scholarly journals Mortality from undetermined causes of death in Russia and in selected countries

2015 ◽  
pp. 34-61
Author(s):  
Sergey Vasin
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
Undetermined Intent ◽  
Contextual Framework ◽  
Technical Indicator ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
External Causes

Deaths due to injuries and poisoning which experts cannot identify, such as homicide, suicide or accident, are registered in statistical databases as deaths due to an event of undetermined intent. The proportion of such deaths can indicate the quality of statistics on causes of death, above all of statistics on intentional self-harm and assaults. In Russia, the proportion of deaths due to events of undetermined intent among other external causes has been growing for almost four decades. Such a trend was observed in the past during periods of growing mortality from external causes. Yet the steady and long decline in mortality from external causes in Russia that began in 2003 has not stopped the trend. The displacement of other external causes continues, though mortality from events of undetermined intent has exceeded both suicide and homicide mortality, and its proportion has increased tenfold, reaching very high levels relative to those of other countries. In several studies done in Russia over the past decade, scholars have argued that such a high proportion essentially results from the manipulation of statistics on mortality from external causes, the so-called conversion of socially important causes of death to a latent form. The factors behind the persistent rise of the proportion of deaths due to events of undetermined intent (EUI) are analysed on the basis of a review of relevant research and long-term trends in mortality from external causes in Russia and selected developed countries. This makes it possible to expand the contextual framework of the discussion about the factors of the persistent growth of this “technical” indicator and about the hypothesis of the “natural” character of such dynamics.

scholarly journals Mortality from external causes in Russia over half a century

2015 ◽  
pp. 85-108
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Kvasha ◽  
Tatiana Kharkova ◽  
Valeriy Yumaguzin
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Large Contribution ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Undetermined Intent ◽  
External Causes Of Death ◽  
Excess Number ◽  
External Causes

The article discusses long-term mortality trends (since 1956) from external causes of death in Russia. Russia has long lagged behind developed countries in this domain. The level of mortality from external causes of death remains high and its structure is still archaic with large contribution of homicides, alcohol poisoning and injuries of undetermined intent. Excess number of deaths from life tables of Russia and Western European countries is compared. It is shown that in Russia the greatest excess losses are associated with mortality from poisonings among both sexes, suicide among men and homicide among women. Mortality from external causes, along with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, has had a significant impact on life expectancy. In general, over the period 1956-2012 the increase in mortality from external causes in the 15-64 age group reduced life expectancy by 2.6 years for males and 0.7 years for females. The decline, starting in 2003, of mortality from external causes of death has slightly reduced the gap between Russia and developed countries, bringing the current Russian level closer to those levels reached in Russia in the mid-1960s and 1980s. However, given the fluctuations of mortality from external causes, it is premature to say whether the current decline in mortality is robust.

scholarly journals The Mortality Due to External Causes in Ukraine: Lives That Could Be Saved

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 96-106
Author(s):  
N. О. Ryngach
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Accidental Poisoning ◽  
Undetermined Intent ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
External Causes ◽  
National Databases ◽  
Noxious Substances

The article’s objective is to assess the losses of human lives in Ukraine, resulting from the mortality due to external causes (by absolute number, rate and structure), reveal the patterns by gender and age, with distribution by main cause. A comparative analysis of the mortality due to external causes in Ukraine and other countries is made by data on the distribution of deaths by gender, age and cause of death, taken from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, international and national databases. It is shown that the major share of deaths were due to four main causes accounted for more than 68% of all the cases: intentional self-harm (suicides); harm of undetermined intent; accidental poisonings caused by noxious substances; and transport accidents. An essential gender disproportion due to external causes is revealed: the mortality rate of males is 4.7 times higher than females. In Ukraine males account for 80.2% of the total deaths due to external causes (against two thirds, or 64.2%, in EU). The excess of males is the most significant in the causes such as drowning, suicides and accidental poisonings (with more than eight times to six times excess of the respective figure over females). In view of this, the share of deaths due to external causes in the overall structure of mortality was higher for Ukrainian males (8.4%) than for females (2.0%). The rate of sudden mortality (in the age younger than 65) due to external causes of death in Ukraine is 2.5 time higher than in Sweden chosen as a reference country, and thrice higher than in EU until 2004. The majority of deaths due to external causes in Ukraine are concentrated in this age group: nearly 80% in 2019 (against 49% in EU countries). A pressing social problem for modern Ukraine is the excessive mortality due to accidental poisoning and alcohol effects: from the age of 30 years and on, such cases exceed the poisonings caused by noxious substances (the gap being 1.75 times for the total population and more than trice (3.25 times) for the middle age of 45–49 years. Special attention is given to the problem of the increasing rate of deaths classified as “harm with undetermined intent” (which rate in Ukraine is seven times higher than in EU). It raises the need for analysis of the veracity of determined causes of death and quality enhancement of the official statistics for this class of causes in Ukraine, to have better understanding of the real situation and tendencies of change in the epidemiological situation with respect to external causes of mortality.    

scholarly journals Trends and Developments in Bioinformatics in 2010: Prospects and Perspectives

