scholarly journals Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 237802312199401
Author(s):  
Mathew E. Hauer ◽  
Alexis R. Santos-Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Differential Privacy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
County Level ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Population Counts ◽  
Privacy Budget ◽  
The U.S

Scholars rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance because of the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts, the principal denominators for calculating age-specific mortality rates, will be subject to noise infusion in the United States with the 2020 census through a disclosure avoidance system based on differential privacy. Using empirical COVID-19 mortality curves, the authors show that differential privacy will introduce substantial distortion in COVID-19 mortality rates, sometimes causing mortality rates to exceed 100 percent, hindering our ability to understand the pandemic. This distortion is particularly large for population groupings with fewer than 1,000 persons: 40 percent of all county-level age-sex groupings and 60 percent of race groupings. The U.S. Census Bureau should consider a larger privacy budget, and data users should consider pooling data to minimize differential privacy’s distortion.

scholarly journals Differential privacy in the 2020 Census will distort COVID-19 rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hauer ◽  
Alexis R Santos-Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Differential Privacy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Us Census ◽  
Population Counts

Scientists and policy makers rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance due to the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts – the principal denominators for calculating age-specific mortality rates – will be subject to noise infusion in the United States with the 2020 Census via a disclosure avoidance system based on differential privacy. Using COVID-19 mortality curves from the CDC, we show that differential privacy will introduce substantial distortion in COVID-19 mortality rates – sometimes causing mortality rates to exceed 100\% -- hindering our ability to understand the pandemic. This distortion is particularly large for population groupings with fewer than 1000 persons – 40\% of all county-level age-sex groupings and 60\% of race groupings. The US Census Bureau should consider a larger privacy budget and data users should consider pooling data to increase population sizes to minimize differential privacy’s distortion.

Disproportionately Overrepresented: Women in Local Elected Offices

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ethan M. Bernick ◽  
Brianne Heidbreder
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gender Norms ◽  
The United States ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
National Association ◽  
County Level ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The U.S

This research examines the position of county clerk, where women are numerically disproportionately over-represented. Using data collected from the National Association of Counties and the U.S. Census Bureau, the models estimate the correlation between the county clerk’s sex and county-level demographic, social, and political factors with maximum likelihood logit estimates. This research suggests that while women are better represented in the office of county clerk across the United States, when compared to other elective offices, this representation may be because this office is not seen as attractive to men and its responsibilities fit within the construct of traditional gender norms.

scholarly journals Racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality are driven by unequal infection risks.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon Zelner ◽  
Rob Trangucci ◽  
Ramya Naraharisetti ◽  
Alex Cao ◽  
Ryan Malosh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Racial Disparities ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Bayesian Regression ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The U.S

Background. As of August 5, 2020, there were more than 4.8M confirmed and probable cases and 159K deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, with these numbers undoubtedly reflecting a significant underestimate of the true toll. Geographic, racial-ethnic, age and socioeconomic disparities in exposure and mortality are key features of the first and second wave of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic. Methods. We used individual-level COVID-19 incidence and mortality data from the U.S. state of Michigan to estimate age-specific incidence and mortality rates by race/ethnic group. Data were analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian regression models, and model results were validated using posterior predictive checks. Findings. In crude and age-standardized analyses we found rates of incidence and mortality more than twice as high than Whites for all groups other than Native Americans. Of these, Blacks experienced the greatest burden of confirmed and probable COVID-19 infection (Age- standardized incidence = 1,644/100,000 population) and mortality (age-standardized mortality rate 251/100,000). These rates reflect large disparities, as Blacks experienced age-standardized incidence and mortality rates 5.6 (95% CI = 5.5, 5.7) and 6.9 (6.5, 7.3) times higher than Whites, respectively. We also found that the bulk of the disparity in mortality between Blacks and Whites is driven by dramatically higher rates of COVID-19 infection across all age groups, particularly among older adults, rather than age-specific variation in case-fatality rates. Interpretation. This work suggests that well-documented racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality in hard-hit settings, such as the U.S. state of Michigan, are driven primarily by variation in household, community and workplace exposure rather than case-fatality rates. Funding. This work was supported by a COVID-PODS grant from the Michigan Institute for Data Science (MIDAS) at the University of Michigan. The funding source had no role in the preparation of this manuscript.

scholarly journals Lifestyle Effects on the Risk of Transmission of COVID-19 in the United States: Evaluation of Market Segmentation Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4826
Author(s):  
Esra Ozdenerol ◽  
Jacob Seboly
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
County Level ◽  
Household Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

