Theoretical Estimation of Risk Function and Total Mortality Rate Based on Weibull Distribution

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-38
Author(s):  
Осовец ◽  
S. Osovets
2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Sevi Sawetri ◽  
Subagdja Subagdja ◽  
Dina Muthmainnah

The Malayan leaf fish or locally named as kepor (Pristolepis grooti) is one of important biotic components in Ranau Lake ecosystems. This study aimed to estimate population dynamic and exploitation rate of kepor in Ranau Lake, South Sumatera. The population parameters are estimated based on length frequency data which were collected in March to October 2013. Growth parameters and fishing mortality rates were calculated using FiSAT software package. The results showed that kepor’s growth was negative allometric, which tended to gain length faster than weight. Kepor population was dominated (42%) by individual length of 10.0 to 11.0 cm. Predicted length infinity (L) was 17.28 cm with high value of growth rates (K) of 1.4 year-1. The natural mortality rate (M) is 2.57 year-1, the fishing mortality rate (F) is 5.36 year-1 and total mortality rate (Z) is 7.93 year-1. The exploitation rate of Malayan leaf fish in Ranau Lake (E = 0.68 year-1) has passed the optimum score.  


Author(s):  
Elaine Espino Barr ◽  
Manuel Gallardo Cabello ◽  
Fernando González Orozco ◽  
Arturo Garcia Boa

This paper deals with the growth and mortality analysis of the burrito grunt A n i s o t remus interru p t u s on the coast of Colima, México. The estimated growth parameters are: L¥ = 50.59 cm; W¥ = 5,051.04 g; k = 0.147 years- 1; to = -0.916 years; A0 . 9 5 = 19.46 years. Most of the growth occurred during the first year of life, when the grunt grows 12.52 cm, the second year it grows 4.95 cm and the third, 4.60 cm. The highest value of the condition index took place between February and September. The total mortality rate (Z) was calculated as 0.53 years- 1. These values are basic for the plan of administration of the fishery of this species.


2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 719-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sérgio Fonsêca Guimarães ◽  
Atílio Storti Filho

Matrinxã is a very promising amazonian fish for fish culture in Brazil. This study is aimed at determining the approximate tolerated temperature range in this species. Groups of ten young matrinxã specimens (15.1±0.8 cm average length and 58.3±10.3 g average weight) were subjected to 9 different temperatures for 24 hours without previous acclimation. Fish were transferred from an initial temperature of 27ºC to those ranging from 12 to 39ºC at 3ºC intervals. Both 12ºC and 39ºC temperatures were lethal for this species with 100% mortality rate. Following 2 minutes of exposure to 39ºC fish changed behavior, showing an increase in opercular movements and erratic swimming; mortality reached 100% after 18 minutes. At 12ºC, fish lost equilibrium immediately after exposure and started swimming erratically; after only 4 minutes fish became lethargic and remained immobile on the bottom of the tank. Total mortality was only evident following 24 hours. At 15ºC matrinxã lost equilibrium after 5 to 6 minutes of exposure but mortality was only 20% after 24 hours. Fish tolerated well temperatures ranging from 18 to 36ºC with 100% survival after 24 hours. This preliminary study suggests that temperatures between 18 and 36ºC are the approximate range normally tolerated by this species, although survival at other temperatures may be increased by gradually acclimating fish to the more severe increases or decreases in temperature. In addition, it indicates that matrinxã may be cultivated over a wide geographical area.


Author(s):  
Saliha Kanık Yüksek ◽  
Aslınur Özkaya Parlakay ◽  
Belgin Gülhan ◽  
Neşe Yaralı ◽  
Namık Yaşar Özbek ◽  
...  

Background: The role of combination regimens in the treatment of invasive fungal infections (IFI) in patients with hematologic malignancies remains unclear. This study was aimed to demonstrate experience data about combined antifungal therapy (CAT) in pediatric IFI patients with haematological malignancies. Methods: Between January 2014 and December 2017, a total of 33 IFI episodes in 28 patients with hematological malignancies were analyzed retrospectively. Results: Of the patients (19 with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and 9 with acute myeloblastic leukemia), 21 (75%) had leukemia relapse and 7 (25%) had remission. IFI was classified as possible in 26 (78.8%) episodes, probable in 5 (15.1%) episodes, and proven in 2 (6.1%) episodes. LamB (%50) was the most preferred agent in monotherapy. Mean duration of monotherapy was 12.84 ± 4.28 (5-24) days. LamB plus voriconazole (54.5%) were the most common combination preference in CAT. Mean duration of CAT was 42.36 ± 36.4 days, and unchanged according to combination regimen type (p = 0.571). Total mortality rate and IFI attributable mortality rate were 60.7% vs 76.5%. Mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with relapse (p = 0.006). Complete response was obtained in 81.8% of surviving patients. Duration of neutropenia and CAT, and recovery time were not found statistically different in the episodes with/without death and according to relapse or remission status. Side effects due to CAT use were observed quite low level. Conclusion: CAT has been found to be safe in IFI episodes of pediatric leukemia. The result will contribute to the data about combined antifungal use in daily clinical practice in pediatric haematological patients with IFI.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 5341-5341
Author(s):  
Yue Song ◽  
Yini Wang ◽  
Jingshi Wang ◽  
Zhao Wang

