scholarly journals Az új koronavírus okozta járvány első hullámának jellemzői és esetleges kapcsolata a tuberkulózis elleni oltottsággal

2021 ◽  
Vol 162 (4) ◽  
pp. 123-134
Author(s):  
Blanka Emődy-Kiss ◽  
Ágnes Pataki ◽  
Gábor Deli ◽  
Sándor Papp ◽  
Mária Mátyus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
New Type ◽  
Wallis Anova

Összefoglaló. Bevezetés: A COVID–19-járvány az egész világon elterjedt. A járvány Európában való első megjelenése során megfigyelhető volt, hogy a terjedés mértéke kisebb azokban az országokban, ahol a tuberkulózis elleni védekezésül kiterjedt BCG-vakcinációt végeznek. Célkitűzés: A jelen munkában olyan összefüggéseket igyekeztünk feltárni, amelyek befolyásolták a járványterjedés paramétereit, különös figyelemmel a BCG-vakcinációs gyakorlatra. Módszerek: A világ összes olyan országára vonatkozóan, ahol megfelelő minőségű statisztikai adatok álltak rendelkezésünkre, vizsgáltuk a járvány terjedésének első hullámát. A mozgóátlagolt járványgörbéken elemeztük a járvány időtartamát, a tetőzés mértékét, a fertőzöttek és a halálesetek egymillió lakosra vetített számát. Figyelembe vettük az országok gazdasági mutatóit (GDP, légi forgalom, a tengeri hajózás mértéke). Statisztikai analízis: A vizsgált paraméterek nem mutattak normális eloszlást, így nemparaméteres próbákkal (rangkorreláció, Kruskal–Wallis ANOVA) statisztikai kapcsolatot kerestünk a járványterjedés mértéke, a BCG-vakcináció és más paraméterek között. Eredmények: A járvány gyorsan elterjedt a világon, de mégis, február első három hetében a terjedésben egy szünet volt megfigyelhető. A járványhullám Európában nagyjából egyszerre ért véget. A járvány által leginkább azok az országok érintettek, ahol nem alkalmaztak rendszeres BCG-vakcinációt, bár a képet bonyolítja, hogy ezek az országok gazdaságilag többnyire fejlettek. A halálozási rátában nem mutatkozott ilyen különbség. Következtetés: Statisztikailag igazolható tény, hogy a vakcinációt végző országokból az első hullám alatt kevesebb fertőzöttet jelentettek; az ok-okozati összefüggés bizonytalan, hiszen az országok múltja, szokásai, társadalmi berendezkedése, gazdasági fejlettsége nem azonos. Eredményeink alátámasztják az összehasonlító kontaktkutatás fontosságát annak tisztázására, hogy a BCG-oltás hogyan befolyásolja az emberek vírussal szembeni érzékenységét, valamint a vírus terjesztésének, továbbadásának képességét. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(4): 123–134. Summary. Introduction: The new type of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic is widespread throughout the world. During the outbreak of the pandemic in Europe it was revealed that the rate of spread was lower in countries where extensive BCG vaccination is used to protect against tuberculosis. Objective: In the present work, we sought to explore relationships that influenced epidemic spreading parameters, with particular reference to BCG vaccination practice. Methods: We examined the first wave of the spread of the epidemic for all countries in the world where adequate quality statistics were available. We analyzed the duration of the epidemic, the extent of the peak, the number of infected people, and the number of deaths per million inhabitants with the moving average of epidemic curves. We took into account the economic indicators of the countries (GDP, air traffic and extent of maritime shipping). Statistical analysis: The examined parameters did not show a normal distribution, so we looked for a statistical relationship with non-parametric tests (rank correlation, Kruskal–Wallis ANOVA) between the extents of epidemic spread, BCG vaccination and other parameters. Results: The epidemic spread rapidly around the world, but still, in the first three weeks of February, there was a pause in the spread. The first wave of epidemics ended roughly at the same time in Europe. Those countries are the most affected by the epidemic where regular BCG vaccination has not been used, although the picture is complicated by the fact that these countries are mostly economically developed. There was no such difference observable in the mortality rate. Conclusion: Although this work clearly demonstrates that during the first wave of the pandemic, fewer infections were reported worldwide in countries where BCG vaccination is obligatory, however, the causal relationship is uncertain, as the countries’ past, customs, social organization and economic development are different. Our results support the necessity of comparative contact tracing to clarify how BCG vaccination affects people’s susceptibility to this new type of coronavirus as well as their ability to spread and transmit the virus. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(4): 123–134.

scholarly journals Forecasting of New Cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models

2020 ◽  
pp. 135-146
Author(s):  
Olumide Sunday Adesina ◽  
Samson Adeniyi Onanaye ◽  
Dorcas Okewole ◽  
Amanze C. Egere
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Arfima Models ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moving Average Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Arfima Model