The aim of this study was to associate lifestyle characteristics with COVID-19 infection and mortality rates at the U.S. county level and sequentially map the impact of COVID-19 on different lifestyle segments. We used analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical testing to determine whether there is any correlation between COVID-19 infection and mortality rates and lifestyles. We used ESRI Tapestry LifeModes data that are collected at the U.S. household level through geodemographic segmentation typically used for marketing purposes to identify consumers’ lifestyles and preferences. According to the ANOVA analysis, a significant association between COVID-19 deaths and LifeModes emerged on 1 April 2020 and was sustained until 30 June 2020. Analysis of means (ANOM) was also performed to determine which LifeModes have incidence rates that are significantly above/below the overall mean incidence rate. We sequentially mapped and graphically illustrated when and where each LifeMode had above/below average risk for COVID-19 infection/death on specific dates. A strong northwest-to-south and northeast-to-south gradient of COVID-19 incidence was identified, facilitating an empirical classification of the United States into several epidemic subregions based on household lifestyle characteristics. Our approach correlating lifestyle characteristics to COVID-19 infection and mortality rate at the U.S. county level provided unique insights into where and when COVID-19 impacted different households. The results suggest that prevention and control policies can be implemented to those specific households exhibiting spatial and temporal pattern of high risk.

scholarly journals Changes in Census Data Will Affect Our Understanding of Infant Health

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 237802312110236
Author(s):  
Alexis R. Santos-Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Infant Health ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Differential Privacy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Health Statistics ◽  
Health Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

Descriptions of the effect of the implementation of a new disclosure avoidance system (DAS), which relies on differential privacy, emphasize the impact of our understanding of contemporary social and health dynamics. However, focusing on overall population may obscure important changes in subpopulation indicators such as age-specific rates resulting from this implementation. The author provides a visualization that compares infant mortality rates calculated using 2009–2011 county-level average death counts and denominators derived from the traditional and proposed DASs. Death counts come from the National Center for Health Statistics and denominators come from the first U.S. Census Bureau demonstration products. These visualizations indicate that infant mortality rates produced using the proposed DAS are different from those produced using the traditional methods, with higher variation observed for nonmetropolitan counties and areas with smaller populations. These findings suggest that the proposed DAS will hinder our ability to understand contemporary health dynamics in the United States.

scholarly journals Modeling County-Level Spatio-Temporal Mortality Rates Using Dynamic Linear Models

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Zoe Gibbs ◽  
Chris Groendyke ◽  
Brian Hartman ◽  
Robert Richardson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Mortality Improvement

The lifestyles and backgrounds of individuals across the United States differ widely. Some of these differences are easily measurable (ethnicity, age, income, etc.) while others are not (stress levels, empathy, diet, exercise, etc.). Though every person is unique, individuals living closer together likely have more similar lifestyles than individuals living hundreds of miles apart. Because lifestyle and environmental factors contribute to mortality, spatial correlation may be an important feature in mortality modeling. However, many of the current mortality models fail to account for spatial relationships. This paper introduces spatio-temporal trends into traditional mortality modeling using Bayesian hierarchical models with conditional auto-regressive (CAR) priors. We show that these priors, commonly used for areal data, are appropriate for modeling county-level spatial trends in mortality data covering the contiguous United States. We find that mortality rates of neighboring counties are highly correlated. Additionally, we find that mortality improvement or deterioration trends between neighboring counties are also highly correlated.

scholarly journals Association between county level cannabis dispensary counts and opioid related mortality rates in the United States: panel data study

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. m4957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greta Hsu ◽  
Balázs Kovács
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
County Level ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Synthetic Opioids ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Objective To examine county level associations between the prevalence of medical and recreational cannabis stores (referred to as dispensaries) and opioid related mortality rates. Design Panel regression methods. Setting 812 counties in the United States in the 23 states that allowed legal forms of cannabis dispensaries to operate by the end of 2017. Participants The study used US mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention combined with US census data and data from Weedmaps.com on storefront dispensary operations. Data were analyzed at the county level by using panel regression methods. Main outcome measure The main outcome measures were the log transformed, age adjusted mortality rates associated with all opioid types combined, and with subcategories of prescription opioids, heroin, and synthetic opioids other than methadone. The associations of medical dispensary and recreational dispensary counts with age adjusted mortality rates were also analyzed. Results County level dispensary count (natural logarithm) is negatively related to the log transformed, age adjusted mortality rate associated with all opioid types (β=−0.17, 95% confidence interval −0.23 to −0.11). According to this estimate, an increase from one to two storefront dispensaries in a county is associated with an estimated 17% reduction in all opioid related mortality rates. Dispensary count has a particularly strong negative association with deaths caused by synthetic opioids other than methadone (β=−0.21, 95% confidence interval −0.27 to −0.14), with an estimated 21% reduction in mortality rates associated with an increase from one to two dispensaries. Similar associations were found for medical versus recreational storefront dispensary counts on synthetic (non-methadone) opioid related mortality rates. Conclusions Higher medical and recreational storefront dispensary counts are associated with reduced opioid related death rates, particularly deaths associated with synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. While the associations documented cannot be assumed to be causal, they suggest a potential association between increased prevalence of medical and recreational cannabis dispensaries and reduced opioid related mortality rates. This study highlights the importance of considering the complex supply side of related drug markets and how this shapes opioid use and misuse.

