scholarly journals Pendekatan Model Nonparametrik untuk Memodelkan Hubungan Antara Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Tahun 1969-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Non Parametric

<p class="Abstract-Title">Inflation is one of the macroeconomic variables of concern to the government in addition to economic growth, unemployment and poverty. Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to the quantity theory of the classics, argues that the price level is determined by the amount of money in circulation, prices will rise if there is an increase in the money supply, assuming the amount of goods offered is fixed, while the amount of money is doubled, sooner or later the price will doubled. Often the relationship between macroeconomic variables is not always linear, it can be exponential, logarithmic, or highly fluctuating patterns. This nonlinear relationship cannot be forced using parametric regression which generally uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) or Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) which often implies the existence of certain distributions and linear data patterns. In some literatures, researches using a linear model with OLS, for describing the relationship between CPI and money supply. This research uses several non parametric approaches, namely kernel and <em>spline</em> functions. The results obtained are a strong positive relationship between money supply and CPI, where money supply has a significantly positive effect on CPI. The most suitable non parametric method to describe the relationship pattern between CPI and money supply is the smoothing <em>spline</em> method with Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) parameter optimization method with the smallest RMSE and MAPE criteria and functions that can follow data patterns smoothly.</p><p class="Abstract-Title"><strong>Keywords</strong>: CPI, money supply, non parametric, kernel, <em>spline</em>.</p>

scholarly journals Estimation of VECM Parameter Using Bayesian Approach: An Application to Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Meilina Retno Hapsari ◽  
Suci Astutik ◽  
Loekito Adi Soehono
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Relationship

This study uses Bayesian approach to estimate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The aims of this study is to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. To analyze the best method to influence government targets or policies on economic growth by studying the relationships of many macroeconomic variables. Previous studies in analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic variables with VECM analysis, using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation. However this estimation method cannot solve the problem of overparameterization in VECM model. The variables used in this study are six macroeconomic variables in Indonesia in 2010 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 4 are GDP, the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US dollar, exports, imports and interest rates. The number of data in this study is less than the number of estimated parameters causing overparameterization problems. Therefore, this study uses the Bayesian parameter estimation method to avoid overparameterization problems in economic data. The model obtained from this study is the BVECM(3) and it has been proven that the model is suitable (the model diagnostic test). Based on the parameter estimation results of BVECM(3), the significant variables affecting GDP are GDP itself, the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar, exports, imports and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificates. In addition, there is a two-way relationship that affects each other, namely the relationship between GDP and the money supply, exports and imports, exports and interest rates, and between imports and interest rates.

scholarly journals Fraud risk and trust on the intention to buy of e-commerce

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Dewi Anggun Puspitarini ◽  
Prawira Aros Purnama ◽  
Isti Riana Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Purchase Intentions ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Inner Model ◽  
Deceptive Behavior ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze and obtain empirical evidence of deceptive behavior as a moderating variable of trust in purchasing through e-commerce purchase intentions. The data of this research were obtained from the results of collecting a questionnaire of 100 respondents who were consumers who had made transactions through e-commerce sites. Testing the hypothesis in this study using the measurement model (Outer Model) and structural models (Inner Model) with the application of Partial Least Square (PLS). The PLS program used is SmartPLS version 3.02.8. The results of this study indicate that trust has a positive effect on purchase intentions. However, with deceptive behavior as moderation, deceptive behavior weakens the relationship between trust in purchasing through E-Commerce and purchase intention as a mediating variable. Purchase intention is proven to be a mediating variable that mediates trust in mentally buying. The government should be more assertive in handling cases of e-commerce crime that are rife to create security and comfort for e-commerce site users.

scholarly journals Contemporary Indonesian GDP: Context of Analysis at Unemployment, Labor Force and Poor People

2021 ◽  
pp. 143-154
Author(s):  
Erwin Kurniawan A. ◽  
Muhammad Awaluddin ◽  
Fitriadi Fitriadi ◽  
Arfiah Busari ◽  
Dio Caisar Darma
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Indonesia is a developing country that has always prioritized sustainable development. In achieving these development goals, Indonesia needs to achieve economic growth by improving population welfare and increasing income. With the form of panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia that have unique characteristics, the author presented them during 2015-2019. Through multiple linear regression, this study seeks to discuss the relationship of unemployment, labor force participation rate, and poor people to Indonesia’s GDP growth. These findings suggest that the three macroeconomic variables have a negative impact on GDP. Regarding GDP growth, only unemployment has an actual effect, while others have no significant effect. The implications of the policies pursued by the government are not only paying attention to economic aspects but social problems that are expected to spur economic development.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

Analysis of Mustahik Economic Empowerment Model in Pekanbaru

2020 ◽  
pp. 443-458
Author(s):  
Budi Trianto
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Poverty Line ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The Government ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Model Approach ◽  
Non Parametric

