scholarly journals Estimation of R0 for COVID-19 in India through different mathematical model and their comparison

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 660
Author(s):  
Nidhi Dwivedi ◽  
Sujata Gupta ◽  
Archana Dwivedi
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Central China ◽  
World Health ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Background: The cases of novel coronavirus (COVID- 2019)-infected pneumonia started since the 19th of December, 2019, in Wuhan (Central China). A large scale outbreak of the disease resulted in a pandemic. This outbreak of the COVID -19 disease has spread on a wide scale. World health organization (WHO) has identified the ongoing outbreak of corona virus disease (COVID 2019) as pandemic on 11 March 2020. Basic reproduction number (R0)- is one of the most important predictors of epidemic severity. It can help to understand the path of the epidemic and to assess the effectiveness of the various interventions to control the epidemic. The purpose of this study is to estimate R0 by using five methods based on the Indian COVID-19 dataset and compare them.  Methods: We obtained data on daily confirmed, recovered and deaths cases from official site of ministry of health and family welfare. We implemented 5 mathematical methods to calculate R0. We estimated the number of active cases till 14th of April. We also compare these methods to find out the best method to predict R0.Results: The estimated R0 for the AR, EG, ML, TD, and gamma-distributed methods were 1.0004, 2.102, 1.895, 1.872 and 1.46 respectively. The computed R0 in the TD method is closer to the actual R0 and have a good fit on data as confirmed with MSE criterion.Conclusions: Awareness of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 is useful for controlling the spread of disease and for planning. It is therefore necessary to know the best method that has better performance.

scholarly journals Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oyelola A. Adegboye ◽  
Adeshina I. Adekunle ◽  
Ezra Gayawan
Keyword(s):  
Doubling Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
World Health ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28–15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65–8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83–7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26–1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.

How do primary community hospitals make early diagnosis of COVID-19:the experience from Chengdu,China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Hospital ◽  
Municipal Government ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
Medical Unit ◽  
District Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

UNSTRUCTURED The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by World Health Organization since January 30, 2020 and the new coronavirus pneumonia was named Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) in February 11th. Novel coronavirus has been effectively controlled in China, but has spread worldwide and been epidemic in some countries. By March 30th, more than 600 thousand people were confirmed infected in areas other than China, and increased by more than 50 thousand people per day3. Our hospital is a district-level public hospital directly under the Jinniu District Government. Since February 5, our hospital has been listed by the Chengdu Municipal Government as the primary designated medical unit for treating new crown patients in Jinniu District.Recently, how to deal with COVID-19 more effectively and interrupt the transmission has become the concern of medical staff. Now we will share our experience on COVID-19 with you.

scholarly journals Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (36) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Nishiura ◽  
G Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
World Health ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Country Specific

The effective reproduction number, Rt, of Ebola virus disease was estimated using country-specific data reported from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to the World Health Organization from March to August, 2014. Rt for the three countries lies consistently above 1.0 since June 2014. Country-specific Rt for Liberia and Sierra Leone have lied between 1.0 and 2.0. Rt<2 indicate that control could be attained by preventing over half of the secondary transmissions per primary case.

scholarly journals Preparedness prevention of Covid-19 Muhammadiyah residents in Magelang, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 01
Author(s):  
Margono Margono ◽  
Robiul Fitri Masithoh ◽  
Priyo Priyo
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Transmission Method ◽  
Hand Sanitizer ◽  
The One ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Command Center

Corona Virus Disease (Covid-19) is a virus that is still related to the cause of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) which still has an RNA chain that mutates faster than DNA. World Health Organization (WHO) said that until July 26 2020 the number of people infected with the virus were 15,785,641 people. From the data, Indonesia ranked 24th with 97,286 positive cases and 4,714 people died. The data shows that Indonesia is higher than China as the country of origin of this virus began to be found. Indonesia implemented several policies in the fields of law, health and economics to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak. The Ministry of Health issued a regulation derived from PP21 / 20, namely Minister of Health Regulation No. 9 of 2020 concerning Large Scale Limitation Guidelines (PSBB). Muhammadiyah as a social organization through the One Muhammadiyah One Response (OMOR) program in handling coviders formed the Muhmmadiyah Covid-19 Command Center (MCCC) team to contribute to the prevention of covid-19 transmission that had been formed up to the Regional level. In addition to providing care for Covid-19 patients through Muhamamdiyah and Aisyah hospitals, MCCC also prepared the community to be prepared to face the Covid-19 pandemic. In Magelang regency, up to 27 July, PDP recorded 42 deaths, positive confirmation died 6 people and confirmed 7 people were treated. Therefore the importance of community preparedness to prevent Covid-19 transmission. Method: this research uses a quantitative approach with descriptive type. This research uses a survey method with questionnaire technique. Respondents in this study were 100 people. The results of this study indicate that residents of Muhamamdiyah in Magelang District 89% of respondents have received co-19 prevention information from MCCC, 59% showed understanding of the information provided, applying health protocols with 92% hand washing habits, doing 88% exercise, habit using masks 93 %, keep a distance of 98%, use hand sanitizer 86%, maintain a 96% sneezing ethic, able to manage stress 71%, and consume nutritious food 76%

