scholarly journals The lower COVID-19 related mortality and incidence rates in Eastern European countries are associated with delayed start of community circulation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243411
Author(s):  
Alban Ylli ◽  
Yan Yan Wu ◽  
Genc Burazeri ◽  
Catherine Pirkle ◽  
Tetine Sentell

Background The purpose of this analysis was to assess the variations in COVID-19 related mortality in relation to the time differences in the commencement of virus circulation and containment measures in the European Region. Methods The data for the current analysis (N = 50 countries) were retrieved from the John Hopkins University dataset on the 7th of May 2020, with countries as study units. A piecewise regression analysis was conducted with mortality and cumulative incidence rates introduced as dependent variables and time interval (days from the 22nd of January to the date when 100 first cases were reported) as the main predictor. The country average life expectancy at birth and outpatient contacts per person per year were statistically adjusted for in the regression model. Results Mortality and incidence were strongly and inversely intercorrelated with days from January 22, respectively -0.83 (p<0.001) and -0.73 (p<0.001). Adjusting for average life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year, between days 33 to 50 from the 22nd of the January, the average mortality rate decreased by 30.1/million per day (95% CI: 22.7, 37.6, p<0.001). During interval 51 to 73 days, the change in mortality was no longer statistically significant but still showed a decreasing trend. A similar relationship with time interval was found for incidence. Life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year were not associated with mortality rate. Conclusion Countries in Europe that had the earliest COVID-19 circulation suffered the worst consequences in terms of health outcomes, specifically mortality. The drastic social isolation measures, quickly undertaken in response to those initial outbreaks appear effective, especially in Eastern European countries, where community circulation started after March 11th. The study demonstrates that efforts to delay the early spread of the virus may have saved an average 30 deaths daily per one million inhabitants.

Author(s):  
Alban Ylli ◽  
Yan Yan Wu ◽  
Genc Burazeri ◽  
Catherine Pirkle ◽  
Tetine Sentell

AbstractBackgroundThe purpose of this analysis was to assess the variations in COVID-19 related mortality and incidence rates in relation to the time differences in the commencement of virus circulation and containment measures in different countries of the European Region.MethodsThe data for the current analysis (N=50 countries) were retrieved from the John Hopkins University dataset on the 7th of May 2020, with countries as study units. A piecewise regression analysis was conducted with mortality and cumulative incidence rates introduced as dependent variables and time interval (days from the 22nd of January to the date when 100 first cases were reported) as the main predictor. The country average life expectancy at birth was statistically adjusted for in the regression model.ResultsMortality and incidence were strongly and inversely intercorrelated with days from January 22, respectively −0.83 (p<.0001) and −0.73 (p<.0001). Adjusting for average life expectancy, between days 33 to 50 from the 22th of the January, the average mortality rate decreased by 30.4/million per day (95% CI: 23.2, 37.1, p<0.0001). During interval 51 to 73 days, the change in mortality was no longer statistically significant but still showed a decreasing trend. A similar relationship with time interval was found in incidence. Life expectancy was not associated with mortality rate.ConclusionCountries in Europe which observed the earliest COVID-19 circulation, suffered the worst consequences in terms of health outcomes, specifically mortality. The drastic social isolation measures, undertaken especially in Eastern European countries, where community circulation started after March 11th, may have been timely. This may explain their significantly lower COVID-related mortality compared with the Western European countries.