In Pekanbaru, Indonesia, mustahik empowerment has two model approaches for running the mustahik economic empowerment programs,  namely individual empowerment  and groups empowerment. This paper aims to analyze whether two model approach of mustahik empowerment can increase household income and maximize alleviate poverty. To analyze those models, we used qualitative  and statistics non-parametric method. After an investigation, from two models empowerment approach that have been implemented in Pekanbaru, researcher found that mustahik income in groups and individualy relatively same result after getting an empowerment program. This result is confirmed by the non-parametric statistical analysis using the Mann-Whitney test. The statistical test result shows  that the two mustahik empowerment models implemented by zakat institutions in Pekanbaru still did not perform maximally in increasing mustahik household income and poverty alleviation because the result is still below 50 percent by using the World Bank and BAZNAS standard of poverty line. Nevertheless, those models are success to alleviate poverty if use the Government standard of poverty line. This result implies that the zakat institutions to should find another approach to reach the BAZNAS or World Bank standard of poverty line. In Pekanbaru, Indonesia, mustahik empowerment has two model approaches for running the mustahik economic empowerment programs,  namely individual empowerment  and groups empowerment. This paper aims to analyze whether two model approach of mustahik empowerment can increase household income and maximize alleviate poverty. To analyze those models, we used qualitative  and statistics non-parametric method. After an investigation, from two models empowerment approach that have been implemented in Pekanbaru, researcher found that mustahik income in groups and individualy relatively same result after getting an empowerment program. This result is confirmed by the non-parametric statistical analysis using the Mann-Whitney test. The statistical test result shows  that the two mustahik empowerment models implemented by zakat institutions in Pekanbaru still did not perform maximally in increasing mustahik household income and poverty alleviation because the result is still below 50 percent by using the World Bank and BAZNAS standard of poverty line. Nevertheless, those models are success to alleviate poverty if use the Government standard of poverty line. This result implies that the zakat institutions to should find another approach to reach the BAZNAS or World Bank standard of poverty line.

scholarly journals Does time inconsistency differ between gain and loss? An intra-personal comparison using a non-parametric elicitation method

2019 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-452
Author(s):  
Shotaro Shiba ◽  
Kazumi Shimizu
Keyword(s):  
Parametric Method ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Present Bias ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Gain And Loss ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Non Parametric

Abstract Several studies on time preference have found time inconsistency in both gain and loss preferences. However, the relationship between the two within the same person remains unclear; that is, does an individual who demonstrates time inconsistency for gain outcomes do so for losses as well? This paper reports on individuals’ time inconsistency for gains and losses in a laboratory setting. To obtain a precise comparison of individuals’ time inconsistency for gains and losses, we used Rohde’s “DI (decreasing impatience)-index” (Manag Sci 65(4):1700–1716, 2018) and measured the level of time inconsistency, rather than merely identifying whether TI was present. This index represents how strongly a person exhibits present bias, and easily extends to the comparison between gain and loss preferences within the same person. Further, it allows the experiment to test for so-called future bias, which has been a focus area in recent time inconsistency literature. It is elicited through a non-parametric method, which avoids any specification errors in the analysis. Our findings are as follows: first, we found future bias in preferences for not only gains but also losses, and we confirmed that this tendency is consistent with previous findings on preferences for gains. Second, a positive correlation between time inconsistency for gains and losses was found at the individual level. Indeed, we could not find a significant difference between the two in most cases.

Determinants of Taxable Capacity in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 42-51
Author(s):  
Bassey Eyo Bassey ◽  
Eme J. Efiong
Keyword(s):  
Global Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Economic Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Test Of Hypotheses ◽  
Effective Administration ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

This study is centered on the determinants of taxable capacity in Nigeria, with taxable capacity viewed as the ability of the taxed person to bear the burden of the tax in relation to their source of income without experiencing a reduction in standard of living, or margin of profit and investment in the case of firms. The study employed desk survey research design, and data obtained from secondary sources and analysis conducted using the ordinary least square technique. The results from the regression analysis and the test of hypotheses revealed that the relationship between inflation and taxable capacity in Nigeria was negative and statistically insignificant. Also, the results showed that both the degree of economic openness and the level of economic development positively and significantly affected taxable capacity in Nigeria. The study recommended that the Nigerian government should create an enabling environment that will facilitate international trade and provide the necessary facilities for the efficient and effective administration of taxes on the income generated from the global market as these will go a long way in providing revenue for the government.

scholarly journals KAJIAN PERSEPSI DAN SIKAP MASYARAKAT TANI DALAM PROGRAM GERTAK TANPA DUSTA DI KABUPATEN TANJUNG JABUNG TIMUR, PROVINSI JAMBI

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Nida Kemala ◽  
Mulyani Mulyani
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
High Category ◽  
High Attitude ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Non Parametric

