scholarly journals A model for ordinal responses with heterogeneous status quo outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Sirchenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Switching Model ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Choice Variable ◽  
Biased Estimates ◽  
Policy Interest

Abstract The decisions to reduce, leave unchanged, or increase a choice variable (such as policy interest rates) are often characterized by abundant status quo outcomes that can be generated by different processes. The decreases and increases may also be driven by distinct decision-making paths. Neither conventional nor zero-inflated models for ordinal responses adequately address these issues. This paper develops a flexible endogenously switching model with three latent regimes, which create separate processes for interest rate hikes and cuts and overlap at a no-change outcome, generating three different types of status quo decisions. The model is not only favored by statistical tests but also produces economically more meaningful inference with respect to the existing models, which deliver biased estimates in the simulations.

Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Cristiane Gea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Policy Interest

Purpose The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries. Findings Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries. Practical implications The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Originality/value Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA DAN INFLASI TERHADAP KREDIT DAN PEMBIAYAAN (Studi Kasus pada Bank Umum Konvensional dan Bank Umum Syariah periode 2011-2015)

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-97
Author(s):  
Hasannudin Nursalim Putra ◽  
Irnin Miladyan Aryq ◽  
Lilik Jazilatul Mufidah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Interest

Inflationary pressures that often time there was a can shake economy the state, to face inflationarypressures one of the efforts of the country to control the inflation is by issuing policy interest rate by theIndonesia bank as central financial policy monetary and fiscal. The banks have the role of to control the rateinflation. The interest rate that set by the bank will affect the level distribution credit of bank conventional andfinancing of sharia bank. For that researchers want to see the influence of direct and indirect interest rates tocredit and financingand inflation as variable intervening. The kind of research is quantitative with the sampleof six general Sharia Bank and the generalconventional bank in Indonesia period 2011 until 2015 taken withpurposive sampling. Themethod is path analysis. Based onsignificant test, the first significant test has resultthat interest rates significant of inflation. Thesecond significant testhas results that the interest rate notsignificant on the distribution credit and financing. The third significant test has result that inflation is notsignificant to distribution credit and financing. So this is can concluded that inflation will not be variableintervening for the distribution credit and financing.

scholarly journals Transmission of Monetary Policy through Credit Interest Rates in Turkey: A Microeconomic Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Ilyas Siklar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Loan Interest Rates ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Interest

This study aims to examine the monetary policy transmission through the credit channel from a microeconomic perspective by using the fixed effect dynamic panel model. It is estimated to what extent policy interest rate changes are transferred to the short-term interest rate depending on the type of loan. Results confirm that there is a high degree of inertia in both the commercial and consumer loan interest rates. In terms of the transmission of monetary policy, changes in policy interest rates are transferred to commercial loan interest rates by 11% and consumer loan interest rates by 15% in the short term. These values reveal that policy interest rate changes are gradually transmitted to market interest rates. Variables representing bank size, leverage, and market power in terms of distinctive characteristics have a limited impact on both commercial and consumer loan interest rates in the analyzing period. However, the market share of a bank has a significant impact on both commercial and consumer loan rates.

scholarly journals Central Bank Communication and Policy Interest Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Haryo Kuncoro
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Expectation Gap ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Policy Interest

Central bank communications play an important role in the monetary policy. In the inflation-targeting frameworks, central bank communications might guide public to shape inflation expectations and then determine actual inflation rates through which the policy interest rates policy would manage them. This paper studied the impact and central bank monetary policy communications on the policy interest rate. Unlike other studies, this paper uses two stages. First, we estimate the impact of central bank communication on the inflation expectation gap. Second, we use the estimated value of inflation expectation gap to predict the policy interest rate. The study found evidence that economic agents analyse the Governor Board of Central Bank of Indonesia meeting decisions every month to shape their inflation expectation. Therefore, the difference between inflation expectation and actual inflation tends to narrow. The inflation expectation gap affects the policy interest rates in Indonesia. In other words, the policy interest rates can control the inflation rate and anchor expectations as required by the inflation-targeting framework.

scholarly journals Interest Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-356
Author(s):  
Chandra Utama ◽  
Rizqianisa Septiani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Direct Channel ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Policy Interest

This paper examines the direct and indirect interest rate pass-trough (IRPT) from policy interest rate (BI rate) to banks’ retail interest rates in Indonesia during a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime. We use montly data of policy interest rate (BI rate) as well as interest rates for interbank money market (interbank), deposit, and loan during July 2005 to May 2015. We employ Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to find the significant of IRPT and the speed of adjustment process of IRPT. The study suggests the existence of direct and indirect IRPT in Indonesia. The change of policy rate is transmitted quicker in the direct channel compared to the indirect channel. However, indirect channel is more stable than the direct channel. We conclude that the direct and indirect IRPT are complementary.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.4819

PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN DAN VOLUME PINJAMAN TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS (ROA) PADA PT. BPR MITRA DAYA MANDIRI PERIODE TAHUN 2008 SAMPAI 2010

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (02) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Rizki Ahmad Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
National Development ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Banking Business ◽  
Business Function