1974 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
BF Phillips ◽  
NA Campbell

A population of the whelk Dicathais orbita (Gmelin) at Fish-Hook Bay, Rottnest Island, in Western Australia, was found to have a high annual mortality and hence a low average life expectancy. A longevity of 19 years has been estimated but the average life expectancy is not more than 5 years. The mortality rate of the animals on the reef platforms (1-S = 0.46; M = 0.62) was found to be independent of age. A life table for D. orbita is presented and discussed, and these data compared with data on some other predatory gastropods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. e006422
Author(s):  
Leonardo Villani ◽  
Roberta Pastorino ◽  
Walter Ricciardi ◽  
John Ioannidis ◽  
Stefania Boccia

The objectives of the study were to calculate the standardised mortality rates (SMRs) for COVID-19 in European Union/European Economic Area countries plus the UK and Switzerland and to evaluate the correlation between SMRs and selected indicators in the first versus the subsequent waves until 23 June 2021. We used indirect standardisation (using Italy as the reference) to compute SMRs and considered 16 indicators of health and social well-being, health system capacity and COVID-19 response. The highest SMRs were in Belgium, the UK and Spain in the first wave (1.20–1.84) and in Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia in the subsequent waves (2.50–2.69). Human Development Index (HDI), life expectancy, urbanisation and healthcare expenditure had positive correlations with SMR in the first wave (rho=0.30–0.46), but negative correlations (rho=−0.67 to −0.47) in the subsequent waves. Retail/recreation mobility and transit mobility were negatively correlated with SMR in the first wave, while transit mobility was inversely correlated with SMR in the subsequent waves. The first wave hit most hard countries with high HDI, high life expectancy, high urbanisation, high health expenditures and high tourism. This pattern may reflect higher early community seeding and circulation of the virus. Conversely, in the subsequent waves, this pattern was completely inversed: countries with more resources and better health status did better than eastern European countries. While major SMR differences existed across countries in the first wave, these differences largely dissipated by 23 June 2021, with few exceptions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Robert E. Parker ◽  
Vianett G. Achaval

This paper concerns official “average life expectancy” data, and their use by demographers in a way that appears common-sensical and valid, but are neither. The notion that Americans have, and continue to experience ever-increasing life expectancy is a widely held myth in U.S. society. The Census Bureau states Americans’ life expectancy advanced 30 years between 1900 and 2013. Accompanying this myth is the idea that Americans are generally working longer while experiencing an extended lifespan. But these commonly shared assumptions about American life are dubious. The increase in average life expectancy among Americans has been achieved by reducing the infant mortality rate, not by increasing additional years at the end of the life cycle. An examination of age-specific death rates combined with an understanding of the importance of the infant mortality rate makes the “life expectancy myth” transparent. Upon considering these aspects of official life expectancy, the implications of this misunderstanding, specifically as it pertains to Social Security, will be examined.


2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 79-96
Author(s):  
Stanisława Górecka

Mortality and Longevity in the Central and East Europe - Changes in Years 1990-2005 Political and socioeconomic transformation has significantly influenced demographic processes in Central and East Europe. This was mainly noticeable in behaviours and attitudes concerning forming and developing of families. With regard to the aforementioned behaviours, the populations of analysed countries have adopted to new conditions very quickly, and the demographic parameters have reached values that were almost identical as those in West Europe. The situation developed completely differently in the case of mortality and life expectancy. Differences between Central and East Europe, and West European countries, which were already visible at the beginning of 1990's, have been eliminated considerably slower. Even though, one can observe favourable transformations in life expectancy and the distribution of death causes in the Central and Eastern European countries. Those changes are especially apparent in countries which became members of the European Union in 2004.


2003 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-80
Author(s):  
Balàzs Németh

The challenges of the new millennium are turning everything upside down. Modernisation, globalisation, and a change of paradigm since 1989 have altered our perspectives of the mechanisms by which the societies of Central and Eastern European countries operate. Life expectancy has increased throughout the world, overpopulation has stopped in Europe, and integration movements have exerted increasing influence, constraining societies by outlining and reshaping not only the ‘map of the future’, but also of sub-systems and groups of societies of Central and Eastern Europe. It is evident that, in future societies, the real wealth generated from natural and social resources will depend upon the quality and wealth of human resources. This article scrutinises this issue within the context of lfelong learning.