scholarly journals BERBAGAI UPAYA PENCEGAHAN COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 527
Author(s):  
Yuggo Afrianto ◽  
Novita Br Ginting ◽  
Indriyawati Indriyawati ◽  
Kalih Puspita Dewi ◽  
Muhamad Rizky Fahrezi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Google Scholar ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Literature Reviews ◽  
The Face ◽  
Health Organization

Covid-19 is a new type of virus that was discovered in Wuhan, Hubei, China, in 2019. The new kind of virus was given the name coronavirus disease-2019, shortened to Covid-19. WHO declared this virus a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Various parties tried to in the prevention and control of COVID-19. However, the number of references offered and the variance of a policy in a study create problems again. People are confused to understand what efforts are suitable or recommended with trustworthy truths. Hence, this study uses Systematic Literature Reviews to find the most recommended efforts with reliable study sources, namely the Scopus journal and Google Scholar. The results of this study provide recommendations to the public about the efforts to prevent Covid-19, to reduce the spread of Covid-19, especially in Indonesia. 125 relevant journals were successfully reviewed, resulting in 37 Covid-19 prevention efforts. Based on the ranking method, 10 efforts are widely recommended in journals, namely: Social distancing, Quarantine/lockdown/LSSR (Large-scale social restrictions), WFH (Work From Home), Washing hands, Self-isolation, Wearing masks, Using handsanitizer, Spraying disinfectants, Maintaining immunity, and Not touch the face. The exciting thing that was also found in the research was that there were efforts that were not only built based on medical science but were also associated with beliefs such as Sawen Installation and Religious Ceremonies. Keywords: Covid-19; SLR; prevention of Covid-19. AbstrakCovid-19 merupakan virus jenis baru yang ditemukan di Wuhan, Hubei, China pada tahun 2019, virus ini diberi nama corona virus disease-2019 yang disingkat menjadi Covid-19, WHO (World Health Organization) menyatakan virus ini sebagai suatu pandemi pada 11 Maret 2020. Berbagai pihak berupaya dalam pencegahan dan penanggulangan Covid-19. Namun banyaknya referensi yang ditawarkan dan ketidak selarasan suatu kebijakkan dalam suatu studi, membuat permasalahan kembali di mana masyarakat bingung untuk mengerti upaya apa saja yang baik atau direkomendasikan dengan kebenaran yang dapat dipercaya.  Untuk menangani masalah tersebut maka dalam penelitian ini menggunakan Systematic Literature Reviews untuk mencari upaya yang paling banyak direkomendasikan dengan sumber studi yang terpercaya, yaitu jurnal Scopus dan Google Scholar. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan rekomendasi kepada masyarakat tentang apa saja upaya pencegahan Covid-19, untuk mengurangi penyebaran Covid-19 khususnya di Indonesia. 125 jurnal yang relevan berhasil direview, menghasilkan 37 Upaya pencegahan Covid-19. Berdasarkan metode pemeringkatan mendapatkan 10 upaya yang banyak direkomendasi dalam jurnal, yaitu: Social distancing, Karantina/lockdown/PSBB (Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar), WFH (Work From Home), Mencuci tangan, Isolasi diri, Memakai masker, Memakai handsanitizer, Menyemprotkan disenfektan, Menjaga imun, dan Tidak menyentuh wajah. Hal menarik yang didapatkan juga dalam penelitian ternyata terdapat upaya yang tidak hanya dibangun berdasarkan ilmu medis, namun juga dikaitkan dengan kepercayaan seperti, Pemasangan Sawen dan Upacara Keagamaan.