Background: Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a severe or even fatal inflammatory status caused by a hereditary or acquired immunoregulatory abnormality. It is divided into two categories: primary and secondary. Secondary HLH (sHLH) is often associated with and caused by infections, malignant tumors, and autoimmune diseases. Lymphoma associated HLH (LAHS) is one of the most common sHLH, usually presents worse prognosis higher mortality. The treatment strategy for LAHS is still controversial. Etoposide is one of the key drug in HLH-94/04 regimen. We sought to identify the importance of including etoposide in the initial treatment of LAHS, especially comparing with the high dose chemotherapy. Methods: The patients diagnosed as LAHS in our center between Jan 1 2015 and Dec 31 2017 were observed. Survival times were calculated from the date of diagnosis of HLH. All patients were followed up until death or 31 Dec 2018, whichever occurred first. Patients undergoing stem cell transplantation were censored on the date of that procedure. Results: There were 68 patients in total. The median age of the patients was 48 years (15-76 years). They were divided into two groups according to weather the initial treatment containing etoposide. There were 53 patients with initial etoposide and 15 without it. The baseline level between two group shows no differences (p>0.05). The treatment regimens with initial etoposide include HLH-94/04 regimen, DEP (doxorubicin-etoposide-methylprednisolone), L-DEP (PEG-aspargase and DEP regimen), E-CHOP (etoposide and CHOP regimen) and RE-CHOP; those without the initial etoposide, but high-dose chemotherapy, include CHOP/COP, R-CHOP/COP, L-CHOP, CVAD, L-GDP regimen and et al. The response rates of the 68 patients was 66.1%, with the CR rate of 25% (17/68) and PR rate of 41.1% (28/68). A total of 32 cases with initial etoposide achieved remission, and the remission rate was 71.7% (CR 28.3% and PR 43.4%). 7 cases with chemotherapy without etoposide achieved remission, and the remission rate was 46.7%. A significant difference was noted between the two groups (p<0.01). A total of 41 deaths occurred with a total mortality rate of 60.3%. There were 28 deaths in patients with initial etoposide (mortality rate 52.8%) and 13 deaths in the other group (mortality rate 86.6%). A significant difference in mortality was noted between the two groups (p=0.020). Comparing the long-time survival between two groups, the survival of the initial etoposide group (101w±13, 95%CI [76, 127]) is significantly better than that of the no initial etoposide group(37w±12.7, 95% CI [12.0, 61.9]) (p=0.43) (Figure 1). Conclusion: As one of the secondary HLHs, LAHS suffers the worst outcome among all the types of HLH. This study found that initial treatment including etoposide, comparing with the chemotherapy without etoposide, can provide higher response rate, lower mortality rate and better survival. Figure 1 Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2004 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin R. Piner ◽  
Cynthia M. Jones

Spot (Leiostomus xanthurus) are a popular commercial and sport fish in the Chesapeake Bay region (USA), but have not been managed with age-based models because of a lack of information on vital rates. This study determined that transversely sectioned otoliths were the most appropriate structure to age spot, and subsequently used those ages to estimate biological parameters and evaluate the potential for growth overfishing. Because spot are short-lived, this study explored estimating population parameters using both whole annulus counts and fractional ages. Although fractional ages may be more realistic, parameters estimated using fractions of a year should be interpreted with caution. Growth of spot was rapid (84% of length attained in the first year), the natural mortality rate was high (59% year−1), and the total mortality rate (natural + fishing) was very high (80–94% year−1). Spot maximised cohort biomass early in life (≈1 year) and were relatively impervious to growth overfishing. This study illustrates the difficulty in providing management advice for species that maximise cohort biomass about the same time as their first potential spawning event. This study also documents that high exploitation rates and size selective fishing gear probably affect estimates of population parameters.


