scholarly journals Optima TB: A tool to help optimally allocate tuberculosis spending

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. e1009255
Author(s):  
Lara Goscé ◽  
Gerard J. Abou Jaoude ◽  
David J. Kedziora ◽  
Clemens Benedikt ◽  
Azfar Hussain ◽  
...  

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting.

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S538-S539
Author(s):  
Erin Arthurs ◽  
Ben Parker ◽  
Ian Jacob ◽  
Debbie Becker ◽  
Amy Lee ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Current antiretroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically improved outcomes for people living with HIV (PLWHIV), however adherence to daily oral dosing remains a challenge for some. New, long-acting (LA) ARTs which are directly administered by physicians eliminate the need to adhere to daily oral dosing and may improve clinical outcomes. The study objective was to evaluate costs and QALYs associated with improved adherence achieved via a novel, directly-observed therapy (DOT) of a monthly LA injectable ART, compared to standard of care (SoC), daily oral therapy. Methods A published Markov cohort state-transition model was adapted to model the impact of treatment adherence and subsequent disease transmission. Without the need to adhere to daily dosing, the efficacy of the injectable was modelled independent of adherence whereas virologic suppression in the SoC arm was adjusted to reflect published data on adherence to daily dosing (8.12% below optimal levels observed in clinical trials). Results This evidence-based approach of accounting for adherence revealed an increase in lifetime costs for oral SOC of approximately $850, and QALY loss of 0.109 when compared to results without accounting for adherence. Disease transmission results yielded 3 cases averted of HIV per 1,000 patients with LA’s impact on adherence. Conclusion In the absence of comparative adherence estimates between a LA, injectable DOT and daily oral therapy in the real world, an evidence-based approach provides a method to address the uncertainty around the true impact on costs and QALYs of a novel mode of administration. Disclosures Erin Arthurs, MSc, GlaxoSmithKline (Employee) Ben Parker, MSc, HEOR Ltd. (Employee) Ian Jacob, MSc, HEOR Ltd (Employee) Debbie Becker, MSc, GSK (Consultant) Amy Lee, MSc, PhD, GSK (Consultant) Olivia Hayward, PhD, HEOR ltd. (Employee) Vasiliki Chounta, MSc, GlaxoSmithKline (Shareholder)ViiV Healthcare (Employee) Sarah-Jane Anderson, PhD, GlaxoSmithKline (Employee, Shareholder) Nicolas Van de Velde, PhD, GlaxoSmithKline (Shareholder)ViiV Healthcare (Employee)


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego

AbstractEpidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ($$R_t$$ R t ). The relationship between public health interventions and $$R_t$$ R t was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial $$R_t$$ R t patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, $$R_t$$ R t , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating $$R_t$$ R t every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future $$R_t$$ R t (75 days lag), while a lower $$R_t$$ R t was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated $$R_t$$ R t produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when $$R_t$$ R t was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated $$R_t$$ R t values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatima Khadadah ◽  
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari ◽  
Ahmad Alhashemi ◽  
Dari Alhuwail ◽  
Bader Al-Saif ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait. Methods We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e ). We estimated the basic reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_0 $$ R 0 ) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios. Results We estimate $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e at 1·08 (95% CI: 1·00–1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03–2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04–1·34) and 1·75 (1·26–2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82–1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30–3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2. Conclusion Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Tinevimbo Shiri ◽  
Marc Evans ◽  
Carla A. Talarico ◽  
Angharad R. Morgan ◽  
Maaz Mussad ◽  
...  

Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 715-715
Author(s):  
Virginia Sun ◽  
David D. Smith ◽  
Lily L. Lai ◽  
Carrie Chong ◽  
Marcia Grant

715 Background: Bowel dysfunction is common following treatment for colorectal cancer (CRC), with substantial impact on survivors’ quality of life (QOL). There are few evidence-based protocols to support positive adjustments to bowel function changes. The purpose of this study was to assess CRC survivors’ bowel dysfunction related information needs following surgery. Methods: CRC survivors who were within 1-3 months post-resection (n=37) completed questionnaires on bowel function, fecal incontinence specific QOL, and bowel dysfunction needs. Six randomly selected participants were interviewed to further explore unmet needs. Quantitative data were summarized using descriptive statistics for all subscales and individual items. Qualitative data were interpreted through content analysis methods. Results: The mean number of daily bowel movements was 5.5 (range 2-10). Many survivors reported incomplete bowel evacuation (66%) and increased urgency/frequency (75%). More problems were reported on the impact of diet on function (X=12, SD=3.2) and urgency/soilage (X=13.5, SD=4.5). Lower QOL scores were observed for the impact of dysfunction on lifestyle (X=2.7, SD=1.0) and coping behavior (X=2.7, SD=0.9). Survivors reported unmet information needs for the following: 1) managing bowel dysfunction in an emergency; 2) type of foods that are helpful or not helpful with bowel function; and 3) talking to others who share the same experience. The majority (75%) desired to participate in a rehabilitation program, and preferred to receive content before treatments or discharge from hospital following surgery. Conclusions: CRC survivors report unmet bowel dysfunction related needs, and desire more information and strategies to help with managing changes to their bowel patterns. Evidence-based interventions that are timely and personalized are needed to support long-term, positive adjustments following treatment.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego

Abstract To date, many studies have argued the potential impact of public health interventions on flattening the epidemic curve of SARS-CoV-2. Most of them have focused on simulating the impact of interventions in a region of interest by manipulating contact patterns and key transmission parameters to reflect different scenarios. Our study looks into the evolution of the daily effective reproduction number during the epidemic via a stochastic transmission model. We found this measure (although model-dependent) provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. This epidemiological parameter when updated in real-time can also provide better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found a substantial variation in the effect of public health interventions on the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 transmission over time and across countries, that could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions. This suggests that further knowledge about the idiosyncrasy of their implementation and effectiveness is required. Although sustained containment measures have successfully lowered growth in disease transmission, more than half of the 101 studied countries failed to maintain the effective reproduction number close to or below 1. This resulted in continued growth in reported cases. Finally, we were able to predict with reasonable accuracy which countries would experience outbreaks in the next 30 days.


Hematology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
pp. 538-541
Author(s):  
Amanda E. Jacobson-Kelly ◽  
Bethany T. Samuelson Bannow

Abstract Up to two-thirds of menstruating women experience abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) when treated with oral anticoagulants. However, the true prevalence of AUB for specific agents remains uncertain, as many of these episodes, while interfering significantly with quality of life and overall health, are not captured by definitions of major bleeding (MB) or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (CRNMB) used in clinical trials. A 2017 systematic review determined that women taking rivaroxaban, but not edoxaban or apixaban, had a twofold higher risk of AUB than women taking warfarin. Since then, new data have become available from extension trials, cancer-associated venous thromboembolism trials, pediatric trials, and a few observational studies specifically examining AUB as an outcome. Reported rates of uterine CRNMB were low (around 1%) and similar for rivaroxaban and apixaban in all these studies, and no episodes of uterine bleeding meeting MB criteria were reported. Rates of AUB not meeting MB or CRNMB criteria were much higher, affecting up to 50% of women on rivaroxaban. Only 1 such study included women on apixaban, and no AUB was reported. In pediatric trials, 19% of girls experienced menorrhagia when treated with rivaroxaban. In conclusion, rates of uterine MB and CRNMB were low in all studies, but rates of other types of AUB not meeting these criteria ranged from 15.8% to 50%. We conclude that AUB is underreported due to the limitations of MB/CRNMB criteria despite its substantial impact on quality of life. We urge future investigators to include broader definitions of AUB to better capture the impact of this outcome in menstruating women treated with oral anticoagulants.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Hernández-Huerta ◽  
Octavio Pérez-Maqueo ◽  
Miguel Equihua Zamora

