scholarly journals Empirical model for short-time prediction of COVID-19 spreading

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e1008431
Author(s):  
Martí Català ◽  
Sergio Alonso ◽  
Enrique Alvarez-Lacalle ◽  
Daniel López ◽  
Pere-Joan Cardona ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Workers ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spreading Velocity ◽  
Current State ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Public Health Workers ◽  
Short Time

The appearance and fast spreading of Covid-19 took the international community by surprise. Collaboration between researchers, public health workers, and politicians has been established to deal with the epidemic. One important contribution from researchers in epidemiology is the analysis of trends so that both the current state and short-term future trends can be carefully evaluated. Gompertz model has been shown to correctly describe the dynamics of cumulative confirmed cases, since it is characterized by a decrease in growth rate showing the effect of control measures. Thus, it provides a way to systematically quantify the Covid-19 spreading velocity and it allows short-term predictions and longer-term estimations. This model has been employed to fit the cumulative cases of Covid-19 from several European countries. Results show that there are systematic differences in spreading velocity among countries. The model predictions provide a reliable picture of the short-term evolution in countries that are in the initial stages of the Covid-19 outbreak, and may permit researchers to uncover some characteristics of the long-term evolution. These predictions can also be generalized to calculate short-term hospital and intensive care units (ICU) requirements.

scholarly journals Empiric model for short-time prediction of COVID-19 spreading

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marti Catala ◽  
Sergio Alonso ◽  
Enrique Alvarez Lacalle ◽  
Daniel Lopez ◽  
Pere-Joan Cardona ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Workers ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spreading Velocity ◽  
Current State ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Public Health Workers ◽  
Short Time

Covid-19 appearance and fast spreading took by surprise the international community. Collaboration between researchers, public health workers and politicians has been established to deal with the epidemic. One important contribution from researchers in epidemiology is the analysis of trends so that both current state and short-term future trends can be carefully evaluated. Gompertz model has shown to correctly describe the dynamics of cumulative confirmed cases, since it is characterized by a decrease in growth rate that is able to show the effect of control measures. Thus, it provides a way to systematically quantify the Covid-19 spreading velocity. Moreover, it allows to carry out short-term predictions and long-term estimations that may facilitate policy decisions and the revision of in-place confinement measures and the development of new protocols. This model has been employed to fit the cumulative cases of Covid-19 from several Chinese provinces and from other countries with a successful containment of the disease. Results show that there are systematic differences in spreading velocity between countries. In countries that are in the initial stages of the Covid-19 outbreak, model predictions provide a reliable picture of its short-term evolution and may permit to unveil some characteristics of the long-term evolution. These predictions can also be generalized to short-term hospital and Intensive Care Units (ICU) requirements, which together with the equivalent predictions on mortality provide key information for health officials.

scholarly journals Analisis Peningkatan Upah Minimum Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 134-143
Author(s):  
Annisa Yulianti ◽  
Hadi Sasana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Meaningful Relationship ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Relationship Of

 This study aims to analyze the short-term and long-term relationship of increasing the minimum wage in Central Java on employment. The research method used is ECM. The variables of this study include labor, minimum wages, PMDN, and economic growth. The data used are time-series data from 1990-2020. The results show that the minimum wage has a positive and significant relationship to the employment in the long term but not significantly in the short time. PMDN has a negative but significant correlation in the short and long term. At the same time, the variable economic growth has a positive but not meaningful relationship to employment absorption in the long and short term.

“The Death of Liberal Internationalism?: Donald Trump, Walmart, and the Two Koreas”

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-197
Author(s):  
Mitchell B. Lerner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Liberal Internationalism ◽  
The People ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Short Time

The election of Donald J. Trump unsettled many areas of U.S. foreign policy, but few more than the nation’s relationship with Korea. This article argues that the Trump administration’s vision for the world represents a stark break from the tradition of liberal internationalism and instead seeks to take the United States down a path that reflects the modern business practices of giant American corporations. A suitable label for this vision, as the following pages will show, is “Walmart unilateralism.” This framework abandons the traditional American policies of nation building and alliances based on shared ideological values. Instead, it embraces a more short-term approach rooted in financial bottom lines, flexible alliances and rivalries, and the ruthless exploitation of power hierarchies. This new approach, this article concludes, may dramatically transform the American relationship with Korea. Walmart unilateralism in Korea almost certainly will have some short-time positive ramifications for the United States, but its larger failure to consider the history and values of the people living on the Korean Peninsula may generate serious long-term problems for the future experience of the United States in the region.