The emergence of global pandemic known as COVID-19 has impacted significantly on human lives and measures have been taken by government all over the world to minimize the rate of spread of the virus, one of which is by enforcing lockdown. In this study, Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) Models was used to model and forecast what the daily new cases of COVID-19 would have been ten days after the lockdown was eased in Nigeria and compare to the actual new cases for the period when the lockdown was eased.  The proposed model ARFIMA model was compared with ARIMA (1, 0, 0), and ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and found to outperform the classical ARIMA models based on AIC and BIC values. The results show that the rate of spread of COVID-19 would have been significantly less if the strict lockdown had continued. ARFIMA model was further used to model what new cases of COVID-19 would be ten days ahead starting from 31st of August 2020. Therefore, this study recommends that government should further enforce measures to reduce the spread of the virus if business must continue as usual.

scholarly journals Saliva as a Biological Sample for COVID-19 Diagnosis?

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-110
Author(s):  
D. Kafle ◽  
D. Sapkota
Keyword(s):  
Biological Sample ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Healthcare Personnel ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Active Involvement ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Saliva Collection

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become a severe global health problem affecting almost every country in the world. Compared to other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 is considered to be more infectious thereby leading to a rapid spread of this disease across the world. The effective control of this disease relies on timely diagnosis, proper isolation, contact tracing of the infected people and segregation of vulnerable group from potential contamination. Currently, the gold standard diagnostic test for COVID-19 is real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using nasopharyngeal swab (NPS). However, NPS collection has several shortcomings. Besides requiring an active involvement of healthcare personnel and personal protective equipment (PPE), NPS collection is uncomfortable for the patient as it can induce coughing, gagging, vomiting and even bleeding. Evidence from current studies indicates that saliva has a potential to be useful as an alternative biological sample for COVID-19 diagnosis. Indeed, saliva as a biological sample offers several advantages over NPS. Saliva collection is better accepted by patients, it can be self-collected and does not require PPE and active involvement of healthcare personnel. Moreover, preliminary results indicate that the sensitivity and specificity of saliva for COVID-19 diagnosis is similar to that of NPS. This summarizes recent observations in the field and discusses the potential use of saliva for COVID-19 diagnosis.

scholarly journals National COVID-19 Health Contact Tracing and Monitoring System: A Sustainable Global and Namibian E-business and E-governance Context

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-30
Author(s):  
Nikodemus Angula ◽  
◽  
Faye Tjaheja Kandjeo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Public Place ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Infected People ◽  
System A ◽  
The World

Covid-19 is the destructive world's most recent pandemic that is experienced in every part of the world. This deadly virus affects different people in different ways. Most infected people will develop mild to moderate illness and recover without hospitalisation. Covid-19 most common symptoms include fever, dry and tiredness. It is against this background that in Namibian health environment the country uses a manual system to record public member's demographic information when visiting public places which do not allow tracing and monitoring of every public member who visited the 14 regions in the country. Therefore, the present study developed a National COVID-19 health contact tracing and monitoring system which will allow every public member who visits an enclosed public place by capturing their demographic information as well as the date and time the facility was visited. The system replaces the paper-based method of recording the information of people visiting public places with an entrance that allows the coming in and out of people. The system will also allow for real-time monitoring of temperature changes of individuals.

scholarly journals Epidemic Model Analysis of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 328 ◽  
pp. 06002
Author(s):  
Dayat Hidayat ◽  
Edwin Setiawan Nugraha
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Very High ◽  
Two Equilibria

Covid-19 is a very extraordinary case not only in one country but all countries in the world. The number of deaths caused by Covid-19 is very large and the rate of spread of this disease is very high and fast. In this paper, we perform an analysis of a covid-19 epidemic model. This model is a development of the SEIR model in general which is equipped with a Quarantine (Q), Fatality (F) compartment, and there is a separation between detected and undetected infected people (I). Our analysis shows that there are two equilibria, namely, disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. by using, Lyapunov function, we demonstrated that disease free is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, and disease-free becomes unstable if R0 > 1. This result reveal that the intervention of infection rate and quarantine process are important to control and achieve global stability of disease-free equilibrium

scholarly journals THE OUTBREAK’S MODELING OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) USING THE MODIFIED SEIR MODEL IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68
Author(s):  
Rustan Rustan ◽  
Linda Handayani
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Homogeneous Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
New Type

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new type of virus called SARS-CoV-2, and by the beginning of 2020 had spread throughout the world, including Indonesia. A high rate of spread of COVID-19 causes the number of patients that infected increase significantly. In this study, mathematical modeling was carried out to predict the number of COVID-19 patients and the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The model used is a modified SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) with several assumptions such as a constant and homogeneous population, patients who have recovered can not be infected, and the spread only occurs from human to human. In addition,  it is assumed that there are individuals who carry out quarantine and isolation. Modeling is done using the help of MATLAB R2015a. The modeling results show that the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia will occur in the middle of May 2020, and the number of infected patients will be about 15000 people. This amount can be reduced if the quarantine and self-isolation process is carried out optimally.