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (01) ◽  
pp. 146-155
Author(s):  
A. V. Alekseyenko ◽  
Y. Aphinyanaphongs ◽  
S. Brown ◽  
D. Fenyo ◽  
L. Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Open Problems ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Methods Development ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
To Come ◽  
Generation Sequencing

SummaryTo survey major developments and trends in the field of Bioinformatics in 2010 and their relationships to those of previous years, with emphasis on long-term trends, on best practices, on quality of the science of informatics, and on quality of science as a function of informatics.A critical review of articles in the literature of Bioinformatics over the past year.Our main results suggest that Bioinformatics continues to be a major catalyst for progress in Biology and Translational Medicine, as a consequence of new assaying technologies, most predominantly Next Generation Sequencing, which are changing the landscape of modern biological and medical research. These assays critically depend on bioinformatics and have led to quick growth of corresponding informatics methods development. Clinical-grade molecular signatures are proliferating at a rapid rate. However, a highly publicized incident at a prominent university showed that deficiencies in informatics methods can lead to catastrophic consequences for important scientific projects. Developing evidence-driven protocols and best practices is greatly needed given how serious are the implications for the quality of translational and basic science.Several exciting new methods have appeared over the past 18 months, that open new roads for progress in bioinformatics methods and their impact in biomedicine. At the same time, the range of open problems of great significance is extensive, ensuring the vitality of the field for many years to come.

scholarly journals Mortality in Russia: the second epidemiological revolution that never was

2015 ◽  
pp. 4-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anatoly Vishnevsky
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Past Half Century ◽  
External Causes Of Death ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Age Of Death

The article looks at different approaches to the conceptualization of the modern stage of mortality reduction (the "new stages” of the epidemiological transition, "the second epidemiological revolution”, the “health transition”). During this stage, which has lasted for at least half a century, revolutionary changes have taken place in most developed countries. These changes manifest themselves in the drastic expansion of the degree of control over non-infectious causes of death—particularly over diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and other non-communicable diseases, as well as over external causes of death. As a consequence of these changes, there has been a rapid shift of deaths from the abovementioned causes to older ages, an increase in the mean age of death from these causes, and, ultimately, a significant rise in life expectancy. Russia, unfortunately, is watching this revolution from the outside, without taking any part in it. The age distribution of deaths from major classes of causes of death in Russia has not changed over the past half-century, life expectancy has stagnated, and Russia has increasingly lagged behind the majority of developed countries with respect to this indicator. Thus, the “second epidemiological revolution” has not yet to occur in Russia.

Long-term variations in the geomagnetic activity level Part II: Ascending phases of sunspot cycles

1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (10/11) ◽  
pp. 1065-1070 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mussino ◽  
O. Borello Filisetti ◽  
M. Storini ◽  
H. Nevanlinna
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Activity Level ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Long Term Variations

Abstract. Monthly averages of the Helsinki Ak-values have been reduced to the equivalent aa-indices to extend the aa-data set back to 1844. A periodicity of about five cycles was found for the correlation coefficient (r) between geomagnetic indices and sunspot numbers for the ascending phases of sunspot cycles 9 to 22, confirming previous findings based on a minor number of sunspot cycles. The result is useful to researchers in topics related to solar-terrestrial physics, particularly for the interpretation of long-term trends in geomagnetic activity during the past, and to forecast geomagnetic activity levels in the future.

scholarly journals Mortality in 787,666 school pupils with and without autism: A cohort study

Autism ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 136236132094403
Author(s):  
Gillian S Smith ◽  
Michael Fleming ◽  
Deborah Kinnear ◽  
Angela Henderson ◽  
Jill P Pell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Quality Care ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
The Past ◽  
Crude Mortality Rate ◽  
Crude Mortality ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
External Causes

Studies on children and adults combined suggest higher mortality rates for autistic than other people, but few report mortality rates for autistic children. In addition, past studies may not be representative of the current generation of children diagnosed with autism. We examined mortality in children using data from Scotland’s annual pupil census, linked to National Records of Scotland deaths register, between 2008 and 2015. In total, 9754 (1.2%) of 787,666 pupils had autism. They were more likely to live in neighbourhoods of greater deprivation and receive free school meals. Six autistic pupils died; crude mortality rate 15.8/100,000 person-years (95% CI = 7.1–35.1), compared with 458 other pupils; crude mortality rate 12.5/100,000 person-years (95% CI = 11.4–13.7). The indirectly standardised mortality ratio was 1.1 (95% CI = 0.5–2.5). In the autistic pupils, the most common causes of death were nervous system diseases, for example, epilepsy. Avoidable causes were common. In the comparison group, external causes and cancers were the most common causes of death. We cautiously conclude that mortality in the current generation of autistic children is no higher than for other children, perhaps due to recent widening of criteria for autism spectrum diagnosis, but some deaths could have been avoided by better care. Lay abstract There are few studies on the deaths of children and young people with autism; some studies on children and adults combined suggest that those with autism may have higher death rates than other people. More children are diagnosed with autism than in the past, suggesting that there are now more children with milder autism who have the diagnosis than in the past, so studies in the past might not apply to the current generation of children and young people diagnosed with autism. We examined the rates of death in children and young people in Scotland using recorded information in Scotland’s annual pupil census, linked to the National Records of Scotland deaths register, between 2008 and 2015. In total, 9754 (1.2%) out of 787,666 pupils had autism. Six pupils with autism died in the study period, compared with 458 other pupils. This was equivalent to 16 per 100,000 for pupils with autism and 13 per 100,000 pupils without autism; hence, the rate of death was very similar. In the pupils with autism, the most common causes of death were diseases of the nervous system, whereas they were from external causes in the comparison pupils. The autism group had some deaths due to epilepsy which might have been prevented by good quality care. We cautiously conclude that the death rate in the current generation of children and young adults with autism is no higher than for other children, but that even in this high-income country, some deaths could be prevented by high quality care.

