scholarly journals Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 274-279
Author(s):  
Rosemeire de Olanda Ferraz ◽  
Jane Kelly Oliveira-Friestino ◽  
Priscila Maria Stolses Bergamo Francisco
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The One ◽  
Increasing Trends

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard) in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. Methods: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. Results: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. Conclusions: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.

scholarly journals Spatial clusters and temporal trends of malignant melanoma mortality in Ecuador

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 205031212091828
Author(s):  
Solange Núñez-González ◽  
Estefania Bedoya ◽  
Daniel Simancas-Racines ◽  
Christopher Gault
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Malignant Melanoma ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Crude Mortality ◽  
Melanoma Mortality

Objective: The aim of this study is two fold. First, it describes the temporal trends of malignant melanoma mortality from 2000 to 2016 in Ecuador. Second, it analyzes the spatial clusters of high mortality rates due to malignant melanoma in the country, from 2011 to 2016. Methods: This is an ecological study; we included all death certificates of malignant melanoma from the National Institute of Statistics and Census database in Ecuador from 2000 to 2016. We calculated crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates, all rates are expressed as deaths per 100,000 population. In order to assess the trend of malignant melanoma rates, we obtained average annual percent changes through Joinpoint regression analysis. Spatial scan statistics were used to identify high-risk clusters and the spatial autocorrelation was evaluated through a global Moran index. Results: In Ecuador, between 2000 and 2016, malignant melanoma caused a total of 958 deaths. Crude mortality rates increased significantly (annual percent change = 4.8%; 95% confidence interval: 2.6–7.0), the age-standardized mortality rate also increased (annual percent change: 2.9%; 95% confidence interval: 0.5–5.4). The most likely cluster included 19 cantons and the second most likely cluster included 10 cantons, located in the Highlands region. The Global Moran I index for the study period shows a positive spatial autocorrelation (0.32; p = 0.001). Conclusion: Mortality due to malignant melanoma in Ecuador significantly increased over the 17-year study period; the spatial analysis and spatial autocorrelation indicates the presence of high-risk occurrence clusters in the Highlands region of the country.

scholarly journals Time Trends in Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Rates in the United States, 1999 to 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlyn A. Martin ◽  
Rebecca Molsberry ◽  
Michael J. Cuttica ◽  
Kush R. Desai ◽  
Daniel R. Schimmel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Younger Adults ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Percent Change

Background Although historical trends before 1998 demonstrated improvements in mortality caused by pulmonary embolism (PE), contemporary estimates of mortality trends are unknown. Therefore, our objective is to describe trends in death rates caused by PE in the United States, overall and by sex‐race, regional, and age subgroups. Methods and Results We used nationwide death certificate data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide‐Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research to calculate age‐adjusted mortality rates for PE as underlying cause of death from 1999 to 2018. We used the Joinpoint regression program to examine statistical trends and average annual percent change. Trends in PE mortality rates reversed after an inflection point in 2008, with an average annual percent change before 2008 of −4.4% (−5.7, −3.0, P <0.001), indicating reduction in age‐adjusted mortality rates of 4.4% per year between 1999 and 2008, versus average annual percent change after 2008 of +0.6% (0.2, 0.9, P <0.001). Black men and women had approximately 2‐fold higher age‐adjusted mortality rates compared with White men and women, respectively, before and after the inflection point. Similar trends were seen in geographical regions. Age‐adjusted mortality rates for younger adults (25–64 years) increased during the study period (average annual percent change 2.1% [1.6, 2.6]) and remained stable for older adults (>65 years). Conclusions Our study findings demonstrate that PE mortality has increased over the past decade and racial and geographic disparities persist. Identifying the underlying drivers of these changing mortality trends and persistently observed disparities is necessary to mitigate the burden of PE‐related mortality, particularly premature preventable PE deaths among younger adults (<65 years).

