scholarly journals Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Chun Chong ◽  
Benny Chung Ying Zee
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Pandemic Virus ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals What serosurveillance studies tell us about the 2009 influenza pandemic

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Gary K Dowse ◽  
Ian Barr
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Antigenic Drift ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Pandemic H1n1 ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Pandemic Virus ◽  
The Impact

Surveillance of the impact of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza during its initial seasons in both hemispheres relied on routinely available indicators, including numbers and rates of laboratory-detected cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths, along with monitoring of influenza-like illness (ILI) from primary care sentinel surveillance systems. Estimates of the clinical attack rate and the case fatality ratio were imperfect. Understanding of the pathogenicity of the pandemic virus and prediction of the impact in subsequent seasons was hindered by a lack of information on actual infection rates in the population. Results of a number of serosurveys conducted in Australia and overseas countries have now become available, revealing that the arrival of the pandemic virus in modern urbanised and non-immune populations resulted in relatively similar infection rates in both the southern and northern hemispheres. Around 30?50% of children and teenagers were infected during the first pandemic season, with lower rates, around 10?20%, in young and middle-aged adults, and very few infections in older adults. There were significant numbers of mild or asymptomatic infections, and case fatality and hospitalisation ratios were much lower than those contemplated in pandemic plans. Many populations, including Australia, achieved a significant level of herd immunity during the first wave, and community susceptibility was further reduced by vaccination programs, although coverage was lower than expected. In the absence of significant antigenic drift or changes in virulence, the impact of the pandemic H1N1 virus should continue to decline in future influenza seasons.

scholarly journals Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Chun Chang ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Yu-An Li ◽  
Cheng-Sheng Lee ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. Methods In collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we characterized changes in movement patterns in Taiwan since February 2020, and built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data to identify the high risk areas of disease spread and assess the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. Results We found that mobility changed with the number of local cases in Taiwan in the past few months. For each city, we identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. We showed that the risk of an outbreak in Taiwan is enhanced if initial infections occur around holidays. Intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on the risk of an outbreak than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Conclusions To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook’s aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. We developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions and shows the spatial spread of the disease and the impact of intercity and intracity travel reduction under different initial conditions. Our results can be used readily if local transmission occurs in Taiwan after relaxation of border control, providing important insights into future disease surveillance and policies for travel restrictions.

DEATH AND THE MODERN EMPIRE: THE 1918–19 INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC IN INDIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 181-200
Author(s):  
David Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Influenza Epidemic ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Military Recruitment ◽  
Visual Evidence ◽  
Private Correspondence ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Great War

ABSTRACTIn India the 1918–19 influenza pandemic cost at least twelve million lives, more than in any other country; it caused widespread suffering and disrupted the economy and infrastructure. Yet, despite this, and in contrast to the growing literature on recovering the ‘forgotten’ pandemic in other countries, remarkably little was recorded about the epidemic in India at the time or has appeared in the subsequent historiography. An absence of visual evidence is indicative of a more general paucity of contemporary material and first-hand testimony. In seeking to explain this absence, it is argued that, while India was exposed to influenza as a global event and to the effects of its involvement in the Great War, the influenza episode needs to be more fully understood in terms of local conditions. The impact of the disease was overshadowed by the prior encounter with bubonic plague, by military recruitment and the war, and by food shortages and price rises that pushed India to the brink of famine. Subsumed within a dominant narrative of political unrest and economic discontent, the epidemic found scant expression in official documentation, public debate and/or even private correspondence.

scholarly journals How to Better Manage Tourism on Pandemic-Times? Moving Forward on a Discussion We Should Have Had Before the 2020 Crisis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Sinay ◽  
Maria Cristina Fogliatti de Sinay
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Scholarly Community ◽  
Pandemic Virus ◽  
Funding Agencies ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Taking advantage of tourists’ intensive flow, the SARS-CoV-2 virus rapidly spread causing thousands of deaths globally. Trying to contain the already pandemic virus, government travel restrictions were suddenly imposed. Consequently, the tourism industry, which at that moment employed one in ten workers globally, suddenly collapsed. Hundreds of thousands of workers immediately lost their income. Flights were cancelled, and thousands of tourists were stuck abroad with no means to return to their home countries. The gravity of the situation raised the question of whether there was scholarly knowledge that could have helped manage tourism during the current pandemic. To answer this question, a methodical literature review was performed, allowing for up to 900 publications to be analysed. Keywords used were pandemic, tourism, tourist and travel. Based on this process, 63 publications were selected for further analysis. Among these, less than 5% were focused on the tourism side of the problem. As such, this research concludes that, by the time the novel coronavirus emerged, there was, virtually, no scholarly knowledge on how to manage tourism during pandemic times so as to avoid chaos, and that the scholarly community studying related issues is very small. Moving forward, this article recommends that research funding agencies and universities encourage the sound development of this area of knowledge. Aspects that should be investigated include when, how and by whom should tourism be halted, as well as the feasibility of a Tourism World Fund for supporting related costs.

scholarly journals UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Slow Virus ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Main Barrier ◽  
The Impact

