The Myth of Increasing Life Expectancy and Its Social Policy Implications

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Robert E. Parker ◽  
Vianett G. Achaval
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Average Life ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Extended Lifespan

This paper concerns official “average life expectancy” data, and their use by demographers in a way that appears common-sensical and valid, but are neither. The notion that Americans have, and continue to experience ever-increasing life expectancy is a widely held myth in U.S. society. The Census Bureau states Americans’ life expectancy advanced 30 years between 1900 and 2013. Accompanying this myth is the idea that Americans are generally working longer while experiencing an extended lifespan. But these commonly shared assumptions about American life are dubious. The increase in average life expectancy among Americans has been achieved by reducing the infant mortality rate, not by increasing additional years at the end of the life cycle. An examination of age-specific death rates combined with an understanding of the importance of the infant mortality rate makes the “life expectancy myth” transparent. Upon considering these aspects of official life expectancy, the implications of this misunderstanding, specifically as it pertains to Social Security, will be examined.

scholarly journals ОСОБЕННОСТИ ПАЛЕОДЕМОГРАФИИ ГОРОДА ТВЕРЬ XVIII–XIX ВВ. ПО ДАННЫМ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ СМОЛЕНСКОГО КЛАДБИЩА ИЗ БЫВШЕГО ЗАГОРОДНОГО ПОСАДА

2021 ◽  
pp. 311-329
Author(s):  
Светлана Борисовна Боруцкая ◽  
Наталья Владимировна Харламова ◽  
Сергей Александрович Рудников ◽  
Игорь Николаевич Черных
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Average Life ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
The City

Скелетный материал из Твери был получен при раскопках Смоленского кладбища на юго-восточной окраине города, из бывшего Загородного посада. Формирование этого некрополя началось в XVIII веке и продолжалось на протяжении двух веков. Наша работа посвящена палеодемографическому исследованию населения города Тверь XVIII–XIX вв. по данным половозрастного определения скелетного материала. В результате исследования можно сделать следующее заключение. Демографическую ситуацию в городе Тверь XVIII–XIX вв. можно считать довольно благополучной, о чем свидетельствует высокий показатель средней продолжительности жизни, относительно невысокий показатель детской смертности, значительная представительность финальной возрастной когорты, низкая смертность в молодом возрасте. На нестандартное соотношение взрослых индивидов по полу в пользу мужчин могли повлиять миграционные процессы, связанные с ростом, строительством и развитие города в XVIII–XIX вв. Skeletal materials from Tver were obtained in the course of excavations at the Smolensk cemetery on the south-eastern outskirts of the city, the former Zagorodny posad (settlement). The necropolis originated in the XVIII century and was used for two centuries. The authors study the paleodemography of the population of Tver in the XVIII–XIX centuries according to the data of the sex and age estimations of the skeletal material. The study showed that the demographic situation in Tver in the XVIII–XIX centuries was relatively sound, as evidenced by the high average life expectancy, a relatively low infant mortality rate, a strong presence of the oldest age group, and low mortality at a young age. The distorted sex ratio of adult individuals in favor of males can be explained by the migration processes associated with the growth and development of the city in the XVIII–XIX centuries.

scholarly journals Features of machine learning in the study of the main factors of development of countries of the world

2021 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Ludmila Borisova ◽  
Galina Zhukova ◽  
Anna Kuznetsova ◽  
Julie Martin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
The World

The paper analyzes the socio-economic and demographic indicators of life expectancy in the countries of the world. Methods of regression analysis and machine learning are used. Statistically significant indicators that affect life expectancy around the world have been identified. When analyzing the data using machine learning methods, 13 of the 14 analyzed indicators were statistically significant. Significant indicators, in addition to those selected in the regression analysis, were 3: the under-five infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), the Net Barter Terms of Trade Index (2000 = 100), and Imports of goods and services (in % of GDP) (in the regression analysis, only the infant death rate was significant). In addition, it should be noted that there is a significant decrease in the under-five infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) for the EU, CIS and South-East Asian countries compared to the border set in the study for all countries: 4.65 vs. 34.9, a decrease in the birth rate from 2.785 to 1.85, a sharp increase in exports of goods and services: from 23.17 to 80.59, a halving in imports of goods and services, a drop in population growth from 2.105 to 0.85. The performed statistical analysis strongly supports the use of machine learning methods in identifying statistically significant relationships between various indicators that characterize the development of countries, if there are gaps in the data.

