scholarly journals Use of a mathematical model to estimate the impact of shrimp pen culture at Patos Lagoon estuary, Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 1063-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUÍS H. POERSCH ◽  
ÂNGELA M. MILACH ◽  
RONALDO O. CAVALLI ◽  
WILSON JR. WASIELESKY ◽  
OSMAR MÖLLER ◽  
...  

Ecological modeling has been used as a tool to estimate potential impacts caused by aquaculture to the surrounding environment. In this work, a mathematical model was applied to estimate the maximum amount of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) culture units (3,100m2 pen enclosures) that could be installed at two shallow estuarine bays of Patos Lagoon (known as Coreia and Porto do Rei) with no significant effects on either water quality or viability of the culture system. To calibrate the model, information about the culture of Litopenaeus vannamei and F. paulensis as well as field data (influence of netting material, water current speed and nitrogen concentrations) were used. Under a bad scenario (water current velocity of 0.01m s–1 and a mesh clogging effect of 40%), it would be possible to install up to 29 pens at the Coreia bay, and 39 pens at the Porto do Rei bay. Results indicate that the model was useful in determining the maximum number of culture units that could be installed at these bays, and thus have the potential to become an important tool in the definition of environmental management strategies in relation to aquaculture development.

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (Supplement_K) ◽  
pp. K4-K8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gérald Simonneau ◽  
Marius M Hoeper

Abstract At the 6th World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension (PH), it was proposed that the mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) threshold used to define PH should be lowered from ≥25 mmHg to >20 mmHg. The rationale for this change is that the ≥25 mmHg threshold is arbitrary, whereas the revised threshold is based on scientific evidence. For the definition of all forms of pre-capillary PH, the inclusion of a pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) ≥3 Wood Units was also proposed, placing greater emphasis on an elevated PVR to identify pulmonary vascular disease. Here, we discuss the possible impact of the revised definition of PH on future clinical management. This change may facilitate earlier PH detection, particularly in at-risk patient groups that are already undergoing screening programmes, e.g. those with systemic sclerosis or mutations associated with PH. As an mPAP above the upper limit of normal (>20 mmHg) but <25 mmHg is associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality compared with a normal mPAP, early identification of patients in this group is important to enable close monitoring and timely treatment initiation once clinically indicated. Treatments currently approved for PH are not necessarily suitable for patients with an mPAP 21–24 mmHg, as the management of this group has not been widely examined. The revised definition may facilitate inclusion of these patients in prospective trials, allowing the evaluation of appropriate management strategies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (166) ◽  
pp. 175-183
Author(s):  
I. Soloviev

It is shown that the problem of improving the effectiveness of prevention of emergencies related to the underwater location of explosive objects is relevant. An important and unresolved part of the problem is the lack of a mathematical model of the emergency response process associated with the underwater location of an explosive device in general. Based on this, the object of the study was the elimination of an emergency situation related to the underwater location of explosive objects, and the subject of the study – the process of operational activities of personnel of the underwater demining department of a group of special diving rescue team. The aim of the work is to develop a mathematical model of the emergency response process related to the underwater location of an explosive object as a process of functioning of the system "emergency – special means of underwater demining – diver-sapper", which should be the basis for substantiation of operational and technical recommendations. increasing the efficiency of underwater demining by diver sappers without reducing their level of safety. It is shown that the mathematical model of underwater demining by a diver-sapper is a system of three analytical dependences. The first is a functional that describes the process of underwater demining in the form of a three-factor polynomial model. The second allows us to present this functionality as a set of one-factor models. The third provides the definition of weights in solving a multifactor problem. It is noted that such a model allows to proceed to the substantiation of operational and technical recommendations to the management of the group of special diving works. The advantage of the new scientific result is the ability to obtain both quantitative estimates of the impact of the direct components of the system "diver-sapper – special means of underwater demining – underwater location of an explosive object" and their relationship. The disadvantage is the large number of experimental results that must be obtained to implement the selected plan.