Bank as a business organization has become a tool and a means of supporting the liquidity of the business , as a consequence, banks are required to become a business organisasasi proper and prudent in the distribution of funds in the form of credit . It has been recognized correctly by the community because the business function other than as a financial intermediary bank , also the agent of development that have an obligation to support the equitable distribution of national development efforts . Thus the function of banking business as the source of funds and lending function must be balanced in order to create proper banking .Interest Rate Loans positive and significant impact on Return on Assets ( ROA ) . This suggests that the higher the Loan Interest Rate Return on Assets ( ROA ) acquired banks will be even greater because of the higher Interest Rate Loans , the greater the income received from the debtor banks because the rate of return on bank loans . The greater the bank's profitability ( ROA ) obtained by the bank , which means the financial performance has improved or increasedVolume of Loans positive and significant impact on Return on Assets ( ROA ) . This suggests that the greater the volume of loans then Return on Assets ( ROA ) acquired banks will be even greater because of the greater volume of loans , the higher the income received from the debtor banks because the rate of return on bank loans . The greater the bank's profitability ( ROA ) obtained by the bank , which means the financial performance has improved or increased . Adjusted R Square value of 0.121 indicates that 12.1 % of the dependent variable of financial performance proxied by ROA can be explained by the two independent variables , namely interest rates and credit and loan volumes , while the remaining 87.9 % is explained by other factors outside the regression model analyzed . This study did not escape from the limitations . Limitations contained in this research can be seen from the value of Adjusted R Square which can only explain 12.1 % or a fraction of the variance of dependent variable , while 87.9 % is influenced by other factors that are not included in the model so that there are many variables that influence but not included in this model . Given the tremendous influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable , it is suggested the need for caution in generalizing the results of this study . Based on the results of statistical tests , the three variables that partially have a significant effect , Interest Rate Loans has the highest influence on ROA , as evidenced by the Beta value of the variable size of the company showed a number greater volume of loans amounting to 1,050 .Keywords : loan rates , loan volume , return on assets

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF SERVICE QUALITY, CORPORATE IMAGE AND INTEREST RATE TO CUSTOMER PURCHASE OF MICRO CREDIT

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
M PS H
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Service Quality ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Corporate Image ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Micro Credit

This study was aimed to determine the effect of service quality, corporate image and credit interest rates to the decision-making of micro credit case studies in Bank Prekreditan Rakyat Karyajatnika Sadaya (BPR KS) Bandung. Research was conducted using a descriptive and verivication studies. The samples used were 110 customers of the eight micro branches of BPR KS in Bandung. Hypothesis test using Structural Equation Model (SEM) to determine the effect of service quality, corporate image and credit interest rates on microcredit decision-either partially or simultaneously. The results showed that the quality of services rated as good by the respondent, BPR KS image is also considered to be good by the consumer. Meanwhile the interest rate offered is low or deemed reasonable by consumer. The result of model testing showed a positive and significant effect between service quality and corporate image of the micro-credit retrieval, while interest rates have a negative effect on the development of decision-making on micro credit. For subsequent researchers can conduct the same research in the different area of environment and cultures characteristics or by changing the variables where loyalty and customer relationship management variables can be developed in future research models.

Quota Women Are Threatening to Men

2017 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 107-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klea Faniko ◽  
Till Burckhardt ◽  
Oriane Sarrasin ◽  
Fabio Lorenzi-Cioldi ◽  
Siri Øyslebø Sørensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Gender Stereotypes ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Preferential Treatment ◽  
Public Sector Employees ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Women In Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Two studies carried out among Albanian public-sector employees examined the impact of different types of affirmative action policies (AAPs) on (counter)stereotypical perceptions of women in decision-making positions. Study 1 (N = 178) revealed that participants – especially women – perceived women in decision-making positions as more masculine (i.e., agentic) than feminine (i.e., communal). Study 2 (N = 239) showed that different types of AA had different effects on the attribution of gender stereotypes to AAP beneficiaries: Women benefiting from a quota policy were perceived as being more communal than agentic, while those benefiting from weak preferential treatment were perceived as being more agentic than communal. Furthermore, we examined how the belief that AAPs threaten men’s access to decision-making positions influenced the attribution of these traits to AAP beneficiaries. The results showed that men who reported high levels of perceived threat, as compared to men who reported low levels of perceived threat, attributed more communal than agentic traits to the beneficiaries of quotas. These findings suggest that AAPs may have created a backlash against its beneficiaries by emphasizing gender-stereotypical or counterstereotypical traits. Thus, the framing of AAPs, for instance, as a matter of enhancing organizational performance, in the process of policy making and implementation, may be a crucial tool to countering potential backlash.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1980-2015

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Risna Risna
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
State Spending ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of government spending, the money supply, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia against inflation.This study uses secondary data. Secondary data were obtained directly from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. It can be said that there are factors affecting inflationas government spending, money supply, and interest rates BI. The reseach uses a quantitative approach to methods of e-views in the data. The results of analysis of three variables show that state spending significantand positive impact on inflationin Indonesia, the money supply significantand negative to inflationin Indonesia, BI rate a significantand positive impact on inflation in Indonesia

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