Threats to the running water ecosystems of the world

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn Malmqvist ◽  
Simon Rundle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Running Waters ◽  
Running Water ◽  
Lotic Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Water Ecosystems

Running waters are perhaps the most impacted ecosystem on the planet as they have been the focus for human settlement and are heavily exploited for water supplies, irrigation, electricity generation, and waste disposal. Lotic systems also have an intimate contact with their catchments and so land-use alterations affect them directly. Here long-term trends in the factors that currently impact running waters are reviewed with the aim of predicting what the main threats to rivers will be in the year 2025. The main ultimate factors forcing change in running waters (ecosystem destruction, physical habitat and water chemistry alteration, and the direct addition or removal of species) stem from proximate influences from urbanization, industry, land-use change and water-course alterations. Any one river is likely to be subjected to several types of impact, and the management of impacts on lotic systems is complicated by numerous links between different forms of anthropogenic effect. Long-term trends for different impacts vary. Concentrations of chemical pollutants such as toxins and nutrients have increased in rivers in developed countries over the past century, with recent reductions for some pollutants (e.g. metals, organic toxicants, acidification), and continued increases in others (e.g. nutrients); there are no long-term chemical data for developing countries. Dam construction increased rapidly during the twentieth century, peaking in the 1970s, and the number of reservoirs has stabilized since this time, whereas the transfer of exotic species between lotic systems continues to increase. Hence, there have been some success stories in the attempts to reduce the impacts from anthropogenic impacts in developed nations. Improvements in the pH status of running waters should continue with lower sulphurous emissions, although emissions of nitrous oxides are set to continue under current legislation and will continue to contribute to acidification and nutrient loadings. Climate change also will impact running waters through alterations in hydrology and thermal regimes, although precise predictions are problematic; effects are likely to vary between regions and to operate alongside rather than override those from other impacts. Effects from climate change may be more extreme over longer time scales (>50 years). The overriding pressure on running water ecosystems up to 2025 will stem from the predicted increase in the human population, with concomitant increases in urban development, industry, agricultural activities and water abstraction, diversion and damming. Future degradation could be substantial and rapid (c. 10 years) and will be concentrated in those areas of the world where resources for conservation are most limited and knowledge of lotic ecosystems most incomplete; damage will centre on lowland rivers, which are also relatively poorly studied. Changes in management practices and public awareness do appear to be benefiting running water ecosystems in developed countries, and could underpin conservation strategies in developing countries if they were implemented in a relevant way.

Thorny way of strategic planning in modern Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-34
Author(s):  
MIKHAIL E. DMITRIEV ◽  
◽  
VALERY B. KRAPIL ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Planning System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current State ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
To Come ◽  
Further Development

The article considers strategic planning practices in Russia since the transition to market economy. The authors assess the outcomes of federal strategies and the possible causes of their incomplete implementation. The study reviews the development of legislation on strategic planning and the problems and contradictions associated with the implementation of the laws, including the subfederal level. The course of development of the project format of strategic documents (national projects, etc.) and the reasons that led to the strengthening of its role, despite the lack of legislative registration, are also presented. Based on the results of the review, a characteristic is given of the current state of the strategic planning system, which is assessed as unstable and transitional, and possible directions for its further development are noted. The interest in strategic planning over the past three decades has been generated by objective long-term challenges. They are largely due to the need to take into account long-term trends in demographic, technological, environmental, climatic, spatial, infrastructural, geopolitical and other areas where there are problems and tasks that can only be solved by coordinated planning of actions for many years to come.

Questions That Will Not Go Away: Some Remarks on Long-Term Trends in Architecture and their Impact on Architectural Education

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-19
Author(s):  
N. John Habraken
Keyword(s):  
Architectural Education ◽  
Philosophical Question ◽  
The Past ◽  
Self Image ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Way

I want to raise a more philosophical question. What fundamental images and ambitions have guided us in the past and may guide us in the future? I want to particularly call attention to the way we explain ourselves to ourselves and to those we work with. This question may not seem practical but, ultimately, our self-image determines the way we design: our buildings reflect how we see ourselves. To let you know right from the beginning what I am aiming at, my talk can be summarized as follows: we come from a tradition of monument builders, but today we are almost entirely immersed in design for everyday environments. Where we come from is very different from what we do now. The way we see ourselves is a product of the past and is becoming increasingly counter productive.

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