Implementasi Probability Impact Matriks (PIM) Untuk Mengidentifikasi Kemungkinan dan Dampak Risiko Proyek

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47
Author(s):  
Sufa'atin Sufa'atin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Construction ◽  
Index Terms ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

One of the obstacles in project construction is that the project is experiencing delays. The delay is influenced by several factors including the absence of risk recording, the unavoidability of the opportunities and the impact of risks that arise in the project and its handling, and the neglected risks that may disrupt the project. Project risk is the cumulative effect of an uncertain event opportunity, which affects the project objectives. Several methods can be used to handle the occurrence of project risk, one of the methods used to perform a risk assessment is the Probability Impact Matrix (PIM). PIM is a method that can be used to analyze risk qualitatively based on probability and its impact. By using the PIM method, some of the opportunities and impacts of risks that may arise in the project can be identified. In addition, the PIM method can minimize the risks that arise in the project and quickly resolve the risks. Index Terms— Project, Risk, PIM, Possibility, Impact

Conventional Project Risk Management (PRM) Methodologies

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-52
Author(s):  
Yuri G. Raydugin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Systematic Error ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Assessment Matrix ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Risk Breakdown Structure

Overview of the conventional PRM methodology is based on the introduction of a PRM system that comprises a PRM context, a PRM process, and PRM tools. Typical PRM process steps to identify, address, assess, monitor, etc risks are reviewed to comply with PRM context (i.e. features and challenges of a project). Main sorts of uncertainties related to risks as possible impacts on project objectives—uncertainties of identification, manageability, assessments of impacts and probabilities, and favourability—are discussed. Key PRM tools to support the PRM context and the process—a PRM plan, a bowtie diagram, a risk breakdown structure (RBS), a risk assessment matrix (RAM), and a risk register—are introduced. A role of psychological and organizational bias as a systematic error in the PRM process is elaborated.

scholarly journals Enterprise’s Risk Assessment Of Complex Construction Projects

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 63-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Konior
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Mathematical Statistic ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Complex Construction ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology

AbstractThe purpose of this article is to present the preparation of Project Risk Assessment Methodology and its mitigation in complex construction projects. The main text provides a summary of the approach, the method used and the findings. The conclusions have been drawn that the proper tools for quantifying risks have to be based on the criteria specific for mathematical statistic and probability or at least fuzziness. Function, which makes possible to categorize any risks into one of the five categories, is a combination of probability and the impact on one of the items: people and their safety or budget, cost, schedule and planning or quality and performance. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Designing Risk Qualitative Assessment on Fiber Optic Instalation Project in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Pratami
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fiber Optic ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Quality And Safety ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Cost Impact ◽  
Implementation Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Cost

A project always has risks that can lead to project failure. In the project, a risk analysis is required to provide an evaluation for the project to proceed as planned. In the event of inadequate planning and ineffective control, it will result in irregularities identified as a risk to the project. This study aims to analyze the qualitative risk on Fiber Optic Installaion project in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia. In addition, risk assessment is undertaken on project implementation. Assessment of risk using the impact and probability to measure the impact of risk occurrence. The impacts are more detailed by classified by time impact, cost impact, quality impact, safety and security impact, proximity. The result is there are 36 risk that may occur and mostly risks are associaated by quality and safety&security impact.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Financial Risks of the Bank: Assessment and Mechanism of Neutralization

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
◽  
Alina Mukhina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Introduction. The issue of financial risk management of commercial banks is quite relevant today, because the activity of banks is the most risky of all. The presence of risks in banking can lead to unexpected losses, namely the loss of own resources. That’s why for the stable operation of the bank without loss the priority is to assess the financial risks, which is the basis for their further neutralization. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop conceptual provisions for assessment financial risks and justifying the need to neutralize them. Results. The article analyzes the impact of risks on the financial stability of a banking institution. The main methods of bank risk assessment are considered. All these include the statistical method, the analytical method, the expert method, the analogue method and the combined method. The necessity of neutralization of financial risks in order to avoid negative consequences is substantiated. Also the methods of bank risks neutralization are considered. It should be noted that these methods of neutralization can not only be used, but also supplement the list with new methods must be done, which in the future will protect the bank from the influence of undesirable factors. A conceptual approach to the assessment and neutralization of financial risks is proposed. This conceptual approach aims to ensure effective assessment of the level of risk with their subsequent neutralization Conclusions. Use of a conceptual approach will allow an effective risk assessment and decision-making to avoid or accept risk. Thanks to using this approach, the banking institution will be able to react swiftly to the presence of financial risks and to prevent the occurrence of negative consequences, which may lead to a violation of the financial stability of the bank.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals A Framework for Project Risk Assessment in Dynamic Networks: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Megaproject Construction

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Amir Farmahini Farahani ◽  
Kaveh Khalili-Damghani ◽  
Hosein Didehkhani ◽  
Amir Homayoun Sarfaraz ◽  
Mehdi Hajirezaie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Dynamic Networks ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Risk Assessment

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

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