COVID 19: REALS AND CHALLENGES AGAINST DOCTORS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-87
Author(s):  
Zen Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
World Health ◽  
Unknown Etiology ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Traditional Markets ◽  
Pneumonia Case ◽  
The World ◽  
New Type ◽  
Health Organization

Corona Virus Disease (Covid-19) is a contagious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which was discovered in December 2019 in China. This disease can cause clinical manifestations in the airway, lung and systemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) representative of China reported a pneumonia case with unknown etiology in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China on December 31, 2019. The cause was identified as a new type of coronavirus on January 7, 2020 with an estimated source of the virus from traditional markets (seafood market). ) Wuhan city

Myths about COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 907-912
Author(s):  
Deepika Masurkar ◽  
Priyanka Jaiswal
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Indian Society ◽  
Common People ◽  
The World ◽  
New Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
Personal Level ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
The Common ◽  
Health Organization

Recently at the end of 2019, a new disease was found in Wuhan, China. This disease was diagnosed to be caused by a new type of coronavirus and affected almost the whole world. Chinese researchers named this novel virus as 2019-nCov or Wuhan-coronavirus. However, to avoid misunderstanding the World Health Organization noises it as COVID-19 virus when interacting with the media COVID-19 is new globally as well as in India. This has disturbed peoples mind. There are various rumours about the coronavirus in Indian society which causes panic in peoples mind. It is the need of society to know myths and facts about coronavirus to reduce the panic and take the proper precautionary actions for our safety against the coronavirus. Thus this article aims to bust myths and present the facts to the common people. We need to verify myths spreading through social media and keep our self-ready with facts so that we can protect our self in a better way. People must prevent COVID 19 at a personal level. Appropriate action in individual communities and countries can benefit the entire world.

Performance of 4G-LTE Communication and Navigation System in Blended Wing-Body UAS

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 9538-9542
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Communication ◽  
Line Of Sight ◽  
Multiple Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
New Type ◽  
Blended Wing Body ◽  
4G Lte ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
Technology Demonstrator

In vision of searching for the right Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) for a specific mission, there are multiple factors to be considered by the operator such as mission, endurance, type of payload and range of the telemetry and control. This research is focusing on extending control range of the UAS by using 4G-LTE network to enable beyond-line-of-sight flying for the commercial UAS. Major UAS such Global Hawk, Predator MQ-1 are able to fly thousands of kilometers by the use of satellite communication. However, the satellite communication annual license subscription can be very expensive. With this situation in mind, a new type of flight controller with 4G-LTE communication has been developed and tested. Throughout the research, blended-wing-body (BWB) Baseline B2S is used as the platform for technology demonstrator. Result from this analysis has proven that the proposed system is capable to control a UAS from as far as United Kingdom, with a latency less than 881 ms in average. The new added capability can potentially give the commercial UAS community a new horizon to be able to control their UAS from anywhere around the world with the availability of 4G-LTE connection

Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

BACKGROUND The Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection. OBJECTIVE Our findings confirm that the BCG vaccination might protect against COVID-19 virus infection. METHODS Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries’ mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates. RESULTS Among those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively. CONCLUSIONS That data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131268

scholarly journals Uncovering two phases of early intercontinental COVID-19 transmission dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Yang ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Shengjie Lai ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Weijia Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Genetic Sequencing ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Two Phases

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an ongoing global crisis, but how the virus spread across the world remains poorly understood. This is of vital importance for informing current and future pandemic response strategies. Methods We performed two independent analyses, travel network-based epidemiological modelling and Bayesian phylogeographic inference, to investigate the intercontinental spread of COVID-19. Results Both approaches revealed two distinct phases of COVID-19 spread by the end of March 2020. In the first phase, COVID-19 largely circulated in China during mid-to-late January 2020 and was interrupted by containment measures in China. In the second and predominant phase extending from late February to mid-March, unrestricted movements between countries outside of China facilitated intercontinental spread, with Europe as a major source. Phylogenetic analyses also revealed that the dominant strains circulating in the USA were introduced from Europe. However, stringent restrictions on international travel across the world since late March have substantially reduced intercontinental transmission. Conclusions Our analyses highlight that heterogeneities in international travel have shaped the spatiotemporal characteristics of the pandemic. Unrestricted travel caused a large number of COVID-19 exportations from Europe to other continents between late February and mid-March, which facilitated the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted restrictions on international travel from countries with widespread community transmission, together with improved capacity in testing, genetic sequencing and contact tracing, can inform timely strategies for mitigating and containing ongoing and future waves of COVID-19 pandemic.

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