2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mika Rahikainen ◽  
Robert L. Stephenson

Abstract Growth rates of herring in the northern Baltic Sea differ among areas, and have changed substantially over time in some areas in response to environmental change. Weight-at-age of adult herring in some areas of the Finnish herring fishery fluctuated by as much as 60% over the past three decades. Elsewhere, there have been similar but more subtle changes. Growth variation has implications for stock assessment and management: differences suggest a need for considering a smaller spatial structure, at least at the scale of the ICES subdivision, in the case of northern Baltic herring. Changes in growth have an impact on the calculation and use of common biological reference points, and erode the capability of yield projections beyond the short term. Investigation of the impact of growth variation on common reference points of northern Baltic herring revealed that F0.1 was a robust reference despite the marked variability in growth, whereas Fx%SPR (e.g. F35%SPR) was less robust, depending on the definition of maximum spawning-per-recruit. Herring in different areas of the northern Baltic Sea probably require different reference points and possibly different management strategies, as a consequence of differences and variability in growth characteristics.


Author(s):  
Emily P Zeitler ◽  
Ashleigh C King ◽  
Lauren Gilstrap ◽  
Andrea Austin

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) accounts for substantial resource utilization that is expected to increase as the US population ages. Management strategies for AF vary widely based on patient preference, physician specialty training, available resources, and other factors, but the impact that geography has on treatment variations for AF is unknown. Objective: We seek to evaluate differences in AF patient characteristics and management between urban and non-urban Medicare beneficiaries. Methods: Our cohort included all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries meeting the CMS chronic conditions warehouse definition of AF from 2013-2017. Beneficiaries were designated as urban and non-urban by rural-urban commuting area codes. AF procedures were tabulated based on CPT codes. The use of AF related medications was tabulated based on prescriptions for drugs of interest in Medicare Part D. Results: During our period of interest, Medicare AF patients were average age 79 yrs, and 52% were female. Urban patients were more likely to be black and have chronic kidney disease, diabetes, and ischemic heart disease. The average CHADS2VA2SC score was high (4.90 SD 1.71) and not meaningfully different between urban and non-urban groups. Most advanced interventions for AF increased over time driven mostly by increases in AF ablation (Figure). However, compared with non-urban patients, urban patients were more likely to undergo AF ablation (1.81 vs 1.42%, p<0.001), Watchman implantation (0.15 vs 0.11%, p<0.001), and cardioversion (0.06 vs 0.05%, p=0.015). Non-urban patients were more likely to be prescribed amiodarone (7.08 vs 6.09%, p=0.002) and warfarin (8.84 vs 7.40%, p<0.001) compared with urban patients and were less likely to be prescribed a direct oral anticoagulant. Conclusions: Despite urban and non-urban Medicare patients with AF being similar with regard to demographic and clinical characteristics, treatment of AF varied in important ways between these groups. In general, urban patients were more likely to receive interventional care for AF which, in some cases, has known associated benefits with regard to quality of life, morbidity, and mortality. Further work is needed to understand differences in outcomes between these two groups and to develop policy solutions to reduce treatment disparities.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Débora Toledo Ramos ◽  
Henry Xavier Corseuil ◽  
Timothy M. Vogel

ABSTRACTWorldwide efforts to depollute environments altered by human industrial activity have begun to produce an ever-increasing number of “clean” sites. “Clean” is defined by local regulatory processes and often responds to low compound concentrations or risk evaluations. Yet, these sites have been critically derailed from their historical biological activity by both the pollution event and the clean-up technology. This work explored the impact of contaminated (and remediated) sites on local microbial ecosystems. Different parcels of the same field site with the same relatively uniform microbial ecology were polluted and cleaned-up over the last 15 years. The statistical evaluation of the perturbation described changes to the local ecosystem that went back to the original baseline microbial composition although the pollution sources and the clean-up technologies affected the rate of return to the pre-disturbed condition. This rate reflected the intensity of the clean-up treatments. The role played by microbial communities on ecosystem maintenance and mitigation of pollution events lays the groundwork for predicting the microbial community responses to perturbations and the ability to reassert themselves. Predictions of ecosystem response to anthropogenic impacts could support decision-making on environmental management strategies for contaminated sites clean-up, depending on the ecosystem services desired to maintain or the risk posed to sensitive receptors.


On the basis of theoretical and practical studies of the electromechanical system, the scientific and technical problem of improving the control system of the electromechanical system during the impact on it of multi-vector perturbations is solved. The result of the study is the integration of differential equations with coefficients dependent on the oscillations of the control object. In the theoretical part, the mathematical model of the electromechanical system was synthesized, which made it possible to investigate ways of minimizing the deviation angles and time intervals required to stabilize the motion of the electromechanical system, which allowed indirectly to realize the associated signal with the stochastic nature of the moment of oscillation of the control object on the coordinate plane. The method of parametric optimization of the mathematical model of the electromechanical system in the function of the angle of inclination is also improved and investigated. Based on the definition of the structure and algorithms of work, the efficiency of the control system of the electromechanical system increases in terms of reducing the stabilization time of the control object.


NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 61-83
Author(s):  
Ashley N. Schulz ◽  
Angela M. Mech ◽  
Craig R. Allen ◽  
Matthew P. Ayres ◽  
Kamal J. K. Gandhi ◽  
...  

Assessing the ecological and economic impacts of non-native species is crucial to providing managers and policymakers with the information necessary to respond effectively. Most non-native species have minimal impacts on the environment in which they are introduced, but a small fraction are highly deleterious. The definition of ‘damaging’ or ‘high-impact’ varies based on the factors determined to be valuable by an individual or group, but interpretations of whether non-native species meet particular definitions can be influenced by the interpreter’s bias or level of expertise, or lack of group consensus. Uncertainty or disagreement about an impact classification may delay or otherwise adversely affect policymaking on management strategies. One way to prevent these issues would be to have a detailed, nine-point impact scale that would leave little room for interpretation and then divide the scale into agreed upon categories, such as low, medium, and high impact. Following a previously conducted, exhaustive search regarding non-native, conifer-specialist insects, the authors independently read the same sources and scored the impact of 41 conifer-specialist insects to determine if any variation among assessors existed when using a detailed impact scale. Each of the authors, who were selected to participate in the working group associated with this study because of their diverse backgrounds, also provided their level of expertise and uncertainty for each insect evaluated. We observed 85% congruence in impact rating among assessors, with 27% of the insects having perfect inter-rater agreement. Variance in assessment peaked in insects with a moderate impact level, perhaps due to ambiguous information or prior assessor perceptions of these specific insect species. The authors also participated in a joint fact-finding discussion of two insects with the most divergent impact scores to isolate potential sources of variation in assessor impact scores. We identified four themes that could be experienced by impact assessors: ambiguous information, discounted details, observed versus potential impact, and prior knowledge. To improve consistency in impact decision-making, we encourage groups to establish a detailed scale that would allow all observed and published impacts to fall under a particular score, provide clear, reproducible guidelines and training, and use consensus-building techniques when necessary.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Mineo ◽  
Giovanna Pappalardo ◽  
Michele Mangiameli ◽  
Santo Campolo ◽  
Giuseppe Mussumeci

A rockfall analysis at one of the most relevant cultural heritage sites of northeastern Sicily (Italy) is presented herein with the aim of assessing the hazard arising from the unstable conditions of the rock cliff of Taormina city, upon which the Saracen Castle is perched on its top. Several rockfalls affected this area in the latest years, representing a serious threat for the safety of inhabitants and tourists. Therefore, the qualitative Evolving Rockfall Hazard Assessment (ERHA) was applied for the hazard zonation, supported by rock mass surveys and Terrestrial Laser Scanner prospecting. Kinematic analysis revealed that the unstable rock failure patterns are represented by planar/wedge sliding and toppling, while simulation of potential rockfalls allowed studying the impact of future events in terms of trajectory and energy. This is higher at the foot of scarps and in steeper sectors, where the application of ERHA identified a critical zone close to the inhabited center, which is one of the main elements at risk, along with a pedestrian tourist path. Achieved results represent a starting point for the definition of risk management strategies and provide a scientific contribution to the study of hazard and risk arising from rockfall occurrence.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2110
Author(s):  
Antoine Abu-Musa ◽  
Thor Haahr ◽  
Peter Humaidan

Poor ovarian response (POR) to controlled ovarian stimulation (OS) presents a major challenge in assisted reproduction. The Bologna criteria represented the first serious attempt to set clear criteria for the definition of POR. However, the Bologna criteria were questioned because of the persistent heterogeneity among POR patients and the inability to provide management strategies. Based on these facts, a more recent classification, the POSEIDON (Patient-Oriented Strategies Encompassing IndividualizeD Oocyte Number) classification, was developed to provide a homogeneous and refined definition of POR that significantly reduces the heterogeneity of the Bologna criteria definition of POR and helps in the clinical handling and counseling of patients. In this review, we discuss the impact of the POSEIDON classification on the clinical management of patients with POR.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document