scholarly journals Cancer mortality trends in Brazilian adults aged 80 and over from 2000 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 274-281
Author(s):  
João Pedro Rufino ◽  
Ana Laura Maciel Monteiro ◽  
Julia Português Almeida ◽  
Karolina Moreira dos Santos ◽  
Mariana da Cruz Andrade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Oldest Old ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Cancer Site ◽  
80 And Over ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Aged 80 And Over ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Over Time

INTRODUCTION: Adults aged 80 and over represent the fastest growing segment of the population in emerging countries. Studies of cancer mortality trends in the oldest old population are scarce in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in cancer mortality in the Brazilian oldest old, by gender and cancer type, from 2000 to 2017. METHODS: This was a descriptive study with a time trend design, based on data from the Mortality Information System (of the Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). The variables analyzed were year of death, sex and cancer site. The five most common types of cancer were identified, and mortality rates and trends were calculated for each one. Trends were determined using joinpoint regression. In all cases where one or more joinpoints were statistically significant, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated based on the arithmetic mean of the annual percent change (APC), weighted by the length of each segment. The statistical significance of the APC and AAPC was estimated by calculating 95% confidence intervals (CI) with an alpha level of 0.05. RESULTS: Mortality rates increased over time (AAPC = 1.50; 95%CI, 1.20 – 1.70) in both males (AAPC = 1.90; 95%CI, 1.70 – 2.10) and females (AAPC = 1.30; 95%CI, 1.00 – 1.50). Men had higher mortality rates than women. The most common causes of cancer-related death were prostate cancer (AAPC = 1.70; 95%CI, 1.10 – 2.30) in men, and breast cancer (AAPC = 1.90; 95%CI, 1.50 – 2.20) in women, followed by cancers of the lung and bronchus, stomach and colon. All rates increased over time, except in the case of stomach cancer. CONCLUSION: The study revealed increasing mortality rates for screenable and/or preventable cancers, alerting to the need for preventive measures.

scholarly journals Pneumonia after Major Cancer Surgery: Temporal Trends and Patterns of Care

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Q. Trinh ◽  
Praful Ravi ◽  
Abd-El-Rahman M. Abd-El-Barr ◽  
Jay K. Jhaveri ◽  
Mai-Kim Gervais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Estimating Equations ◽  
Hospital Volume ◽  
Nationwide Inpatient Sample ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Risk Patients

Rationale.Pneumonia is a leading cause of postoperative complication.Objective.To examine trends, factors, and mortality of postoperative pneumonia following major cancer surgery (MCS).Methods.From 1999 to 2009, patients undergoing major forms of MCS were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), a Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) subset, resulting in weighted 2,508,916 patients.Measurements.Determinants were examined using logistic regression analysis adjusted for clustering using generalized estimating equations.Results.From 1999 to 2009, 87,867 patients experienced pneumonia following MCS and prevalence increased by 29.7%. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of mortality after MCS was −2.4% (95% CI: −2.9 to −2.0,P<0.001); the EAPC of mortality associated with pneumonia after MCS was −2.2% (95% CI: −3.6 to 0.9,P=0.01). Characteristics associated with higher odds of pneumonia included older age, male, comorbidities, nonprivate insurance, lower income, hospital volume, urban, Northeast region, and nonteaching status. Pneumonia conferred a 6.3-fold higher odd of mortality.Conclusions.Increasing prevalence of pneumonia after MCS, associated with stable mortality rates, may result from either increased diagnosis or more stringent coding. We identified characteristics associated with pneumonia after MCS which could help identify at-risk patients in order to reduce pneumonia after MCS, as it greatly increases the odds of mortality.

scholarly journals Impact of immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy among men who have sex with men infected with HIV in Chengdu, southwest China: trends analysis, 2008–2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenyao Wu ◽  
Baiyang Zhang ◽  
Zhen Dai ◽  
Qianwen Zheng ◽  
Zhenhua Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southwest China ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Health Information Systems ◽  
Hiv Diagnosis ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Hiv Epidemic ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Treat All

