drying significantly reduced total N content of the sapwood and heartwood within the first 24 h of the drying schedule when wood temperature was below 50°C. Tests using timber from trees felled at different times of the year and grown in different locations with considerably different undried N content indicated a constant N loss of approx 30% of the total as a result of kiln drying. No evidence of absolute N enrichment of evaporation surfaces of battens was found, although a slight enrichment relative to wood within battens did develop as a result of kiln drying. Air drying also reduced N content but to a lesser extent than kiln drying, even after 41 days exposure. Nitrogen was lost more quickly from heartwood than sapwood during air drying. Loss of N from the wood appears to be in a gaseous or vapour form which is suggested to be through loss of naturally present ammonia and deamination of amino acids to produce further ammonia. GC-MS analysis of gasses/vapours released by wood samples indicated that molecules of 17 amu, which may include ammonia, were liberated in relatively large quantities from undried heartwood but not from partly kiln dried heartwood when heated. Sapwood released these molecules more slowly and continued to do so following partial kiln drying possibly indicating a less volatile source. Temperature gradients within battens during kiln drying were relatively small, with temperature similar to that of the kiln air.

Does Self-control Predict Crime, Delinquency, and Victimization in Immigrants? A Longitudinal Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 088626052097621
Author(s):  
Makpal Kundakova ◽  
Dzhansarayeva Rima ◽  
Gulzagira Atakhanova ◽  
Nuraisha Temirbolat ◽  
Kevin M. Beaver
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Add Health ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adult Health ◽  
National Longitudinal Study ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Low Self Control ◽  
Do So

Gottfredson and Hirschi’s theory of low self-control has generated a considerable amount of research and the results of these studies have shown that low levels of self-control are consistently associated with involvement in antisocial outcomes. Despite the empirical support for this theory, there still remain areas of it that need to be more fully evaluated. Once such area is whether self-control is associated with antisocial outcomes in samples of immigrants. The current study sought to address this gap in the literature. To do so, data drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) were analyzed. The results of the statistical models revealed that low levels of self-control were associated with increases in self-reported delinquency, being arrested, being convicted of a crime, being sentenced to probation, being incarcerated, and being victimized. Taken together, the results of this study show that self-control is a robust predictor of antisocial outcomes among immigrants. We conclude by identifying limitations of the current study and directions for future research.

scholarly journals De utryghedsmæssige konsekvenser af udsathed for kriminalitet i Danmark

2020 ◽  
Vol 107 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-66
Author(s):  
Rune H. Scherg ◽  
Anders Ejrnæs
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Current Article ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Cross Sectional Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

AbstractThis article examines the consequences of victimisation in relation to feeling of safety in Denmark.2 Using various statistical models, we address two general questions: First, how do different victimisation patterns affect victims’ feelings of safety, and second, how do victims’ demographic characteristics modify the consequences of victimisation in relation to feelings of safety. We analyse panel data from the Danish Police’s Safety Survey (2014-2018) linked to Danish register data. Although there is an abundance of international research about the victimfear nexus, there are still gaps in our current understanding of this relationship. First, research on the impact of victimization on feelings of safety is often based on cross-sectional studies, which don’t allow for solid causal inferences. Second, potential differences between different groups of victims have not been thoroughly analysed as few studies have had the statistical power to do so. Last, there is a scarcity of Scandinavian studies on the subject. The current article shows that victimization has a consistent effect on feelings of safety. However, the size of the effect is generally moderate and short-lived. The article also demonstrates that the impacts of victimization are disproportionately distributed across different groups of victims.

defender of his or her own position. In a climate based on such values, the role of the court is minimal. However, it can be suggested that modern values may be more based on co-operation and that courts may be more concerned with fairness in the exchange process. In Williams v Williams, Ward v Byham and Williams v Roffey, the promisor had made a specific request and got what he/she asked for. But it is not difficult to change the facts of these cases in a manner which might disclose difficult policy issues. Suppose, in Williams v Roffey, it was not the promisor, but the promisee who had instigated the negotiations and there was a veiled threat to the effect, ‘unless you pay me an inflated price for completing the work, I will not go ahead, and I know I have you over a barrel, because I am aware that unless the building work is completed on time, you will have to pay a heavy penalty’. In these circumstances, the court is likely to refuse to allow a contracting party to take unfair advantage of his stronger bargaining position and may promote the value of social co-operation. In D & C Builders Ltd v Rees, the plaintiffs were a firm of builders who had carried out work on the defendant’s shop to the value of almost £747. Two hundred and fifty pounds had been paid on account and the plaintiffs had given the defendant a £14 allowance, so that the outstanding debt was one of almost £483. The defendant did not pay when asked to do so and refrained from replying to requests for payment until some four months later, when the defendant’s wife offered to pay £300 in full and final settlement. The plaintiffs were in desperate financial circumstances and, if they did not accept payment of the £300, they faced the possibility of bankruptcy – a fact of which the defendant was aware. The defendant’s wife consistently refused to pay any more than the £300 offered and the question arose whether the plaintiffs could sue for the balance of the debt due. At first instance, it was held that there was no binding settlement, so that there was no bar to the plaintiffs recovering the balance of the debt. On appeal by the defendant, the Court of Appeal unanimously found in favour of the plaintiffs on the basis that under the rule in Foakes v Beer, payment of a lesser sum does not satisfy a greater