This study was conducted in “Tanjung Jabung Timur” Regency , Jambi Province where programs of “Gerakan Serentak Tanam Padi Dua kali Setahun (Gertak Tanpa Dusta)” was  applied. The  research focused on a farmer perception toward to the program, their attitude of independently paddy farming and the relationship between both their perception and their attitude. Total population were 485 so the number of  sample was 73 farmers (15%), and was taken by proportional random sampling methode. While the method of analysis to find out the relation between both variables was done by non parametric statistical tests namely Chi-Square 2x2. The prospect of this research was to give  the government in making a choise of the program sustainability.The result showed that most of farmers had 80,8% showed good perception toward to  the program and  it’s  only 14 farmers (19,2%) showed bad. Their attitude of independently paddy farming showed 63% low and only 37% farmers had high category. Majority of  respondents who have the good pereption  showed low attitude of independently  paddy farming. There were 59 farmers with good perception and it showed  69,5%  had low attitude. In contrary the  majority of bad perception farmers showed high attitude as 64,3%. There were a significantly relation  between the farmer perception toward to the program and their attitude of independently paddy farming in “Gertak Tanpa Dusta” program.Keywords: Program, Perception, Attitude, FarmerPenelitian ini dilakukan di   Kabupaten Tanjung  Jabung Timur,  Provinsi Jambi dimana di lokasi inilah program  Gerakan Serentak Tanam Padi Dua Kali Setahun (Gertak Tanpa Dusta) dilakukan. Penelitian ini difokuskan pada kajian persepsi petani terhadap program, sikap kemandirian  mereka dalam berusahatani padi dan hubungan antara  persepsi dengan sikap kemandirian. Jumlah populasi sebanyak 485 petani maka jumlah sampel sebanyak 73 petani (15%), yang ditentukan dengan metode  “proporsional random sampling”. Sedangkan metode analisis untuk melihat hubungan antara kedua variabel tersebut dilakukan oleh non-parametrik yaitu uji chi-square 2x2. Prospek penelitian ini adalah untuk memberikan pilihan bagi pemerintah dalam menentukan keberlangsungan suatu program. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa mayoritas petani (80,8%) memiliki persepsi yang baik terhadap program dan hanya  14 petani (19,2%) menunjukkan persepsi kurang baik . Sikap kemandirian dalam budidaya padi menunjukkan 63 % rendah dan hanya 37% petani yang memiliki sikap kemandirian tinggi. Kebanyakan responden yang memiliki persepsi baik terhadap program menunjukkan sikap kemandirian dalam berusahatani padi yang rendah. Dari 59 petani dengan persepsi baik terdapat  69,5 % diantaranya yang memiliki sikap kemandirian rendah. Sebaliknya sebagian besar persepsi kurang baik  menunjukkan sikap kemandirian yang tinggi yaitu 64,3 %. Terdapat hubungan yang signifikan antara persepsi petani terhadap program dan sikap kemandirian  dalam  program Gertak Tanpa Dusta. Kata kunci:  Program, Persepsi, Sikap, Petani

scholarly journals Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (06) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Ese Ighoroje ◽  
Catherine, Ogheneovo Orife
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Ex Post

The study investigated effect of selected macroeconomic variables on agricultural sector output in Nigeria from 1987 - 2019. Annual Agricultural Output (AAO) represented the dependent variable for the study while gross domestic product, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate represented the explanatory variables. Ex-post factor research design was employed for the study. Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Roots test and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression techniques were used to analyze data collected. The empirical investigation showed that gross domestic product as well as money supply has a positive and significant effect on agricultural output, while interest rate and exchange rate exerted a negative and insignificant effect on agricultural output. From the study, selected macroeconomic variables have positive effect on agricultural output in Nigeria and this has tremendously contributed to the country's growth and development. The study recommends amongst other; that government should accelerate the rate of economic growth by investing heavily on the agricultural sector so as to boost domestic production and enhance exportation in order to stabilize exchange rate while curbing inflation; give incentives to banks extending agricultural loans by lowering the lending rate on agricultural loans to ease access to funds for agricultural investment.

scholarly journals Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (4III) ◽  
pp. 945-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary ◽  
Naved Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Distribution Of Income ◽  
Double Digit

Inflation is a burning issue in Pakistan. It is generally felt that for several years Pakistan has had a double-digit inflation. The public sector has used a mix of policies to control inflation, and it is also held responsible for its creation. The consumer price index (CPI) increased over 11 percent in 1981-82, and over 12 percent in 1990-91. Similarly, sensitive price index (SPI) increased over 15 percent in 1981-82, and over 12 percent in 1990-91. The GDP deflator was also double-digit for several years. Inflation not only affects sectoral allocation and distribution of income but also generates poverty. A prescription might not be appropriate until the roots of the disease are carefully investigated, which is the very reason for carrying out this study. Studies by Hossain (1990) several others concluded that inflation is a monetary phenomenon in Pakistan, while Bilquees (1988) showed that structural factors explained the inflationary process in Pakistan. It is widely disagreed whether money supply is exogenous or endogenous. Vogel (1974), criticising the monetarist approach, argued that further research is needed on the determination of money supply. Given this background, this study is intended to identify the variables leading to inflation; the nature of money supply, endogenous or exogenous, is also analysed. Section 2 of the study provides a brief review of the literature. A model is developed to study the relationship among fiscal deficit, money supply, and inflation. Section 3 contains a description of the empirical results. Section 4 provides the conclusion and policy implications.

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