scholarly journals The Future of Forecasting Competitions: Design Attributes and Principles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Makridakis ◽  
Chris Fry ◽  
Fotios Petropoulos ◽  
Evangelos Spiliotis
Keyword(s):  
Life Sciences ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Laboratory Experimentation ◽  
Objective Information ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Design Attributes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Similarities And Differences

Forecasting competitions are the equivalent of laboratory experimentation widely used in physical and life sciences. They provide useful, objective information to improve the theory and practice of forecasting, advancing the field, expanding its usage, and enhancing its value to decision and policymakers. We describe 10 design attributes to be considered when organizing forecasting competitions, taking into account trade-offs between optimal choices and practical concerns, such as costs, as well as the time and effort required to participate in them. Consequently, we map all major past competitions in respect to their design attributes, identifying similarities and differences between them, as well as design gaps, and making suggestions about the principles to be included in future competitions, putting a particular emphasis on learning as much as possible from their implementation in order to help improve forecasting accuracy and uncertainty. We discuss that the task of forecasting often presents a multitude of challenges that can be difficult to capture in a single forecasting contest. To assess the caliber of a forecaster, we, therefore, propose that organizers of future competitions consider a multicontest approach. We suggest the idea of a forecasting-“athlon” in which different challenges of varying characteristics take place.

scholarly journals Connectivity in and around Organizations: Waves, tensions and trade-offs

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (12) ◽  
pp. 1589-1599
Author(s):  
Darl G. Kolb ◽  
Kristine Dery ◽  
Marleen Huysman ◽  
Anca Metiu
Keyword(s):  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Digital Ecosystems ◽  
Digital World ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Way

Connectivity has become the foundation for organizing as it increasingly underpins and defines the way we live and work. Notwithstanding all the advances in connectivity within organizations, there are even more pervasive changes between and around organizations. In a digital world, more and more of us are working anytime, anyplace, and companies deliver value by better connecting with customers and external partners within digital ecosystems. In this introduction to the Special Issue, we summarize four waves of connectivity – globalization, socialization, personalization and datafication – that combine to create opportunities and challenges for contemporary organizations. We then introduce the papers in the special issue and discuss their contributions to theory and practice. Finally, we draw upon currently emerging challenges to suggest enduring tensions and trade-offs for connectivity research in the future.

The Nature of Degrowth: Theorising the Core of Nature for the Degrowth Movement

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasi Heikkurinen
Keyword(s):  
Human Nature ◽  
Culturally Sensitive ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Radical Reduction ◽  
Nature Experience ◽  
Matter Energy

This article investigates human–nature relations in the light of the recent call for degrowth, a radical reduction of matter–energy throughput in over-producing and over-consuming cultures. It outlines a culturally sensitive response to a (conceived) paradox where humans embedded in nature experience alienation and estrangement from it. The article finds that if nature has a core, then the experienced distance makes sense. To describe the core of nature, three temporal lenses are employed: the core of nature as ‘the past’, ‘the future’, and ‘the present’. It is proposed that while the degrowth movement should be inclusive of temporal perspectives, the lens of the present should be emphasised to balance out the prevailing romanticism and futurism in the theory and practice of degrowth.

scholarly journals Asteroid and Comet Surveys

1994 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 385-400
Author(s):  
B.G. Marsden
Keyword(s):  
Logical Sequence ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ecliptic Latitude ◽  
Similarities And Differences

Past surveys are described in the logical sequence of (1) comets visually, (2) asteroids visually, (3) asteroids photographically and (4) comets photographically. Plots show the evolution of asteroid surveys in terms of visual discovery magnitude and ecliptic latitude, and similarities and differences between surveys for the different types of body are discussed. The paper ends with a brief discussion of more recent discovery methods and some thoughts on the future.

scholarly journals The Governance of Covid-19: Anthropogenic Risk, Evolutionary Learning, and the Future of the Social State

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-594
Author(s):  
Simon Deakin ◽  
Gaofeng Meng
Keyword(s):  
Theory And Practice ◽  
State Of Exception ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Feedback Effects ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
Anthropogenic Risks ◽  
Industrialised Countries

Abstract We consider the implications of the Covid-19 crisis for the theory and practice of governance. We define ‘governance’ as the process through which, in the case of a given entity or polity, resources are allocated, decisions made and policies implemented, with a view to ensuring the effectiveness of its operations in the face of risks in its environment. Core to this, we argue, is the organisation of knowledge through public institutions, including the legal system. Covid-19 poses a particular type of ‘Anthropogenic’ risk, which arises when organised human activity triggers feedback effects from the natural environment. As such it requires the concerted mobilisation of knowledge and a directed response from governments and international agencies. In this context, neoliberal theories and practices, which emphasise the self-adjusting properties of systems of governance in response to external shocks, are going to be put to the test. In states’ varied responses to Covid-19 to date, it is already possible to observe some trends. One of them is the widespread mischaracterisation of the measures taken to address the epidemic at the point of its emergence in the Chinese city of Wuhan in January and February 2020. Public health measures of this kind, rather than constituting a ‘state of exception’ in which legality is set aside, are informed by practices which originated in the welfare or social states of industrialised countries, and which were successful in achieving a ‘mortality revolution’ in the course of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Relearning this history would seem to be essential for the future control of pandemics and other Anthropogenic risks.

