scholarly journals Popularity equilibrium: Testing a general theory of local campaign effectiveness

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Fieldhouse ◽  
Justin Fisher ◽  
David Cutts
Keyword(s):  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Measuring Campaign ◽  
Local Candidate ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Electoral Performance

Parties and candidates target campaign resources where they are most likely to pay electoral dividends. At the individual level it has been shown that some individuals are more likely to be persuaded by campaign contacts than others. In a parallel tradition of measuring campaign effectiveness at the macro level, previous research has demonstrated that local candidate campaign effort measured is significantly related to electoral performance. However, while there is evidence suggestive of macro level effects, there is little systematic evidence about the district level conditions under which campaign efforts are most productive. Drawing on extensive data across six UK general elections between 1992 and 2015, we advance a theory of local campaign efficacy and test a general model of popularity equilibrium. We demonstrate that there is a curvilinear relationship between the underlying level of party support in an electoral district and the intensity of the district-level campaign – there is a ‘sweet-spot’ for maximizing the returns of campaign effort.

War Deaths Can Increase Support for Incumbents

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Peter John Loewen ◽  
Daniel Rubenson
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
District Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Effects Of War

Abstract War comes with terrible costs both in terms of money and lives. Do voters punish incumbents for these costs? Much of the existing literature on the effects of war deaths on public opinion toward incumbents and their war efforts suggests that the answer is yes. We test this proposition on data from a non-US case: Canada's war in Afghanistan. We estimate models of the effect of local war deaths on incumbent support using individual-level panel data from the 2006, 2008 and 2011 Canadian Election Studies and aggregate district-level data from the 2008 and 2011 general elections. In none of our models do we find support for the conclusion that war deaths decrease support for candidates of the governing party. Instead, we find evidence at both the individual and district levels that support for Conservative party candidates is higher in districts that experienced war deaths.

The Innovators

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara J. Risman
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
Gender Stereotypes ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Gender Expectations ◽  
Personal Lives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Gendered Expectations ◽  
Level Of Analysis

This chapter introduces the innovators and provides a portrait of them. The chapter analyzes these innovators at the individual, interactional, and macro level of the gender structure. The chapter begins at the individual level of analysis because these young people emphasize how they challenge gender by rejecting requirements to restrict their personal activities, goals, and personalities to femininity or masculinity. They refuse to live within gender stereotypes. These Millennials do not seem driven by their feminist ideological beliefs, although they do have them. Their worldviews are more taken for granted than central to their stories. Nor are they consistently challenging gender expectations for others, although they often ignore the gender expectations they face themselves. They innovate primarily in their personal lives, although they do reject gendered expectations at the interactional level and hold feminist ideological beliefs about gender equality.

The True Believers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara J. Risman
Keyword(s):  
Gender Differences ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Gender Ideology ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Gender Differentiation ◽  
The World ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Gendered Expectations

This is the first data chapter. In this chapter, respondents who are described as true believers in the gender structure, and essentialist gender differences are introduced and their interviews analyzed. They are true believers because, at the macro level, they believe in a gender ideology where women and men should be different and accept rules and requirements that enforce gender differentiation and even sex segregation in social life. In addition, at the interactional level, these Millennials report having been shaped by their parent’s traditional expectations and they similarly feel justified to impose gendered expectations on those in their own social networks. At the individual level, they have internalized masculinity or femininity, and embody it in how they present themselves to the world. They try hard to “do gender” traditionally.

scholarly journals The Conflicting Impact of COVID-19’s Health and Economic Crises on Helping

2020 ◽  
pp. 105960112096870
Author(s):  
Mindy K. Shoss ◽  
Kristin A. Horan ◽  
Michael DiStaso ◽  
Chelsea A. LeNoble ◽  
Anthony Naranjo
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Event System ◽  
Work Hour ◽  
The Individual

Helping behaviors are considered critical for business and societal recovery in light of economic crises and natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic that has both economic and health disaster elements. However, because the current COVID-19 pandemic has both of these elements, it is unclear how helping may be impacted. Economic crisis research suggests that such events are associated with less helping, whereas disaster research suggests that such events are associated with greater helping. We pair the event system theory (Morgeson, F. P., Mitchell, T. R., & Liu, D. (2015). Event system theory: An event-oriented approach to the organizational sciences. Academy of Management Review, 40(4), 515-537) with these two logics (economic downturn and disaster) to suggest that health and economic threats within the COVID-19 pandemic operate with potentially opposing forces on helping-related outcomes. To test these ideas at a macro-level, we examined internet search volume for recession, COVID-19, and interest in helping. At a micro-level, we examined the relationships between work- hour insecurity and perceived job-related COVID-19 risk—two salient COVID-19-related economic and health threats—and helping customers and coworkers. Consistent with economic crisis logic, macro-level concern about recession was negatively associated with interest in helping. Moreover, at the individual level, work-hour insecurity negatively predicted helping coworkers. Consistent with disaster logic, at the individual level, perceived job-related COVID-19 threat was positively associated with helping coworkers and negatively associated with helping customers. These findings suggest that the specific feature of the COVID-19 event system (economic versus health) and the target (organizational insiders versus outsiders) matter for shaping helping behavior. These findings have implications for helping during crises that involve economic and/or disaster elements.

scholarly journals Factors influencing time allocation of sport event volunteers

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirstin Hallmann ◽  
Paul Downward ◽  
Geoff Dickson
Keyword(s):  
Time Allocation ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Sport Event ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Sport Events ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Sport Event Volunteers