Contrasting tactical and strategic dynamics on a Clausewitz landscape

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-153
Author(s):  
Rodrick Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Human Organization ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Time

Statistical models based on the asymptotic limit theorems of control and information theories allow formal examination of the essential differences between short-time “tactical” confrontations and a long-term “strategic” conflict dominated by evolutionary process. The world of extended coevolutionary conflict is not the world of sequential “muddling through.” The existential strategic challenge is to take cognitive control of a long-term dynamic in which one may, in fact, be “losing” most short-term confrontations. Winning individual battles can be a relatively direct, if not simple or easy, matter of sufficient local resources, training, and resolve. Winning extended conflicts is not direct, and requires management of subtle coevolutionary phenomena subject to a dismaying punctuated equilibrium more familiar from evolutionary theory than military doctrine. Directed evolution has given us the agricultural base needed for large-scale human organization. Directed coevolution of the inevitable conflicts between the various segments of that organization may be needed for its long-term persistence.

scholarly journals Effects on students of working in industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Aaron Simon Blicblau ◽  
Tracey Louise Nelson ◽  
Kourosh Dini
Keyword(s):  
Academic Performance ◽  
Project Work ◽  
Work Outcomes ◽  
Work Experiences ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Capstone Project ◽  
Academic Grades ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of two arrangements of work experiences; short term (over 12 weeks, STIE) and long- term (over 52 weeks, LTIE) on both final academic grades and capstone project grades. The results from this work will inform future approaches of determining the benefits to students of the usefulness of industry placed learning experiences (short or long term) as both an indicator of academic performance, and success in capstone project work. Outcomes have shown that engineering graduates without substantial industrial experience often find employment difficult to find in the short time after completing their studies.

scholarly journals Performance of Polyester-Based Electrospun Scaffolds under In Vitro Hydrolytic Conditions: From Short-Term to Long-Term Applications

Nanomaterials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Gil-Castell ◽  
José David Badia ◽  
Jordi Bou ◽  
Amparo Ribes-Greus
Keyword(s):  
Molar Mass ◽  
Pure Water ◽  
Phosphate Buffer Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Buffer Solution ◽  
Electrospun Scaffolds ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Short Time

The evaluation of the performance of polyesters under in vitro physiologic conditions is essential to design scaffolds with an adequate lifespan for a given application. In this line, the degradation-durability patterns of poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA), polydioxanone (PDO), polycaprolactone (PCL) and polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) scaffolds were monitored and compared giving, as a result, a basis for the specific design of scaffolds from short-term to long-term applications. For this purpose, they were immersed in ultra-pure water and phosphate buffer solution (PBS) at 37 °C. The scaffolds for short-time applications were PLGA and PDO, in which the molar mass diminished down to 20% in a 20–30 days lifespan. While PDO developed crystallinity that prevented the geometry of the fibres, those of PLGA coalesced and collapsed. The scaffolds for long-term applications were PCL and PHB, in which the molar mass followed a progressive decrease, reaching values of 10% for PCL and almost 50% for PHB after 650 days of immersion. This resistant pattern was mainly ascribed to the stability of the crystalline domains of the fibres, in which the diameters remained almost unaffected. From the perspective of an adequate balance between the durability and degradation, this study may serve technologists as a reference point to design polyester-based scaffolds for biomedical applications.

scholarly journals Spectral evolution of weakly nonlinear random waves: kinetic description versus direct numerical simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 844 ◽  
pp. 766-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Y. Annenkov ◽  
Victor I. Shrira
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Kinetic Equations ◽  
Wave Spectra ◽  
Kinetic Description ◽  
Spectral Evolution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Weakly Nonlinear ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Integral Characteristics

Kinetic equations are widely used in many branches of science to describe the evolution of random wave spectra. To examine the validity of these equations, we study numerically the long-term evolution of water wave spectra without wind input using three different models. The first model is the classical kinetic (Hasselmann) equation (KE). The second model is the generalised kinetic equation (gKE), derived employing the same statistical closure as the KE but without the assumption of quasistationarity. The third model, which we refer to as the DNS-ZE, is a direct numerical simulation algorithm based on the Zakharov integrodifferential equation, which plays the role of the primitive equation for a weakly nonlinear wave field. It does not employ any statistical assumptions. We perform a comparison of the spectral evolution of the same initial distributions without forcing, with/without a statistical closure and with/without the quasistationarity assumption. For the initial conditions, we choose two narrow-banded spectra with the same frequency distribution and different degrees of directionality. The short-term evolution ($O(10^{2})$ wave periods) of both spectra has been previously thoroughly studied experimentally and numerically using a variety of approaches. Our DNS-ZE results are validated both with existing short-term DNS by other methods and with available laboratory observations of higher-order moment (kurtosis) evolution. All three models demonstrate very close evolution of integral characteristics of the spectra, approaching with time the theoretical asymptotes of the self-similar stage of evolution. Both kinetic equations give almost identical spectral evolution, unless the spectrum is initially too narrow in angle. However, there are major differences between the DNS-ZE and gKE/KE predictions. First, the rate of angular broadening of initially narrow angular distributions is much larger for the gKE and KE than for the DNS-ZE, although the angular width does appear to tend to the same universal value at large times. Second, the shapes of the frequency spectra differ substantially (even when the nonlinearity is decreased), the DNS-ZE spectra being wider than the KE/gKE ones and having much lower spectral peaks. Third, the maximal rates of change of the spectra obtained with the DNS-ZE scale as the fourth power of nonlinearity, which corresponds to the dynamical time scale of evolution, rather than the sixth power of nonlinearity typical of the kinetic time scale exhibited by the KE. The gKE predictions fall in between. While the long-term DNS show excellent agreement with the KE predictions for integral characteristics of evolving wave spectra, the striking systematic discrepancies for a number of specific spectral characteristics call for revision of the fundamentals of the wave kinetic description.

