scholarly journals Multiplication of Negative Scenarios: the Approach Public Administrations Could Use at Drafting General Rules

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-164
Author(s):  
Mirko Pečarič

This paper addresses problems that emerge when draft laws are created without due regard for the calculus of probability. Although the latter should be sine qua non for future legislation, legislators usually do not use it despite the legislation’s pro future orientation. The paper, based on Hume’s old “is-ought” problem (the impossibility to move from descriptive statements to prescriptive ones) and with the awareness that probability will not be used soon, offers a solution for the future legislation in the multiplication of (negative) scenarios, applied to different life questions. Despite the more and more “popular use” of regulatory impact assessments, smart regulation, probability and risk, public administrations as the major drafters of general legal rules usually do not even use the (much simpler) negative approach to gain better insight into problems, although it is per se the natural way of our thinking. A new view on probability through signs that fit into (unwanted, but known in advance) scenarios can also provide new answers regarding causality. The latter is based on signs, which is what evidence per se really means.

Author(s):  
Zoran Vrucinic

The future of medicine belongs to immunology and alergology. I tried to not be too wide in description, but on the other hand to mention the most important concepts of alergology to make access to these diseases more understandable, logical and more useful for our patients, that without complex pathophysiology and mechanism of immune reaction,we gain some basic insight into immunological principles. The name allergy to medicine was introduced by Pirquet in 1906, and is of Greek origin (allos-other + ergon-act; different reaction), essentially representing the reaction of an organism to a substance that has already been in contact with it, and manifested as a specific response thatmanifests as either a heightened reaction, a hypersensitivity, or as a reduced reaction immunity. Synonyms for hypersensitivity are: altered reactivity, reaction, hypersensitivity. The word sensitization comes from the Latin (sensibilitas, atis, f.), which means sensibility,sensitivity, and has retained that meaning in medical vocabulary, while in immunology and allergology this term implies the creation of hypersensitivity to an antigen. Antigen comes from the Greek words, anti-anti + genos-genus, the opposite, anti-substance substance that causes the body to produce antibodies.


2020 ◽  
pp. bmjmilitary-2020-001455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Blair Thomas Herron ◽  
K M Heil ◽  
D Reid

In 2015, the UK government published the National Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) 2015, which laid out their vision for the future roles and structure of the UK Armed Forces. SDSR 2015 envisaged making broader use of the Armed Forces to support missions other than warfighting. One element of this would be to increase the scale and scope of defence engagement (DE) activities that the UK conducts overseas. DE activities traditionally involve the use of personnel and assets to help prevent conflict, build stability and gain influence with partner nations as part of a short-term training teams. This paper aimed to give an overview of the Specialist Infantry Group and its role in UK DE. It will explore the reasons why the SDSR 2015 recommended their formation as well as an insight into future tasks.


ABI-Technik ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 357-364
Author(s):  
Martin Lee ◽  
Christina Riesenweber

AbstractThe authors of this article have been managing a large change project at the university library of Freie Universität Berlin since January 2019. At the time of writing this in the summer of 2020, the project is about halfway completed. With this text, we would like to give some insight into our work and the challenges we faced, thereby starting conversations with similar undertakings in the future.


2020 ◽  
pp. 106907272098017
Author(s):  
Anna Praskova ◽  
Lena Johnston

Future orientation is crucial for young people to achieve career-developmental milestones, yet little research has examined the role of future orientation in attaining career outcomes in adult samples. Using the future orientation framework, we tested direct effects of future orientation on career agency (proactive career behaviors and work effort) and career success (perceived employability and career adaptability), indirect effects via career agency variables, and conditional effects of negative career feedback in the future orientation-career agency-career success relationships. We surveyed 285 adults ( M = 38.38 years) and conducted structural equation and moderated mediation analyses. Future orientation was associated positively with work effort, proactive career behaviors, career adaptability, and perceptions of employability. Work effort and proactive career behaviors mediated the future orientation-career success relationship. The mediation via career behaviors (but not work effort) was dependent on the level of received negative career feedback. The results have theoretical and practical implications.


foresight ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Baptiste Gossé ◽  
Dominique Plihon

