GDP growth has weakened in the post-crisis period (%) on account of weaker domestic demand, but external balances and internal balances have improved

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F14-F22

The pace of economic recovery in the US eased in the second quarter of 2010, with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth moderating from 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 0.4 per cent. The source of the slowdown stemmed from a negative contribution to growth from net trade, as import volumes rose by 7.5 per cent on the back of a sharp acceleration in domestic demand. This allowed the US current account balance to widen to 3.4 per cent of GDP. Our forecast sees the current account balance hovering between 2½–3½ per cent of GDP over the forecast horizon, well below the 6½ per cent of GDP deficits seen at the height of the housing market bubble in 2005–6. NIESR's index of global imbalances, illustrated in appendix chart B3, clearly shows that global current account imbalances have receded from the unsustainable levels reached in 2007.


2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (03) ◽  
pp. 417-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pornchai Chunhachinda ◽  
Li Li

This study measures and compares the profit and cost efficiencies of Thai commercial banks between 1990 and 2008 which has been subdivided into the pre-crisis, the financial crisis, and the post-crisis periods. The efficiency scores are measured using a combination of parametric and non-parametric frontier approach. Both average profit and cost efficiency levels of the post-crisis period are found to be significantly lower than those of the pre-crisis period. The evidence also indicates that the real GDP growth rate and some general and financial characteristics are correlated with the efficiency level of Thai commercial banks.


Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.


Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.


2011 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. F10-F17
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Aurélie Delannoy ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
...  

At the global level, GDP growth accelerated to 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2010 according to NIESR estimates — largely driven by a sharp rise in domestic demand in China, which more than offset a slowdown in world trade growth that originated in the US. The economic recovery in the advanced economies remains lacklustre. The sharp rise in the oil price in recent months has exacerbated the effects on output of the protracted downturn in global investment and a tighter fiscal policy stance, at least in Europe. High commodity prices will push inflation in the OECD close to 3 per cent both this year and next. At the global level we expect GDP growth to moderate from an estimated 5.2 per cent in 2010 to just below 4½ per cent per annum in 2011–12, with around half of this slowdown attributable to the effects of the increase in oil prices between October 2010 and April 2011. The key assumptions underlying this forecast are discussed in Appendix A, with our forecasts for key macro variables in 40 major economies detailed in Appendix B.


Significance Belgium’s competitiveness has been undermined by the indexation of wages to inflation and its GDP growth has trailed that of the euro-area since 2015. However, a tax and economic reform package implemented since 2016 has contributed to a pickup in growth in 2017-18. Impacts Business investment is expected to be the fastest-growing component of GDP growth. The National Bank of Belgium estimates that the tax reform will add 1.2% to GDP and allow the creation of more than 50,000 jobs in 2016-20. The reform package is mostly self-financed, so the general government deficit is expected to stay around 1.0-1.5% of GDP in 2018-19. The 2019 elections could derail the reform process if forming a coalition proves difficult or if parties' policy priorities diverge.


Subject Germany’s trade surplus. Significance Germany runs a large trade surplus with other euro-area countries and the rest of the world. Critics have argued that wages in Germany have not increased enough in recent years and that the country should boost domestic demand. However, trade and wage developments with other euro-area countries show that such criticism is largely misguided. Impacts Germany’s offshoring of production processes helps boost GDP growth in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Creating a more innovation-friendly environment and investing in R&D would lift the long-term growth potential of the euro-area. Completing the digital single market could contribute to more innovation across the EU.


Author(s):  
Lucia Granelli ◽  
Balázs Pálvölgyi ◽  
Johannes Ziemendorff

This chapter focuses on France and Germany, the two largest economies of the European Union, comparing recent economic and social developments. It finds that the two economies rely on different growth models, with important social implications. Germany’s postwar economic growth model was strongly based on exports and typically proved more volatile, while gross domestic product (GDP) growth in France was more focused on domestic demand and is usually more stable while on average generating a somewhat lower growth. The flexible German labour market allowed unemployment to decrease, albeit at the expense of higher income poverty and a larger low-wage sector. In France, instead, lower income poverty and a smaller low-wage sector were accompanied by a relatively higher unemployment rate. Recently, the gap between the two growth models and the resulting differences in social outcomes has appeared to be narrowing, reflecting the slowdown in the global cycle and more institutional focus in Germany on inclusiveness and in France on flexibility.


Author(s):  
M. Petrov ◽  
D. Plissetskii

An outstanding feature of the world economy development at the beginning of Millennium is an accelerated growth of countries with developing and transition economies. Expansion of domestic demand, abrupt export buildup facilitated a significant GDP increase in these states, which in its turn gave a strong impulse to domestic capital markets development. The global crisis became a serious test for most of developing and post-socialist countries, in which case the meaningful drop in outside financing was one of its most painful consequences. Nevertheless, the sequential strengthening of states with emerging markets will be one of the key tendencies in the world financial system restructuring during the post-crisis period.


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