Author(s):  
Светлана Борисовна Боруцкая ◽  
Наталья Владимировна Харламова ◽  
Сергей Александрович Рудников ◽  
Игорь Николаевич Черных

Скелетный материал из Твери был получен при раскопках Смоленского кладбища на юго-восточной окраине города, из бывшего Загородного посада. Формирование этого некрополя началось в XVIII веке и продолжалось на протяжении двух веков. Наша работа посвящена палеодемографическому исследованию населения города Тверь XVIII–XIX вв. по данным половозрастного определения скелетного материала. В результате исследования можно сделать следующее заключение. Демографическую ситуацию в городе Тверь XVIII–XIX вв. можно считать довольно благополучной, о чем свидетельствует высокий показатель средней продолжительности жизни, относительно невысокий показатель детской смертности, значительная представительность финальной возрастной когорты, низкая смертность в молодом возрасте. На нестандартное соотношение взрослых индивидов по полу в пользу мужчин могли повлиять миграционные процессы, связанные с ростом, строительством и развитие города в XVIII–XIX вв. Skeletal materials from Tver were obtained in the course of excavations at the Smolensk cemetery on the south-eastern outskirts of the city, the former Zagorodny posad (settlement). The necropolis originated in the XVIII century and was used for two centuries. The authors study the paleodemography of the population of Tver in the XVIII–XIX centuries according to the data of the sex and age estimations of the skeletal material. The study showed that the demographic situation in Tver in the XVIII–XIX centuries was relatively sound, as evidenced by the high average life expectancy, a relatively low infant mortality rate, a strong presence of the oldest age group, and low mortality at a young age. The distorted sex ratio of adult individuals in favor of males can be explained by the migration processes associated with the growth and development of the city in the XVIII–XIX centuries.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Hammond-Haley ◽  
A Hartley ◽  
M Essa ◽  
A Delago ◽  
D.C Marshall ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Previously, we identified a growing disparity between Western and Eastern European countries for mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Purpose To describe current trends in mortality from IHD and CVD. Methods IHD and CVD age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for European countries between 1990–2017 were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Edition codes. Jointpoint regression analysis was used to describe trends over this period. Results Between 1990–2017, IHD mortality declined in all included countries except Croatia (+3% in males and +23% in females). Largest mortality improvements were generally seen in Western European countries, including the Netherlands, UK and Sweden, which saw greater than 65% improvements for both sexes. Estonia was a notable exception, which, after the Netherlands, demonstrated the second highest improvement in mortality (−69% in males, −74% in females). Hungary and Greece saw the smallest improvements in IHD mortality (approximately −12% to −27%). Results of jointpoint regression analysis for selected European countries are shown in Figure 1. In 2017 Lithuania had the highest mortality rate in both males and females (279.4/100,000 and 261.3/100,000, respectively) whilst the Netherlands had the lowest mortality in males and females (32.6/100,00 and 15.3/100,000, respectively). This represents an approximately 8.5-fold difference in IHD mortality in males and a 10.5-fold difference in females between these two countries. CVD mortality declined in all included countries between 1990–2017. Estonia saw the greatest improvements in both males and females (−80.8% and −84.9%, respectively), followed by Austria, Portugal and the Czech Republic (over 70% reductions in both sexes). Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania saw the smallest reductions (approximately −17% to −33%). In 2017, Bulgaria had the highest CVD mortality rate in both males and females (149.9/100,000 and 113.1/100,000, respectively), whilst the lowest mortality rate was observed in Austria (21.8/100,000 and 19.5/100,000 for males and females, respectively). This represents an approximately 7-fold difference in CVD mortality in males and a 6-fold difference in females between these two countries. Conclusions IHD and CVD mortality rates continue to decrease for men and women across Europe. While certain Eastern European countries have demonstrated considerable mortality improvements over this observation period, in general the disparity between Eastern and Western Europe persists, with further work required to understand and address these inequalities. Squares: male. Circles: female Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


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