ColotypeR: A tool to classify colon cancers by consensus molecular subtype and subtype-specific risk of recurrence.
632 Background: Colon cancer is highly heterogeneous in prognosis and response to treatment. The consensus molecular subtypes (CMS1-4, and mixed) partition colon cancers into distinct groups. CMS4 tumors, a mesenchymal subtype, have the worst prognosis and poor response to standard chemotherapies. There is a critical need for accurate molecular subtyping, and subtype-specific management. Methods: Affymetrix microarrays colon cancer datasets (N = 813; GSE39582, GSE14333) were partitioned into training (AT; N = 370) and validation sets (AV; N = 443) balanced for clinical traits. A novel multistate gene methodology was used to predict CMS, and prognosticate subtype-specific relapse-free survival (RFS) in the training set. Accuracy of CMS prediction and prognostic significance was validated in the AV and TCGA colon cancer (COAD; N = 458) sets. Results: In the training set, a 20-gene panel (ColotypeR-CMS) predicts CMS subtype. Mean accuracy for CMS1-4 prediction was 0.87 in AV and 0.81 in COAD. In AV, 5-year RFS is 0.52 (95%CI 0.43 – 0.63) in the predicted CMS4, and 0.70 (95%CI 0.65 – 0.77) in the non-CMS4 samples. The risk of relapse for non-CMS4 samples was refined by a genomic score (ColotypeR-Risk) computed using expression of 25 genes in the training set. ColotypeR-Risk was prognostic of RFS (p = 0.0004) among the AV non-CMS4 samples, and also prognostic (p = 0.0001) among the stage II non-CMS4 AV samples not treated with chemotherapy. The prognostic significance of ColotypeR-Risk among non-CMS4 samples is independent of tumor location (right or left) and CMS subtype (CMS1-3 or mixed). ColotypeR-Risk was also prognostic of RFS in non-CMS4 samples in COAD (p = 0.005). Conclusions: ColotypeR identifies the consensus molecular subtypes (CMS1, CMS2, CMS3, CMS4, or mixed), and assesses subtype-specific risk of recurrence of colon cancer. ColotypeR identifies prognostic risk and molecular features that could help guide the management of colon cancer patients.