scholarly journals Outcomes for Children and Adolescents With Cancer: Challenges for the Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (15) ◽  
pp. 2625-2634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm A. Smith ◽  
Nita L. Seibel ◽  
Sean F. Altekruse ◽  
Lynn A.G. Ries ◽  
Danielle L. Melbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Childhood Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Lymphoblastic Leukemia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Childhood Cancers ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This report provides an overview of current childhood cancer statistics to facilitate analysis of the impact of past research discoveries on outcome and provide essential information for prioritizing future research directions. Methods Incidence and survival data for childhood cancers came from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 9 (SEER 9) registries, and mortality data were based on deaths in the United States that were reported by states to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by underlying cause. Results Childhood cancer incidence rates increased significantly from 1975 through 2006, with increasing rates for acute lymphoblastic leukemia being most notable. Childhood cancer mortality rates declined by more than 50% between 1975 and 2006. For leukemias and lymphomas, significantly decreasing mortality rates were observed throughout the 32-year period, though the rate of decline slowed somewhat after 1998. For remaining childhood cancers, significantly decreasing mortality rates were observed from 1975 to 1996, with stable rates from 1996 through 2006. Increased survival rates were observed for all categories of childhood cancers studied, with the extent and temporal pace of the increases varying by diagnosis. Conclusion When 1975 age-specific death rates for children are used as a baseline, approximately 38,000 childhood malignant cancer deaths were averted in the United States from 1975 through 2006 as a result of more effective treatments identified and applied during this period. Continued success in reducing childhood cancer mortality will require new treatment paradigms building on an increased understanding of the molecular processes that promote growth and survival of specific childhood cancers.

scholarly journals Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes ◽  
Neeraj Kaushal ◽  
Ashley N. Muchow
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractUsing county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.

Abstract P261: Intensive Systolic Blood Pressure Lowering Will Prevent Over 100,000 Deaths Annually

Hypertension ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 68 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly Kramer ◽  
Adam Bress ◽  
Srinivasan Beddhu ◽  
Paul Muntner ◽  
Richard S Cooper
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Systolic Blood Pressure ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Blood Pressure Lowering ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Pressure Lowering ◽  
Annual Mortality ◽  
The U.S

Background: The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) trial randomized 9,361 adults aged ≥50 years at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk without diabetes or stroke to intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering (≤120 mmHg) or standard SBP lowering (≤140 mmHg). After a median follow up of 3.26 years, all-cause mortality was 27% (95% CI 40%, 10%) lower with intensive SBP lowering. We estimated the potential number of prevented deaths with intensive SBP lowering in the U.S. population meeting SPRINT criteria. Methods: SPRINT eligibility criteria were applied to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2006, a representative survey of the U.S. population, linked with the mortality data through December 2011. Eligibility included (1) age ≥50 years with (2) SBP 130-180 mmHg depending on number of antihypertensive classes being taken, and (3) presence of ≥1 CVD risk conditions (history of coronary heart disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 20 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , 10-year Framingham risk score ≥15%, or age ≥75 years). Adults with diabetes, stroke history, >1 g/day proteinuria, heart failure, on dialysis, or eGFR<20 ml/min/1.73m 2 were excluded. Annual mortality rates for adults meeting SPRINT criteria were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods and the expected reduction in mortality rates with intensive SBP lowering in SPRINT was used to determine the number of potential deaths prevented. Analyses accounted for the complex survey design. Results: An estimated 18.1 million U.S. adults met SPRINT criteria with 7.4 million taking blood pressure lowering medications. The mean age was 68.6 years and 83.2% and 7.4% were non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black, respectively. The annual mortality rate was 2.2% (95% CI 1.9%, 2.5%) and intensive SBP lowering was projected to prevent 107,453 deaths per year (95% CI 45,374 to 139,490). Among adults with SBP ≥145 mmHg, the annual mortality rate was 2.5% (95% CI 2.1%, 3.0%) and intensive SBP lowering was projected to prevent 60,908 deaths per year (95% CI 26, 455 to 76, 792). Conclusions: We project intensive SBP lowering could prevent over 100,000 deaths per year of intensive treatment.

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