scholarly journals Redistributive preferences: Why actual income is ultimately more important than perceived income

2021 ◽  
pp. 095892872110379
Author(s):  
David Weisstanner ◽  
Klaus Armingeon
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Subjective Perceptions ◽  
Preferences For Redistribution ◽  
True Position ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Corrective Information

An emerging consensus claims that ‘subjective’ (mis)perceptions of income inequality better explain redistributive preferences than actual ‘objective’ conditions. In this article, we critically re-assess this view. We compare perceived and actual income positions as predictors for preferences for redistribution. We argue that perceived income is partly endogenous to actual income and its effect on preferences conditional on ideology. Using an original survey experiment from Switzerland, we show that the predictive power of perceived income is lower compared to actual income. Perceived income is only associated with redistribution preferences among centre-right respondents, but not among left-wing respondents. Furthermore, providing respondents with corrective information about their true position in the income hierarchy has no effect on redistribution preferences. These findings go against the new consensus about the superior explanatory power of subjective perceptions of income inequality. We argue instead that absolute objective conditions should be at the centre of explaining redistributive preferences.

scholarly journals Preferences, vote choice, and the politics of social investment: Addressing the puzzle of unequal benefits of childcare provision

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ERIK NEIMANNS
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Original Survey

Abstract Research on the politics of social investment finds public opinion to be highly supportive of expansive reforms and expects this support to matter for the politics of expanding social investment. Expanding social investment, it is argued, should be particularly attractive to left-wing voters and parties because of the egalitarian potential of such policies. However, few studies have examined to what extent individual preferences concerning social investment really matter politically. In this paper, I address this research gap for the crucial policy field of childcare by examining how individual-level preferences for expanding childcare provision translate into voting behavior. Based on original survey data from eight European countries, I find that preferences to expand public childcare spending indeed translate into electoral support for the left. However, this link from preferences to votes turns out to be socially biased. Childcare preferences are much more decisive for voting the further up individuals are in the income distribution. This imperfect transmission from preferences to voting behavior implies that political parties could have incentives to target the benefits of childcare reforms to their more affluent voters. My findings help to explain why governments frequently fail to reduce social inequality of access to seemingly egalitarian childcare provision.

scholarly journals Correcting Citizens’ Misperceptions about non-Western Immigrants: Corrective Information, Interpretations, and Policy Opinions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederik Juhl Jørgensen ◽  
Mathias Osmundsen
Keyword(s):  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Correct Information ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Scale Survey ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Information Change ◽  
Corrective Information

Abstract Can corrective information change citizens’ misperceptions about immigrants and subsequently lead to favorable immigration opinions? While prior studies from the USA document how corrections about the size of minority populations fail to change citizens’ immigration-related opinions, they do not examine how other facts that speak to immigrants’ cultural or economic dependency rates can influence immigration policy opinions. To extend earlier work, we conducted a large-scale survey experiment fielded to a nationally representative sample of Danes. We randomly expose participants to information about non-Western immigrants’ (1) welfare dependency rate, (2) crime rate, and (3) proportion of the total population. We find that participants update their factual beliefs in light of correct information, but reinterpret the information in a highly selective fashion, ultimately failing to change their policy preferences.

Explanation Plus Prediction—The Logical Focus of Project Management Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 875697282199994
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Hair ◽  
Marko Sarstedt
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Management Research ◽  
The Mean

Most project management research focuses almost exclusively on explanatory analyses. Evaluation of the explanatory power of statistical models is generally based on F-type statistics and the R 2 metric, followed by an assessment of the model parameters (e.g., beta coefficients) in terms of their significance, size, and direction. However, these measures are not indicative of a model’s predictive power, which is central for deriving managerial recommendations. We recommend that project management researchers routinely use additional metrics, such as the mean absolute error or the root mean square error, to accurately quantify their statistical models’ predictive power.

scholarly journals Welfare chauvinism across benefits and services

2021 ◽  
pp. 095892872110230
Author(s):  
Gianna Maria Eick ◽  
Christian Albrekt Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Social Protection ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Risks ◽  
Cash Benefits ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
The Uk

The article theorises how covering social risks through cash transfers and in-kind services shapes public attitudes towards including/excluding immigrants from these programmes in Western European destination countries. The argument is that public attitudes are more restrictive of granting immigrants access to benefits than to services. This hypothesis is tested across ten social protection programmes using original survey data collected in Denmark, Germany and the UK in 2019. Across the three countries, representing respectively a social democratic, conservative and liberal welfare regime context, the article finds that the public does indeed have a preference for easier access for in-kind services than for cash benefits. The article also finds these results to be stable across programmes covering the same social risks; the examples are child benefits and childcare. The results are even stable across left-wing, mainstream and radical right-wing voters; with the partial exception of radical right-wing voters in the UK. Finally, the article finds only a moderate association between individual characteristics and attitudinal variation across cash benefits and in-kind services.