1995 ◽  
pp. 182-183
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Process ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Unfair Advantage ◽  
Bargaining Position ◽  
Outstanding Debt ◽  
Final Settlement ◽  
Court Of Appeal ◽  
Do So

scholarly journals Registered Replication Report on Mazar, Amir, and Ariely (2008)

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Verschuere ◽  
Ewout H. Meijer ◽  
Ariane Jim ◽  
Katherine Hoogesteyn ◽  
Robin Orthey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Concept ◽  
Total N ◽  
Cohen’S D ◽  
Priming Task ◽  
Ten Commandments ◽  
Cohen's D ◽  
Problem Solving Task ◽  
Do So

The self-concept maintenance theory holds that many people will cheat in order to maximize self-profit, but only to the extent that they can do so while maintaining a positive self-concept. Mazar, Amir, and Ariely (2008, Experiment 1) gave participants an opportunity and incentive to cheat on a problem-solving task. Prior to that task, participants either recalled the Ten Commandments (a moral reminder) or recalled 10 books they had read in high school (a neutral task). Results were consistent with the self-concept maintenance theory. When given the opportunity to cheat, participants given the moral-reminder priming task reported solving 1.45 fewer matrices than did those given a neutral prime (Cohen’s d = 0.48); moral reminders reduced cheating. Mazar et al.’s article is among the most cited in deception research, but their Experiment 1 has not been replicated directly. This Registered Replication Report describes the aggregated result of 25 direct replications (total N = 5,786), all of which followed the same preregistered protocol. In the primary meta-analysis (19 replications, total n = 4,674), participants who were given an opportunity to cheat reported solving 0.11 more matrices if they were given a moral reminder than if they were given a neutral reminder (95% confidence interval = [−0.09, 0.31]). This small effect was numerically in the opposite direction of the effect observed in the original study (Cohen’s d = −0.04).

scholarly journals Glacial cycles: exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 585-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. K. Kaufmann ◽  
K. Juselius
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Threshold Effects ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Solar Insolation ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Do So

Abstract. We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr–present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

scholarly journals A Critique of Statistical Machine Translation

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Way
Keyword(s):  
Machine Translation ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Prior Experience ◽  
Statistical Machine Translation ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Mt Evaluation ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

Phrase-Based Statistical Machine Translation (PB-SMT) is clearly the leading paradigm in the field today. Nevertheless—and this may come as some surprise to the PB-SMT community—most translators and, somewhat more surprisingly perhaps, many experienced MT protagonists find the basic model extremely difficult to understand. The main aim of this paper, therefore, is to discuss why this might be the case. Our basic thesis is that proponents of PB-SMT do not seek to address any community other than their own, for they do not feel any need to do so. We demonstrate that this was not always the case; on the contrary, when statistical models of trans-lation were first presented, the language used to describe how such a model might work was very conciliatory, and inclusive. Over the next five years, things changed considerably; once SMT achieved dominance particularly over the rule-based paradigm, it had established a position where it did not need to bring along the rest of the MT community with it, and in our view, this has largely pertained to this day. Having discussed these issues, we discuss three additional issues: the role of automatic MT evaluation metrics when describing PB-SMT systems; the recent syntactic embellishments of PB-SMT, noting especially that most of these contributions have come from researchers who have prior experience in fields other than statistical models of translation; and the relationship between PB-SMT and other models of translation, suggesting that there are many gains to be had if the SMT community were to open up more to the other MT paradigms.

scholarly journals Reading Predictors in Croatian

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-184
Author(s):  
Maja Kelić ◽  
Mirta Zelenika Zeba ◽  
Jelena Kuvač Kraljević
Keyword(s):  
Reading Instruction ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Reading Speed ◽  
Digit Span ◽  
Reading Rate ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Hierarchical Multiple Regression ◽  
Transparent Orthography ◽  
Reading Accuracy ◽  
Suppressor Variable

Phonological awareness (PA), rapid automatised naming (RAN) and working memory (WM) are considered to be the most important factors supporting reading development. However, their relative importance varies across orthographies and age. The goal of this study was to examine reading predictors in Croatian, a language with highly transparent orthography, after three years of formal reading instruction. The study included 80 participants (mean age: 10.07 years). Reading rate and accuracy were measured using lists of words and pseudowords, and PA was measured using phoneme deletion, phoneme addition and spoonerism tasks. RAN was measured using naming of colours, and WM was measured using the WM standardised measure of digit span (WISC-IV-HR) and pseudoword repetition. In order to find the best predictors of reading rate and accuracy for both words and pseudowords, three-stage hierarchical multiple regression was conducted. The results showed that in highly transparent language when reading is automatised, RAN is the most significant predictor of both reading rate and accuracy. Although this study did not show dissociation between the predictors supporting reading speed and reading accuracy, it confirmed the importance of PA as a suppressor variable for RAN in predicting pseudowords reading time.

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