scholarly journals Long-term evolution is surprisingly predictable in lattice proteins

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (82) ◽  
pp. 20130026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Palmer ◽  
Arnav Moudgil ◽  
Marcus W. Feldman
Keyword(s):  
Natural Selection ◽  
Basins Of Attraction ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Selection ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Evolutionary Success ◽  
Lattice Proteins

It has long been debated whether natural selection acts primarily upon individual organisms, or whether it also commonly acts upon higher-level entities such as lineages. Two arguments against the effectiveness of long-term selection on lineages have been (i) that long-term evolutionary outcomes will not be sufficiently predictable to support a meaningful long-term fitness and (ii) that short-term selection on organisms will almost always overpower long-term selection. Here, we use a computational model of protein folding and binding called ‘lattice proteins’. We quantify the long-term evolutionary success of lineages with two metrics called the k -fitness and k -survivability. We show that long-term outcomes are surprisingly predictable in this model: only a small fraction of the possible outcomes are ever realized in multiple replicates. Furthermore, the long-term fitness of a lineage depends only partly on its short-term fitness; other factors are also important, including the ‘evolvability’ of a lineage—its capacity to produce adaptive variation. In a system with a distinct short-term and long-term fitness, evolution need not be ‘short-sighted’: lineages may be selected for their long-term properties, sometimes in opposition to short-term selection. Similar evolutionary basins of attraction have been observed in vivo , suggesting that natural biological lineages will also have a predictive long-term fitness.

Long and short time evolution of deep seated gravitational slope deformation: contribution to knowledge of phenomena for the management of alea in the Alpine mountains

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clément Boivin
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Slope Deformation ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Short Time Evolution

<p>"LONG AND SHORT TIME EVOLUTION OF DEEP SEATED GRAVITATIONAL SLOPE DEFORMATION: CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE OF PHENOMENA FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF ALEA IN THE ALPINE MOUNTAINS"</p><p> </p><p>C.Boivin <sup>a</sup>, J.P. Malet <sup>a</sup>, C. Bertrand <sup>b</sup>, F. Chabaux <sup>c</sup>, J. van der Woerd <sup>a</sup>, Y. Thiery <sup>d</sup>, F. Lacquement <sup>d</sup></p><p><sup>a  </sup>Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg – IPGS/DA - UMR 7516 CNRS-Unistra</p><p><sup>b </sup> Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement – LCE / UMR 6249 CNRS – UFC</p><p><sup>c</sup>  Laboratoire d’Hydrologie et de Géochimie de Strasbourg – BISE / UMR 7517 – Unistra</p><p><sup>d</sup>  Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières</p><p> </p><p>          The <strong>Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD)</strong> are defined like a set of rock mass characterized by a generally slow movement and which can affect all the slopes of a valley or a mountain range (Agliardi and al., 2001, 2009; Panek and Klimes., 2016). The DSGSD is identified in many mountains (ex: Alps, Alaska, Rocky Mountains, Andes…) and it can affect both isolated low relief and very high mountain ranges (Panek and Klimes., 2016). This deep instability are identified in many case like the origin zone for important landslide like the example of La Clapière landslide in the Alpes Maritimes (Bigot-Cormier et al., 2005). The DSGSD represent an important object we must understand to anticipate catastrophic landslides.</p><p>          Actually, many factors that could be at the origin or controlling the evolution of DSGSD have been identified such as for example the structural heritage, the climate or the tectonic activity (Agliardi 2000; 2009; 2013; Jomard 2006; Sanchez et al., 2009; Zorzi et al., 2013; Panek and Klimes., 2016; Ostermann and Sanders., 2017; Blondeau 2018). The long-term and short-term evolution of DSGSD is still poorly understood but represents an important point to characterize in order to predict future major landslides. A first inventory of DSGSD began to be carried out by certain studies such as Blondeau 2018 or Crosta et al 2013 in the Alps. These same studies have also started to prioritize the factors controlling the evolution of DSGSD.</p><p>          It is in order to better understand the short-term (<100 years) and long-term (> 100 years) evolution of the DSGSD of the French Alpine massifs and the link with the occurrence of landslides, that this thesis project is developed. The main objective of this project, will be proposed models of the evolution of DSGSD since the last glaciations. But also to propose key interpretations of the future evolution to locate the areas likely to initiate landslides. Two study areas in the French Alpine massifs were chosen because they represent areas of referencing and localization gaps in DSGSD: Beaufortain and Queyras. They have the advantage of having a low lithological diversity making it possible to simplify the identification of the factors influencing the evolution of DSGSD. A geomorphological analysis on satellite data and on the ground is carried out to locate the DSGSD. Several dating (<sup>14</sup>C, <sup>10</sup>Be or <sup>36</sup>Cl) will be carried out to reconstruct the history of these objects and understand the factors that controlled their evolution.</p>

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