Post-rentier Economic Challenges

2017 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

The rentier states of the Middle East face a combination of political and economic challenges as they seek to reduce their reliance on volatile oil and gas revenues and diversify their economies. This article examines how the political economy of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states remains heavily dependent on the hydrocarbon sector and analyses the policy responses to the fall in world oil prices since 2014. Sections in the article examine the definitional aspect of rentier state theory, nature of the redistributive welfare state that developed in the 1970s in each Gulf State, and the political aspect of economic measures that seek to reform aspects of the distinctive political economy that has underpinned socio-political and economic stability for the past five decades.

Author(s):  
Adam Hanieh

The Middle East’s pivotal position in a hydrocarbon-based global capitalism carries enormous ramifications for the region and the Gulf Arab states in particular. This chapter aims to present key debates associated with this transformation. It begins with an overview of the Rentier State Theory (RST). RST theorists foreground the impact of oil rents on Gulf states, drawing causal relationships between these rents and the characteristics of the Gulf’s political economy. The chapter turns to a critique of some of its core assumptions, notably its theorization of state and class. It argues that a more satisfactory understanding of the political economy of oil in the Gulf can be found through a return to the categories of class and capitalism, and a deeper appreciation of the ways in which the Gulf is located in the wider dynamics of accumulation in the world market.


Author(s):  
Courtney Freer

This book, using contemporary history and original empirical research, updates traditional rentier state theory, which largely fails to account for the existence of Islamist movements, by demonstrating the political capital held by Muslim Brotherhood affiliates in Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While rentier state theory predicts that citizens of such states will form opposition blocs only when their stake in rent income is threatened, this book demonstrates that ideology, rather than rent, has motivated the formation of independent Islamist movements in the wealthiest states of the region. It argues for this thesis by chronicling the history of the Brotherhood in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, and showing how the organization adapted to the changing (and often adverse) political environs of those respective countries to remain a popular and influential force for social, educational, and political change in the region. The presence of oil rents, then, far from rendering Islamist complaint politically irrelevant, shapes the ways in which Islamist movements seek to influence government policies.


Author(s):  
Giacomo Luciani

This chapter looks at the role of oil in the political economy and the international relations of the Middle East. Oil is commonly considered a political commodity. Because of its pivotal importance as a primary source of energy, governments are concerned with its continued availability and seek to minimize import dependence. Historically, interest in oil — especially in the United Kingdom and the United States — strongly influenced attitudes towards the Middle East and the formation of the state system in the region, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Oil also affects the power balance within the region. The polarization in the region between oil-rich and oil-poor states is thus an essential tool of analysis. The parallel distinction between rentier and non-rentier states helps to explain how oil affects the domestic political development of the oil-rich states and influences their regional relations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Kaya ◽  
Evren Tok ◽  
Muammer Koc ◽  
Toufic Mezher ◽  
I-Tsung Tsai

This paper develops a theoretical model to analyze whether a rentier state can diversify its economy away from the rent revenue and hence sustain the economic development and preserve the status-quo. Considering the decarbonization process of the global economy and rapidly fall in economic value of hydrocarbons in the face of the supply glut, rentier states depending on oil and gas revenues urgently need to diversify their economies to avoid social backlash and political upheaval. There are three intertwining factors that determine an effective economic diversification away from the rent revenue: The profitability of non-rentier sectors, the size of the domestic economy to induce a “Big Push” for industrialization to non-rentier sectors, and the level of economic inclusivity. For an optimal level of economic diversification in a rentier state: (1) Non-rentier sectors should be attractive to private agents without the entry barriers; (2) domestic economy should be large enough to induce investment into non-rentier sectors; (3) the ruler(s) should have sufficient tolerance (inclusivity) for private agents investing into non-rentier sectors. Our findings indicate that a rentier state can achieve an optimal level of economic diversification provided that the conditions above are met even without any political change.


Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin De Jong ◽  
Thomas Hoppe ◽  
Negar Noori

In the past three decades Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have realised a meteoric economic rise. Whereas the former two can be considered ‘rentier states’ heavily depending on oil (and gas) revenues, the latter only leans on oil for a mere 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Although the economic rise has brought considerable welfare, it has also led these emirates to attain the world’s highest per capita carbon footprint. To address this problem Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai seem to have formulated policies with regard to sustainable urbanisation and adopted strong branding strategies to promote them internally and externally. In this paper we examine which steps have been taken to substantiate their claims to sustainable urbanisation, in branding as well as in actions taken towards implementation. We find that all three have been very active in branding their sustainable urbanisation policies, through visions and policy frameworks as well as prestigious development projects, but that the former is substantially more impressive than the latter. Results also show there is a difference between Abu Dhabi and Qatar on the one hand, and Dubai on the other. Dubai has large number of small ‘free economic zones’, academic institutions for developing a knowledge economy, and smart and/or sustainable urban neighbourhoods, while Qatar and Abu Dhabi have a small number of very large ones. From the three, it is currently Dubai which has taken the lead in this development, largely completing its industrial transition with vast economic diversification and urban expansion. However, across the board this has had little effect on its ecological footprint.


2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Herb

Not long ago, two safe generalizations could be made about the Gulf monarchies: ruling families dominated their politics, and oil dominated their economies. In recent years that has begun to change. In Kuwait the parliament challenges the political predominance of the ruling family. Meanwhile, Dubai and, increasingly, the other emirates of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have made real progress in diversifying their economies away from oil—at least until the recent economic crisis. Yet political liberalization and economic diversification have not gone hand in hand: Kuwait's economy remains dependent on oil, and the United Arab Emirates remains resolutely authoritarian. This is no accident. Kuwait's high level of political participation encourages its dependence on oil while the UAE's economic diversification requires a lack of political participation by citizens. The reasons for this are specific to the peculiar political economy of these labor markets: in these richest of rentier-states, there is little need for the class compromise between capitalists and workers on which capitalist democracy usually rests.


2012 ◽  
Vol 127 (4) ◽  
pp. 1707-1754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Burgess ◽  
Matthew Hansen ◽  
Benjamin A. Olken ◽  
Peter Potapov ◽  
Stefanie Sieber

Abstract Tropical deforestation accounts for almost one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions and threatens the world’s most diverse ecosystems. Much of this deforestation is driven by illegal logging. We use novel satellite data that tracks annual deforestation across eight years of Indonesian institutional change to examine how local officials’ incentives affect deforestation. Increases in the number of political jurisdictions lead to increased deforestation and lower timber prices, consistent with Cournot competition between jurisdictions. Illegal logging and local oil and gas rents are short-run substitutes, but this effect disappears over time with political turnover. The results illustrate how local officials’ incentives affect deforestation and show how standard economic theories can explain illegal behavior.


2013 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 20-29
Author(s):  
Andrzej Guzowski

Many Middle Eastern countries, especially the ones in Arabian Peninsula, are well-known for being rich with oil and gas. While it could be considered a blessing by many, it is becoming more and more apparent that the abundance of natural resources in the region is a double-edged sword and a form of a natural resource trap. Many countries have become so-called “rentier states”, funding their operations and their very structures by renting their resources to external actors. While it may seem like a profitable political move at first, said overreliance conserved the structure of economies in the Middle Eastern, never forcing the countries to develop effectively, thus making most of the produced goods, other than oil and gas, uncompetitive on the international market. Long term, it may prove disastrous for the Middle East as eventually the resources are going to get exhausted and said countries will be left with nothing but an economic structure unadjusted to the 21stcentury.


Author(s):  
Courtney Freer

This chapter comprises an extended, substantive conclusion to take into account individual country experiences and to compare these countries along common themes. In this final chapter, a new model is elucidated for understanding how Muslim Brotherhood movements influence government policies in the super-rentier states, which is called rentier Islamism. The chapter reprises the book’s critique of rentier state theory for its failure to appreciate the resiliency of ideological opposition to oil-wealthy regimes, who have tried various tactics to contain and suppress Islamism. The chapter concludes by predicting the lasting influence of the Muslim Brotherhood as exercising both political and cultural influence within the Gulf.


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