Abstract Background Given the rampant HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chengdu, southwest China, Treat All policy, defined as immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation after HIV diagnosis, was implemented since 2014. Real-world research evaluating impacts of immediate ART on HIV epidemics is needed to optimize policy-making as national and international guidelines have been lowering ART eligibility threshold. The purpose of this study is to: assess temporal trends of the HIV epidemic and impacts of Treat All policy among MSM; and lay foundation for HIV-related policy evaluation using longitudinal routine data from health information systems. Methods Data used in this study were HIV sentinel seroprevalence, annual reported HIV cases and ART coverage rate among MSM in Chengdu from 2008 to 2018, derived from national HIV/AIDS information system. Temporal trends of the HIV epidemic were described using Joinpoint Regression Program. Interrupted time-series method was deployed to evaluate Treat All policy. Results HIV sentinel seroprevalence rose from 11.20% in 2008 to 17.67% in 2013 and Annual Percent Change (APC) was 8.25% (95% CI − 2.40%, 20.07%), then decreased to 5.17% in 2018 (APC = − 19.63%, 95% CI − 27.54%, − 10.86%). Newly reported HIV cases increased from 168 cases in 2008 to 1232 cases in 2015 (APC = 26.99%, 95% CI 21.32%, 32.93%), and reduced to 1014 cases in 2018 (APC = − 8.80%, 95% CI − 18.45%, 2.01%). ART coverage rate has been climbing from 11.11% in 2008 to 92.29% in 2018 and Average Annual Percent Change was 16.09% (95% CI 11.76%, 20.59%). Results of interrupted time-series models showed that compared to an annual increase of 0.87% during pre-policy period, there was a decline of 3.08% (95% CI − 0.0366%, − 0.0250%) per year of HIV sentinel seroprevalence since 2014; and compared to an annual increase of 116 cases before 2014, there was an annual drop of 158 newly reported HIV cases (95% CI − 194.87%, − 121.69%) during the post-policy period. Conclusions Immediate ART after HIV diagnosis could potentially curb HIV transmission at population level among MSM, along with other strategies. Future assessment of HIV prevention and control policy can be carried out using routinely collected longitudinal data from health information systems.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Healthcare ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 283
Author(s):  
Irena Ilic ◽  
Sandra Sipetic Grujicic ◽  
Jovan Grujicic ◽  
Djordje Radovanovic ◽  
Ivana Zivanovic Macuzic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
The World

Background and Objectives: Trends of liver cancer mortality vary widely around the world. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of liver cancer mortality in Serbia. Material and Methods: Descriptive epidemiological study design was used in this research. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the World standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), according to joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to evaluate the underlying factors for liver cancer mortality trends. Results: In Serbia from 1991 to 2015, over 11,000 men and nearly 8000 women died from liver cancer. The trend in liver cancer mortality significantly decreased both in men (AAPC = −1.3%; 95% CI = −1.7 to −0.9) and women (AAPC = −1.5%; 95% CI = −1.9 to −1.1). For liver cancer mortality, statistically significant cohort and period effects were observed in both genders. Conclusions: The downward trends in liver cancer mortality in Serbia are recorded during the past decades.

scholarly journals Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates Among New York City Adults Ages 20–54 years during 1976–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kellie C Van Beck ◽  
John Jasek ◽  
Kristi Roods ◽  
Jennifer J Brown ◽  
Shannon M Farley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
New York State ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Registry Data ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates are rising in younger Americans and mortality rates are increasing among younger white Americans. We used New York State Cancer Registry data to examine New York City CRC incidence and mortality trends among adults ages 20–54 years by race from 1976 to 2015. Annual percent change (APC) was considered statistically significant at P less than .05 using a two-sided test. CRC incidence increased among those ages 20–49 years, yet blacks had the largest APC of 2.2% (1993–2015; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4% to 3.1%) compared with 0.5% in whites (1976–2015; 95% CI = 0.2% to 0.7%). Among those aged 50–54 years, incidence increased among blacks by 0.8% annually (1976–2015; 95% CI = 0.4% to 1.1%), but not among whites. CRC mortality decreased among both age and race groups. These findings emphasize the value of local registry data to understand trends locally, the importance of timely screening, and the need for clinicians to consider CRC among all patients with compatible signs and symptoms.