Mortality and longevity in the whelk Dicathais orbita (Gmelin)

1974 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
BF Phillips ◽  
NA Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Life Table ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Average Life ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Annual Mortality ◽  
Fish Hook

A population of the whelk Dicathais orbita (Gmelin) at Fish-Hook Bay, Rottnest Island, in Western Australia, was found to have a high annual mortality and hence a low average life expectancy. A longevity of 19 years has been estimated but the average life expectancy is not more than 5 years. The mortality rate of the animals on the reef platforms (1-S = 0.46; M = 0.62) was found to be independent of age. A life table for D. orbita is presented and discussed, and these data compared with data on some other predatory gastropods.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH ANGKA KEMATIAN BAYI TERHADAP ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR BERDASARKAN ESTIMATOR LEAST SQUARE SPINE

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Anies Yulinda W ◽  
Trias Novia L. ◽  
Melati Tegarina ◽  
Nur Chamidah
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Nonparametric Model ◽  
High Flexibility ◽  
Model Approach

Life expectancy can be used to evaluate the government's performance for improving the welfare of the population in the health sector. Life expectancy is closely related to infant mortality rate. Theoretically, decreasing of infant mortality rate will cause increasing of life expectancy. A statistical method that can be used to model life expectancy is nonparametric regression model based on least square spline estimator. This method provides high flexibility to accommodate pattern of data by using smoothing technique. The best estimated model is order one spline model with one knot based on minimum generalized cross validation (GCV) value of 0.607. Each increasing of one infant mortality rate unit will cause decreasing of life expectancy of  0.2314 for infant mortality rate less than 27, and of  0.0666 for infant mortality rate more than and equals to 27. In addition, based on mean square error (MSE) of 0.492 and R2value of 76.59% for nonparametric model approach compared with MSE of 0.634 and R2 value of 71.8%  for parametric model approach, we conclude that the use of nonparametric model approach based on least square spline estimator is better than that of parametric model approach.

scholarly journals Empirical analysis of the push factors of human capital flight in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwaseyi Popogbe ◽  
Oluyemi Theophilus Adeosun
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Migration Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Push Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Capital Flight

Purpose Human capital flight from Nigeria to developed countries has remained a topical issue. This paper aims to empirically analyze the push factors for the migrants who explore the various legal migrant schemes from a macro perspective. The authors examine human capital development and its role in contributing to human capital flight to more developed counties. Design/methodology/approach This paper is anchored on the push–pull model. Using secondary data from 1990 to 2019, the authors look at the relationship between human capital flight and variables such as life expectancy, infant mortality rate, population growth rate and Nigeria’s unemployment rate. The auto-regressive lag model (ARDL) was adopted to estimate the empirical relationship among these variables. Findings The results from the ARDL model suggest a positive relationship exists between population growth rate and migration rate. A negative relationship was, however, observed between life expectancy and migration rate. This study also found that an increase in the infant mortality rate negatively impacted migration significantly. Therefore, an increase in infant mortality rate lowered the migration rate. Finally, an increase in the unemployment rate increased migration; however, insignificantly. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study are limited to the push factors influencing migration out of Nigeria. These factors are also restricted to variables for which data can be derived under the study’s scope. The results of this study have far-reaching implications, especially for policymakers and citizens alike. Better human capital development through enhanced life expectancy and reduced population in Nigeria will reduce the migration rate. Therefore, this study calls for the doubling of developmental and infrastructural efforts at all levels of governance. Originality/value This paper’s importance lies in its ability to elucidate push factors that influenced migration out of Nigeria empirically. An empirical approach to the subject matter will explain these factors and the degree to which they influence migration. This will guide the policy-making process in curbing brain drain, which is a major challenge in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Analisis Angka Harapan Hidup di Jawa Timur Tahun 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Lina Septi Danasari ◽  
Arief Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Health Improvement ◽  
Central Java ◽  
The Government