Intervening in Anti-Immigrant Sentiments: The Causal Effects of Factual Information on Attitudes toward Immigration

2021 ◽  
Vol 697 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-191
Author(s):  
Maria Abascal ◽  
Tiffany J. Huang ◽  
Van C. Tran
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Social Cognitions ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Factual Information ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Contrast Information ◽  
Attitudes Toward Immigration

If preferences on immigration policy respond to facts, widespread misinformation poses an obstacle to consensus. Does factual information about immigration indeed affect policy preferences? Are beliefs about immigration’s societal impact the mechanism through which factual information affects support for increased immigration? To address these questions, we conducted an original survey experiment, in which we presented a nationally representative sample of 2,049 Americans living in the United States with facts about immigrants’ English acquisition and immigrants’ impact on crime, jobs, and taxes—four domains with common misperceptions. Three of these factual domains (immigration’s impact on crime, jobs, and taxes) raise overall support for increased immigration. These facts also affect beliefs that are directly relevant to that information. Moreover, those beliefs mediate the effect of factual information on support for increased immigration. By contrast, information about English acquisition affects neither policy preferences nor beliefs about immigration’s impact. Facts can leverage social cognitions to change policy preferences.

Opposition fragmentation facilitates electoral accountability. Evidence from a survey experiment

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110524
Author(s):  
Sergi Ferrer
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Direct Test ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
The One

Which is better for electoral accountability: a fragmented opposition that gives plenty of alternatives or an opposition with fewer stronger parties? While oppositions play a key role in democracies, the effect of opposition fragmentation on accountability remains unclear. On the one hand, fragmentation may enhance accountability by providing voters with ideologically close alternatives. On the other hand, increased fragmentation could make coordination over strong viable alternatives more difficult. In this study, I present an original survey experiment designed to test whether fragmentation of the opposition enhances accountability. Moreover, to assess the specific conditions under which fragmentation may enhance accountability, I distinguish between ideologues and pragmatic voters, and differentiate between ideological and valence issues. Results show that opposition fragmentation enhances accountability, particularly for ideologues. Lastly, I present a direct test of the mechanisms that demonstrates that fragmentation improves accountability because marginal gains in ideological proximity outweigh losses in viability.

Subjective social class and individual preferences for redistribution

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-189
Author(s):  
Anil Duman
Keyword(s):  
Social Class ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preferences For Redistribution ◽  
Class Status ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Subjective Social Class ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The recent increase in economic inequalities in many countries heightened the debates about policy preferences on income distribution. Attitudes toward inequality vary greatly across countries and numerous explanations are offered to clarify the factors leading to support for redistribution. The purpose of this paper is to examine the link between subjective social class and redistributive demands by jointly considering the individual and national factors. The author argues that subjective measures of social positions can be highly explanatory for preferences about redistribution policies. Design/methodology/approach The author uses data from 48 countries gathered by World Values Survey and empirically tests the impact of self-positioning into classes by multilevel ordered logit model. Several model specifications and estimation strategies have been employed to obtain consistent estimates and to check for the robustness of the results. Findings The findings show that, in addition to objective factors, subjective class status is highly explanatory for redistributive preferences across countries. The author also exhibits that there is interaction between self-ranking of social status and national context. The author’s estimations from the multilevel models verify that subjective social class has greater explanatory power in more equal societies. This is in contrast to the previous studies that establish a positive link between inequality and redistribution. Originality/value The paper contributes to the literature by introducing subjective social class as a determinant. Self-ranked positions can be very relieving about policy preferences given the information these categorizations encompass about individuals’ perceptions about their and others’ place in the society.

scholarly journals The Lesser Evil? Corruption Voting and the Importance of Clean Alternatives

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattias Agerberg
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Theory ◽  
Political Corruption ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Apparent Paradox ◽  
Public Office ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The World ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Choice Option

Surveys show that citizens in all parts of the world have a strong distaste for corruption. At the same time, and contrary to the predictions of democratic theory, politicians involved in the most glaring abuse of public office often continue to receive electoral support. Using an original survey experiment conducted in Spain, this article explores a previously understudied aspect of this apparent paradox: the importance of viable and clean political alternatives. The results suggest that voters do punish political corruption when a clean alternative exists, even when the corrupt candidate is very appealing in other respects. However, when only given corrupt alternatives, respondents become much more likely to tolerate a candidate accused of corruption—even when given a convenient “no-choice” option. I discuss how these results can help us understand corruption voting and why some societies seem to be stuck in a high-corruption equilibrium.

scholarly journals Low predictive power of mid-domain effect to explain geographic species richness patterns in Palearctic songbirds

2007 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Aliabadian ◽  
C. S. Roselaar ◽  
R. Sluys ◽  
V. Nijman
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Null Model ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Geometric Constraints ◽  
Diversity Patterns ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Biogeographic Patterns ◽  
Richness Patterns

In the study of diversity patterns, the Mid-domain effect (MDE), which explains gradients in diversity solely on the basis of geometric constraints, has emerged as a null-model against which other hypotheses can be tested. The effectiveness, measured by its predictive power, of these MDE models appears to depend on the size of the study area and the range-sizes of the taxa considered. Here we test the predictive power of MDE on the species richness patterns of birds and assess its effectiveness for a variety of species range sizes. We digitised distribution maps of 889 species of songbird endemic to the Palearctic, and analysed the emergent biogeographic patterns with WORLDMAP software. MDE had a predictive power of 20% when all songbirds were included. Major hotspots were located south of the area where MDE predicted the highest species-richness, and some of the observed coldspots were in the centre of the Palearctic, contradicting the predictions of the MDE. MDE had little explanatory power (3-19%) for all but the largest range sizes, whereas MDE performed equal or better for the large-ranged species (20-34%) compared to the overall model. Overall MDE did not accurate explain species-richness patterns in Palearctic songbirds. Subsets of larger-range species did not always have a larger predictive power than smaller-range species or the overall model. Despite their low predictive power, MDE models can have a role to play in explaining biogeographic patterns but other variables need to be included in the model as well.

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