Psychophysiology, cognition, and political differences

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan Mansell ◽  
Allison Harell ◽  
Elisabeth Gidengil ◽  
Patrick A. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Life Sciences ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Open Science ◽  
Common Theme ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Future ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Political Differences ◽  
Science Framework

AbstractWe introduce the Politics and the Life Sciences special issue on Psychophysiology, Cognition, and Political Differences. This issue represents the second special issue funded by the Association for Politics and the Life Sciences that adheres to the Open Science Framework for registered reports (RR). Here pre-analysis plans (PAPs) are peer-reviewed and given in-principle acceptance (IPA) prior to data being collected and/or analyzed, and are published contingent upon the preregistration of the study being followed as proposed. Bound by a common theme of the importance of incorporating psychophysiological perspectives into the study of politics, broadly defined, the articles in this special issue feature a unique set of research questions and methodologies. In the following, we summarize the findings, discuss the innovations produced by this research, and highlight the importance of open science for the future of political science research.

Basic models of human-centrist, polyspiral, sustainable development of Ukraine

2021 ◽  
pp. 37-45
Author(s):  
Valery Borzunov
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Buffer Zone ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
External Control ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Definition Of

Subject of study. A set of relations that are formed in the process of determining models of sustainable development of Ukraine and the principles of designing the economy of the future. Purpose of the article: research of the main directions of sustainable development of Ukraine and the formation of principles of strategy. Research methodology. Scientific novelty of the work, the theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the system of both general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge, the fundamental provisions of modern economic theory and practice. The proposed methodology of a system-integrated approach to the formation of basic models of man-centered, multispiral, sustainable development of Ukraine. As integrity in the organic unity of the prevailing prerequisites for the formation of the principles of strategizing. Scientific novelty lies in the definition of models for sustainable development of Ukraine and the principles of designing the economy of the future. Results of the work – the applied use of scientific results of improved approaches for the development and implementation of a strategy for human- centered, polyspiral, sustainable development is proposed. Conclusions. For 30 years of independence, Ukraine has turned from an industrially developed country into a backward and poorest country in Europe with an economy of lagging growth, the status of a «buffer zone» of geopolitical conflict on its territory and external control. To maintain sovereignty, ensure the country's competitiveness in the context of the transition to new technological paradigms and the quality of life of the population, at least at the average level for the EU countries, Ukraine needs to change course, develop and implement the «Strategy of human-centrist, multi-spiral, sustainable development».

Surplus: Two Hundred Years of Actuarial Advance

1962 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 19-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Cox ◽  
R. H. Storr-Best
Keyword(s):  
Theory And Practice ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Assurance ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Social Scene ◽  
Principal Factors ◽  
The Times ◽  
Historical Developments

SynopsisThe paper is in the nature of a summary of the authors' book “Surplus in British Life Assurance—Actuarial Control over its Emergence and Distribution during 200 Years”. Copies may be purchased direct from the Institute of Actuaries (price 17s. 6d.). Members and Students of the Faculty may obtain a copy for personal use at the reduced price of 11s. post free. It begins with a survey of the principal factors that have influenced the development of theory and practice in regard to surplus throughout the years. It describes the manner in which surplus first arose in scientific life assurance, and traces how this and other historical developments have had an important effect both in the early days and later as a valid standard of equity was gradually evolved. At the same time the influence of long-dated contracts and of the expectations of the public has been a stabilising factor in spite of rapid changes in the economic and social scene.The characteristics of the nineteenth-century image of equity are described, and the history of the twentieth century in regard to surplus is seen as one of attempts to preserve that image through sharp and contrasting vicissitudes. This idea is explored in some detail for both ordinary and industrial life business.The problems of the present day are reviewed one by one and the paper touches on such matters as economic inflation, the public demand for pension schemes, the introduction of computers and data-processing devices and the prospect of Britain joining the Common Market. Against this background, various modern concepts of equity are contrasted and brief reference is made to matching, immunisation and gearing. Equity in with-profit pension schemes and systems of variable policies are also considered.This general survey leads the authors in the end to ask some critical questions about the performance of the profession throughout its history. These questions relate to the success or otherwise of actuaries in foreseeing the future, in attaining equity and in progressing with the times. The authors attempt to answer them and are able to end on a cheerful note as regards past achievements and to express great hopes for the future, which may well bring a new era for the profession.

scholarly journals FORMING THE INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY COMPETENCESS IN THE PROCESS OF TRAINING STUDENTS IN ENGINEERING GRAPHICS

2020 ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
V.M. Arapov ◽  
◽  
G.N. Egorova
Keyword(s):  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
School Students ◽  
Engineering Graphics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Learning Research

Realization of the formed technical competences in innovative activities is shown. The basis of students’ innovative activities in engineering graphics training is the formation of research and invention competences, development of cognitive and creative activities of students. The learning research activity of students is understood as his/her independent activity resulting in obtaining new, not known before, knowledge under the scientific and methodological guidance of the teacher. The didactic principles are defined, organization and methodological issues, that provide the formation innovative competences of the future engineers, are considered. The expedience of pre-university graphical training of senior school students and annual monitoring of the working programs in the engineering graphics subjects is shown. Formation of the innovative competences can be based on the personal activity approach with application of the principles of independence, theory and practice link, scientificality, motivation, activity and variability.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document