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hasan ◽  
Y. Nasution ◽  
H. Susanto ◽  
E.R.M. Putri ◽  
V.R. Tjahjono ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Restriction ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThis paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (ℛt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by ℛt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Rational Design of Peptide Vaccines for the Highly Lethal Nipah and Hendra Viruses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumanta Dey ◽  
Proyasha Roy ◽  
Tathagata Dutta ◽  
Ashesh Nandy ◽  
Subhash C Basak
Keyword(s):  
Rational Design ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Nipah Virus ◽  
Peptide Vaccine ◽  
Surface Proteins ◽  
World Health ◽  
Peptide Vaccines ◽  
Design Development ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThe Nipah virus disease is a lethal infection that has led to 40% to 75% fatalities in Malaysia, Bangladesh and India. The reports of human-to-human transmission documented in Bangladesh has raised the specter of pandemic potential and has caused the World Health Organization to list the Nipah virus as one of the pathogens to be considered for development of drugs and vaccines on urgent basis, neither of which exist against the Nipah virus as of now, although many proposals have been made and trials initiated. Given that there are established country-specific differences in the virus’ effects and fatalities, meeting the sudden need for a vaccine in case of an epidemic will require design, development and preparation for a peptide vaccine. Thus, we propose a protocol for creating peptide vaccines that can be tailor-made for these specific countries, an approach which is being advocated for the first time. Here, we analyze the surface proteins, Fusion protein and Glycoprotein, of the strains currently affecting the three countries on a large scale and determine the specific country-based epitope differences.

scholarly journals Recent Discovery and Development on SARS-CoV-2: A Review of Current Literature

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V Deepak Bamola ◽  
Rama Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Central China ◽  
World Health ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Origin and spread of current novel coronavirus raised serious concerns among stakeholders around the globe. Different speculations which may unfold the mystery in the future are taking roots, but now there is no globally acceptable opinion about the origin and spread of this novel coronavirus. It is reported that Wuhan city of Hubei Province of central China was the epicenter of this outbreak of novel coronavirus. However, initial inadequate preventive measures allowed the infection to cross the borders of China and that pull the world into a drastic public health and economic crisis. This novel coronavirus disease now named as COVID-19 by World Health Organization (WHO) and the responsible coronavirus is named as ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)’. The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is alarming even after five months of inception and WHO further warns the world to be prepared for more intense spread of COVID-19. Different diagnostic tools to detect SARS-CoV-2 are being used around the globe, but the identification of asymptomatic carriers of the disease is a serious challenge in countering the COVID-19 pandemic. There is no specific treatment available, only preventive, symptomatic and supportive treatments are being used for clinical management of COVID-19. The available knowledge is limited therefore any escalation of information on the disease will help to combat with this global challenge of COVID-19. In this review, we have discussed and summarized the available multi-factorial information and recent updates on the SARS-CoV-2 which can support future research and may help in the strategic management of currentCOVID-19 pandemic. The articles available online before 30 April 2020 on bioRxiv, medRxiv, ChemRxiv, Google scholar and PubMed have been assessed for compilation of this review. Information on the official portal of WHO, CDC, ICMR etc were also assessed and used with due credit.

scholarly journals Novel Coronavirus in Nigeria: Epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of the pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oyelola A. Adegboye ◽  
Adeshina I. Adekunle ◽  
Ezra Gayawan
Keyword(s):  
Doubling Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
World Health ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Epidemiological Analysis ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractBackgroundOn December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus in China that was later named COVID-19. On March 11, 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on February 27, 2020.MethodsThis study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria quantifying. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector) and adjusted for disease importation.FindingsBy April 11, 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.05 – 0.10) with doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28 – 15.18). Separately for travel related and local cases the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using three-weekly window while adjusting for travel related cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65 – 8.41) at day 22 (March 19, 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% CrI: 3.83 –7.88) at day 25 (March 22, 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value at April 11, 2020 was 1.42 (95% CI: 1.26 – 1.58).InterpretationThese 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.FundingNone

The novel coronavirus and its possible treatment by vaccines, therapeutics and drug delivery systems: Current status and future perspectives

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 54-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhurya Kadavakollu ◽  
Veera Venkata Satyanarayana Reddy Karri ◽  
Kuppusamy Gowthamarajan ◽  
Arun Radhakrishnan ◽  
Dhanabal Palanisamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
World Health ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

In the mid-end of December 2019, several cases of pneumonia outbreak of unknown cause and etiology were identified in Wuhan City of Hubei province in China, a city with a population of over 11 million.Till date(April 2020) around 1,051,635 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) and 56,985 confirmed deaths have been reported according to COVID-19 Situation Report – 75 by WHO. On 7th January 2020, the causative agent was identified and named consequently as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) from throat swab samples. Later, on 12th January 2020, this coronavirus was named as 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by World Health Organization (WHO) and in 11th February 2020,it has been declared the epidemic disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) as it is spreading rapidly from its origin in Wuhan City to the rest of the world. In this context, the current review provides a landscape of the novel Corona Virus including its origin, transmission, epidemiology, drugs and vaccines in clinical trials for better understanding to the reads and peoples the status and future perspectives of this pandemic disease

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