Purpose Given the increasing demands placed on a sport event workforce in servicing the needs of spectators, to attract and recruit volunteers to the industry, it is important for sport event managers to know what is driving how much time volunteers allocate to an event. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the individual and macro-level factors influencing the allocation of time to volunteer at sport events. Design/methodology/approach Survey data were collected from volunteers at 25 sport events (n=2,303). Multi-level modelling was used to identify common effects controlling for event differences. Findings Male gender significantly influences time allocated to an event at the individual level. At the macro-level, the number of local inhabitants has a significant negative effect whereas the status of an international event and duration contribute positively to time allocation. Research limitations/implications The results provide clear evidence that macro-level variables can stimulate interest in event volunteering opportunities. Originality/value This paper uses a multi-level approach to assess the influence of micro- and macro-level variables on time allocation by sport event volunteers. Using this approach, event heterogeneity can be controlled.

scholarly journals Religiousness and existential insecurity: A cross-national comparative analysis on the macro- and micro-level

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz Höllinger ◽  
Johanna Muckenhuber
Keyword(s):  
Final Section ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Life Conditions ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Level Analysis ◽  
Cross National

In Sacred and Secular (2011 [2004]) Norris and Inglehart argued that improvements in material living conditions and higher degrees of existential security lead to a decline in religiousness both on the macro-level of the comparison between countries and on the individual level. Since then, a number of studies have examined this relationship and confirmed the assumptions of the existential security thesis. This article revisits this thesis using data from the sixth wave of the World Values Survey (2010–2014). The multi-level analysis reveals two key results. Consistent with previous studies, a strong correlation was found between better life conditions and lower levels of religiousness on the macro-level. Individual life conditions and threatening experiences, however, have only a very small impact on religiousness. Possible explanations for the discrepancy between macro-level and micro-level results are discussed in the final section.

The Mobilizing Effect of Majority–Minority Districts on Latino Turnout

2004 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATT A. BARRETO ◽  
GARY M. SEGURA ◽  
NATHAN D. WOODS
Keyword(s):  
Southern California ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Hispanic Voters ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
The U.S

We inquire whether residence in majority–minority districts raises or lowers turnout among Latinos. We argue that the logic suggesting that majority–minority districts suppress turnout is flawed and hypothesize that the net effect is empowering. Further, we suggest that residing in multiple overlapping majority–minority districts—for state assemblies, senates, and the U.S. House—further enhances turnout. We test our hypotheses using individual-level turnout data for voters in five Southern California counties. Examining three general elections from 1996 to 2000, we demonstrate that residing in a majority-Latino district ultimately has a positive effect on the propensity of Latino voters to turn out, an effect that increases with the number of Latino districts in which the voter resides and is consistent across the individual offices in which a voter might be descriptively represented. In contrast, the probability that non-Hispanic voters turn out decreases as they are subject to increasing layers of majority-Latino districting.

scholarly journals Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The “Blue Shift” in California Elections

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110333
Author(s):  
Yimeng Li ◽  
Michelle Hyun ◽  
R. Michael Alvarez
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Blue Shift ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Administrative Records ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
American Elections ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

The counting of votes in contemporary American elections is usually not completed on Election Night. There has been an increasing tendency for vote shares to shift toward Democratic candidates after Election Day in general elections, in particular, in recent U.S. elections. Leveraging important snapshots of precinct-level election returns and precinct-level demographic and political composition from Orange County, California, we conduct the first full-fledged analysis of the potential drivers of vote share shifts. Using an original large-scale post-election survey and unique snapshots of individual-level administrative records, we also provide the first analysis of the characteristics of voters whose ballots were tallied later versus earlier in the process. Far from being anomalous, our results indicate that the shifts are consistent with underlying precinct voter compositions and the order of precinct and mail ballot processing at the individual level in accordance with election administration practices. We find the same driving forces in North Carolina and Colorado, and discuss the consequences of the “Blue Shift” for public concerns about election integrity as states push policy changes regarding access to voting by mail.

scholarly journals Neoliberalism and the ideological construction of equity beliefs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahrzad Goudarzi ◽  
Eric Knowles ◽  
Vivienne Badaan
Keyword(s):  
Distributive Justice ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Resource Distributions ◽  
Relationship Types ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Primary Basis

Researchers across disciplines, including psychology, have sought to understand how people evaluate the fairness of resource distributions. Equity, defined as proportionality of rewards to merit, has dominated the conceptualization of distributive justice in psychology, with some scholars casting it as the primary basis on which distributive decisions are made. The present paper acts as a corrective to this disproportionate emphasis on equity. Drawing on findings from different subfields, we argue that people possess a range of beliefs about how valued resources should be allocated—beliefs that vary systematically across developmental stages, relationship types, and societies. By reinvigorating notions of distributive justice put forth by the field’s pioneers, we further argue that prescriptive beliefs concerning resource allocation are ideological formations embedded in socioeconomic and historical contexts. Fairness beliefs at the micro-level are thus shaped by those beliefs’ macro-level instantiations. In a novel investigation of this process, we consider neoliberalism, the globally-dominant socioeconomic model of the past forty years. Using data from more than 160 countries, we uncover evidence that neoliberal economic structures shape equity based distributive beliefs at the individual level. We conclude by advocating an integrative approach to the study of distributive justice that bridges microand macro-level analyses.

Coleman’s Boat Revisited: Causal Sequences and the Micro-macro Link

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustav Ramström
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Macro Model ◽  
Empirical Social Science ◽  
The Individual

This article argues that empirical social scientists can be freed from having to account for “micro-to-macro transitions.” The article shows, in opposition to the (still) dominant perspective based on Coleman’s macro-micro-macro model, that no micro-macro transitions or mechanisms connect the individual level to the macro level in empirical social science. Rather, when considering that social macro entities and properties are micro manifest rather than macro manifest, it becomes clear that the micro-macro move in empirical social science is purely conceptual or analytical.

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