scholarly journals Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America: Trends and predictions to 2030

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Smith Torres-Roman ◽  
Bryan Valcarcel ◽  
Pedro Guerra-Canchari ◽  
Camila Alves Dos Santos ◽  
Isabelle Ribeiro Barbosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Universal Healthcare ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Universal Healthcare Coverage

Abstract Background: Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced in leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000-2017 and predicted mortality to 2030.Methods: We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013-2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030.Results: Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by −9.7%), and girls (EAPC by −6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030.Conclusion: Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.

scholarly journals Underlying causes of death with changing mortality among adults in the United States, 2013-2017

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Hu ◽  
Yong Lin ◽  
Lanjing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nutritional Deficiencies ◽  
Accidental Poisoning ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Underlying Causes

AbstractOverall mortality among U.S. adults was stable in the past years, while racial disparity was found in 10 leading causes of death or age-specific mortality in U.S. Blacks or African Americans. However, the trends in sex- and race-adjusted age-standardized cause-specific mortality are poorly understood. This study was aimed at identifying the UCD with sex- and race-adjusted, age-standardized mortality that was changing in recent years. We extracted the data of underlying causes of death (UCD) from the Multiple Cause of Death database of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Multivariable log-linear regression models were used to estimate trends in sex- and race-adjusted, age-standardized mortality during 2013-2017. A total of 31,029,133 deaths were identified. Among the list of 113 UCD compiled by the CDC, there were 29 UCD with upward trend, 33 UCD with downward trend and 56 UCD with no significant trend. The 2 UCD with largest annual percent change were both nutrition related (annual percent change= 17.73, 95% CI [15.13-20.33] for malnutrition and annual percent change= 17.49, 95% CI [14.94-20.04] for Nutritional deficiencies), followed by Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances. This study thus reported the UCD with changing mortality in recent years, which was sex- and race-adjusted and age-standardized. More efforts and resources should be focused on understanding, prevention and control of the mortality linked to these UCD. Continuous monitoring of mortality trends is recommended.

scholarly journals Current and Future Burden of Prostate Cancer in Songkhla, Thailand: Analysis of Incidence and Mortality Trends From 1990 to 2030

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian S. Alvarez ◽  
Shama Virani ◽  
Rafael Meza ◽  
Laura S. Rozek ◽  
Hutcha Sriplung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Using Data

Purpose Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy among men worldwide, and it poses a significant public health burden that has traditionally been limited mostly to developed countries. However, the burden of the disease is expected to increase, affecting developing countries, including Thailand. We undertook an analysis to investigate current and future trends of prostate cancer in the province of Songkhla, Thailand, using data from the Songkhla Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2013. Methods Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine trends in age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer and provide estimated annual percent change (EAPC) with 95% CIs. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to assess the effect of age, calendar year, and birth cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Three different methods (Joinpoint, Nordpred, and APC) were used to project trends from 2013 to 2030. Results Eight hundred fifty-five cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed from 1990 to 2013 in Songkhla, Thailand. The incidence rates of prostate cancer significantly increased since 1990 at an EAPC of 4.8% (95% CI, 3.6% to 5.9%). Similarly, mortality rates increased at an EAPC of 5.3% (95% CI, 3.4% to 7.2%). The APC models suggest that birth cohort is the most important factor driving the increased incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Future incidence and mortality of prostate cancer are projected to continue to increase, doubling the rates observed in 2013 by 2030. Conclusion It is critical to allocate resources to provide care for the men who will be affected by this increase in prostate cancer incidence in Songkhla, Thailand, and to design context-appropriate interventions to prevent its increasing burden.

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