Purpose – This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe. Design/methodology/approach – First the authors define the potential changes in financial markets and then the tools available for the regulator to tame them. Finally, they build five scenarios according to the main evolutions observed on the financial markets and on the tools used by the regulator to modify these trends. Findings – Among the five scenarios defined, two present highly unstable features since the regulator refuses to choose between financial opening and independently determining how to regulate finance in order to preserve financial stability. Three of them achieve financial stability. However, they are more or less efficient or feasible. In terms of market efficiency, the multi-polar scenario is the best and the fragmentation scenario is the worst, since gains of integration depend on the size of the new capital market. Regarding sovereignty of regulation, fragmentation is the best scenario and the multi-polar scenario is the worst, because it necessitates coordination at the global level which implies moving further away from respective national preferences. However, the more realistic option seems to be the regionalisation scenario: this level of coordination seems much more realistic than the global one; the market should be of sufficient size to enjoy substantial benefits of integration. Nevertheless, the “European government” might gradually increase the degree of financial integration outside Europe in line with the degree of cooperation with the rest of the world. Originality/value – Foresight studies on financial markets and regulation are quite rare. This may be explained by the difficulty to forecast what will be their evolution in the coming decades, not least because finance is fundamentally unstable. This paper provides a framework to consider what could be the best strategy of regulators in such an unstable environment.


Author(s):  
Tetiana Yurchyk ◽  
◽  
Tetiana Sukhomlin ◽  

The success of handprints examined by experts depends on many factors, the main of which is the receipt of dactyloscopic information by qualified detection, fixation and removal of handprints during the inspection of the scene. To do this, the future expert needs knowledge about the mechanism of papillary patterns, types of handprints, general rules for their detection, and so on. The fact is that the multicomponent nature of the fatty substance creates ample opportunities for the detection of handprints and provides many potential opportunities for chemical exposure. In addition, the substrate of the fatty substance has some physical properties that can be used in the process of visualization of traces.


2011 ◽  
Vol 141 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Hjorth

As one location boasting high broadband speeds, infrastructure, strong techno-nationalist policy and some of the early examples of so-called ‘digital natives’, South Korea has been seen as the model for the future of online culture. However, beyond these images of techno-fantasies is a technoculture that is marred by an increasing ambivalence towards online media. Specifically through user-created content (UCC), researchers can gain insight into some of the paradoxes emerging around online creativity, community and politics. Drawing on fieldwork conducted between 2009 and 2011, this article considers what UCC means in Korea and how this reflects the particularities of Korea's technoculture.


2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Grobler ◽  
Aden-Paul Flotman

Purpose: This is an era of unprecedented turbulence. The current coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) global pandemic testifies to this turmoil as, daily, the unknown dynamically unfolds. It is important during challenging times like these that leadership and organisational response enhance a shared positive vision for the future of humanity. This study aimed at determining the role played by servant leadership (SL) in promoting employee well-being, specifically, a positive future expectation in terms of hope and optimism (HO), as well as the impact that team-based learning (TBL) has on this relationship, and whether this is the same for both the private and public sectors.Design/methodology/approach: This study employed an empirical paradigm, using a cross-sectional design and quantitative analysis. The total sample consisted of 1560 participants, with 780 employed in the private and public sector, respectively.Findings/results: The results suggest that both SL and TBL have a significant impact on employees’ HO, with TBL being a mediating variable and with stronger relationships reported for the private sector. Technically, the TBL instrument employed was validated for South African use and the study included a statistical assessment of common method bias, which was found not to skew the results.Practical implications: This study provides further empirical evidence that SL is positively associated with HO. Secondly, the future-mindedness and future-orientation of HO could stimulate adaptive responses during this time of uncertainty and turmoil. Thus, HO, as potential resilience factors, could generate resilience by harnessing opportunities and setbacks both during the Covid-19 pandemic and in its aftermath.Originality/value: The practical value of this article is in the empirical evidence that both the leaders and the organisation have an impact on the employees’ wellness and positive work attitudes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Olyvia Sindiawaty ◽  
Mercy Marvel

Intelligence Policy has often been heard in the realm of law, especially with government agencies held in Indonesia. One of them is the immigration agency, which is under the auspices of the Ministry of Law and Human Rights. The implementation of the policy is still minimal, although in fact it is contained in article 1 of Law No. 6 of 2011 number 30, as well as article 74. There are still many that need to be addressed, both in the applicable legal rules and with implementation in the field. The fact that sometimes the Immigration Officer is sometimes mixed in its own definition of intelligence and oversight. Are they the same or different and how to distinguish the two. Recognizing the fact that immigration is increasingly compacted by traffic activities in and out of foreigners and citizens and their supervision, a qualified intelligence is needed in maintaining the upholding of the country's sovereignty. It is an obligation, especially for immigration to safeguard the country as stated in the immigration function, is part of the affairs of the state government in providing Immigration services, law enforcement, state security, and community welfare development facilitators. Therefore, immigration should take part in enforcing supervision and security of the state in the field of law. Immigration intelligence which is under the auspices of the Directorate of Intelligence and immigration enforcement should need to be developed more thoroughly as a whole. So, it is hoped that in the future the Indonesian state will have total sovereignty over the country and its own people.