Life expectancy is one of the indicators to calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) which determined by infants’ health, toddlers’ health, frequency of liveborn children and death rate in the community. East Java Province has four dominant cultural areas such as Mataraman including the western part of the border of Central Java to Kediri, Madura including Bangkalan to Pamekasan, Arek including north coast of Surabaya to Malang and Tapal Kuda including Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Situbondo, Bondowoso, Lumajang and Jember. Those four cultural areas have different characteristic that can affect public health status especially life expectancy in East Java Province. The analysis aimed to know the correlation between infant mortality rate and life expectancy and to know the differences of life expectancy among four cultural areas in East Java year 2015. This analysis used secondary data obtained from Central Bureau of Statistic of East Java on May, 2017. The data were life expectancy as dependent variable, infant mortality rate as independent variable and cultural areas in East Java as grouping variables. The result showed that there was correlation between infant mortality rate with life expectancy (p=0.000) and there was different in life expectancy among four cultural areas in East Java year 2015 (p=0.000) such as cultural areas Mataraman-Madura, Mataraman-Tapal Kuda and Arek-Tapal Kuda. It suggested the government to continue improving the socio-economic welfare of the community and public health improvement in the Tapal Kuda area which had high infant mortality rate and low life expectancy.

scholarly journals The lower COVID-19 related mortality and incidence rates in Eastern European countries are associated with delayed start of community circulation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243411
Author(s):  
Alban Ylli ◽  
Yan Yan Wu ◽  
Genc Burazeri ◽  
Catherine Pirkle ◽  
Tetine Sentell
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Average Life ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Related Mortality

Background The purpose of this analysis was to assess the variations in COVID-19 related mortality in relation to the time differences in the commencement of virus circulation and containment measures in the European Region. Methods The data for the current analysis (N = 50 countries) were retrieved from the John Hopkins University dataset on the 7th of May 2020, with countries as study units. A piecewise regression analysis was conducted with mortality and cumulative incidence rates introduced as dependent variables and time interval (days from the 22nd of January to the date when 100 first cases were reported) as the main predictor. The country average life expectancy at birth and outpatient contacts per person per year were statistically adjusted for in the regression model. Results Mortality and incidence were strongly and inversely intercorrelated with days from January 22, respectively -0.83 (p<0.001) and -0.73 (p<0.001). Adjusting for average life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year, between days 33 to 50 from the 22nd of the January, the average mortality rate decreased by 30.1/million per day (95% CI: 22.7, 37.6, p<0.001). During interval 51 to 73 days, the change in mortality was no longer statistically significant but still showed a decreasing trend. A similar relationship with time interval was found for incidence. Life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year were not associated with mortality rate. Conclusion Countries in Europe that had the earliest COVID-19 circulation suffered the worst consequences in terms of health outcomes, specifically mortality. The drastic social isolation measures, quickly undertaken in response to those initial outbreaks appear effective, especially in Eastern European countries, where community circulation started after March 11th. The study demonstrates that efforts to delay the early spread of the virus may have saved an average 30 deaths daily per one million inhabitants.

Health Status, Government Health Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Toda–Yamamoto Causality Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674792096340
Author(s):  
Avinash Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Government Health ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Health Expenditure

This article attempts to examine the causal linkage among government health expenditure, health status and economic growth in India for the period from 1981–1982 to 2015–2016. The results of Johansen co-integration test indicate that government health expenditure, health status and economic growth have long-run relationship in India. The results of Toda–Yamamoto causality test showed that there existed unidirectional causal relationship running from government health expenditure to gross domestic product—GDP (economic growth); GDP (economic growth) to life expectancy; government health expenditure to infant mortality rate and infant mortality rate to life expectancy. On the other hand, there is no evidence showing causality in any direction between infant mortality rate to GDP (economic growth) and government health expenditure to life expectancy. The study strongly confirmed that the government health expenditure has an effect on GDP (economic growth) and infant mortality rate (which depicts health status) in India. The health outcomes, namely life expectancy and infant mortality rare, reveal unidirectional causality between them. Therefore, the study concludes that policymakers and the government should pay proper attention to the health sector in order to ultimately achieve economic growth in the country.

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