*Full article is in SpanishEnglish Abstract:At the RISC 2017 International Congress, we reflected on the possibility of achieving a “sustainable, integral and coherent development.” We primarily report here on the panel of Mexican experts who shared their experiences on issues such as the impact of the international agenda on the local policy priorities, the relevance of the participation of local stakeholders and the occurrence of inconsistencies throughout the process of design and implementation of development policies. In addition, other experiences were presented on these issues, some of which are included in this special issue. The general conclusion was that not only is it possible to articulate a sustainable, integral and coherent development but also that approaches and tools are already emerging that favor it through an evidence-based policy management and the use of the growing “environmental big data” that already exists.Spanish Abstract: En el Congreso internacional RISC 2017 se reflexionó sobre la posibilidad de lograr un “desarrollo sostenible, integral y coherente”. En este artículo nos referimos principalmente al panel de expertos mexicanos que compartieron sus experiencias con nosotros sobre asuntos como el impacto de la agenda internacional sobre la local, la relevancia de la participación de los actores locales y la ocurrencia de incoherencias a lo largo del proceso de diseño y aplicación de las políticas para el desarrollo. Además, se expusieron otras experiencias sobre estos asuntos, que han sido recogidas en este número especial. La conclusión general es que se estima que no sólo es posible articular un desarrollo sostenible, integral y coherente, sino que están emergiendo enfoques y herramientas que favorecen propiciarlo a través de la gestión basada en evidencia y el aprovechamiento del creciente “big data ambiental” que ya está existe.French Abstract:Lors du congrès international Consortium pour la Recherche comparative sur l’intégration régionale et la cohésion sociale (RISC) 2017, organisé en coopération avec le programme d’innovation pour l’intégrité dans la gestion de l’environnement pour le développement et soutenu par des données massives (big data) et un apprentissage automatisé (i-Gamma), nous avons réfléchi à la possibilité de parvenir à un “développement durable, intégral et cohérent”. L’événement a ouvert de multiples opportunités de discussions sur le sujet, mais cette introduction est basée sur le panel d’experts mexicains qui ont partagé leurs expériences avec nous sur des questions telles que l’impact de l’agenda international à l’échelle locale, la pertinence de la participation des acteurs locaux et le surgissement d’incohérences tout au long du processus de conception et de mise en oeuvre des politiques de développement. Nous ferons également référence à d’autres expériences présentées autour de ces questions, en mettant l’accent sur les contributions de ce numéro spécial. En conclusion générale, nous pensons qu’il n’est pas seulement possible d’articuler un développement de manière durable, intégrale et cohérente, mais que des approches et des outils sont déjà en train d’émerger et favorisent une gestion fondée sur des données probantes et l’utilisation des « données environnementales à grande échelle » déjà existantes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis D. Brown ◽  
Sarah M. Chilenski ◽  
Rebecca Wells ◽  
Eric C. Jones ◽  
Janet A. Welsh ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Over 5000 community anti-drug coalitions operating in the USA serve as a cornerstone of federal drug prevention. These coalitions, however, have demonstrated effectiveness in preventing substance use only when they use technical assistance (TA) and implement evidence-based programs (EBPs). The absence of TA and EBP implementation by coalitions is a key research-to-practice gap. The Coalition Check-Up TA system is designed to fill this gap by supporting community coalition implementation of EBPs. Existing TA models for evidence-based coalition approaches are resource intensive and coalition model specific. The Coalition Check-Up is a lower cost strategy that works with a variety of types of coalitions to support sustainable implementation of EBPs. This study protocol describes a hybrid type 3 effectiveness-implementation trial applying Wandersman’s Interactive Systems Framework to test the effects of the Coalition Check-Up on coalition EBP implementation capacity and outcomes. The Interactive Systems Framework outlines how the prevention support system—especially TA—bolsters EBP dissemination and implementation. Methods Using a cluster randomized controlled design, this trial will test the overall effectiveness of the Coalition Check-Up, including how it contributes to EBP implementation and prevention of youth substance use. The first aim is to estimate the impact of the Coalition Check-Up on coalitions’ capacity to do their work. We will recruit 68 anti-drug coalitions for random assignment to the Coalition Check-Up or “TA as usual” condition. We will evaluate whether the Coalition Check-Up improves coalition capacity using measures of coalition member responses about team processes, coalition network composition, and collaborative structure. Our second aim is to estimate the impact of the Coalition Check-Up on implementation of EBPs, and our third aim is to estimate the impact of the Coalition Check-Up on youth substance use. Discussion This project will clarify how the Coalition Check-Up, a scalable approach to TA due to its low cost, affects coalition capacity to support EBP implementation. Analyses also provide insight into causal pathways from the prevention support system to the prevention delivery system outlined by the Interactive Systems Framework. Results will build the evidence-base for how to support community coalitions’ sustainable implementation of evidence-based prevention programs and policies. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov registration number NCT04592120. Registered on October 19, 2020.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shadrack Osei Frimpong ◽  
Moro Seidu ◽  
Sam Kris Hilton ◽  
Yusuf Ransome ◽  
Elijah Paintsil ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (PARIHS) framework was utilized to design an evidence-based practice, Cocoa360’s COVID Preparedness & Outbreak Prevention Plan (CoCoPOPP), for rural communities in Ghana. Through participatory academic-community team discussion, interactive dissemination, systematic review of evidence about community-based interventions during Ebola, HIV/AIDS, and Influenza outbreaks and effective engagement with local and national stakeholders, CoCoPOPP was developed to be consistent with the PARIHS framework. Methods: Applying the three core elements of the PARIHS framework (evidence, context, and facilitation), the designers developed orientation, logistic needs and planning, and social mobilization. Components of CoCoPOPP also included participant recruitment and training, communication, research, monitoring & evaluation plan, execution, technical assistance, and facilitation. Results: This intervention achieved three (3) main aims: (1) meet a pressing health need during the COVID-19 pandemic in local underserved settings, (2) ensure that the strategy is informed by high-quality evidence from similar interventions in past outbreaks, and (3) evaluate and learn from research on interventions to garner data. Beyond the impact on health outcomes and healthcare services utilization, CoCoPOPP sought to garner data for organizational use and to share insights on pandemic management and control with the Ghanaian government and the broader global health community. Conclusion: The use of evidence-based public health framework, PARIHS, renders CoCoPOPP a replicable community-based model that can be implemented in other rural communities in Ghana and other Sub-Saharan African counties with similar cultural settings.


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