Problemos ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Skirmantas Jankauskas

Straipsnyje mėginama rekonstruoti platoniškosios meilės sampratos fenomenologinį aspektą. Šios sampratos kontūrus Platonas nužymi dar „Puotoje“, tačiau daugiausia dėmesio jai skiria bene poetiškiausiame ir mįslingiausiame savo dialoge „Faidras“. Įvadinėje dalyje teigiama, kad graikiškasis filosofavimas klostosi natūraliai, t. y. tematizuoja filosofavimui rūpimus turinius, tik susiklostant filosofavimui palankioms aplinkybėms. Brandą pasiekusi filosofija jau mėgina perprasti save, taigi ir įsisąmoninti tas natūralias prielaidas. Platonas dar „Puotoje“ nustato, kad palankiausia filosofavimui natūrali žmogaus būsena yra meilė. „Puotoje“ jam pavyksta išryškinti vertybinį meilės profilį, o filosofavimas čia aprašomas kaip grožio vertybės užangažuotas „teisingasis kelias“, kreipiantis mąstymą grynojo teorinio žinojimo link. Pati meilė čia traktuojama dar gana neapibrėžtai, t. y. kaip „gimdymas grožyje“. Sutelkdamas dėmesį į žmogiškąjį santykį, „Faidre“ Platonas kaip tik imasi detalizuoti „gimdymo grožyje“ fenomenologiją. Platonas struktūruoja sielą, t. y. pavaizduoja ją kaip vadeliotojo važnyčiojamą sparnuotą dvikinkę. Grožio veikiama ši dvikinkė pasikelia į uždangės sritį, ir vadeliotojui palankiausiu atveju pavyksta išvysti „tiesos lygumą“. Metaforiškai aprašytos sielos dalys straipsnyje susiejamos su atitinkamomis kasdienio ir etinio mąstymo temomis bei teoriniu mąstymu apskritai, o sparnuotumas – su vertybiškumu. Sekant Platono aprašyta sielos dalių dinamika pavyksta parodyti, kaip veikiant grožiui teorinis mąstymas gali tematizuoti etiškumo temą ir veikiai pelnyti būties įžvalgą. Pagrindiniai žodžiai: meilė, šėlas, tiesa, būtis, grožis, gėris, natūralus filosofavimas, fenomenologijaPhaidros: Phenomenology of “Giving Forth upon the Beautiful”Skirmantas Jankauskas   SummaryThe author makes an attempt to reconstruct the phenomenological aspect of Plato’s concept of love. The contours of this concept are only outlined by Plato in his Symposium to be later developed in his probably the most poetic and enigmatic dialogue Phaedrus. A hypothesis is put forward here that love as ‘madness’ – as described in Phaedrus – could be treated as a further elaboration of the concept of ‘giving forth upon the beautiful’ as portrayed in Symposium. The article starts with a thesis that Greek philosophizing  proceeds in a natural way, i.e. it thematises the preferred contents only within favorable external circumstances. As philosophy reaches its maturity, it tries to learn itself, i.e. to realize these favorable natural circumstances. It is already in Symposium that Plato establishes that love is the most favorable condition for philosophizing. In this dialogue Plato manages to elucidate the axiological profile of love. Philosophizing is presented as the ‘right way’ to be engaged by the beautiful and to lead towards pure theoretical thinking. Love itself is treated in an inde terminate way as ‘giving forth upon the beautiful’. By putting the human relation in the focus of attention, Plato reveals in his Phaedrus the phenomenology of ‘giving forth upon the beautiful’. He describes the soul as ‘a team of winged steeds and their winged charioteer’. Affected by the beautiful, this ‘team’ climbs the boundaries of the heavens and the ‘charioteer’, in the utmost case, manages to contemplate the ‘plain of truth’. In the article, those metaphorically described parts of the soul are associated correspondingly with themes of everyday thinking and ethical thinking as well as theoretical thinking in general, while wingness is related to valuesness. Tracing the dynamics of the parts of the soul, as portrayed in Phaedrus, the author manages to describe the way in which theoretical thinking thematises the theme of ethical thinking and attains the insight into being under the impact of the beautiful. Keywords: love, madness, truth, being, the beautiful, the good, natural philosophising, phenomenology.p;


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