2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudenice Dei Tos ◽  
Luiz Carlos Gomes ◽  
Angelo Antônio Agostinho ◽  
Rosana Paulo Batista

In order to evaluate the fate of the migratory species dourado Salminus brasiliensis in the first years of impoundment in Corumbá Reservoir we estimated age, growth, mortality and yield per recruit. Samplings were carried out monthly in Corumbá Reservoir and its main tributaries (Goiás State) from March 1998 to February 1999 using gillnets. After one year of impoundment, age was estimated from scales and the maximum number of rings was six for males and five for females. Rings are formed annually in May and June. The asymptotic length and growth rate for males and females were 37.1 cm and 0.77 and 56.6 cm and 0.52, respectively. A dominance of juveniles was verified in the reservoir and its tributaries. The instantaneous total mortality rate (Z) was 1.59 and the annual total mortality rate (A) was 79.6%. The highest yield per recruit (1200g) and the highest average weight (1900g) were obtained in simulations with low values of fishing (F) and natural (M) mortalities. Based on the above information we describe the Corumbá Reservoir impoundment has influenced the growth of the dourado. As regards this study, we recommend that the fishing effort not be applied during the trophic upsurge period and that the monitoring of the dourado assemblage continue. Fishery programs management for this species should be carried out with subsequent monitoring involving efficient communication, realistic practices and involvement of fisher organizations.


2011 ◽  
Vol 106 (09) ◽  
pp. 429-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Marchesi ◽  
Matteo Pierfranceschi ◽  
Mark Crowther ◽  
David Garcia ◽  
Elaine Hylek ◽  
...  

SummaryProthrombin complex concentrates (PCCs) are recommended as the treatment of choice in warfarin-related coagulopathy. However, the risk of thromboembolic complications associated with their use is not well defined. We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the rate of thromboembolic complications in patients receiving vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) treated with PCCs for bleeding or before urgent surgery. Medline and Embase databases were searched. Two reviewers performed study selection and extracted data independently. Studies providing data on incidence of thromboembolic complications in VKA-treated patients were eligible for the study. Weighted mean proportion of the rate of thromboembolic complications and the mortality rate were calculated. Twenty-seven studies (1,032 patients) were included. Seven studies used 3-factor, and 20 4-factor PCCs. Twelve patients had a thromboembolic complication (weighted mean 1.4%; 95% CI 0.8–2.1), of which two were fatal. The incidence of thromboembolic events was 1.8% (95% CI 1.0–3.0) in patients treated with 4-factor PCCs, and 0.7% (95% CI 0.0–2.4) in patients treated with 3-factor PCCs. Total mortality rate was 10.6% (95% CI 5.9–16.6). In conclusion, our results suggest there is a low but quantifiable risk of thromboembolism in VKA-treated patients receiving PCCs for anticoagulation reversal. These findings should be confirmed in randomised, controlled trials.


2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 1040-1047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván Ferraz-Amaro ◽  
Miguel A. González-Gay ◽  
José A. García-Dopico ◽  
Federico Díaz-González

Objective.To investigate how cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP), one of the enzymes involved in the reverse cholesterol transfer, is expressed in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its potential relationship with both dyslipidemia and the risk of cardiovascular mortality observed in these patients.Methods.Plasma CETP concentrations and CETP activity were measured in 101 patients with RA and 115 sex- and age-matched controls. A multivariable analysis adjusted for standard cardiovascular risk factors, including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, was performed to evaluate the influence of CETP on dyslipidemia and cardiovascular mortality risk, as assessed by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk function.Results.Patients with RA showed lower CETP activity [beta coefficient = −10.82 (95% CI −19.56 to 2.07) pmol/3 h; p = 0.02] and an inferior CETP mass [β = −0.85 (95% CI −1.64 to 0.05)μg/ml; p = 0.03] versus controls. Divided into those taking and those not taking glucocorticoids, patients taking glucocorticoids revealed lower CETP activity and mass [β = −8.98 (95% CI −14.55 to 3.41) pmol/3 h; p = 0.00, for CETP activity; and β = −0.77 (95% CI −1.46 to 0.08)μg/ml; p = 0.03, for CETP mass]. Patients with RA not taking glucocorticoids showed no differences versus controls in either CETP activity or mass. Both current prednisone intake [β = −16.14 (95% CI −24.87 to 7.41) pmol/3 h; p = 0.00] and average daily prednisone intake during the last 3 months [β = −0.36 (95% CI −0.54 to 0.18)μg/ml; p = 0.01] were strongly and inversely correlated with CETP activity and mass, respectively. CETP activity showed an inverse trend compared to SCORE risk, demonstrating that lower levels were effective predictors of total mortality when a higher SCORE risk was found [β = −4.7 (95% CI −9.3 to 0.02) pmol/3 h; p = 0.04] in patients with RA.Conclusion.CETP is downregulated in patients with RA who are taking glucocorticoids. Low CETP activity is associated with an increased level of cardiovascular risk in patients with RA.


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