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF COVID 19 ON THE PERFORMANCE OF TOURISM INDUSTRY.A CRITICAL LITERATURE REVIEW

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-28
Author(s):  
John Githii
Keyword(s):  
Management Plan ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Destination Image ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
The People ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Retirement Funds ◽  
International Airlines ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: Among all segments in the economy, tourism is one of the main sectors which impact the economy as many governments impose travel restrictions, travel bans, shutting down airports, and mass passenger cancellations The pandemic has forced people to use their retirement funds early as they needed to make a living. The general objective of the study was to examine effect of Covid 19 on the performance of tourism industry. Methodology: The paper used a desk study review methodology where relevant empirical literature was reviewed to identify main themes and to extract knowledge gaps. Findings: The study concluded that the Coronavirus puts a furrow on the tourism industry. Many domestic and international Airlines Companies are forced to cancel their flights from and to other countries due to insufficient tourist as the people are becoming panicked for the spread of this harmful virus. Revenues from the tourist industries has  got a bit lowered as no individuals are traveling to visit tourist destinations as all flights are being canceled . It has also showcased the ultimate harm it created on the economy of the country and the globe at the same time. It is being thought that the impact will continue for some more time and that is of much more concern in recent time Recommendations: The study recommends that tourism industry stakeholders should be ready for post-corona environment. There are different scenarios on when the industry will recover, what new challenges and standards will be imposed, who are more likely to travel which products and services will disappear and transform. Hence the stakeholders should be able to create different action plans for each scenario to be put into action after recovery. Destination image shall also be re-positioned based on safety, health and cleanliness. All stakeholders should also make sure they have a risk and crises management plan and a strong financial structure to improve their resilience in the future.

scholarly journals The impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the institutional change in developing countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 587-601
Author(s):  
Tomasz Legiędź
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Institutional Change ◽  
Institutional Economics ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
New Institutional Economics ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Current Events ◽  
Institutional System ◽  
The Impact

Motivation: The Covid-19 pandemic is having a critical impact on economies, especially in developing countries. Such a serious external shock affects the distribution of economic rents, thus leading to potentially large institutional changes. Naturally, in the short term we are dealing with an economic crisis and a restriction of civil liberties in both autocratic and democratic countries, however, it is not known what the dynamics of institutional changes will be in the longer run. Aim: The main purpose of the article is to answer if the Covid-19 pandemic becomes a turning point that will determine the institutional system in developing countries for the next few decades. The first part of the article outlines the theory of institutional change, with particular emphasis on the role of external shocks. The next section presents studies on the socioeconomic impact of two major epidemics: The Black Death and the Great Influenza Pandemic. The third part conducts an assessment as to what extent the current pandemic may affect institutions in developing countries, by reference to the example of two countries: Tunisia and Cambodia. The analysis is conducted from the perspective of the new institutional economics. Results: If we look at the experiences from previous pandemics, current events and refer to the literature on the theory of institutional change, we can conclude that significant institutional changes caused by Covid-19 are unlikely. The process of institutional change is characterized by a specific complexity and changing dynamics. Nonetheless, it is the internal factors, reflecting the actions of people trying to maximize the benefits, which are the main cause of change in an institutional system. Therefore, the Covid-19 pandemic is more likely to strengthen the endogeneity of the process of institutional change, rather than change its course.

scholarly journals Correction to: Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in early 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang-Chun Kwok ◽  
Chun-Ka Wong ◽  
Ting-Fung Ma ◽  
Ka-Wai Ho ◽  
Louis Wai-Tong Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Effects of the reduction of aircraft noise emission due to the travel restriction during the COVID-19 pandemic at residential areas around Tan Son Nhat Airport

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 (1) ◽  
pp. 5114-5124
Author(s):  
Thulan Nguyen ◽  
Tran Thi Hong Nhung Nguyen ◽  
Bach Lien Trieu ◽  
Makoto Morinaga ◽  
Yasuhiro Hiraguri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aircraft Noise ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Noise Levels ◽  
Noise Emission ◽  
Acoustic Environment ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Travel Restriction

The travel restrictions caused by the epidemic outbreak in early 2020 worldwide have caused many changes in all aspects of life, especially in the acoustic environment. This study examines the impact of this environmental change at Tan Son Nhat International Airport (TSN), the largest airport in Vietnam, by comparing the situations before and after the airport stopped operating all international flights in March 2020. The after-the-change survey was conducted in 2 phases, June and September 2020, three months and six months after the stop decision. The number of flights observed in August 2019 was 728; this number is 413 and 299 for the two surveys in 2020. The range of noise levels estimated for 12 sites around TSN decreased from 63-81 dB in 2019 to 32-67 dB in June 2020 and 33-69 dB in September 2020. At the same aircraft noise level, the percentage of highly annoyed (% HA) and the percentage of insomnia (%ISM) in the 2020 survey are higher than those in the 2019 survey. The comparison results of reaction to noise before and after the TSN's noise change indicated an increase in negative responses to noise might happen in the increased noise and reduced noise situation.

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